Special report: the economic impact of the Arab Spring issue 198 | september 2012 www.prospect-magazine.co.uk september 2012 | £4.50 $6.99 €6.90 Extinction End of the extinction: the end of the third party? third party? Britain’s Empire strikes back kwasi kwarteng Mo and me: Olympic idol ismail einashe 9 A$10.95 A$10.95 Israel’s Orthodox danger 1359-5024 ISSN gershom gorenberg 771359 NZ$12.50 US$6.99 US$6.99 NZ$12.50 It’s Florida, stupid 502057 diane roberts € 6.90 Can$7.99 6.90 40 year old teenagers 09 grayson perry The C-Class Coupé AMG Sport. From just £299* a month. AMG body styling and 18" AMG alloy wheels, bi-xenon headlamps, Attention Assist and when you’ve finished driving, there’s Parktronic with Advanced Parking Guidance. £299* can sometimes go an awfully long way. Visit mercedes-benz.co.uk/offers A Daimler Brand *For Business Users only. Advance payment applies. Official government fuel consumption figures in mpg (litres per 100km) for the C-Class Coupé range: urban: 15.5(18.2)-44.8(6.3), extra urban: 33.6(8.4)-65.7(4.3), combined: 23.5(12.0)-55.4(5.1). CO2 emissions: 280-133 g/km. Model featured is a C180 BlueEFFICIENCY AMG Sport Coupé at £32,085.00 on-the-road with optional panoramic glass sunroof at £1,350.00 and optional metallic paint at £645.00 (on-the-road price includes VAT, delivery, 12 months’ Road Fund Licence, number plates, first registration fee and fuel). *All payments subject to VAT: Finance based on a C 180 BlueEfficiency AMG Sport Coupé with metallic paint on a 36 month (6+35 profile) Contract Hire agreement, excluding maintenance, with an advance payment of £1,794.00. Based on 10,000 miles per annum. Excess mileage charges may apply. Rental includes Road Fund Licence for the duration of the contract. Written quotations available on request including alternative contract lengths and mileages. Guarantees and indemnities may be required. Available on C-Class Coupé models ordered/credit approved between 1 July and 30 September 2012, registered by 31 December 2012 excluding C 63 AMG models. Offers subject to availability. Offers cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. Some combinations of features/options may not be available. Please contact your Mercedes-Benz Retailer for availability. Credit provided subject to status by Mercedes-Benz Financial Services UK Limited, MK15 8BA. Prices correct at time of going to press 07/12. 641611-2_MER_Prospect_0109_FP.indd641611-2_MER_Prospectt_0109_FP.indd 1 09/08/201209/08/2012 11:2911:29 prospect september 2012 1 Foreword I agree with Nick 2 bloomsbury place, London wc1a 2qa Publishing 020 7255 1281 Editorial 020 7255 1344 Fax 020 7255 1279 Email [email protected] [email protected] Website www.prospect-magazine.co.uk Editorial Editor and chief executive bronwen maddox Editor at large David Goodhart Deputy editor James elwes the polls that YouGov has carried out for Prospect are stark Politics editor James macintyre Books editor David Wolf (p22). As peter Kellner writes, if the Liberal Democrats Creative director David Killen Production editor ollie cussen faced a general election now, they would have only about 10 Web assistant Akanksha Awal Web intern Annalies Winny MPs, compared to 57 now. the present parliamentary Editorial assistants Nicole muir, emily chan, strength reflects the euphoria of the spring of 2010, when Nick renaud-Komiya Publishing britain’s third party seemed to be in striking range of the President & co-founder Derek coombs other two. Nick clegg’s performance in the televised debate, Publisher David Hanger Circulation marketing director Jamie Wren which prompted Gordon brown’s refrain “I agree with Digital marketing: tim De La salle Advertising sales director Nick,” and inspired a thousand lapel badges, seemed to have Iain Adams, tel: 020 7255 1934 pulled off a transformation that in politics is priceless—of Advertising sales manager Dan Jefferson, tel: 020 7255 1934 making his party sound like the future, and the others like the past. Advertising sales chris Anson, tel: 01424 838 855 Now, there are mutterings about whether to ditch clegg for Vince cable, quit the Finance manager pauline Joy coalition, or split the party. they are wrong. clegg is right, or at least, he has been Editorial advisory board David cannadine, clive cowdery, Ac more right than wrong. As David steel has put it, “because of our commitment to Grayling, peter Hall, John Kay, peter Kellner, Nader mousavizadeh, toby mundy, robin proportional representation, an unwritten attachment to the principle of coalition Niblett, Jean seaton is in the party’s DNA.” that means compromise. to argue, as Dick Leonard does Associate editors tom chatfield, James crabtree, Andy (p27), that the party, with its centre of gravity on the left, should never have done Davis, edward Docx, David edmonds, sam a deal with the conservatives is to deny it the influence that it has had, and to Knight, Ian Irvine, sam Leith, emran mian, elizabeth pisani, Wendell steavenson, exaggerate the difference of views inb ritish politics about how to handle the deficit. James Woodall Judged by the changes the Lib Dems have secured in conservative policy, they Contributing editors Hephzibah Anderson, philip ball, Anthony have done far better than the polls would suggest. true, clegg’s reversal on tuition Dworkin, Josef Joffe, Anatole Kaletsky, michael Lind, Joy Lo Dico, erik tarloff fees was a bad call, a gratuitous rebuff to his supporters. He runs the risk of being Annual subscription rates remembered mainly for the things that have gone wrong. but he can claim solid UK £49; Student £27 Europe £55; Student £32.50 achievements on income tax for poorer people, on pensions, on bank regulation, and Rest of the World £59.50; Student £35 on resisting conservative impulses to curtail civil liberties. prospect subscriptions, 800 Guillat Avenue, Kent science park, sittingbourne, me9 8gu And reform of the House of Lords, where clegg has been mocked across the Tel 0844 249 0486; 44(0)1795 414 957 Fax 01795 414 555 board? true, again, it failed to resonate. but he is right on the central point. more Email [email protected] than a decade into the 21st century, the present arrangements are an embarrassment Website www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/subscribe cheques payable to prospect publishing for any country which claims a place in the modern world. britain’s olympic Ltd. subscription refunds must be made in writing to prospect within four weeks of a euphoria (see mo and me, p28) sits oddly with a system which awards legislative new order or renewal, and are subject to an power by party patronage and inheritance. administration charge of £15. No refunds are paid on quarterly subscriptions. It is easy in britain, with its long tradition of democracy, to dismiss those who the views represented in this magazine are urge an improvement, accusing them of ignoring more urgent problems. but that not necessarily those of prospect publishing is too cavalier. even apparently vigorous democracies can come under threat, old Ltd. best endeavours have been taken in all cases to represent faithfully the views of all as well as new. that is a theme of Gershom Gorenberg’s report on Israel’s orthodox contributors and interviewees. the publisher accepts no responsibility for errors, population (p36), as well as of our report on the economic impact of the Arab spring omissions or the consequences thereof. (p63). meanwhile, our coverage of china (see “copycat china,” p44, and Letters, Newstrade distribution comag specialist, tavistock road, p11) is infused with warnings of the limit that political failings put on its future. West Drayton, ub7 7qe, tel: 01895 433716 the olympics opening and closing ceremonies celebrated the best of britain, Images Cover image: AFp/Getty Images an indulgent tumble of the National Health service, taxis, spice Girls, and well- Cartoons by: Nick, Nick Downes, PC Vey, Joseph Farris, rigby, chris madden, the preserved rock stars. they might have included britain’s third political party too. surreal mccoy, bill proud, paul Wood It may be the butt of national jokes but it is also the custodian of the country’s core Additional design: Jennifer owens, mike Kenny liberal values. the polls suggest that extinction is conceivable; that would be a sad ISSN: 13595024 reward for the courage of forming the coalition, and would be britain’s loss. prospect september 2012 3 Contents September 2012 This month Features Life 4 If I ruled the world grayson perry 20 Death by coalition? 70 Food phonies 6 Recommends Is it game over for the Lib Dems? Have the foodies had their day? 8 Diary peter kellner hephzibah anderson 10 Letters What should they do? james macintyre & james elwes 28 Mo and me Opinions british somalis must integrate. 12 The dangers of haste ismail einashe Against short-term thinking. andrew haldane 13 Sensing the unreal psychosis is widespread. lucy maddox 14 Data means health We need digital medical records. 72 Leith on life mark walport Attack of the moths. sam leith 16 Icelandic squall 73 Wine the eU should stay firm on fishing. the art of wine making. stephen tindale barry smith Arts & Books 74 Neverending stories the new passion for fairy tales. adam kirsch 32 It’s Florida, stupid 18 Revelatory Games Will the sunshine state once again An American tribute. decide the presidential election? paul walker bledsoe diane roberts plus stephen collins’s cartoon strip. 36 An Orthodox challenge Israel’s new strain. Science & technology gershom gorenberg 58 Riddled with irregularity 44 Copycat China Why are languages so different? piracy or liberation? philip ball yu hua plus China, bamboozled nick carn 77 Hollow ring of bronze sculpture’s heavy obsession.