National Risk Analysis 2014 DISASTERS THAT MAY AFFECT NORWEGIAN SOCIETY Issued by: Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection (DSB) 2014 ISBN: 978-82-7768-368-3 (PDF) Cover and design: Dinamo Printed by: Erik Tanche Nilssen AS FLOODING IN WESTERN NORWAY The Flåm River spilled over its banks due to large amounts of precipitation at the end of October 2014, causing a great deal of damage to buildings and properties. Around 200 persons were evacuated from their homes. Photo: NTB/SCANPIX NTB/Scanpix PHOTO: CONTENTS Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 01 Aim and content ......................................................................................................................................................................... 13 1.1 Scope ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 14 1.2 Use of the National Risk Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 15 02 Risk 19 2.1 Key terms ................................................................................................................................................................................ 20 2.2 Sources of uncertainty ................................................................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Malicious acts ...................................................................................................................................................................... 23 03 Method and process ................................................................................................................................................................ 25 NATURAL EVENTS ............................................................................................................................................................. 31 04 Extreme weather ...................................................................................................................................................................... 33 4.1 "Storm in Inner Oslo Fjord" scenario ......................................................................................................................... 36 4.2 "Long-Term Power Rationing" scenario .................................................................................................................. 40 05 Flooding .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 5.1 "Flooding in Eastern Norway" scenario .................................................................................................................... 48 06 Landslides and avalanches ................................................................................................................................................... 53 6.1 "Rockslide at Åkneset with Advance Warning" scenario .................................................................................. 58 6.2 "Quick Clay Landslide in a City» scenario ................................................................................................................. 62 07 Infectious diseases ...................................................................................................................................................................69 7.1 "Pandemic in Norway" scenario .................................................................................................................................... 72 08 Forest and wilderness fires ................................................................................................................................................. 77 8.1 "Three Simultaneous Forest Fires» scenario ....................................................................................................... 80 09 Space weather ........................................................................................................................................................................... 85 9.1 "100-Year Solar Storm" scenario .............................................................................................................................. 88 10 Volcanic activity ........................................................................................................................................................................ 93 10.1 Long-Term Volcanic Eruption in Iceland ................................................................................................................. 96 11 Earthquake new!..................................................................................................................................................................... 103 11.1 Earthquake in a City new! ........................................................................................................................................... 106 2 NATIONAL RISK ANALYSIS 2014 DSB CONTENTS MAJOR ACCIDENTS .............................................................................................................................................................................. 115 12 Hazardous substances ......................................................................................................................................................... 117 12.1 "Gas Emission from an Industrial Plant" scenario ......................................................................................... 120 12.2 "Fire at an Oil Terminal in a City" scenario .......................................................................................................... 124 13 Nuclear accidents .................................................................................................................................................................. 129 13.1 "Nuclear Accident at a Reprocessing Plant" scenario ................................................................................ 132 14 Offshore accidents ................................................................................................................................................................ 137 14.1 "Oil and Gas Blowout on a Drilling Rig" scenario .............................................................................................. 140 15 Transport accidents new! ................................................................................................................................................... 145 15.1 "Collision at Sea Off the Coast of Western Norway" scenario ............................................................... 152 15.2 "Tunnel Fire» scenario new! ....................................................................................................................................... 156 MALICIOUS ACTS ................................................................................................................................................................................. 165 16 Terrorism .................................................................................................................................................................................... 167 16.1 "Terrorist Attack in a City" scenario ..................................................................................................................... 170 17 Security policy crises ........................................................................................................................................................... 175 17.1 "Strategic Attack» scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 178 18 Cyberspace ............................................................................................................................................................................... 183 18.1 "Cyber Attack on Financial Infrastructure" scenario .................................................................................. 186 18.2 "Cyber Attack on Electronic Communications Infrastructure" new! .................................................... 190 19 Overall risk analysis and vulnerabilities ....................................................................................................................... 203 19.1 Overall presentation of analysis results ............................................................................................................ 204 19.2 Assessment of vulnerabilities in systems affected by the events ......................................................... 209 19.3 New opportunities and new challenges in the Norway of the future .................................................... 211 References .............................................................................................................................................................................................