November 17, 2020 DEMOCRACY & ELECTIONS AGENDA Welcome U.S. Election & its Impact in Central America Guest Speaker | Eric Jacobstein, Senior Policy Advisor, House Committee on Foreign Affairs Threats to Democracy in El Salvador Guest Speaker | José Luis Sanz, Editor, El Faro Guest Speaker | Celia Medrano, Independent Human Rights Expert & Consultant Open Discussion Document Archive & Feedback Loop December Meeting 1 November 17, 2020 CONTEXT Part I U.S. ELECTIONS & ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON CENTRAL AMERICA Key Discussion Points The Biden administration will likely make significant changes to U.S. policy in Central America. From ending current migration agreements to emphasizing good governance and fighting corruption, the new administration will generally seek to address th efactors driving irregular migration—like insecurity and inequality—in the region, instead of by reacting by mostly closing the U.S. border to Central American asylum and migration. The new administration will also prioritize diplomatic reengagement driven mostly by the Department of State with the Department of Homeland Security returning to a more traditional role. What role can foundations play—either directly or through grantmaking— to ensure that transparency, accountability, respect for human rights, environmental protection, sound social policy, and the voice of civil society is central to the strategy? Background on Biden’s Role in Central America President-elect Biden was the point-person for the United States’ relations with Central America during the second Obama administration (2012-2016). • He led the U.S. response to the surge of unaccompanied Central Read the U.S. Strategy for American minors in 2014 and helped develop the U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central Engagement in Central America. He secured bipartisan congressional America here. support and funding to help implement the strategy. • The Obama Administration encouraged the governments of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to develop their own plan with the assistance of the Inter-American Development Bank. This plan is known as the Alliance for Prosperity. Note: The U.S. Strategy and Alliance for Prosperity were complimentary but not identical. • Biden insisted that Guatemala’s President Otto Pérez Molina renew the CICIG’s mandate in 2015. 2 Possible Future Biden Policy in Central America 1) Undo Trump immigration policies • End family separation Read Biden’s platform regarding Central America • End MPP policy here. • End public charge rule • Restore access to asylum (incl. for domestic violence victims) • Redirect resources to end/limit metering; increase humanitarian assistance at border • End prolonged detention • Reinstate DACA & create roadmap to citizenship • End travel bans • Review TPS decisions • Propose “regional resettlement solution” (in coordination with Canada, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras) • Reform visa program for temp workers–amongst other policies to reform the immigration system 2) Develop a comprehensive four-year, $4 billion regional strategy to address factors driving migration from Central America • Puts combating corruption at the heart of U.S. policy in Central America and will require “significant, concrete, and verifiable reforms”; will invest in civil society orgs; recognizes “central role of women” in development • Funding will come (i.e. be redirected) from DHS detention budget 3) Mobilize private investment in the region 4) Improve security and rule of law • Support reforms at national level to fight corruption in security forces & strengthen judiciary • Support violence reduction & job training programs to prevent youth from joining gangs • Provide technical assistance to prosecutors & judges to fight financial crimes • Ensuring access to justice & support for domestic violence victims 5) Address endemic corruption • Support existing anti-corruption mechanisms and create regional commission to fight corruption and build more robust domestic institutions • Revoke visas & freeze assets of corrupt individuals; increase DOJ & Treasury attachés at embassies • Create new office at Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) to investigate Northern Triangle corruption • Prioritize additional funding for specialized anti-corruption training for prosecutors 3 6) Prioritize poverty reduction and economic development • Address food insecurity • Address climate crisis • Invest in reintegrating returning migrants • Prioritize (job) training for youth & provide scholarships to U.S. institutions • Support tax reforms and enforcement via USAID & Treasury assistance Biden and the Future of the Americas Biden’s former top advisor for Latin America, and former Deputy Assistant Article: “Joe Biden and the Secretary of State for Central America, Juan González, argues a Biden Future of the Americas” — Administration policy will restore U.S. partnership with the region to address read here. the root causes of migration such as economic and social problems, and fighting corruption. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Central America Funding for the U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America by Country: FY2016-FY2020 Report: U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America: Policy Issues for Congress—read here. 4 U.S. Foreign Assistance to El Salvador El Salvador Foreign Aid Trendlines 2001-2020 El Salvador Foreign Aid Trendlines 2001-2020 Source: USAID Foreign Assistance Database 5 Part II THREATS TO DEMOCRACY IN EL SALVADOR Key Discussion Points President Bukele has shown authoritarian, anti-democratic tendencies since he took office: cozying up to the military, attacking independent press, and clashing with the courts. He enjoys strong public support, but does not currently have political support in the National Assembly. This could change dramatically after midterm congressional and mayoral elections in February 2021. Nuevas Ideas, the party that Bukele founded, and its allies could win a super-majority in the Assembly. How will this affect democracy and civil society in El Salvador, and how might this impact foundations’ grantmaking? Who is Nayib Bukele? • Nayib Bukele was inaugurated as President of El Salvador on June 1, 2019 (after elections on Feb. 3, 2019) • The first President to be elected in the first round, and he did not represent any of the traditional political parties (ARENA and FMLN) that had exchanged power since the end of the civil conflict in 1992 • Served as Mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán (2012-2015), and was elected Mayor of San Salvador (2015-2018) as an FMLN-coalition candidate Article: The FMLN expels • He was expelled from FMLN in October 2017 Nayib Bukele—read here. Some Notable Moments in Bukele’s First Year • Reduction of homicides: Although the homicide rate has consistently and notably declined since 2015’s high of 104 per 100,000 inhabitants, El Salvador continues to have one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Since 2015, the per-capita annual homicide rate has fallen from 81/100,000 in 2016, to 60 in 2017, 50 in 2018, and 36 in 2019. 6 Number of Daily Homicides in 2019 Article: Nayib Bukele’s military stunt raises alarming memories in El Salvador—read here. Article: El Salvador president, court clash over virus measures—read here. Article: El Salvador supreme court rebukes president’s decree to reopen economy— read here. Article: Bukele Has Been Negotiating with MS-13 for a Reduction in Homicides and Electoral Support—read here. • “9F” – Bukele stormed the Legislative Assembly accompanied by the Article: El Salvador’s Hipster Salvadoran military on Sunday Feb. 9, 2020 while it was not in session. President Is Attacking the He demanded the Assembly reconvene to approve a loan guarantee Media—read here. he had previously requested and which the Assembly had already rejected. • Clashes between Bukele and the Constitutional Chamber of the Article: “El Faro” of El Salvador Denounces Supreme Court, after the Court declared several Bukele policies Bukele’s Harassment—read unconstitutional; and Bukele’s COVID-19 Response Is Undermining the here. Rule of Law in El Salvador • El Faro reported on negotiations between the government and the MS- Article: The Bukele Clan that 13 gang, in which the government offered improved prison conditions Rules with Nayib—read here. for gang leaders in exchange for reductions in homicides, as well as political support in the midterm elections • Bukele has launched several attacks on independent media, and has accused El Faro of financial malfeasance Article: All the President’s Trolls: Real and Fake Twitter • There are indications of nepotism and/or corruption in Bukele’s inner Fights in El Salvador—read circle here. • Bukele has employed a “governing by Twitter” style • Yet, Bukele enjoys broad public support Article: Nuevas Ideas sigue adelante en intención de voto—read here. 7 Nayib Bukele Approval Ratings What’s at Stake in February 2021? President Bukele has been governing without political support in Congress. That is very likely to change in February, when El Salvador will hold midterm elections for the National Assembly and local offices. Given Bukele’s enormous popularity, his (new) party Nuevas Ideas is projected to make large gains in Congress. A coalition comprised of Nuevas Ideas and GANA could gain up to 70 seats. That would not only consolidate Bukele’s power across the executive and legislative branches, but would also provide Bukele the votes needed to appoint a new Attorney General and five new members of the Supreme Court. • Details on El Salvador’s midterm elections on February