AIRPORT MASTER PLAN DEMAND FORECAST UPDATE MINETA-SAN JOSE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AIRPORT MASTER PLAN DEMAND FORECAST UPDATE HNTB Corporation June 2, 2017 AIRPORT MASTER PLAN DEMAND FORECAST UPDATE Table of Contents Page 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Economic Trends .............................................................................................................................. 2 2.1 Definition of Air Trade Area .......................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Demographic and Economic Growth ............................................................................................ 2 3 Historical Airport Activity ................................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Passenger Originations ................................................................................................................. 7 3.2 Passenger Enplanements .............................................................................................................. 7 3.3 Aircraft Operations ....................................................................................................................... 8 4 Forecast Assumptions ...................................................................................................................... 9 4.1 Unconstrained Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 10 4.2 Economic Growth ........................................................................................................................ 10 4.3 Air Fares and Yield ....................................................................................................................... 10 4.4 Taxes and Fees ............................................................................................................................ 10 4.5 Load Factor .................................................................................................................................. 11 4.6 Fleet Mix ..................................................................................................................................... 11 4.7 Gating Assumptions .................................................................................................................... 12 4.8 Constraints at SFO and OAK ........................................................................................................ 12 4.9 Regulatory Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 13 4.10 Future Security Environment .................................................................................................. 13 4.11 International Political Environment ........................................................................................ 13 4.12 Environmental Factors ............................................................................................................ 13 5 Passenger Forecasts ....................................................................................................................... 13 5.1 Domestic Passenger Originations Forecast without Diversion from SFO and OAK .................... 15 5.2 International Passenger Originations Forecast ........................................................................... 16 5.3 Passenger Enplanements without Diversion from SFO and OAK ............................................... 17 5.4 Forecast of Diversion from Other Bay Area Airports .................................................................. 19 6 Forecasts of Passenger Aircraft Departures .................................................................................. 22 7 Forecasts of Air Cargo Activity ....................................................................................................... 23 7.1 Domestic Air Cargo ..................................................................................................................... 23 7.2 International Air Cargo ................................................................................................................ 24 7.3 Air Cargo Operations ................................................................................................................... 24 7.4 Air Cargo Summary ..................................................................................................................... 24 8 Forecasts of GA and Military Activity............................................................................................. 25 Technical Report 1 pg. i 6-2-2017 AIRPORT MASTER PLAN DEMAND FORECAST UPDATE 8.1 General Aviation ......................................................................................................................... 25 8.2 Military ........................................................................................................................................ 27 9 Landed Weight Forecast ................................................................................................................ 28 10 Peak Activity Forecast .................................................................................................................... 28 11 Summary of Forecasts ................................................................................................................... 29 APPENDICES APPENDIX A: SOCIOECONOMIC DATA AND PROJECTIONS ........................................................................A-1 APPENDIX B: AIR FARES AND YIELD ........................................................................................................... B-1 APPENDIX C: HISTORICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY .......................................................................................... C-1 APPENDIX D: SJC PASSENGER FORECAST WITHOUT DIVERSION FROM SFO AND OAK ........................... D-1 APPENDIX E: SJC PASSENGER FORECAST WITH DIVERSION FROM SFO AND OAK .................................... E-1 APPENDIX F: SJC PASSENGER AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST ............................................................ F-1 APPENDIX G: SJC AIR CARGO FORECAST................................................................................................... G-1 APPENDIX H: SJC GENERAL AVIATION FORECAST ..................................................................................... H-1 APPENDIX I: SJC MILITARY FORECAST ......................................................................................................... I-1 APPENDIX J: LANDED WEIGHT FORECAST .................................................................................................. J-1 APPENDIX K: PEAK ACTIVITY FORECASTS ................................................................................................... K-1 APPENDIX L: FLEET MIX SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... L-1 APPENDIX M: COMPARISON WITH TAF ................................................................................................... M-1 List of Figures Page Figure 1 Historical and Projected Population: SJC Air Trade Area .......................................................... 4 Figure 2 Historical and Projected Employment: SJC Air Trade Area ....................................................... 4 Figure 3 Historical and Projected Per Capita Income: SJC Air Trade Area .............................................. 5 Figure 4 Historical and Projected Total Personal Income: SJC Air Trade Area ....................................... 6 Figure 5 Historical Domestic Passenger Originations at SJC, SFO, and OAK ........................................... 7 Figure 2 Historical and Projected 7-County Income ............................................................................. 10 Figure 6 SJC Historical and Projected Fares and Fees ........................................................................... 11 Figure 7 SJC Passenger Forecast Approach ........................................................................................... 14 Figure 8 SJC Scheduled Revenue Enplanement Forecast with Diversions from SFO and OAK ............. 20 Figure 9 SJC General Aviation Based Aircraft Forecast ......................................................................... 26 Figure 10 SJC General Aviation Aircraft Operations Forecast ................................................................. 27 Figure 11 Summary of Aircraft Landed Weight Forecasts ...................................................................... 28 Figure 12 Summary of Aircraft Operations Forecasts ............................................................................. 30 Technical Report 1 pg. ii 6-2-2017 AIRPORT MASTER PLAN DEMAND FORECAST UPDATE List of Tables Page Table 1 San Jose Air Trade Area: Economic Projections ........................................................................ 6 Table 2 Historical Passenger Enplanements at SJC ................................................................................ 8 Table 3 Historical Aircraft Operations at SJC ......................................................................................... 9 Table 4 Enplanement Forecast (without diversion from SFO and OAK) ............................................. 18 Table