Pakistan in the 21st Century Vision 2030 Planning Commission Government of Pakistan Islamabad August 2007 Copyright © 2007 Vision 2030 Planning Commission Government of Pakistan Material in this publication may be freely qu oted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint. This publication is available from: Government of Pakistan Planning Commission Pak Secretariat, Block – P Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: + 92 51 921 4464 [email protected] www.planningcommission.gov.pk Allah will not change the state of a nation, unless they first bring about the change within themselves Al Qura’n Sura Al Ra’ad, Ayat 11 Vision 2030 Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan through rapid and sustainable development in a resource constrained economy by deploying knowledge inputs Planning Commission 1. Mr. Shaukat Aziz Chairman Prime Minister 2. Engr. Dr. M. Akram Sheikh Deputy Chairman 3. Mr. Ghiasuddin Ahmed Secretary/Member Coordination 4. Mr. Ejaz Rahim Member (Social Sectors) 5. Engr. Muhammad Zubair Member (Imp & Monitoring) 6. Engr. Dr. Asad Ali Shah Member (Infrastructure) 7. Dr. Shaukat Hameed Khan Member (Sc. & Tech) 8. Dr. Kauser A. Malik Member (Agri. & Food) 9. Mr. Muhammad Jalil Minhas Acting Member (Energy) Abbreviations AEDB Alternate Energy Development Board BRIC Quartet of Brazil, Russia, India, China ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations CCBs Citizen Community Boards CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research CMS Compact Muon Solenoid DSL Digital Subscriber Line ECO Economic Cooperation Organization EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FDI Foreign Direct Investment FFS Farmer Field School FTAs Foreign Trade Agreements GAP Good Agricultural Practice GDP Gross Domestic Product GJ Giga Joule GMP Good Manufacturing Practice GNP Gross National Product GoP Government of Pakistan HEC Higher Education Commission IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICT Information and Communications Technology IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPRs Intellectual Property Rights IT Information Technology ITER International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor kmph Kilometers per hour KWH Kilowatt Hour LHC Large Hadron Collider MAF Million Acre Feet MDGs Millennium Development Goals MINFAL Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock MNCs Multinational Companies MTDF Medium Term Development Framework MTOE Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent MW Mega Watt NARS National Agriculture Research Systems NCSW National Commission on the Status of Women Vision 2030, Planning Commission NIC Newly Industrialized Countries NPDEW National Policy for Development and Empowerment of Women NTC National Trade Corridor NWFP North-Western Frontier Province OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer PBR Plant Breeder Rights PNSC Pakistan National Shipping Corporation PPP Purchasing Power Parity PSDP Public Sector Development Program PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PS Public Sector PSL SMS Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey PV Photovoltaic R&D Research and Development RTT Round Trip Time SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SMEs Small & Medium Enterprises SPS Sanitary & Phytosanitary T&D Transmission and Distribution TB Tuberculosis TCP Transmission Control Protocol TFP Total Factor Productivity TRIPS Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights USD US Dollar UN United Nations VOs Village Organizations WIPO World Intellectual Property Organization WLL Wireless Local Loop WTO World Trade Organization Vision 2030, Planning Commission Table of Contents Page Vision of the Quaid v Message of the President of Pakistan vii Foreword by the Prime Minister of Pakistan ix Preface xi Acknowledgement xiii Executive Summary xv Chapters 1 Introduction 1 The Consensus 2 2 Global Imperatives: Challenges and Opportunities 5 2.1 Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan 5 3 The Basic Goal: A Just and Sustainable Society 9 3.1 When is a Society Just? 9 3.2 The Citizen in 2030 11 3.3 The Population Challenge: Demographic Transition and Health 15 3.4 A Healthy Nation 20 3.5 A Home of One’s Own 24 3.6 End of Poverty 25 3.7 The Pakistani Women 27 3.8 The Quality of Life 29 3.9 Inter-generational Equity and Sustainable Development 30 3.10 The Midway Point for Vision 2030: 2015 and MDGs 32 4 The Institutions of State and Government 35 4.1 Justice and Law 35 4.2 Increased Government Efficiency 36 4.3 Strengthening Governance and the Participatory Process 37 4.4 Evolution of the Pakistani State 37 4.5 The Role of Government in economic Growth and Development 38 5 Realizing Vision 2030: The Macroeconomic Framework 41 5.1 The Economic Context 42 5.2 Economic Growth 44 5.3 Investments 46 5.4 The Private Sector and Public-Private Partnerships 49 i 6 Agriculture Growth: Food, Water and Land 51 6.1 The Major Challenges 52 6.2 From Green to Gene Revolution 53 6 .3 The Water Challenge 55 6.4 Dairy and Livestock 56 6.5 Food Security for All 57 6.6 Globalization and Agriculture 58 6.7 Managing Natural Resources 59 6.8 Climate Change 59 7 Manufacturing and Industry 61 7.1 Diversification of Manufacturing Sector 61 7.2 Development of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise 63 7.3 Enhancing Productivity 64 7.4 The Services Sector 65 7.5 The Leisure Industry; Sports and Tourism 65 7.6 Infrastructure for Growth 67 7.7 Quality Matters 70 8 Building the Innovative Society: Knowledge, Technology, and 71 Competition 8.1 The Challenge of Competition 72 8.2 The Quest for Excellence: Education and Skills 73 8.3 Science, Technology and Innovation 76 8.4 The Social Sciences 79 9 Energy for Growth 81 9.1 The World Scena rio 81 9.2 Managing Energy Needs 82 9.3 Alternate Energy 85 9.4 Alternative Pathways for Promoting Energy Security 87 9.5 Energy and the Environment 88 9.6 Financing Energy Programmes 89 9.7 Regional Cooperation 89 9.8 Key Energy Strategies for the 21 st 89 ii 10 Rural and Urban Development 91 10.1 The Rural Context 91 10.2 Rural Development 92 10.3 Devolution and Development 93 10.4 Cities as Engines of Growth 94 10.5 Urban Services 96 10.6 Management of Megacities and Metropolitan Areas 98 10.7 Financing Urban Development 98 10.8 Pakistani Cities of the Future 99 11 The State and Security 101 11.1 Issues of Sovereignty and Security 102 11.2 Regional and International Cooperation 102 11.3 The World 102 12 Some Reflections 105 Tables 3.1 Some Possible Targets for 203 0 34 5.1 Some Projections for 2030 45 6.1 Average Yield (kg / hectare) of Selected Crops, 2005 52 6.2 Green vs ‘Gene’ Revolution 54 6.3 The Looming Water Scarcity 55 6.4 Targets of Major Agricultural Products 58 9.1 Oil, Gas, and Coal Resource Potential of Pakistan, as of 30 June 2005 83 Figures 3.1 Population Pyramids of China, India and Pakistan, 2005 and 2030 17 6.1 Increasing Crop Productivity 54 7.1 Composition of World Trade, 2005 (WTO) 62 9.1 Indigenous Energy Supply Projections 84 Annex-I 109 Annex-II 115 iii The Quaid’s Vision “…My guiding principle will be justice and complete impartiality and I am sure that with your support and cooperation, I can look forward to Pakistan becoming one of the greatest nations of the world…” Muhammad Ali Jinnah 11th August 1947 v Message from General Pervez Musharraf President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan I am happy to learn that the Planning Commission has accomplished the task of formulating the Vision 2030 document. I am informed that this national vision is based upon extensive consultations and discussions with hundreds of experts and visionaries spread over 18 months, drawn from across the country and that eminent persons belonging to all schools of thought have contributed to the formulation of this document. We are grateful to them for reflecting the hope, aspirations and determination of our people to shape their collective destiny. It is for this reason that the consensus arrived at in the Vision 2030 document is of enduring significance in the process of nation building. I see Vision 2030 as an important milestone in our journey as an independent nation which began sixty years ago under the leadership of the Quaid-i-Azam. A journey which has seen ups and downs, but is inspired by our intrinsic strength, rich culture, and traditions. I am pleased with the quality of Vision 2030 contents, and by its futuristic thought process, while remaining focused on the imperatives of nation -building. It looks into the future with feet firmly planted in reality, armed with wisdom and lessons garnered from the past. Vision 2030 examines the sustained efforts made by the Government to attain macroeconomic stability and implement wide-ranging reforms which are impacting every aspect of our state, society and economy. It rightly focuses on the right of the people to the benefits of growth and development, and ensuring the end of poverty as the foremost national priority. This is why we are developing our less developed regions, including Balochistan, FATA, and Northern Areas with massive investments in infrastructure, and social services. Pakistan cannot prosper as a nation if any of its entities, peoples or regions get left behind in the march to prosperity. Vision 2030 presents a clear picture of important emerging and expected challenges that the nation will have to confront. These pertain to water, energy, infrastructure, climate change, world trade and markets. I am confident that we have the capability to turn all these cha llenges into opportunities with commitment, resourcefulness and sense of responsibility. I fully endorse the stress on knowledge and inventiveness as key drivers of future progress. Science and technology are central to the creation of core competencies that can provide needed skills and enhance productivity to transform agriculture, industry and services sectors over the coming years.