What Happened in the South West The Myth of Massive Repudiation Page 1 of 5 What Happened in the South West: The Myth of Massive Repudiation & Enthusiastic Acceptance By Mobolji E. Aluko Burtonsville, MD, USA INTRODUCTION On April 12, April 19, and May 3, 2003, electoral earthquakes occurred in the South-West part of Nigeria, a.k.a Yorubaland, that re-arranged its political deck. From Badagry (in Lagos State) through Ode-Ekiti (in Ekiti State) to Okunland (in Kogi State), from Mahin (in Ondo State) through Atakumosa (in Osun State) to Okuta (in Kwara State), the gale force wind of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with "General" Olabode George at the fore, and the numbers-machine of "Sief" SM Afolabi in the rear, swept the Alliance for Democracy (AD aka Afenifere) off its feet, leaving (as it sometimes happens in real life) only Lagos (under "Field Marshall" Tinubu) to wonder how only his brigade survived the onslaught. The South-West was "captured", as Bode George and SM Afolabi had promised. The South-West was "delivered" to "Generallisimo Aare" Obasanjo, as "Oga Olopa" Balogun Tafa clearing the path. Edo Minorities Tony Anenih and Abel Guobadia’s ("mercenary"?) help was invaluable, one might surmise. The results have generated a cottage industry of pundits, most gloating about the demise, real and imagined, of AD and Afenifere. In the early days, before the discovery of the Rape of the South-East "beautiful bride" – still bleeding with legs wide open – it was some South-Eastern media pundits who were in the fore of that anti-Afenifere/AD punditry. Since then, they have left the stage to denounce their own rape, while many objective and "progressive" Yoruba commentators have now taken over. NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS The turnout analysis of the 2003 election results so far are shown in Tables 1 below. In the South-West, the 2003 just by themselves make little sense unless when compared with what they were in 1999, so I also have shown in Table 2 more detailed results comparing the elections of the two years in order to appreciate the difference. In both Tables, the traditional South-West includes Ekiti, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Osun and Oyo Sates. However, I have also included in Table 2, Kwara (90% Yoruba) and Kogi (40% Yoruba) for completeness. We assume, for the sake of argument, that these figures are reliable. Then on the whole, Table 1 shows that there was little enthusiasm for the elections IN GENERAL in the South-West, with rates less than 50% except for the presidential elections. Low participation therefore explains low interest in the outcome of the results, one way or the other. In that same table, Ogun State presidential turnout percentage (almost 87%) relative to other states in the South-West (with an average of 54%), and in relation to the gubernatorial turnout (a difference of 618,017) – continues to stick out like a sore thumb, indicating some electoral malfeasance that is yet to be explained. From Table 2, in the SouthWest, Obasanjo won 1,092,196 votes in 1999 and 5,042,678 votes in 2003. That remarkable turn around mirrors from 143,564 votes in Ogun State in 1999 to 1,360,170 votes in 2003. Maybe it was because there was no "Yoruba" candidate in 2003? Maybe because he is from Ogun State? Without this turn around, and with the remarkable 618,017 difference observed above, the 675,685 more votes which Obasanjo won in 2003 when compared with Falae in 1999 would have been wiped out significantly. Significantly in Kogi and Kwara, Obasanjo won almost 60,000 votes in 2003 than in 1999. CONCLUSIONS, CONCLUSIONS My conclusion from these numbers are as follows: if there was no rigging, they do not show massive swing of support AS SUCH, even in the absence of credible presidential opposition in the Southwest. if there was rigging, it was so well-crafted and calibrated as not to attract too much attention, except of those carefully-watching eyes like mine! So if there was rigging, why is there no outrage in the Southwest? Blame it on the South West governors, who refused to "listen to their elders" Afenifere about care about Obasanjo, and hence got routed in the process. Tinubu’s survival is part-area-boy, part-Atiku-friendship. He would have been swept too otherwise. http://www.nigerdeltacongress.com/warticles/what_happened_in_the_south_west.htm 7/18/2008 What Happened in the South West The Myth of Massive Repudiation Page 2 of 5 It is what the Yoruba would call "afowofa" – self-inflicted pain, aided and abetted by Obasanjo’s war-plan-like deception (see Appendix for Soboyede’s great piece on deception), and resulting in "insider-abuse" by an "ara ile" (a homeboy) made good thrice. If according to Governor X, Obasanjo was good to be president and he should be voted for, and then Obasanjo comes to your backyard to raise up the hand of your opponent claiming him to be "good to be the next governor," then "o da fun e" (it is good for you) if that opponent wins, rigging or no rigging. "O da fun won!" – the Yoruba would chorus. " Oode! Suegbe!" – the Yoruba would chorus. And the specter of Buhari put a full-stop to all pretences to pre- and post-election objectivity. A SIDE ISSUE – PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION There is another issue that these numbers bring up: a need to include proportional representation along with our first-past-the-post (majority winner takes all) clause. For example, a situation where in Lagos State AD wins 20 seats and PDP wins 2 seats in the House of Representatives, yet AD won 564,601 votes while PDP wins 372,932 votes is palpably unfair. Similarly, in Ekiti, a situation exists where PDP won 5 seats to AD’s 1 seat, yet the vote split was 179,743 to 146,171. In our ethnically diverse situation, one-half of the seats minus one should be by first-past-the-post, while the rest should be divided according to the proportion of the total votes won. In the Lagos case, AD would have won 10 + (564,601/(564,601+372,932))*12 seats or 17 seats to PDP’s 5 seats. In the Ekiti case, PDP would have won 4 seats to AD’s 2 seats. Note that in practice, it means that the number of first-past-the-posts seats would be contested on a candidates’ basis, while the proportional representation seats would be on a party basis, with each party presenting a slate of candidates from which the final winning candidates would be chosen. The situation improves with a greater number of seats. Proportional representation should be part of our electoral reform. Best wishes all. TABLE 1: Turn-Out Analysis of Nigeria’s 2003 Elections TURNOUT ANALYSIS OF NIGERIA'S 2003 ELECTIONS HOR Senate Gubernatorial Presidential Total Votes % Total Votes % Total Votes % Total Votes % South-West Ekiti 981,753 368,035 37.49 369,257 37.61 426,731 43.47 424,056 43.19 Lagos 4,558,216 1,397,650 30.66 1,434,730 31.48 1,965,526 43.12 1,939,191 42.54 Ogun 1,576,875 577,277 36.61 562,236 35.66 747,296 47.39 1,365,367 86.59 Ondo 1,504,181 709,104 47.14 713,708 47.45 960,080 63.83 995,084 66.15 Osun 1,367,627 520,496 38.06 587,595 42.96 801,812 58.63 783,914 57.32 Oyo 2,209,953 922,722 41.75 920,373 41.65 1,130,142 51.14 1,083,806 49.04 TOTAL 12,198,605 4,495,284 36.85 4,587,899 37.61 6,031,587 49.44 6,591,418 54.03 South-East Abia 1,285,428 442,061 34.39 304,545 23.69 823,347 64.05 769,167 59.84 Anambra 1,859,795 501,633 26.97 678,339 36.47 878,212 47.22 897,245 48.24 Ebonyi 1,002,771 459,546 45.83 475,736 47.44 809,224 80.7 807,767 80.55 Enugu 1,479,542 821,076 55.5 614,614 41.54 1,215,808 82.17 1,144,887 77.38 Imo 1,630,494 778,925 47.77 817,851 50.16 0 0 1,052,885 64.57 TOTAL 7,258,030 3,003,241 41.38 2,891,085 39.83 3,726,591 51.34 4,671,951 64.37 South_South Akwa Ibom 1,624,495 1,125,612 69.29 1,092,240 67.24 1,338,970 82.42 1,308,326 80.54 Bayelsa 765,472 336,066 43.9 398,924 52.11 745,408 97.38 742,917 97.05 Cross River 1,289,192 995,603 77.23 925,175 71.76 1,074,132 83.32 1,238,175 96.04 Delta 1,607,337 764,079 47.54 832,690 51.81 907,251 56.44 1,171,867 72.91 Edo 1,432,891 711,901 49.68 660,826 46.12 1,142,519 79.74 1,118,322 78.05 Rivers 2,272,238 1,823,252 80.24 1,122,160 49.39 2,111,625 92.93 2,171,215 95.55 TOTAL 8,991,625 5,756,513 64.02 5,032,015 55.96 7,319,905 81.41 7,750,822 86.2 Total South 28,448,260 13,255,038 46.59 12,510,999 43.98 17,078,083 60.03 19,014,191 66.84 North-West Jigawa 1,636,657 920,591 56.25 895,899 54.74 1,203,692 73.55 1,147,952 70.14 Kaduna 2,620,999 1,585,335 60.49 1,602,897 61.16 2,018,689 77.02 2,192,248 83.64 http://www.nigerdeltacongress.com/warticles/what_happened_in_the_south_west.htm 7/18/2008 What Happened in the South West The Myth of Massive Repudiation Page 3 of 5 Kano 4,000,430 1,645,956 41.14 1,538,560 38.46 1,734,151 43.35 2,339,792 58.49 Katsina 2,567,245 1,125,922 43.86 1,279,704 49.85 1,398,869 54.49 1,711,212 66.66 Kebbi 1,343,549 666,430 49.6 677,705 50.44 886,324 65.97 879,826 65.49 Sokoto 1,476,691 674,451 45.67 679,684 46.03 939,044 63.59 1,017,849 68.93 Zamfara 1,515,622 871,738 57.52 846,356 55.84 1,086,326 71.68 1,106,567 73.01 TOTAL 15,161,193 7,490,423 49.41 7,520,805 49.61 9,267,095 61.12 10,395,446 68.57 North-East Adamawa 1,280,204 739,449 57.76 793,288 61.97 956,664 74.73 994,033 77.65 Bauchi 2,130,557 1,114,991 52.33 1,162,275 54.55 0 0 1,739,506 81.65 Borno 2,156,019 877,875 40.72 886,742 41.13 817,533 37.92 1,336,480 61.99 Gombe 1,263,287 844,290 66.83 879,502 69.62 0 0 1,010,175 79.96 Taraba 1,026,950 610,850 59.48 808,351 78.71 949,054 92.41 923,603 89.94 Yobe 966,749 506,052 52.35 461,615 47.75 602,119 62.28 643,388 66.55 TOTAL 8,823,766 4,693,507 53.19 4,991,773 56.57 3,325,370 37.69 6,647,185