tĞƐƚsŝƌŐŝŶŝĂdƵƌŶƉŝŬĞ ϮϬϭϴZĞǀĞŶƵĞŽŶĚ^ƚƵĚLJ :ƵůLJϭϯ͕ϮϬϭϴ WƌĞƉĂƌĞĚĨŽƌ tĞƐƚsŝƌŐŝŶŝĂ WĂƌŬǁĂLJƐƵƚŚŽƌŝƚLJ Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... ES‐1 ES.1 Study Objectives and Approach ...................................................................................................... ES‐1 ES.2 Background ............................................................................................................................................. ES‐3 ES.3 Existing Conditions .............................................................................................................................. ES‐3 ES.4 Stated Preference Survey .................................................................................................................. ES‐8 ES.5 Economic Growth Analysis ............................................................................................................... ES‐9 ES.6 Toll Modeling Approach .................................................................................................................. ES‐10 ES.7 Traffic and Revenue Forecast ........................................................................................................ ES‐11 ES.8 Sensitivity Tests .................................................................................................................................. ES‐16 Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1‐1 1.1 Facility Description ................................................................................................................................... 1‐1 1.2 Traffic and Revenue Forecasting History ........................................................................................ 1‐2 1.3 Order of Presentation ............................................................................................................................... 1‐5 Chapter 2 Existing Conditions ........................................................................................................................ 2‐1 2.1 Description of the West Virginia Turnpike ..................................................................................... 2‐1 2.2 Toll Schedule and Discount Plans ....................................................................................................... 2‐3 2.2.1 Personal Discount Plan #1 ............................................................................................................ 2‐4 2.2.2 Personal Discount Plan #2 ............................................................................................................ 2‐4 2.2.3 Commercial Discount Plan #3 ...................................................................................................... 2‐4 2.2.4 Commercial Discount Plan #4 ...................................................................................................... 2‐4 2.3 Traffic and Transactions ......................................................................................................................... 2‐5 2.3.1 Average Daily Traffic ....................................................................................................................... 2‐5 2.3.2 Historical Annual Transactions ................................................................................................... 2‐6 2.3.3 Seasonal Variations .......................................................................................................................... 2‐6 2.3.4 Transactions by Plaza ...................................................................................................................... 2‐7 2.3.5 Vehicle Classification ....................................................................................................................... 2‐8 2.3.6 Method of Payment ........................................................................................................................... 2‐8 2.3.7 E‐ZPass Trips by Zip Code .......................................................................................................... 2‐11 2.3.8 E‐ZPass End‐to‐End Trips ........................................................................................................... 2‐11 2.4 Annual Toll Revenue .............................................................................................................................. 2‐13 2.4.1 Historical Annual Revenue ......................................................................................................... 2‐13 2.4.2 Revenue by Plaza ............................................................................................................................ 2‐13 2.4.3 Revenue by Vehicle Classification ........................................................................................... 2‐14 2.4.4 Revenue by Payment Type ......................................................................................................... 2‐15 2.5 Frequency of Use ..................................................................................................................................... 2‐15 2.5.1 E‐ZPass Customers ........................................................................................................................ 2‐15 2.5.2 StreetLight Data .............................................................................................................................. 2‐18 2.6 Major Capital Improvement Projects ............................................................................................. 2‐24 2.7 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................. 2‐25 Chapter 3 Stated Preference Survey ............................................................................................................. 3‐1 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 3‐1 3.2 Survey Approach ........................................................................................................................................ 3‐1 July 13, 2018 i Table of Contents West Virginia Turnpike 2018 Revenue Bond Study 3.3 Survey Questionnaire ............................................................................................................................... 3‐2 3.3.1 Qualification Questions ................................................................................................................... 3‐2 3.3.2 General Travel Questions .............................................................................................................. 3‐2 3.3.3 Trip Characteristic Questions ...................................................................................................... 3‐3 3.3.4 Stated Preference Questions ........................................................................................................ 3‐3 3.3.5 Debrief and Opinion Questions ................................................................................................... 3‐4 3.3.6 Demographic Questions ................................................................................................................. 3‐5 3.4 Survey Administration ............................................................................................................................. 3‐5 3.4.1 Invitation Card .................................................................................................................................... 3‐5 3.4.2 WVPA Customer and Public Outreach ...................................................................................... 3 ‐ 7 3.4.3 Out‐of‐State and Public Outreach ............................................................................................... 3‐7 3.5 Data Analysis ................................................................................................................................................ 3‐8 3.5.1 Outliers .................................................................................................................................................. 3‐8 3.5.2 Survey Results .................................................................................................................................... 3‐9 3.6 Model Estimation .................................................................................................................................... 3‐13 3.6.1 Discrete Choice Model .................................................................................................................. 3‐14 3.6.2 Trip Suppression ............................................................................................................................ 3‐19 3.6.3 Market Share Simulation ............................................................................................................. 3‐21 3.7 Customer Comments ............................................................................................................................. 3‐22 3.8 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 3‐24 Chapter 4 Economic and Baseline Forecast ..............................................................................................