REPORT A FAIR DEAL ON MIGRATION FOR THE UK IPPR March 2014 © IPPR 2014 Institute for Public Policy Research ABOUT THE AUTHORS The research and authorship of this report was a joint effort by the Migration and Communities team at IPPR. The following people were involved: Alex Glennie, Alice Sachrajda, Jenny Pennington, Ipek Gencsu, Brhmie Balaram, Miklos Szilard, Phoebe Griffith, Sarah Mulley and Tim Finch. Freelance consultant Miranda Lewis also contributed. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank a number of our IPPR colleagues (present and past) who contributed advice or particular areas of expertise to the report, including Dalia Ben-Galim, Graeme Cooke, Ed Cox, Jonathan Clifton, Kayte Lawton, Matt Cavanagh, Imogen Parker, Myriam Cherti, Nick Pearce and Tony Dolphin. We are very grateful to Unbound Philanthropy, the Barrow Cadbury Trust and the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust for their generous funding of IPPR’s Progressive Migration project, of which this report is the culmination. Many discussions informed this report, and we are particularly grateful to the members of our advisory group who helped to guide our thinking. They are: Alasdair Murray of Quiller Consultants, Ayesha Saran of Barrow Cadbury Trust, Professor Bernard Ryan of the University of Leicester, Bobby Duffy of Ipsos MORI, Ian Robinson of Fragomen, Jonathan Portes of NIESR, Naaz Coker, Sunder Katwala of British Future, Professor Shamit Saggar of the University of Sussex, and Will Somerville. We should stress that although we drew on the expertise and wisdom of the advisory group, the research and ideas presented in this report are IPPR’s own. Finally we would like to thank all the members of the public who participated in our four focus groups in Manchester and Gravesend, or who took part in the online survey which was carried out for IPPR by Ipsos MORI. ABOUT IPPR IPPR, the Institute for Public Policy Research, is the UK’s leading progressive thinktank. We are an independent charitable organisation with more than 40 staff members, paid interns and visiting fellows. Our main office is in London, with IPPR North, IPPR’s dedicated thinktank for the North of England, operating out of offices in Newcastle and Manchester. The purpose of our work is to assist all those who want to create a society where every citizen lives a decent and fulfilled life, in reciprocal relationships with the people they care about. We believe that a society of this sort cannot be legislated for or guaranteed by the state. And it certainly won’t be achieved by markets alone. It requires people to act together and take responsibility for themselves and each other. IPPR 4th Floor 14 Buckingham Street London WC2N 6DF T: +44 (0)20 7470 6100 E: [email protected] www.ippr.org Registered charity no. 800065 This paper was first published in March 2014. © 2014 The contents and opinions in this paper are the authors’ only. IDEAS to CHANGE OPINIONS CONTENTS Executive summary ......................................................................................................1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................9 The ‘crude restrictionist’ approach ..............................................................................9 Failed responses ........................................................................................................9 A new response .......................................................................................................10 1. Principles revisited .................................................................................................13 2. The state of the evidence .......................................................................................14 2.1 Limitations of the data ........................................................................................14 2.2 Summary of the numbers ....................................................................................14 2.3 The impact of migration on the UK economy .......................................................20 2.4 The impact of migration on UK welfare and public services ..................................24 2.5 The impact of migration on UK housing ...............................................................26 2.6 Impacts on society .............................................................................................27 2.7 Conclusions .......................................................................................................29 3. Understanding public opinion ................................................................................30 3.1 The cost–benefit frame .......................................................................................32 3.2 The fairness frame ..............................................................................................36 3.3 Conclusions .......................................................................................................41 4. A new Fair Deal on migration .................................................................................43 4.1 Managing migration to make it fair for everyone ...................................................43 4.2 Aligning migration policy with the wider aim of developing a stronger and fairer UK economy ............................................................................................................44 4.3 Migration policy in the wider context of economic reform .....................................46 4.4 A differentiated approach to managing migration .................................................47 4.5 Simplifying routes of entry ...................................................................................48 4.6 Attracting economic migrants who will contribute to the UK economy ..................... 50 4.7 Introducing a new UK worker training requirement ...............................................53 4.8 Annual migration flow reports ..............................................................................54 4.9 Reforming government management of migration ................................................55 4.10 Preserving free movement in the EU but protecting the UK from ‘shocks’ ...........56 4.11 Managing family migration .................................................................................58 4.12 Recognising the social and cultural impacts of migration ....................................60 4.13 Strengthening integration into British society......................................................60 4.14 Increasing immigrants’ ability (and responsibility) to speak English ......................61 i IPPR | A fair deal on migration for the UK 4.15 Supporting sites of integration ...........................................................................63 4.16 Encouraging settlement and citizenship .............................................................63 4.17 Supporting communities facing particular immigration pressures ........................65 4.18 Migration and fairer welfare ...............................................................................67 4.19 Limiting access to welfare benefits for newly arrived migrants .............................67 4.20 Levying an upfront contribution from migrants for use of free public services ......68 4.21 Limiting migrants’ access to shortage housing ...................................................69 4.22 Greater local control over other aspects of housing ............................................70 4.23 Constructing a fair asylum process ....................................................................71 4.24 Irregular immigration .........................................................................................73 4.25 Conclusion .......................................................................................................74 References .................................................................................................................75 ii IPPR | A fair deal on migration for the UK EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In this report we set out a new, comprehensive progressive position on migration, which we call the ‘Fair Deal’. The report crystallises IPPR’s thinking on this issue as it has developed over the last five years. It springs from two important observations. First, despite strenuous efforts by successive governments to reduce migration, there are no signs that we will see a return to the low levels of migration of the mid-1990s. Rather, the relatively high levels of the last 20 years are likely to be the norm for the foreseeable future. Second, despite the failure of what we term ‘crude restrictionism’ – that is, trying to reduce migration by whatever means and at whatever cost – other responses to this dominant narrative have failed to win over mainstream public opinion and therefore open up space in which politicians can pursue more rational and coherent migration policies. Within the Fair Deal we endeavour to be both realistic about the world we live in and ambitious about the society we want to create. The world is increasingly interconnected and characterised by the movement of capital, goods, services, knowledge – and people. Prosperity is spreading, but far from evenly; and while progress is being made, the world remains beset by multiple and frequent crises. UK society remains relatively open, tolerant, dynamic and humane. The majority of people in the country recognise that our future depends on being competitive in world