NIGERIA SITUATION REPORT SPECIAL FOCUS ON THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS Report No. 1 / 26 January 2015 ~ 0 ~ Table of Contents Executive Summary ……………………………………………………………….... 2 Introduction …………………………………………………………………………… 4 Antecedents of the two Leading Presidential Candidates ………………………. 4 State of Play in the Forthcoming Contest …....................................................... 6 State of the Main Political Parties …………………………………………………. 7 Major Areas of Concern …………………………………………………………….. 8 General Insecurity and Boko Haram Insurgency ……………………. 8 INEC and the Conduct of Credible Elections ………………………… 10 Election-Related Violence ………………………………………….. …. 11 State of the Economy and Corruption ………………………………… 12 Nigerian Power Centres and the February 2015 Elections …………………….. 13 Possible Outcomes of the Elections ………………………………………………. 14 Reactions to the Announced Results of the Elections …………………………… 16 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………. 16 ~ 1 ~ JKS & Associates Ltd. Nigeria Situation Report No. 1 26 January 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In a few weeks from now, Nigerians will go into crucial elections to elect their President, Governors in 28 of the 36 States of the Federation and members of the National and State Legislatures. Although Nigerian elections are usually fiercely contested, there is apprehension that the 2015 elections will be accompanied by violence, before, during and after the elections. The violence will not only be between the parties but also within the parties as a result of the selection processes for the contestants for the various elective offices. While the latter has resulted to large movements of politicians from one party to another and may not continue to generate too much violence, inter-party violence continues and may spill over to the post-election phase. 2. The general insecurity in the country, especially the insurgency in the North-East States of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, and threats by supporters of leading Presidential candidates that their candidate must win or there will be violence, are considered a real cause for concern. The Boko Haram insurgency, rather than being contained by the military, is escalating and there are doubts as to whether elections could be held successfully in those States. What effect this will have on the Presidential, gubernatorial and legislative elections and the ability of the contestants to meet the constitutional requirements of having 25% of the votes of two-thirds of the election space is still an unanswered question. Whereas there are a few voices asking for postponement of the election because of these questions, the majority view is that the elections should and will hold as scheduled. 3. Questions are also being asked with respect to the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC’s) preparedness to conduct free and fair elections all over the country. While it is generally agreed that INEC has greatly improved in its performance, there are still questions as to its ability to resist pressure, from all sides, to freely operate and act independently. Yet, the elections will be considered free, fair and credible, to the extent that INEC is considered an unbiased umpire. 4. Eleven Presidential candidates have emerged from the 27 registered political parties. However, the two main contenders are the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and current President, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, former military Head of State, Major General Muhammadu Buhari. They were the main candidates in the 2011 election when the PDP candidate won by over 10 million votes. Buhari had contested in the three elections and lost. Nigerians wonder if he will be lucky this fourth time. 5. That question would appear to be legitimate in view of a number of factors, including the fact that, PDP’s dominance has been eroded with many former PDP stalwarts now in the main opposition party, APC, which is an amalgam of several opposition parties. It is also apparent that Buhari has, through his selection by the APC as its Presidential candidate, extended his support base far beyond the narrow confines of the North to include the South West where he did poorly in the 2003, ~ 2 ~ 2007 and 2011 Presidential elections. While President Jonathan’s administration does have credible achievements to its credit, the current state of the economy and the inability of the Federal Government to successfully quell the insurgency in the North-East of the country will count against him. The influence of the power centres in the country is crucial but it can be used to its advantage by either party. 6. Predicting the possible outcome of elections is a challenge anywhere and is particularly so in Nigeria. There are three possible outcomes: either the President wins outright in the first round with majority of the votes and 25% of the votes in two- thirds of the 36 States, or his opponent does so, or neither meets the criteria for a first round win, necessitating a run-off. 7. From our analyses, it is possible for one of the two candidates to emerge in the first round since they could each just obtain the 25% of the votes from 24 States. Thus, for either President Jonathan to win or General Buhari to do so, all the factors referred to earlier will need to be substantially in their favour. Apart from the power of incumbency, this will mean that the PDP is able to correct the serious internal crisis it has had, the war on insurgency is substantially addressed, the economic situation greatly improved and the government is able to better portray its achievements than it has so far. Equally, the party needs to be able to play up the baggage that both the APC and its candidates have. There is not much time for all this to happen before the election and the momentum the APC and its candidate seem to have gained may tilt the result in their favour. But, as the saying goes in this country: “24 hours is very long in Nigerian politics”. 8. The nation must be ready to deal with the likely reaction of a Jonathan loss or win or a Buhari win or loss, as either result is likely to provoke violent reactions from their supporters. Moderation on the part of the leaders of both parties could help reduce the intensity of violence as would be the fairness of the security forces in managing the violence, as well as how well INEC is perceived to be free and fair. 9. From our analysis, we assign ELEVATED as the risk rating for election violence. ~ 3 ~ JKS & ASSOCIATES LTD. NIGERIA SITUATION REPORT NO. 1 SPECIAL FOCUS ON THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS INTRODUCTION In less than a month, Nigerians will go to the polls to elect their President, some State Governors and members of the National and State Legislatures. It is a very crucial and massive exercise as it involves not just the election of a President but also that of the Governors of as many as 28 out of the 36 States of Nigeria. Of this number, ten will be contesting for a second term and eight will be contesting for vacant seats. There will be no election in eight States whose Governors are still enjoying their first or second terms in office. Nigerians and their friends are, therefore, apprehensive about what would happen before, during and after the elections. 2. Already, one of the important exercises that preface elections in Nigeria has been concluded: the selection of Presidential and Governorship candidates by all the parties. So far, eleven Presidential candidates have emerged from the 27 registered parties. Expectedly, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has selected the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan, as its Presidential candidate, while the main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), has selected a former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, as its Presidential flag bearer. ANTECEDENTS OF THE TWO MAJOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY 3. President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan is the PDP candidate for the 2015 Presidential Elections. Born on 20 November 1957, he has been the President of Nigeria since 2010 when he succeeded late President Umaru Yar'Adua to complete the latter’s tenure in accordance with the Nigerian Constitution. Prior to being President, he served as Governor of Bayelsa State from 2005 to 2007 and as Vice - President of Nigeria from 2007 to 2010. And before this, he was a University lecturer in the University of Port Harcourt. Elected President in 2011, he is seeking a second term. ~ 4 ~ ALL PROGRESSIVES CONGRESS 4. General Muhammadu Buhari is the APC Presidential candidate. He was born on 17 December 1942. A retired Major-General of the Nigerian Army, he was the military Head of State from 31 December 1983 to 27 August 1985. In March 1976, the then Head of State, General Olusegun Obasanjo, appointed General Muhammadu Buhari as the Federal Commissioner (position now called Minister) for Petroleum and Natural Resources. When the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation was created in 1976, Buhari was also appointed as its Chairman, a position he held until 1978. He later served as the Chairman of the Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), a body created by the government of General Sani Abacha and funded from the revenue generated by the increase in price of petroleum products, to pursue various developmental projects around the country. He has thrice contested, unsuccessfully, for the office of President in 2003, 2007 under the platform of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) and with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2011, moving from one political