WHITE PAPER MARCH 2016 THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR IN TURKEY A BASELINE ANALYSIS OF VEHICLE FLEET STRUCTURE, FUEL CONSUMPTION AND EMISSIONS Peter Mock www.theicct.org [email protected] BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author is Managing Director at ICCT and a 2015/16 Fellow at the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC). IPC is an independent policy research institute with global outreach and the mission to foster academic research in social sciences and its application to policy making. The Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program is a joint initiative between Sabancı University and Stiftung Mercator. Funding for this work was generously provided through the Mercator- IPC Fellowship Program (http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/en/about_fellowship/). The author would like to thank all reviewers of this report for their constructive comments as well as the following individuals for their particular contribution to the development of this report: Gülcihan Çiğdem (IPC), Egemen Can Erçelik (IPC), Megan Gisclon (IPC), Daniel Grütjen (Stiftung Mercator), Fuat Keyman (IPC), Wolfram Knörr (IFEU), Pınar Köse (EMBARQ Turkiye), Joshua Miller (ICCT), Doruk Özdemir (DLR), Ümit Şahin (IPC), Uwe Tietge (ICCT), Jan Tasci (Stiftung Mercator), Çiğdem Tongal (IPC), Ethemcan Turhan (IPC), Alper Ünal (Istanbul Technical University), Zifei Yang (ICCT). © 2016 International Council on Clean Transportation The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit organization founded to provide first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. The ICCT participants’ council comprises high-level civil servants, academic researchers, and independent transportation and environmental policy experts, who come together at regular intervals to collaborate as individuals on setting a global agenda for clean transportation. ICCT was founded in 2005, and has offices in Berlin and Brussels, as well as in the US and China. It is funded principally by private foundations, such as the ClimateWorks Foundation in the U.S. and Stiftung Mercator in Europe. For additional information: International Council on Clean Transportation Europe Neue Promenade 6, 10178 Berlin +49 (30) 847129-102 [email protected] | www.theicct.org | @TheICCT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Turkey is one of the largest vehicle manufacturing countries in the world. Given the strong dependence of the Turkish economy on the automotive industry, it is of particular importance to ensure that this industry sector is ready to meet current and future challenges, such as local air pollution, climate change, and energy security, by offering innovative vehicles that can compete on the global market. An extensive set of policy measures can help drive forward the necessary innovations. A main objective of this report is to provide a transparent assessment of the current vehicle market in Turkey to domestic policymakers and stakeholders as well as to an interested international audience. Thus, in a first step, the current status of vehicle production and sales and its impact on fuel consumption and emissions in Turkey are studied and compared in particular to the situation in Germany, given that the automotive industry plays such a vital role in both economies. Vehicle statistics for Turkey are compared to the EU-28 market as well as other key automotive markets worldwide. Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles account for three-quarters of the vehicle fleet in Turkey. It was found that the level of efficiency for new cars and light commercial vehicles is similar to the efficiency of comparable vehicles in Germany and the EU. This means that the fuel consumption and CO2 emission level is similar when taking into account differences in fleet characteristics, such as vehicle weight, size, and engine power (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). In some instances it was found that the level of technologies to reduce CO2 emissions applied to vehicles in Turkey is slightly lower than in Germany and the EU. EUregulatory G target NclassIII TE G EUregulatory target ) SUV G E E upper T T medium G E medium T G G NclassII E G T lower emissionlevel(gkminNEDC E T medium small CO E T G NclassI T TTurkeyGGermanyEEU- TTurkeyGGermanyEEU- E Vehicleweight(kg) Vehicleweight(kg) Figure 1. Average CO2 emission level of new Figure 2. Average CO2 emission level of new registrations passenger cars (2014), all vehicles registrations light commercial vehicles (2014), by vehicle segment and weight. Data source: all vehicles by vehicle segment and weight. (ICCT, 2015a). Data source: (ICCT, 2015a). i ICCT WHITE PAPER Modeling a business-as-usual scenario, it was estimated that CO2 emissions from road transport in Turkey would approximately double by 2030. As CO2 emissions and fuel consumption are directly linked to each other, this would also mean roughly doubling oil consumption over the next years. Turkey is one of the few key automotive markets worldwide not yet having introduced mandatory CO2 standards for cars and light commercial vehicles. Beyond vehicle CO2 standards, additional measures, such as vehicle taxation based on CO2, as well as mandates and incentives for electrified vehicles and alternative fuels, could complement and leverage the effects of CO2 vehicle standards. Heavy-duty vehicles account for only about one-tenth of the market in Turkey, but at the same time are responsible for more than half of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. Some regions, such as the United States, Canada, China, and Japan, have already introduced mandatory efficiency standards for new heavy-duty vehicles, and it is likely that the EU will be moving in this direction as well. Given the particular importance of the production of trucks and buses, not only for the local vehicle market in Turkey but also for the export market, the introduction of efficiency standards could be a viable approach for Turkey as well. About half of all new cars in Turkey are first registered in the Istanbul area. This highlights the importance of cities, and in particular the city of Istanbul, with respect to the deployment of innovative vehicle technologies. Urban areas are typically most affected by the negative impacts of road transportation, such as high levels of local air pollutants. At the same time, these urban areas can take complementary action, in addition to any policy measures at the national level, to incentivize the deployment of low-emission vehicles. Examples for such measures include an improved infrastructure for alternative fuels and electricity as well as restrictions for high-emission vehicles when entering urban areas. ii THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR IN TURKEY TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... i Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ iv 1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................1 2 Vehicle fleet structure ......................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Overall vehicle stock and new vehicle fleet ........................................................................... 2 2.2 Vehicle production, imports and exports ............................................................................... 5 2.3 Vehicle distribution by region ..................................................................................................... 8 2.4 The passenger car fleet in more detail .................................................................................. 10 2.5 The light commercial vehicle fleet in more detail ..............................................................17 2.6 The heavy truck fleet in more detail........................................................................................21 2.7 Interim conclusions .......................................................................................................................22 3 Vehicle fuel consumption and emissions ........................................................................24 3.1 Passenger car fleet averages ....................................................................................................24 3.2 Individual passenger car models .............................................................................................27 3.3 Passenger car fleet distribution and international comparison .................................. 30 3.4 Light commercial fleet averages...............................................................................................31 3.5 Light commercial vehicle fleet distribution and international comparison .............34 3.6 Overall oil consumption ..............................................................................................................35 3.7 Overall CO2 emissions ..................................................................................................................39 3.8 Overall air pollutant emissions ................................................................................................ 40 3.9 Interim conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 44 4 Conclusions and outlook .................................................................................................