JRC TECHNICAL REPORT POWER SYSTEM FLEXIBILITY IN A VARIABLE CLIMATE 2020 © European Union, 2020 De Felice M., Busch S., Kanellopoulos K., Kavvadias K., Hidalgo-González I. EUR 30184 EN Joint Research Centre This publication is a Technical report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Matteo De Felice Address: Westerduinweg 3, 1755 LE Petten Email: [email protected] Tel.: +31 224 565 160 EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC120338 EUR 30184 EN PDF ISBN 978-92-76-18183-5 ISSN 1831-9424 doi: 10.2760/75312 Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). 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Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Methodology .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Key results ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Impacts of climate variability on the European power systems .............................................................................................. 2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Goal and scope of this study ............................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Our methodology ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 2 Analysis of climate variability ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Water ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Wind ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Solar power .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 2.4 Electricity demand ................................................................................................................................................................................ 13 3 Impact of climate variability on the European power systems ............................................................................................. 16 3.1 The European power systems ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Generation mix ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 3.3 CO2 emissions and fuel costs ........................................................................................................................................................ 25 3.4 Use of fresh water for thermal cooling ................................................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Reservoir water levels ........................................................................................................................................................................ 27 3.6 Interconnections .................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 3.7 Curtailment and load shedding ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 3.8 Observed patterns ................................................................................................................................................................................ 32 3.9 Country case studies ........................................................................................................................................................................... 35 Wind and hydropower in Spain ......................................................................................................................................................... 35 Wind power and system adequacy issues in the United Kingdom ............................................................................... 37 Pumped storage and wind power in Lithuania ........................................................................................................................ 39 Market values of onshore wind in Austria, Denmark, Germany, Lithuania, Spain and Sweden ................... 41 4 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 4.1 What about the future? ..................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Future climate ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 46 Future power systems ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48 4.2 Our roadmap ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 References ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 51 List of abbreviations and definitions ............................................................................................................................................................ 56 List of figures ............................................................................................................................................................................................................