Identifying the opportunitiesfor, and hazards of, arms control in Akobo County, Jonglei State, southern Sudan, during the 'Interim Period9 by David G. Lochhead B.A. McGiIl University A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS In CONFLICT ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT We accept this thesis as conforming to the required standard Faculty Supervisor, Hrach Gregorian, Ph.D. Program Head, Fred Oster, Ph.D. Director, Dr. Gregory Cran, School of Peace and Conflict Management, Royal Roads University ROYAL ROADS UNIVERSITY August, 2007 © David Lochhead, 2007 Library and Archives Bibliothèque et ?F? 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While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires aient inclus dans in the document page count, their la pagination, il n'y aura aucun contenu removal does not represent any loss manquant. of content from the thesis. 1*1 Canada Disarmament Opportunities arid Hazards i i léemûfyîmg the opportunitiesfor, ama hazards of, arms cornimi in Akobo County, Jonglei State, southern Sudan, during the ^Interim Period E» wrnrn • ^ lí-J f ìù ·*»* 1W ¦ ft • i« ?A '*mí »11 "Ifa man with bare hands meets you on the road andyou have thegun- you are like a god to him. " (Akobo Trader, 2006) "Death has become monotonous to us here. You sleep withfear because ofthe gun. " (Akobo Peace Committee Member #6, 2006) " Ifthe gun is not withdrawnfrom the hands ofthepeople, death will not stop. " (Akobo Peace Committee Member #7, 2006) "Central to conflict transformation is its challenge to the role which violenceplays in most cultures as the chosen means and arbiter ofconflict... " (Francis, 2002) ¦ 5 3*1 i * f ms m »i;-:«ÌM Disarmament Opportunities and Hazards iii Executive summary This action-oriented inquiry on the opportunities and hazards of arms control in Akobo County, Jonglei State, Sudan, is informed by both historical and field research and contains an analysis ofthe dynamics surrounding ongoing disarmament in the research area, within southern Sudan. It is intended to be descriptive, analytical and reflective. The study explores a number ofrelated issues that the author considers to be critical to a nuanced understanding of the potential impacts of disarmament on communities in the research area: the history ofNuer expansion; the history of firearms proliferation and use in the research area and their effects on an analysis ofNuer cultural transformation in response to colonization and competing governance structures; as well as the implications of disarmament for self-determination, state building and the 'rule of law'. The first chapter of the study is concerned with the presentation ofthe political and historical context for the inquiry. It covers the causes and effects of weapons proliferation within the context of Sudan's civil wars and weapons use amongst nomadic pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa. It also provides an overview ofthe field research findings and contemporaneous disarmament activities. This chapter finishes with a discussion of some of the main themes affecting conflict in the research area and their reflection in the literature informing the research design and research questions. Chapter 2 describes the methodology for the field study component of the research and begins a deeper exploration of the literature. It then briefly touches on some ofthe assumptions and ethical issues associated with the research, before exploring the definitions and literature around the inter-related issues of 'small arms' and 'human security'. Chapter 3 begins the conflict analysis portion ofthe study, with an exploration of geographic, political, policy, cross-border, historical and identity aspects of the dynamics affecting disarmament and security decisions in the research area. It examines the sources of conflict, the effects of conflict and potential future scenarios. The chapter also touches on gendered aspects of evolving Nuer cultural norms surrounding violence. It provides an overview ofthe dynamics surrounding disarmament. A detailed stakeholder conflict analysis is attached as Appendix 5 (p. 132). The chapter finishes with an analysis Disarmament Opportunities and Hazards iv of the relationship between 'rule of law' concepts and programmes, state-building processes and disarmament. Chapter 4 provides an historical description and analysis ofthe pre-colonial period, colonial period, first and second civil wars as they affect and are affected by weapons proliferation and use in the research area. Chapter 5 contains the research findings from the formal field research component of the inquiry, with analysis ofthe two hypotheses ofthe study, relating to local opinions on disarmament opportunities and hazards and on the secondary hypothesis relating to trade and disarmament. This chapter also provides further detail on the forced disarmament which took place concurrently to the field research as well as a follow-up survey that describes some ofthe perverse impacts of disarmament on trade. Chapter 6 explores the role of the external actor in mediation and the evolving relation between the Nuer and foreign/outside governance systems. This chapter explores competing concepts of sovereignty, cultural change, violence and legitimacy from historical, anthropological and political philosophy perspectives. Chapter 7 provides a detailed account of post-research disarmament activities (aimed at reducing the violence surrounding ongoing disarmament campaigns by the GoSS) that were at least partly influenced by the field research and assesses the political and security impacts ofthese events on the community in light ofthe field research. Chapter 8 provides conclusions from the study. Disarmament Opportunities and Hazards ? Table of Contents Chapter I - Introduction and Overview 1 Purpose of Study 2 Background for the Research Project 3 Project Context: Arms Control, self-determination, violence and identity 7 Overview of Inquiry 10 Questions Influencing the Research Project 16 Objectives ofthe Research Project - Deliverables Defined 16 The Research Question 17 Needs Assessment: Relevance ofthe Research Project 18 Contribution to the Field 18 Chapter II - Methodology 20 Field Research Methodology 20 Data or Information Sources 20 Assumptions, Limitations and Ethical Issues 23 Definition of Terms 24 Defining Security- Whose security matters? 28 Chapter III - Understanding the Causes and Drivers of Conflict and weapons proliferation in Jonglei and Eastern Upper Nile 3 1 Significance ofthe topic to the specific local context in Upper Nile/Jonglei states:.... 31 Cross-border and international dimensions to the conflicts 31 National Sources of conflict and conflict resolution efforts affecting the research area ....................................................................................................................................... 33 Post-War Opportunities and Challenges affecting disarmament decisions 33 Sources of conflict in Southern Sudan, threats to Peace and their effects on disarmament decisions 35 Policy Clarity Still Emerging 37 Potential effects on disarmament ofhigher order conflicts in Sudan 38 Local Sources of conflict 39 Water, grazing land and the control ofwomen's reproduction as a source of conflict 41 Overview of Dynamics surrounding disarmament 44 Notions of 'Law and Order' 45 Chapter IV - Understanding the historical dynamics of small arms and light weapons proliferation and use in Akobo County, Jonglei State 5 1 Historical acquisition and use of firearms amongst the Nuer: Firearms as a vector in cultural transformation 51 The Colonial Period 52 The First Civil War 53 The Second Civil War 54 Chapter V -Overview of Survey Findings 57 Methodology 57 Disarmament Opportunities and Hazards vi Research Participants 57 Modifying the research instrument during the research Period 58 Preliminary Observations on Focus Groups and Interviews