C O R P O R A T I O N MICHAEL SPIRTAS, YOOL KIM, FRANK CAMM, SHIRLEY M. ROSS, DEBRA KNOPMAN, FORREST E. MORGAN, SEBASTIAN JOON BAE, M. SCOTT BOND, JOHN S. CROWN, ELAINE SIMMONS A Separate Space Creating a Military Service for Space For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4263 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0466-4 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: loops7/E+ via Getty Images. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface With the passage of the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, the U.S. govern- ment will launch a Space Force. In February 2019, President Donald J. Trump directed the Department of Defense to create the Space Force, as an independent service within the Department of the Air Force, “to ensure unfettered access to, and freedom to oper- ate in, space, and to provide vital capabilities to joint and coalition forces in peacetime and across the spectrum of conflict.”1 The Air Force asked the RAND Corporation to assist in its efforts to plan for the creation of the new service. RAND provided analytic support to the U.S. Space Force Planning Task Force to inform efforts to build the Space Force. This report provides recommendations on capabilities that our analysis suggests should be included in the Space Force, considers career field sustainability for the fledgling service, and examines other defense orga- nizations to draw lessons for the Space Force. It also considers what it means to be a service as it seeks to illuminate challenges and opportunities the fledgling Space Force will face. The research reported here was sponsored by Major General Clinton Crosier, Deputy, Deputy Chief of Staff, Strategy, Integration and Requirements, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, and conducted within RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doc- trine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ 1 White House, Establishment of the United States Space Force, Washington, D.C., Space Policy Directive–4, February 19, 2019. iii iv Creating a Military Service for Space This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on Sep- tember 20, 2019. The draft report, issued on September 11, 2019, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. Contents Preface ................................................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...................................................................................vii Summary ............................................................................................. ix Acknowledgments ..................................................................................xiii Abbreviations .........................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Contextual Background for the Space Force .................................................... 7 What Is a Service? ...................................................................................... 7 Department of Defense Activities in Space over Time ...........................................10 Toward a Presidential Directive .....................................................................15 CHAPTER THREE Planning for the Force: Analytic Approach for Determining Which Activities Should Transfer to the Space Force .........................................................19 Step 1. Identify Relevant Activities and Units for Analysis: Elements of a Space Force .... 20 Step 2. Develop Organizational Performance Metrics: Defining Success for the Space Force ..............................................................................................21 Step 3. Qualitatively Assess Potential Effects of Transfer on Performance Metrics ......... 26 Step 4. Apply Logic to Determine Which Activities Should Transfer to the Space Force ... 27 CHAPTER FOUR Planning for the Force: Activities and Organizations That Should Transfer to the Space Force .......................................................................................29 Operational and Training Activities ................................................................29 Acquisition Activities .................................................................................41 Major Headquarters Activities ...................................................................... 48 Support Activities .....................................................................................53 Summary .............................................................................................. 54 v vi Creating a Military Service for Space CHAPTER FIVE Career Field Sustainment Within the Space Force ............................................57 Determination of Space Force Officer Career Field Sustainability: RAND’s Model .........58 The Case of 13S (Space Operations) ................................................................61 The Case of 14N (Intelligence Officers) .......................................................... 64 General Officer Throughput ........................................................................67 Challenges .............................................................................................71 Implications for the Space Force ....................................................................73 Conclusions ............................................................................................74 CHAPTER SIX Lessons from the Creation of Other Military Organizations ...............................75 Effectiveness ...........................................................................................75 Efficiency .............................................................................................. 77 Independence ......................................................................................... 77 Identity .................................................................................................78 Size ......................................................................................................79 CHAPTER SEVEN Charting an Adaptive Approach to Implementation .........................................83 Adaptive Planning ................................................................................... 84 Load-Bearing Assumptions on Which the Space Force Will Depend ......................... 88 Signposts .............................................................................................. 90 Shaping Actions ...................................................................................... 92 Hedging Actions ......................................................................................93 Potential Implications ............................................................................... 94 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion ............................................................................................95 Space Force Activities and Organization ...........................................................95 Workforce Sustainability Challenges for the Space Force ....................................... 96 Challenges and Opportunities for the Space Force ............................................. 97 Recommendations ................................................................................... 98 Concluding Thoughts .............................................................................. 102 APPENDIXES A. Case Studies: Other Examples of Organizational Change ............................. 103 B. Career Field Sustainability: Acquisition Officers ....................................... 149 Bibliography ......................................................................................