Upjohn Press Upjohn Research home page 9-30-2009 Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy?: Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States William Lazonick University of Massachusetts, Lowell Follow this and additional works at: https://research.upjohn.org/up_press Part of the Labor Economics Commons Citation Lazonick, William. 2009. Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy?: Business Organization and High- Tech Employment in the United States. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. https://doi.org/10.17848/9781441639851 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 License. This title is brought to you by the Upjohn Institute. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Lazonick.indb 1 7/31/2009 8:42:03 AM Lazonick.indb 2 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM Sustainable Prosperity in the New Economy? Business Organization and High-Tech Employment in the United States William Lazonick 2009 W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research Kalamazoo, Michigan Lazonick.indb 3 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lazonick, William Sustainable prosperity in the new economy : business organization and high-tech employment in the United States / William Lazonick. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-88099-350-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-88099-350-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-13: 978-0-88099-351-7 (hardcover : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-88099-351-0 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Information technology—Economic aspects—United States. 2. High-technology industries—United States. 3. Labor market—United States. 4. Economic development—United States. I. Title. HC110.I55L39 2009 330.973—dc22 2009023117 © 2009 W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research 300 S. Westnedge Avenue Kalamazoo, Michigan 49007-4686 The facts presented in this study and the observations and viewpoints expressed are the sole responsibility of the author. They do not necessarily represent positions of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Cover design by Ace Creative Index prepared by Printed in the United States of America. Printed on recycled paper. Lazonick.indb 4 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM To the memory of my parents, Louis and Pearl Lazonick. Lazonick.indb 5 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM Lazonick.indb 6 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM Contents Preface xiii 1 What is New, and Permanent, about the “New Economy”? 1 The End of “The Organization Man” 1 Innovation and Growth in the U.S. Economy 7 ICT Industries 16 The Top 20 Old Economy and New Economy Companies 26 NEBM as a Force for Unstable and Inequitable Economic Growth 33 2 The Rise of the New Economy Business Model 39 Origins of the Microelectronics Revolution 39 Evolution of the NEBM 42 3 The Demise of the Old Economy Business Model 81 Old Economy Employment Relations in the 1980s 81 The Destruction of “Lifelong” Employment at IBM 83 The End of “The HP Way” 89 Lucent’s Failed Transition to NEBM 98 Success and Failure in the Transition to NEBM 110 4 Pensions and Unions in the New Economy 115 Security through Seniority 115 The Transformation of Pensions in ICT 117 IBM 121 Unions 128 The Absence of Unions in NEBM 144 5 Globalization of the High-Tech Labor Force 149 Offshoring 149 Education and Growth in Asia 151 Brain Drain 156 The Historical Role of U.S. FDI in Stemming the Asian 162 Brain Drain South Korea’s Reversal of the Brain Drain 166 Malaysia’s FDI-Driven Development 176 Evolution of IT Services in India 178 Indigenous Innovation in China 182 Global Labor Flows and National Economic Development 190 vii Lazonick.indb 7 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM 6 The Quest for Shareholder Value 197 NEBM and the Stock Market 197 Maximizing Shareholder Value 200 A Critique of the Shareholder-Value Perspective 203 The Five Functions of the Stock Market and Innovative Enterprise 215 Why Do Companies Repurchase Their Own Stock? 241 7 Prospects for Sustainable Prosperity 249 “Market Forces” Are Not Natural Phenomena 249 The Limited Role of the Stock Market in the Old Economy 252 The Stock Market in NEBM: From Innovation to Speculation 255 to Manipulation The Rise of Economic Insecurity 258 The Problem of Minority Education and Employment 269 Corporate Governance for Sustainable Prosperity 273 References 277 The Author 325 Index ? About the Institute ? viii Lazonick.indb 8 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM Figures 1.1 U.S. Unemployment Rates, Percent of the Relevant Labor Force, 11 1947–2007 1.2 Gini Coeffi cient for All U.S. Families, 1947–2007 14 1.3 Changes in the Relative Incomes of Selected Income Percentiles 15 in the U.S. Distribution of Income, 1967–2007 1.4 Shares of the Top Income Earners of the Total U.S. Income, 16 1913–2002 1.5 Employment in Four ICT Industrial Classifi cations, 1994–2006 19 1.6 Real Wages (in 2000 dollars) in Four ICT Industrial Classifi cations, 20 1994–2006 2.1 Three Waves of Silicon Valley Semiconductor Start-Ups, 43 1955–1985 2.2 Objectives of Ongoing Stock-Option Programs, ICT Companies 53 Operating in the United States, 1996–2003 2.3 Full-Time Employees in the Semiconductor Industry, Silicon 57 Valley, Route 128, Dallas, and Oregon, 1994–2006 2.4 Full-Time Employees in Software Publishing, Silicon Valley, 58 Route 128, Dallas, and Washington State, 1994–2006 2.5 Real Wages (in 2000 dollars) in the Semiconductor Industry, 59 United States, Silicon Valley, Route 128, Dallas, and Oregon, 1994–2006 2.6 Real Wages (in 2000 dollars) in Software Publishing, United 60 States, Silicon Valley, Route 128, Dallas, and Washington State, 1994–2006 2.7 Coevolution of Venture Capital Entrants and Semiconductor 70 Start-Ups in Silicon Valley, 1957–1983 6.1 Net Corporate Equity Issues (billions of 2007 dollars) in the 206 United States by Nonfi nancial Corporate Business and by Selected Financial Sectors, 1980–2007 6.2 Ratios of Cash Dividends and Stock Repurchases to Net Income 232 and Mean Dividend Payments and Stock Repurchases among the S&P 500, 1997–2007 7.1 DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite Indices, July 1986– 257 October 2008 (monthly data) ix Lazonick.indb 9 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM 7.2 Stock-Price Movements for (Panel A) Cisco Systems (March 259 1990–October 2008) and Intel and Microsoft (July 1986–October 2008) and for (Panel B) Intel and Microsoft (July 1986–October 2008) Tables 1.1 Real GDP per Capita in Selected Nations Compared with the 8 United States, 1950–2006 1.2 Average Annual U.S. Corporate Stock and Bond Yields (%), 13 1960–2007 1.3 Old Economy Business Model (OEBM) and New Economy 17 Business Model (NEBM) in ICT Industries 1.4 U.S. Exports and Imports of ICT Products, Relative to All 21 Advanced Technology Products (ATP), 2002–2007 1.5 U.S. ICT Companies among the Global Top 100 R&D Spenders, 22 2004 and 2005 1.6 Employment, 1996 and 2000–2005, at the Top 20 Old Economy 28 Companies by 2005 Sales 1.7 Employment, 1996 and 2000–2005, at the Top 20 New Economy 30 Companies by 2005 Sales 2.1 Stock Options Outstanding as a Percent of Common Stock 55 Outstanding, Selected U.S. ICT Companies, 2000–2007 2.2 Average Gains (thousand U.S. dollars) per Top 5 Executive from 62 the Exercise of Stock Options, Selected U.S. ICT Companies, 1995–2007 2.3 Average Gains (in U.S. dollars) per Employee (excluding the top 5) 64 from the Exercise of Stock Options, Selected U.S. ICT Companies, 1995–2007 2.4 Ratios of Average Top 5 Gains from the Exercise of Stock Options 65 to Average Gains of Other Employees, Selected U.S. ICT Companies, 1995–2007 4.1 U.S. Pension Plans in 2005 of the Top 20 New Economy 118 Companies by Sales 4.2 Retirement Plans in 1985 and 2005–2006 of the Top 20 Old 122 Economy ICT Companies by Sales in 2005 4.3 Union Membership in the Top 20 Old Economy ICT Companies, 129 2005 x Lazonick.indb 10 7/31/2009 8:42:35 AM 5.1 Doctoral Degrees Awarded per 100,000 Population, Aged 25–34, 155 Most Recent Available Year, for Selected Asian Countries and the United States 5.2 Highest Levels of Educational Attainment, Percentage of the 183 Population 25 Years Old and Over, China and India, 1980 and 2000 6.1 Top 50 Repurchasers of Stock, 2000–2007, among Corporations 234 in the S&P 500 Index in January 2008 6.2 Payout Ratios and R&D Intensity Compared with Repurchases 237 Intensity for the Top 50 Repurchasers of Stock, 2000–2007, among Corporations in the S&P 500 Index in January 2008 xi Lazonick.indb 11 7/31/2009 8:42:36 AM Lazonick.indb 12 7/31/2009 8:42:36 AM Preface As I write this preface in March 2009, the United States is in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The Obama administra- tion has established a massive stimulus package to get the economy back on track. As I show in this book, however, there are fundamental problems with the U.S. economy that predate the current crisis. Even in recovery, the U.S. economy will not generate stable and equitable growth—or what I call “sus- tainable prosperity”—unless these problems are fi xed. For the past three decades the distribution of income in the United States has become more unequal, with a hugely, and some might say grotesquely, disproportionate share of total national income now going to the very richest households.