McMahon, Margery A. (2000) Changing relations: Russia's relations with Ukraine and Belarus. PhD thesis. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/2457/ Copyright and moral rights for this thesis are retained by the author A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Glasgow Theses Service http://theses.gla.ac.uk/ [email protected] Changing Relations Russia's Relations with Ukraine and Belarus by Margery A. Me Mahon BA, M.Phil. Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Presented to The Institute of Central and East European Studies University of Glasgow April 2000 (c) M A N1c Mahon 2000 Abstract In the period of transition which followed the collapse of the USSR, the states of that region were forced to make many political and economic adjustments. A crucial part of the process was the restructuring of relations among these formerly fraternal republics and as they became in 1991, independent states. F or most states structuring relations with Russia became a priority since it is the largest and most dominant regional actor. Such relations are shaped by a number of factors including historical development, economic legacies and geopolitical concerns. These issues have impacted upon the evolving relationship between Russia and its Slav neighbours, Ukraine and Belarus. Drawing on a common background in terms of historical political, economic and cultural development, Russia's relations with these states developed to the point where they were formalized in a Russian Belarusian Community (1996) and a Russian Ukrainian Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation (1997). The impetus for Russia to renegotiate its relations with the states on its western borders was strengthened by the proposed eastward expansion of NATO. Belarus and Ukraine however benefited from this. Belarus was guaranteed cheap supplies of Russian natural resources, vital for its economy, even if this came at the cost of ceding a degree of sovereignty. Ukraine, still excluded from European political and economic organizations was recognized by Russia as independent state and significant regional influence. Russia secured a buffer zone on its western borders. Russia's relations with Ukraine and Belarus are now qualitatively different. Ukraine has emerged as a potential allYarn:I.~en future rival to Russia while Belarus has opted to become a Russian ciienfstate with, it appears, the ultimate goal of union with Russia. Acknowledgements I am indebted to a number of people who have assisted and encouraged me during my studies. Particular thanks go to the staff of the Institute of Central and East European Studies, notably my supervisor Mrs Tanya Frisby and to Professor Stephen White, Department of Politics, who read and advised on several chapters. Dr James Whites provided support and encouragement from an early stage. I am also grateful to the University of Glasgow for its fmancial support in the form of a Doctoral Scholarship and assistance for overseas trave1. Thanks also to Mrs Kay McWalter for administrative assistance. Friends and family have been especially supportive throughout my research. I would also like to thank my husband, Greg and my parents for their confidence and support throughout this project. Changing Relations Russia's Relations with Ukraine and Belarus Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction, research rationale and orientation pl-8 Chapter 2 Russia's Relations with Ukraine and Belarus in Historical Context p9-53 Chapter 3 Emerging Partners: Relations among the Slav Republics 1985-91 p54-102 Chapter 4 Independence and Reintegration: The CIS and its impact on the relationship between the Slav nations after 1991 pl03-136 Chapter 5 Geopolitics and Russia's Relations with Ukraine and Belarus p137-174 Chapter 6 Maturation of relations between Russia, and Ukraine and Belarus 1996 & 1997 p175-210 Chapter 7 Statehood and Status: Perceptions of Statehood and Relations between Russia, and Ukraine and Belarus p211- 226 Chapter 8 Conclusion p227-232 Appendix 1 p233-234 Appendix 2 p235 Appendix 3 p236-248 Appendix 4 p249 Appendix 5 p250-p253 Appendix 6 p254-255 Bibliography p256- 272 List of Tables Table 1 Share of Ethnic Russians in overall population of Ukraine and Belarus 1989 p38 Table 2 Republics' share in the total gross output of the Union p39 Table 3 Belarus' % share in all union production 1989 p41 Table 4 Ukraine % share of all union production 1989 p43 Table 5 Volume of Trade (%) by Republic in internal market and with non USSR I CMEA partners. p44 Table 6 Total Industrial Output of Russia's key Industries p45 Table 7 Russia's Exports to Ukraine and Belarus as percentage of overall trade with Soviet Republics p48 Table 8 Russia's Imports from Ukraine and Belarus as percentage of its overall trade with Soviet Republics p48 Table 9 Results of All Union Referendum on Preservation of the Union p68 Table 10 Direct Russian Investment in Ukraine as percentage of overall foreign investment in Ukraine p 127 Table 11 Direct Ukrainian Investment in Russian Federation as percentage of overall Ukrainian investment p 127 Tables 12&13 Russia's Trade (Exports and Imports) with Ukraine and Belarus as % of overall exports to CIS states 1987-97 p128-129 Table 14 Russia's Financial Aid to Rouble Zone States 1992-93 p133 Table 15 Russia's Aid to Republics most populated by Russians p133 Table 16 Percentage Share of Ethnic Russians in overall population of Republic 1989 p144 Table 17 Republics' Share of Ethnic Russians 1989 (Ranked) p144 Table 18 Russian Aid to Republics most populated by Russians as Percentage of Republic's GDP p145 Table 19 Top Ten Destinations for Russian Exports (1995) (CIS & Non CIS) p191 Table 20 Top Ten Sources of Russian Imports (1995 (CIS and Non CIS) p192 Table 21 Ukraine's Foreign Trade with CIS states in 1995 p193 List of Abbreyiations Used BPF Belarusian Popular Front DB Democratic Block (Ukraine) CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CPE Centrally Planned Economy CPSU Communist Party of the Soviet Union CPU Communist Party of Ukraine FSU Fonner Soviet Union FYP Five Year Plan NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NIS Newly Independent States OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe RB Republic of Belarus RCB Russian Central Bank RF Russian Federation RSFSR Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic RMFA Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs SCPE Soviet Centrally Planned Economy START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty UDB Ukrainian Democratic Block UHU Ukrainian Helsinki Union WTO Warsaw Treaty Organization Chapter 1 Introduction When the USSR collapsed in 1991, the submerged nations which had been contained or suppressed by communism emerged as nation states. The legitimacy of claims to nation state status was undisputed in several instances, notably Russia, the former centre of the Tsarist and Soviet empires and the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, whose forcible incorporation into the USSR in 1940 had since been acknowledged and condemned by all, even Russia. Some nations, chiefly Ukraine, had a history of movements striving for striving for national autonomy and even independence but had experienced these only briefly in the past, if . at all. Others however had weaker claims to legitimacy, borne of their artificial construction within the so called federation that was the USSR. Amongst these are included the Central Asian states and Belarus, the third of the Slavic states of the European part of the USSR. I The three states examined in this thesis fit into each of these categories. Russia, with a largely incontestable right to statehood; Ukraine with a strong sense of national destiny but only limited experience of statehood, and Belarus, with an under-developed sense of national identity and consciousness. The issue of legitimacy and strong historical and sociopolitical foundations for independence was to be of great importance in the consolidation of nation statehood in the post independence period. For these new states, independence meant a restructuring programme - abandoning the centrally controlled political and economic systems of the Soviet era and replacing them with a pluralist democracy and free market economy. Some have progressed more rapidly than others and this is due to a number of factors. The success of Russia is attributed to the favourable infrastructure created by the Soviet regime as well as its plentiful resources. For the Baltic states, their experience of independence in the interior period had a strong impact on their post-Soviet adaptation, as well as favourable infrastructures. However these factors alone do not guarantee success. Both Ukraine and Belarus boast comparatively well developed infrastructures and sufficient resources yet have been less successful in their economic restructuring. This is partially explained by a strong predilection for Soviet style politics and economics, most evident in Belarus but also acting as a restraint on more radical reform in Ukraine. The involvement of western financial and political institutions (e.g. The International Monetary Fund and the Council of Europe) as well as Western governments (e.g. the British Government's 'Know How Fund') in the restructuring process led academics, politicians and the Western media to focus primarily on internal political and economic developments once key international issues such as nuclear weapons had been resolved. By and large this reflected a Russo-centric approach recognising that Russia was the dominant state in the region of the former Soviet Union (FSU).