MONITORING EVALUATION & Republic of Zambia Ministry of National Development Planning FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN DETAILED REPORT DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Republic of Zambia Ministry of National Development Planning SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN FINAL EVALUATION REPORT Detailed Report September, 2018 2 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Foreword The Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan covered the period 2011-2016. The Change of Government from the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to the Patriotic Front (PF) following the 2011 general elections, necessitated the revision of the Sixth National Development Plan. The revision of the Plan was meant to ensure that national development was guided by the principles contained in the PF Manifesto. The theme for the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP) was “Sustained economic growth and poverty reduction”, while the theme for the Revised Sixth National Development Plan (R-SNDP) was “People centered economic growth and development”. The SNDP focused on accelerating infrastructure and human development, enhancing economic growth and diversification, and promotion of rural development. However, the R-SNDP focused on skills development, science and technology, agriculture, livestock and fisheries, energy and infrastructure development, particularly transport infrastructure while enhancing human development through increased investment in water, sanitation, education and health. To benefit from the lessons learnt during the implementation of the Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan, my Ministry commissioned an ex-post evaluation of the Plan. The objectives of the evaluation included; I. Assessment of the outputs, outcomes and impacts of the Plan II. Assessment of the coordination, implementation and monitoring mechanisms of the Plan, and III. Documentation of key lessons learned and recommendations for consideration in future. This evaluation, and the results thereof reaffirms government’s commitment to the principles of transparency, relevance, efficiency and effectiveness in the development and implementation of national development plans. It further reaffirms government’s resolve to state not only successes scored with each plan, but also challenges encountered during implementation to learn lessons for improvement in future. This evaluation is in line with the provision of the Planning and Budgeting Policy of 2014, and the Planning and Budgeting Bill that advocate for ex-post evaluations of national development plans within two years of expiry. i DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN The findings in this report are both positive and negative. While we celebrate the positive findings, we are not deterred by the negatives as they help us to sharpen our planning and implementation processes. This will lead to better outcomes for the benefit of the people of Zambia. I urge all stakeholders, including development partners, civil society, line ministries, provinces, districts and the general citizenry to read and make full use of the findings and recommendations in this report to accelerate the implementation of the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP). Hon. Alexander Chiteme, MP Minister of National Development Planning. LUSAKA September, 2018 ii DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Acknowledgments The evaluation of the Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan involved broad stakeholder engagements and consultations. We wish to extend profound appreciation and thanks to all line Ministries, Provincial and District administrations that provided insights and information on the implementation of the Plan to the evaluation team. We also acknowledge with great appreciation the various stakeholders including; Civil Society, Academia and Cooperating Partners, and all other institutions and individuals for allocating time for fruitful discussions and providing valuable information during the evaluation process. Special appreciation is extended to the team of consultants led by Dr. Birgitte Woel, and comprising Dr. Yves Frausum, Dr. Jolly Kamwanga and Mr. Joss Swennenhuis for their objective, critical analyses and presentation of facts, culminating into this valuable and well researched report. We acknowledge the guidance and support provided by the multi-sectoral Evaluation Reference Group constituted to support the evaluation process. We also acknowledge the dedication of staff of the Ministry of National Development Planning; particularly, the Monitoring and Evaluation Department for coordinating this important exercise. We further acknowledge the role played by Dr. Sam Mwaura of GOPA mbH in providing technical backstopping to the evaluation team. On behalf of the Government of the Republic of Zambia, we express sincere gratitude to the European Union (EU) for providing financial support for the exercise. The production of this report shows the commitment by Government to assess the effectiveness of national policies, plans, programmes and projects at all levels in order to continuously work towards achieving set development outputs and outcomes for the country. Mushuma Mulenga (Mr.) Chola J. Chabala (Mr.) Permanent Secretary Permanent Secretary Development Cooperation, Development Planning Monitoring and Evaluation and Administration September, 2018 iii DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Contents Foreword i Acknowledgments iii Abbreviations and Acronyms ix Executive Summary 1 1.0 Context of the SNDP/R-SNDP 15 1.1 Goals and Strategies of National Plans 15 1.2 Structural Reforms 16 1.3 Monitoring and Evaluation Context 17 2.0 Evaluation Objectives, Scope and Methodology 19 2.1 Scope of Work 19 2.2 Methodology 20 3.0 Findings – Enablers 22 3.1 Governance Systems and Structures 22 3.1.1 Coordinating the SNDP and R-SNDP 22 3.2 Zambia Macro-economy 28 3.2.1 Macro-economy during the SNDP/R-SNDP 28 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations – Zambia’s Macro Economic Performance Conclusions: 37 4.0 Findings - Key Development Areas 40 4.1 Infrastructure 40 4.1.1 Transport sector 40 4.1.2 ICT sector 46 4.1.3 Energy sector 51 4.1.4 General infrastructure findings 55 4.1.5 Conclusions and recommendation - Infrastructure 56 4.2 Manufacturing, Commerce and Trade 58 4.2.1 Manufacturing 58 4.2.1.1 Conclusions and Recommendations 66 4.2.2 Commerce and Trade 67 4.2.2.1 Conclusions and Recommendations – Commerce and Trade 69 4.3 Mining 70 4.3.1 Profile of the Mining sector 70 4.3.3 Conclusions and Recommendations - Mining 75 4.4 Science, Technology and Innovation 76 4.4.1 Profile of Science, Technology and Innovation in Zambia 76 4.4.2 Science, Technology and Innovation in the SNDP/R-SNDP 76 4.4.3 Performance of Science, Technology and Innovation during the SNDP/R-SNDP period 78 iv DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 4.4.4 Conclusions and Recommendations 80 4.5 Agriculture 81 4.5.1 Agriculture in the SNDP/R-SNDP 81 4.5.2 Crop sub-sector 82 4.5.3 Livestock & Fisheries 86 4.5.4 Agribusiness and trade 89 4.5.5 Institutional aspects 91 4.5.6 Sectoral Budget 91 4.5.7 Agro-related Impact 92 4.5.8 Conclusions and Recommendations 93 4.6 Lands and Natural Resources 95 4.6.1 Lands Administration 96 4.6.2 Natural Resource Analysis 96 4.6.3 Natural Resource Related Impact 98 4.6.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Lands & Natural Resources 99 4.7 Tourism 100 4.7.1 Tourist trends 100 4.7.2 Tourism sector analysis 101 4.7.3 Impact 103 4.7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Tourism 104 4.8 Health 105 4.8.1 A profile of the health sector 105 4.8.2 Primary health care 108 4.8.3 Social Health Insurance 114 4.8.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Health 115 4.9 Water and Sanitation 116 4.9.1 Sector Coordination 117 4.9.2 Water resources management and infrastructure development 117 4.9.3 Research and Development 118 4.9.4 Integrated water resources management 118 4.9.5 National Water Supply and Sanitation Programme 119 4.9.6 Conclusions and Recommendations - Water & Sanitation 123 4.10 Education 124 4.10.1 Performance analysis 125 4.10.2 Early Childhood Education 125 4.10.3 Primary education 126 4.10.4 Secondary Education 129 4.10.5 Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TEVET), Community Learning Centres 131 4.10.6 University Education 132 4.10.8 Conclusions and Recommendations - Education 134 4.11 Social Protection 136 4.11.1 Impact 143 v DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 4.11.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Social Protection 143 4.12 Gender Mainstreaming 145 4.12.1 Impact 148 4.12.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Gender 149 5.0 Findings - Cross-cutting issues 151 5.1 Environmental Protection 151 5.1.1 Conclusions and recommendations 153 5.2 Monitoring and Evaluation 154 5.2.1 Monitoring 154 5.2.2 Evaluation 157 5.2.3 Conclusions and Recommendations - M&E 157 6.0 Overall Conclusions 159 6.1 Cross-cutting Conclusions 159 6.2 Achievements against Objectives 161 6.2.1 Employment, Job Creation and Rural Development 161 6.2.2 Rural Development 162 6.2.3 Human Development 163 6.2.4 Infrastructure 163 6.3 Micro-level Effects and Impact 164 6.3.1 Poverty Reduction Focus and main Economic Activities Implemented 164 6.3.2 Performance Assessment and Perceptions by Beneficiaries of the Plan Implementation and Achievements 165