Revised Sixth National Development Plan Final Evaluation Report

MONITORING EVALUATION&

Republic of Zambia Ministry of National Development Planning

FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

DETAILED REPORT DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Republic of Zambia Ministry of National Development Planning

SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

FINAL EVALUATION REPORT Detailed Report

September, 2018

2 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Foreword

The Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan covered the period 2011-2016. The Change of Government from the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to the Patriotic Front (PF) following the 2011 general elections, necessitated the revision of the Sixth National Development Plan. The revision of the Plan was meant to ensure that national development was guided by the principles contained in the PF Manifesto.

The theme for the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP) was “Sustained economic growth and poverty reduction”, while the theme for the Revised Sixth National Development Plan (R-SNDP) was “People centered economic growth and development”. The SNDP focused on accelerating infrastructure and human development, enhancing economic growth and diversification, and promotion of rural development. However, the R-SNDP focused on skills development, science and technology, agriculture, livestock and fisheries, energy and infrastructure development, particularly transport infrastructure while enhancing human development through increased investment in water, sanitation, education and health.

To benefit from the lessons learnt during the implementation of the Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan, my Ministry commissioned an ex-post evaluation of the Plan. The objectives of the evaluation included;

I. Assessment of the outputs, outcomes and impacts of the Plan II. Assessment of the coordination, implementation and monitoring mechanisms of the Plan, and III. Documentation of key lessons learned and recommendations for consideration in future.

This evaluation, and the results thereof reaffirms government’s commitment to the principles of transparency, relevance, efficiency and effectiveness in the development and implementation of national development plans. It further reaffirms government’s resolve to state not only successes scored with each plan, but also challenges encountered during implementation to learn lessons for improvement in future. This evaluation is in line with the provision of the Planning and Budgeting Policy of 2014, and the Planning and Budgeting Bill that advocate for ex-post evaluations of national development plans within two years of expiry.

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The findings in this report are both positive and negative. While we celebrate the positive findings, we are not deterred by the negatives as they help us to sharpen our planning and implementation processes. This will lead to better outcomes for the benefit of the people of Zambia.

I urge all stakeholders, including development partners, civil society, line ministries, provinces, districts and the general citizenry to read and make full use of the findings and recommendations in this report to accelerate the implementation of the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP).

Hon. Alexander Chiteme, MP Minister of National Development Planning. LUSAKA

September, 2018

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Acknowledgments

The evaluation of the Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan involved broad stakeholder engagements and consultations. We wish to extend profound appreciation and thanks to all line Ministries, Provincial and District administrations that provided insights and information on the implementation of the Plan to the evaluation team. We also acknowledge with great appreciation the various stakeholders including; Civil Society, Academia and Cooperating Partners, and all other institutions and individuals for allocating time for fruitful discussions and providing valuable information during the evaluation process.

Special appreciation is extended to the team of consultants led by Dr. Birgitte Woel, and comprising Dr. Yves Frausum, Dr. Jolly Kamwanga and Mr. Joss Swennenhuis for their objective, critical analyses and presentation of facts, culminating into this valuable and well researched report.

We acknowledge the guidance and support provided by the multi-sectoral Evaluation Reference Group constituted to support the evaluation process. We also acknowledge the dedication of staff of the Ministry of National Development Planning; particularly, the Monitoring and Evaluation Department for coordinating this important exercise. We further acknowledge the role played by Dr. Sam Mwaura of GOPA mbH in providing technical backstopping to the evaluation team.

On behalf of the Government of the Republic of Zambia, we express sincere gratitude to the European Union (EU) for providing financial support for the exercise.

The production of this report shows the commitment by Government to assess the effectiveness of national policies, plans, programmes and projects at all levels in order to continuously work towards achieving set development outputs and outcomes for the country.

Mushuma Mulenga (Mr.) Chola J. Chabala (Mr.) Permanent Secretary Permanent Secretary Development Cooperation, Development Planning

Monitoring and Evaluation and Administration September, 2018

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Contents

Foreword i Acknowledgments iii Abbreviations and Acronyms ix Executive Summary 1

1.0 Context of the SNDP/R-SNDP 15 1.1 Goals and Strategies of National Plans 15 1.2 Structural Reforms 16 1.3 Monitoring and Evaluation Context 17

2.0 Evaluation Objectives, Scope and Methodology 19 2.1 Scope of Work 19 2.2 Methodology 20

3.0 Findings – Enablers 22 3.1 Governance Systems and Structures 22 3.1.1 Coordinating the SNDP and R-SNDP 22 3.2 Zambia Macro-economy 28 3.2.1 Macro-economy during the SNDP/R-SNDP 28 3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations – Zambia’s Macro Economic Performance Conclusions: 37

4.0 Findings - Key Development Areas 40 4.1 Infrastructure 40 4.1.1 Transport sector 40 4.1.2 ICT sector 46 4.1.3 Energy sector 51 4.1.4 General infrastructure findings 55 4.1.5 Conclusions and recommendation - Infrastructure 56 4.2 Manufacturing, Commerce and Trade 58 4.2.1 Manufacturing 58 4.2.1.1 Conclusions and Recommendations 66 4.2.2 Commerce and Trade 67 4.2.2.1 Conclusions and Recommendations – Commerce and Trade 69 4.3 Mining 70 4.3.1 Profile of the Mining sector 70 4.3.3 Conclusions and Recommendations - Mining 75 4.4 Science, Technology and Innovation 76 4.4.1 Profile of Science, Technology and Innovation in Zambia 76 4.4.2 Science, Technology and Innovation in the SNDP/R-SNDP 76 4.4.3 Performance of Science, Technology and Innovation during the SNDP/R-SNDP period 78 iv DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

4.4.4 Conclusions and Recommendations 80 4.5 Agriculture 81 4.5.1 Agriculture in the SNDP/R-SNDP 81 4.5.2 Crop sub-sector 82 4.5.3 Livestock & Fisheries 86 4.5.4 Agribusiness and trade 89 4.5.5 Institutional aspects 91 4.5.6 Sectoral Budget 91 4.5.7 Agro-related Impact 92 4.5.8 Conclusions and Recommendations 93 4.6 Lands and Natural Resources 95 4.6.1 Lands Administration 96 4.6.2 Natural Resource Analysis 96 4.6.3 Natural Resource Related Impact 98 4.6.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Lands & Natural Resources 99 4.7 Tourism 100 4.7.1 Tourist trends 100 4.7.2 Tourism sector analysis 101 4.7.3 Impact 103 4.7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Tourism 104 4.8 Health 105 4.8.1 A profile of the health sector 105 4.8.2 Primary health care 108 4.8.3 Social Health Insurance 114 4.8.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Health 115 4.9 Water and Sanitation 116 4.9.1 Sector Coordination 117 4.9.2 Water resources management and infrastructure development 117 4.9.3 Research and Development 118 4.9.4 Integrated water resources management 118 4.9.5 National Water Supply and Sanitation Programme 119 4.9.6 Conclusions and Recommendations - Water & Sanitation 123 4.10 Education 124 4.10.1 Performance analysis 125 4.10.2 Early Childhood Education 125 4.10.3 Primary education 126 4.10.4 Secondary Education 129 4.10.5 Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TEVET), Community Learning Centres 131 4.10.6 University Education 132 4.10.8 Conclusions and Recommendations - Education 134 4.11 Social Protection 136 4.11.1 Impact 143

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4.11.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Social Protection 143 4.12 Gender Mainstreaming 145 4.12.1 Impact 148 4.12.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Gender 149

5.0 Findings - Cross-cutting issues 151 5.1 Environmental Protection 151 5.1.1 Conclusions and recommendations 153 5.2 Monitoring and Evaluation 154 5.2.1 Monitoring 154 5.2.2 Evaluation 157 5.2.3 Conclusions and Recommendations - M&E 157

6.0 Overall Conclusions 159 6.1 Cross-cutting Conclusions 159 6.2 Achievements against Objectives 161 6.2.1 Employment, Job Creation and Rural Development 161 6.2.2 Rural Development 162 6.2.3 Human Development 163 6.2.4 Infrastructure 163 6.3 Micro-level Effects and Impact 164 6.3.1 Poverty Reduction Focus and main Economic Activities Implemented 164 6.3.2 Performance Assessment and Perceptions by Beneficiaries of the Plan Implementation and Achievements 165 6.5 Achievements against the Focus of 7NDP 168

7.0 Lessons Learned and Overall Recommendations 169

ANNEX 1: 172 ANNEX 2: 176 ANNEX 3: 177 ANNEX 4: 184 ANNEX 5: 210 ANNEX 6: 219 ANNEX 7: 230 ANNEX 8: 237

KEY PERSONS INVOLVED IN THE PREPARATION OF THE REPORT 247

Evaluation Reference Group Members for SNDP/R-SNDP Final Evaluation 248

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List of Tables

Table 1 - Methods and stakeholders 20 Table 2: GDP growth targets and actual performance 30 Table 3 - Sector contributions to growth (2010-2016) 31 Table 4- MTEF assumptions and actual outcomes for domestic revenue, total expenditure 32 and functional budget allocation (million Kwacha) Table 5 - Cash receipts of the Government 33 Table 6 - Regional dimension – mean Household Income as a proportion of mean Zambia 34 Household Income Table 7 - Synthesis of KPIs 35 Table 8 - Provincial contribution (%) to the Industrial Added Value 2015 (current prices) 59 Table 9 - Inter-sectoral linkages in agriculture and manufacturing (K million, 2010) 60 Table 10 - Annual Budget and actual Expenditure of Ministry of Commerce, Trade and 61 Industry (K’ million) Table 11 - Composition of Manufacturing Sector (Current Prices) and Real Growth 64 Table 12 - Top ten export markets for Zambia in 2010 (and compared with 2016); percent- 69 age of total exports Table 13 - Selected exports of Zambia 2017 (value) 71 Table 14 - Inter-sectoral linkages in mining (K million, 2010) 72 Table 15 - Mining in the SNDP (2011-2015) (billion ZMW) 73 Table 16 - Annual Budget and actual Expenditure of Ministry of Mines and Mineral Devel- 73 opment (million K) Table 17 - Annual Budget and actual Expenditure of Ministry STCTI, Department of Sci- 78 ence and Technology (mill. K) Table 18 - Budget performance (Expenditure as % of Budget) 78 Table 19 - Budgets and disbursements within the agricultural sector in 2016 92 Table 20 - Top ten causes of Mortality in Health institutions over a period of 5 years for all 106 ages Table 21 – Human Resource Department staffing establishment and gaps, 2011 and 2016 110 Table 22 - Performance of the resources management and infrastructure development 118 programme Table 23: Attendance Rates in Early Childhood Education by Province, Zambia 2015 126 Table 24: Attendance Rates in Primary School by Province, Zambia 2015 127 Table 25: Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) in Primary School by Province, Zambia 2014 127 Table 26: Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) in Secondary School by Province, Zambia 2014 130 Table 27 - Matrix of fiscal space strategies, selected countries 137 Table 28 - Zambia’s GII for 2015 relative to Selected Countries and Groups 148

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List of Figure

Figure 1: 3G coverage and extent of fibre infrastructure in Zambia in 2016 47 Figure 2: Electricity generation 2013 to 2016 52 Figure 3: Trends in Electricity Exports and Imports during SNDP 54 Figure 4: Production and Yield Trends during SNDP/R-SNDP for Selected Crops 82 Figure 5: Annual growth rate in the agricultural sector during SNDP/R-SNDP 83 Figure 6: Crop diversification trend for selected crops during SNDP/R-SNDP 84 Figure 7: Livestock growth and diversification during SNDP 86 Figure 8: Trend in Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture Production during SNDP/R-SNDP 88 Figure 9: Net agricultural export during SNDP/R-SNDP 89 Figure 10: Contribution of different commodities to agricultural exports during SNDP/R- SNDP 90 Figure 11: Budgets and Disbursements in the Agricultural Sector 2003 to 2016 as Percent of Overall Government Budget 92 Figure 12: Main tourism trends during SNDP 101 Figure 13: Spending by leisure tourists (left) and business tourists (right) in Zambia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe 102 Figure 14: 2012-2014 National medicines budget 108 Figure 15: Human Resource Development deficits by category, 2011 and 2016 110 Figure 16: Percentage of Fully Immunized Children under One Year of Age 111 Figure 17: ART uptake among Adults and Children 112 Figure 18: Trend in Maternal Mortality Ratio, 1996-2013/14 113 Figure 19: Government Health sector budget 2011-2016 115 Figure 20: Commercial Utilities’ performance 120 Figure 21: Performance of the Devolution Trust Fund 121 Figure 23: Rural access to safe water, 2011-2015 122 Figure 22: Urban access to safe water, 2011-2015 122

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Abbreviations and Acronyms

AfDB African Development Bank AG Auditor General AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ANC Ante-Natal Care ARV Antiretroviral Treatment CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CEEC Citizens Economic Empowerment Commission CP Cooperating Partner CSO Central Statistical Office CSOs Civil Society Organisations CU Commercial Utilities CVRI Central Veterinary Research Institute DAC Development Assistance Committee DBZ Development Bank of Zambia DDCC District Development Coordinating Committee DHID Department of Housing and Infrastructure Development DTF Devolution Trust Fund DWA Department of Water Affairs EFSP Expanded Food Security Programme EIA Environmental Impact Assessment ERB Energy Regulation Board ESGP Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme FDI Foreign Direct Investment FGD Focus Group Discussions FISP Farmer Input Support Programme FRA Food Reserve Agency FSP Food Security Pack GAVI Global Alliance on Vaccine Initiative GDP Gross Domestic Product GHE Government Health Expenditure GReSP Groundwater Resources Management Support Programme GrIMS Groundwater Information Management System GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia G2B Government-to-Business G2C Government-to-Customer G2G Government-to-Government ha hectare HH Household HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IAPRI Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute ICT Information and Communication Technology IDSP Irrigation Development Support Programme IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development

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IFI International Financial Institutions IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System IMCI Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses IMF International Monetary Fund IMR Infant Mortality Rate INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPP Independent Power Producers IPT Intermittent Presumptive Treatment IRS Indoor Residual Spraying ITN Insecticide Treated Net IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management KPI Key Performance Indicator KRA Key Results Area LCMS Living Conditions Monitoring Survey LFS Labour Force Survey L400 Lusaka 400 (urban roads programme) LME London Metals Exchange MCTI Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MEWD Ministry of Energy and Water Development MFEZ Multi-Facility Economic Zone MLGH Ministry of Local Government and Housing MMD Movement for Multiparty Democracy MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio MP Member of Parliament MOF Ministry of Finance MOH Ministry of Health MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises MT Metric Ton MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework NDP National Development Plan NER Net Enrolment Ratio NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NISIR National Institute for Scientific and Industrial Research NWASCO National Water Supply and Sanitation Council OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OVC Orphaned and Vulnerable Children PACRA Patents and Companies Registration Agency PDCC Provincial Development Coordinating Committee PF Patriotic Front PHC Primary Health Care PLWD People Living with Disabilities PPP Public Private Partnership PPP Purchasing Power Parity PTR Pupil Teacher Ratio x DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

PWAS Public Welfare Assistance Scheme REA Rural Electrification Authority R&D Research & Development RGC Rural Growth Centre RRU Rural Roads Unit R-SNDP Revised Sixth National Development Plan RTO Research and Technology Organizations RTSA Road Transport and Safety Agency SAG Sector Advisory Group SHI Social Health Insurance SIDA Swedish International Development Agency SMAG Safe Motherhood Action Group SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises SOE State-Owned Enterprise SRF Strategic Research Fund STI Science, Technology & Innovation SUCA Scaling up Conservation Agriculture 7NDP Seventh National Development Plan SNDP Sixth National Development Plan TAZARA Tanzania Zambia Railway Authority TB Tuberculosis TEVET Technical, Entrepreneurial, Vocational Education and Training THE Total Health Expenditure UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development UFW Unaccounted for Water WARMA Water Resources Management Authority WB World Bank WDI World Development Indicators WHO World Health Organisation WTO World Tourism Organisation WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council ZARI Zambia Agriculture Research Institute ZAWA Zambia Wildlife Authority ZDA Zambia Development Agency ZDHS Zambia Demographic and Health Survey ZEMA Zambia Environmental Management Agency ZPPA Zambia Public Procurement Authority

DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Executive Summary Since 2006, Zambia’s National Development Plans (NDPs) are underpinned by the strategic long-term development document; the National Vision 2030, launched in 2006. The aspiration of the Zambian people, as expressed in Vision 2030, is to be a prosperous middle-income nation. Considering that Zambia is today already a lower middle-income country – as per the World Bank classification of economy – the target is a tripling of per capita income compared to the base year. This is envisaged to be achieved through higher economic growth, a decline of the population growth rate and reduced levels of poverty by 2030.

Since the launch of the Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP) in 2011 a new government was elected, which saw a need for revising the SNDP resulting in the Revised Sixth National Development Plan (R-SNDP). This was aimed at refocusing development priorities and policies to be more people- centred and to support job creation and rural development. There are thus two Plans covering respectively the period 2011-2013 and 2014-2016.

The theme of the SNDP was “Sustained economic growth and poverty reduction”. This was to be achieved through accelerated infrastructure and human development, enhanced economic growth and diversification and promotion of rural development. The distinction between outcome and inputs is thus clear.

The theme of the R-SNDP was “people centred economic growth and development”. The R-SNDP had a rural development orientation and was focused on investing in a few selected sectors that would have the greatest impact on job creation, rural development and inclusive growth.

The R-SNDP was complemented by an Implementation Plan, which was an initiative to identify specific programme outputs to be delivered by various sectors. The development of the Implementation Plan arose from the experience and the challenges faced in the implementation of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP). The Implementation Plan was expected to provide the basis for budgeting and execution of R-SNDP programmes. The FNDP evaluation findings and challenges were translated into 11 key FNDP evaluation recommendations. This evaluation has, among others, assessed whether the recommendations have resulted in corresponding changes in the SNDP implementation.

Scope and design of the SNDP/R-SNDP (2011-2016) evaluation

Following the expiry of the SNDP/R-SNDP, the Government of the Republic of Zambia through the Ministry of National Development Planning commissioned a final evaluation of the Plan to assess and provide lessons for future Plans. This evaluation report documents the extent to which the Plan objectives were attained, including lessons learnt, and recommendations for future Plans. The overall objective of the evaluation was to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the performance of the Plan, paying particular attention to the implementation progress and intended outputs, outcomes and impacts.

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The specific objectives of the evaluation were to:

• Assess the implementation of the Plan policies, programmes and projects, paying particular attention to outputs, outcomes and impacts; • Assess the implementation, monitoring and coordination mechanisms of the Plan; • Assess the relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, impact, coordination and sustainability of the implemented policies, programmes and projects; • Document key lessons learnt; and • Propose recommendations in order to improve on the development trajectory of the current Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) and future NDPs.

The data collection involved desk review of key documents, interviews with key stakeholders at central, provincial and district levels, complemented by Focus Group Discussion (FGDs) with Provincial Development Coordinating Committee (PDCC) members, District Development Coordinating Committee (DDCC) members, defined groups of beneficiaries, and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs). In terms of coverage, the Evaluation Reference Group proposed inclusion of four provinces in the data collection. These were: Northern Province (Kasama and Mungwi); Western Province (Mongu and Kalabo); Lusaka Province (Lusaka and Chongwe) and North Western Province (Solwezi and Kalumbila). The data were collected using a mixed-method approach comprising desk review, semi-structured interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The key informants were relevant central level actors, PDCC and DDCC members, relevant devolved levels, CSOs and beneficiaries.

Key Findings

Governance Systems and Structures

Coordination: National Development Planning Framework can be broken into three components: (i) A Central Coordinating Agency for National Development Plan (formally, role played by the Ministry of Finance, and subsequently assumed by the Ministry of National Development Planning), and sectors, which provide technical guidance for formulation, monitoring and evaluation of national Plans; (ii) provincial level, to some extent, with delegated authority to superintend the implementation of sector Plans; and (iii) district level, which are responsible for implementation and monitoring of progress on various development interventions.

During the Plan period, there were numerous ministerial mandate changes that resulted in reallocation of resources. Because of lack of well-established community structures for coordination of development at the local level, there was limited appreciation of SNDP/R-SNDP as a planning document. From the beneficiaries, it was established that people tended to discuss the Plan in very general terms and were not specific on the programmes and projects contained thereof.

Lack of clarity in governance structures at local authority level also contributed to coordination challenges; so, too, did differences in the pace of implementing decentralisation among the various sectors. Coordination challenges ranged from ambiguities between sector plans and policies, varying levels of decentralisation, overlapping mandates among sectors, and budget constraints to support inter-sectoral initiatives.

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Macro-economy: During the period under review, Zambia was classified by the World Bank as a lower middle-income country. Income distribution however remains highly unequal and stark differences exist between the provinces.

In some aspects, Zambia has achieved socio-economic transformation, such as the high; investment rate, electricity consumption per capita, fertilizer consumption per ha and life expectancy at birth. The high investment rate and electricity consumption can, however, be explained by high capital and energy intensity of the mining sector.

In other areas, the transformation is yet to be completed. Specifically regarding manufactured exports as a percentage of total exports, contribution of manufacturing to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), density of roads (km per 1000 population) and tertiary education enrolment and completion. Zambia is near the threshold for secondary education enrolment. The picture is, however, mixed with regard to agricultural yields: country-wide yields are low although commercial farmers achieve significant yields.

Statistics indicate that Zambia’s inflation rate has been consistently above 5% (target) but remained in single digit levels until 2015 and 2016 when the country experienced double-digit inflation levels. Furthermore, the exchange rate saw significant swings after the year 2015. The “Government recognizes that excessive exchange rate volatility can have an adverse impact on output, inflation and external competitiveness of the economy”. During the period under review, interest rates had been persistently high (the nominal average lending rate was in excess of 20% in four out of six Plan years and hitting 29.5% in December 2016. The Balance of Current Account had been positive over the early years of the Plan except for the last two years (2015 and 2016) when a significant deficit was recorded. The GDP growth rate ultimately fell to slightly lower than the population growth rate, indicating the need for more robust macroeconomic policies to support achievement of planned development outcomes.

Infrastructure: The SNDP had a strong focus on infrastructure development, in particular in the areas of transport, ICT and energy. Compared to the FNDP and the original SNDP, more resources were allocated to the construction of new infrastructure during the R-SNDP. Maintenance of existing infrastructure also needed to be given attention to ensure sustainability.

The relevance of improved infrastructure for economic development was obvious. However, during the period under review, transport infrastructure development was largely equated with construction of new roads, whereas in a country like Zambia with a large mining sector it could well be argued that railway infrastructure development should also be a priority.

ICT and energy infrastructure development were rightly prioritised as a key infrastructure sector, in particular the extension of mobile phone network and electricity grid to rural areas in support of the objective of rural development. This set the agenda for economic transformation.

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The effectiveness of most infrastructure projects, in terms of achievement of expected socio-economic outcomes, could not be ascertained because most of the projects started during the period were yet to be completed. Observably, the focus on construction of new infrastructure without due attention to the maintenance of existing infrastructure poses a risk to long term sustainability prospects.

Manufacturing: The share in planned expenditure of the SNDP programmes allocated to the growth sector of Manufacturing was around 0.21 percent. The billions of Kwacha, in which planned expenditure were reported at the time, should not obscure the fact that planned expenditure for projects/activities in Manufacturing (over 5 years of the Plan) amounted to only 1.19 Euros per capita (2011 population and average exchange rate for 2011). The total investment may not be sufficient to lead to significant transformative changes to the economy.

In the R-SNDP, manufacturing was not mentioned as a core programme. It is recognized, though, that this sector is a driver of job creation and does benefit from infrastructure development in the sectors of Transport, Water and Energy.

The evaluation established that unlike other countries in transition that experience expansion of the manufacturing sector driven by primary industrial production, Zambia’s manufacturing sector composition manifests a low-technology orientation. Notwithstanding, a large share of food/ beverages/tobacco also points to the intrinsic comparative advantage of Zambia in food/beverages/ tobacco processing. With regard to industrial clusters and business incubators which were a key component to drive manufacturing, no evidence was found of full establishment and functionality of these.

Conclusively, the impact of the public expenditure on manufacturing had been marginal over the Plan period. There was, however, increased private sector investment in food and beverages sub-sector as evidenced by introduction of diverse food and beverage products on the market and growth in exports of these to neighbouring countries. This entails mobilising significant public and private investment in this areas in order to allow manufacturing to drive value addition to the primary resources (minerals, timber, agriculture, fisheries and livestock) generated by the economy. However, broadly speaking, the portfolio of policies in place are sufficient to drive industrial and manufacturing growth. The limitations in most policy areas pertained to the budgets available to achieve the set policy outcomes. The Development Bank of Zambia holds a small portfolio of investment resources, but needs to be complemented by other financing sources of financing to sufficiently capitalise the manufacturing sector.

Commerce and Trade: Commerce and Trade had a designated chapter in the SNDP. The R-SNDP, did not, however, include a separate chapter on Commerce and Trade. The strategic focus under the SNDP was to promote value addition to locally produced goods for increased foreign market earnings. The instruments used to promote the strategies under commerce and trade were; Private Sector Development Reform Programme; Commerce/Trade and Industrial Policy; Micro, Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (MSME) Development Policy; National Quality Policy, and the Intellectual Property Policy.

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The enhancement of non-traditional exports was not achieved because of challenges associated with insufficient public resource allocation to programmes that were aimed at the implementation of policy interventions to promote non-traditional exports. This was compounded by the low number of exporters willing to take risk necessary to achieve total productivity levels that are required to generate sufficiently high volumes of production and diverse goods and services for export. Total productivity implies: a product or service that meets efficacy of cost control, product/service innovation, flexibility of the production system, and commercial aggressiveness. The actions are intrinsically sustainable, but must be multiplied, better targeted, and supported by a business upgrading programme which aims to boost productivity of potential exporters.

Mining: Zambia possesses considerable geological potential. Nevertheless, copper mining overshadows cobalt, nickel, gold, uranium, emerald, rare earths and coal mining. There also exists potential for iron ore, manganese and phosphate extraction. Zambia is the world’s sixth largest copper producer.

In the SNDP, the goal was “To raise the sector’s contribution to GDP to at least 20 percent by end-2015.” Strategic focus was on increasing exploration projects, sustainable production and management of mineral resources and increase productivity, increasing value addition, expanding formal employment levels and its overall contribution to GDP. In addition, the sector intended to focus on human development to increase efficiency and safety of mining operations.

As the mining sector is capital intensive, mining companies desire policy stability as opposed to unpredictable changes in the fiscal regime. After the introduction of a mineral royalty -only regime in 2015, an amendment was passed in May, 2016. The amendment bill lowered the royalty rate for copper by setting it at a minimum of 4% and a maximum of 6% depending on the prevailing price for copper. The amendment was applauded by the mining companies.

The combined effect of these initiatives is that copper production might exceed the 1 million tons mark in the near future, assuming that the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price returns to the 7,000-8,000 USD region. If the royalty policy had not been revised in 2016, the counterfactual copper production could have probably been less than what had been recorded.

The planned budget allocation in the SNDP and budgetary outlays for measures to create a conducive environment for mining initiatives in the country were quantitatively insignificant. However, due to existing policy effectiveness, efficiency was achieved.

Technology and Science: The framework under which the SNDP’s ‘Science and Technology’ strategies were conceptualised was based on the understanding that the lead agency would be the National Science and Technology Council, established by the Science and Technology Act of 1997. The NSTC is mandated to direct policy on the development and application of science and technology in the country in line with the National Policy on Science and Technology. The Council was to coordinate various agencies; both public and private to achieve the objectives set out in the SNDP.

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The SNDP’s strategic focus for science and technology was to enhance total factor productivity and to focus on value addition technologies for agro-products and other local raw materials. This entailed enhancing the linkage between research and industry (commercialisation of innovations), increasing human resource capacity in research and development institutions and improving the enabling infrastructure and equipment for promotion of science and technology. The goal was to establish an effective and efficient system for increased productivity and competitiveness by end 2015. The evaluation established that, the pipeline of product development and commercialisation was small, scientists were often seeking “greener pastures”, and the private sector did not intensively uptake outputs of research; a sure indication that the business model of Research and Technology Organizations (RTO) in Zambia is open for improvement.

This is a demonstration of the fact that the economy has yet to mature in this area in order to benefit from a major indigenous drive of Science & Technology. For a foreseeable future the country needs to adopt a two pronged approach; to import mature technologies before becoming a significant technology producer; gradually investing in developing a cadre of researchers through a well-funded Science, Technology, Mathematics and Engineering programme in secondary and tertiary education levels. This has to be complemented by well-resourced Research and Development Fund, and an Innovators’ Fund to motivate scientists to venture into science and technology innovations.

Agriculture: The goal for the agricultural sector was to facilitate the development of a sustainable, diversified and competitive agriculture sector that assures food security at national and household levels, and maximises profits, and the sector’s contribution to GDP.

The SNDP objectives were more focused on productivity, diversification and value-addition. The Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) and Food Reserve Agency (FRA) programmes maintained dominance during the SNDP, as was the case in the previous Plan; the FNDP. This was clearly illustrated in the budget allocations and disbursements (Table 19). The FISP/E-voucher and FRA programmes accounted for 83 percent of total disbursed funds. With another 6.9 percent expended on personal emoluments, only 10 percent of the total funds (including donor funds) was available for all other programmes such as irrigation development, aquaculture development, livestock development, farm blocks, etc.

Considerable delays had been experienced in major programmes like Irrigation Development Support Programme (IDSP), Aqua-parks development, Livestock infrastructure development and Farm Blocks Development. Outputs under these programmes remained far behind expected delivery timeframes. The delays in completion of the interventions, therefore, adversely impacted on prospects of sector diversification.

The evaluation established that, in spite of its challenges, the E-voucher system has had some positive impact on private sector development. It had strengthened the role of agro-dealers in providing agricultural inputs, since farmers could access inputs from dealers more efficiently. The flexibility of the E- Voucher system was hailed as enabling livestock owners to use the vouchers to buy medical supplies for livestock vaccination, rather than awaiting public vaccination schemes which were often irregularly conducted.

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Due to the challenges related to slow implementation of major agriculture diversification programmes, and limited resources allocated to these programmes, the overall impact of the agricultural sector on GDP and on poverty reduction was below Plan expectations.

Nevertheless, the agricultural sector remains the dominant sector in Zambia’s rural areas and is key for rural development. The focus on crop diversification and productivity increase in SNDP was very relevant for poverty reduction. So is the attention for aquaculture and livestock diversification, which both can count on a strong market in urban areas. Given Zambia’s abundant water resources, irrigation and aquaculture have huge development potential, given the right drive and investment by both public and private sector.

Lands and Natural Resources: Lands and natural resources was mainly highlighted in the context of natural resources development and protection. Natural resources were largely equated with forests. The country is also endowed with other natural resources of national and international importance, such as the expansive Kafue and Bangweulu wetlands.

The need to focus on the opening up of areas to support the development new districts from 2012 onwards entailed that resources for land development were redirected towards development of new district boundaries and cartographical mapping. The SNDP programmes saw slow progress due to limited funding and inadequate human resources. For example in 2016, the budget for agroforestry and afforestation was less than ZMW 300,000. Of this small budget, 17% was released. The contribution of the forestry sector to national GDP has been estimated at around 4.7 percent of GDP (UNEP, 2015). Apart from the direct value of timber and non-timber forest products, this also includes estimated values associated with carbon sequestration, with protection against soil erosion, and nature tourism. When also counting multiplier effects, the contribution goes up to 6.3 percent. Rather than an increase in hectares of gazetted forest areas during SNDP, as one of the KPIs proposed, Zambia saw a trend toward de-gazetting of national forests to pave way to socio-economic activities. There were no significant efforts towards afforestation or recovery of degraded areas threatened by human activities and climatic phenomena. Deforestation increased due to increased encroachment of forest reserves, especially along new roads and near towns. Due largely to limited resources, the control of deforestation and related (often unregulated) logging and charcoal production and encroachment remained a challenge.

There was progress in the area of legal reforms as the forestry sub-sector managed to improve the legal framework with a new forest policy and Act. The success of the legal and policy reforms hinge largely on the sector receiving substantial resources for implementation and enforcement of the legal and policy provisions.

Tourism: Although recognised as a growth sector, no dedicated section on tourism was included in the R-SNDP, which also means that no KPIs were defined for tourism.

While the KPIs in the tourism sector have registered some growth, Zambia is still lagging behind neighbouring countries such as Botswana and Zimbabwe. The SNDP set a target of 1,250,000 tourist arrivals in 2016. This was not achieved, with 2016 registering a total of 956,332 international tourists . The majority of international visitors did not come to Zambia for leisure tourism, but for business.

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The tourism industry provided employment to a considerable number of people. The number of reported jobs jumped from around 44,000 to around 57,000 between 2012 and 2013, and then remained more or less constant. The tourism industry also contributed to rural income in Game Management Areas through hunting fees, part of which are disbursed to Community Resource Boards. In 2016 for example the Ministry reported that these disbursements amounted to ZMK 63,798,089.

In terms of contribution to GDP, the tourism sector contributed 2.4 percent in 2012, increasing to almost 3.4 percent in 2016, according to World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) statistics. The continued growth of business tourism in particular is highly dependent on the overall political and business climate in Zambia.

Efficiency was seriously undermined by a number of institutional challenges that included frequent changes in the parent ministry with the mandate for tourism, very low budgets, lack of sector-wide strategic plan and the need to re-integrate wildlife and national parks services into the Ministry.

Health: The vision of the health sector during SNDP was to achieve “Equitable access to quality healthcare for all by 2030”. The goal was “To improve health status of people in Zambia in order to contribute towards socio-economic development by 2016”.

During the review period, Government embarked on a health facility upgrading programme. Specific interventions included construction of 35 districts hospital, division of University Teaching Hospital (UTH) into five (5) hospitals and modernization of 2nd and 3rd level hospitals through improvement of emergency and specialized units, renal, cardiac, cathlab, ICU, and radiotherapy.

Transport limitations continued constraining delivery of health services during period. For instance, only half of the 105 Districts had road worthy utility vehicles. Transport constraints were especially severe for rural based health facilities; with 30% of health centres using motor bikes for service delivery, and some remote health centres used bicycles.

The sector experienced success in some indicators related to safeguarding child health. There was a steady rise in the rate of fully immunized children aged less than one year, having been recorded at 69 percent in 2010, rising up to 72 percent in 2011, 80 percent in 2013 and reaching 91 percent in 2016, against R-SNDP target of 90 percent

Estimated coverage showed that new HIV infections among children declined from 23,000 in 2000 to 8,900 in 2015. The proportion of children living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy was estimated at 34 percent in 2013 and reached 73 percent in 2016, against an R-SNDP target of 90 percent. Corresponding to positive trend in number of children on ART, the estimated number of deaths among children attributed to AIDS also dropped from 12,000 in 2000 to 4,300 in 2015.

A consistent reduction in under-five mortality was observed during Plan period. Under-five mortality declined to 75 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

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The 2013/2014 Zambia Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS) estimated MMR at 398 per 100,000 live births. While appreciating steady decline in maternal mortality during the Plan period, rate of decline was not enough to meet the target of 105 deaths per 100,000 live births.

The Ministry of Health (MOH) Mid-Term Review report, 2015 showed Zambia’s epidemiological profile characterized by high prevalence and impact of preventable and treatable communicable diseases, particularly malaria, HIV and AIDs, Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) and Tuberculosis (TB).

Further, there was a growing burden of Non-Communicable Disease (NCDs), including mental health problems, cancer, trauma, sickle cell anaemia, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic respiratory disorders, blindness and eye refractive defects, oral health problems and maternal and child health problems.

Critical analysis of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) revealed that, most targets in basic health care were not met during the Plan period. Questions arise regarding the appropriateness of disease- focused, as opposed to prevention biased interventions.

It is noteworthy that the post-SNDP health sector seems biased towards primary and community based health interventions marking a departure from a disease treatment- focus in previous years. Water and Sanitation: The SNDP recognized the importance of access to safe water supply and adequate sanitation facilities as catalysts for human development.

The Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) was established to focus on integrated water resource management (IWRM). Despite such initiatives, the urban water sector faced challenges of extending water supply to newly developed residential areas. This was due to increased demand for accommodation resulting from rapid urban population growth. In urban areas, the proportion of population with access to safe water sources increased from 80 percent in 2011 reaching 89.2 percent in 2014 against the R-SNDP target of 88 percent. In rural areas, performance was below expectations as access marginally increased from 61 percent in 2011, reducing to 55 percent in 2014 with an increase to 65.8 in 2015 against R-SNDP target of 80 percent.

Access to adequate sanitation facilities has remained a challenge in urban areas. This was compounded by high levels of urbanisation in Zambia. The situation is especially critical for the urban poor, who rely on unsafe sanitation facilities.

Although there were improvements in coverage of water and sanitation facilities over the Plan period, rural-urban disparities remained wide. The extent of water supply service delivery is contingent on successful extraction, distribution and delivery processes. These processes were, however, not very efficient, as leakages were a common feature, leading to high levels of unaccounted for water, resulting in water shortage, poor hygiene and high prevalence of waterborne diseases.

Education: The Education sector KPIs did not change significantly between the SNDP and the R-SNDP. Only targets changed to reflect a more optimistic, outlook; e.g. 100 percent enrolment in primary school was targeted in R-SNDP. The optimism on the indicators shows in the lack of achievements, although there are improvements against most baselines.

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Under the SNDP framework, the education sector National Implementation Framework (NIF) III provided a comprehensive sector development plan with clear targets, aligned with the National Vision 2030, as well as with the fourth Sustainable Development Goal; to ensure inclusive and quality education for all. In addition, a review of the Education Policy was commenced in 2016.

There were 34 KPIs in the R-SNDP used to measure annual performance of the Education and Skills Development sector spread across the various levels of education.

In 2013, ZMW 5,555 million was allocated to the sector, representing an increase of about 14.5 percent in the total budget allocation compared to the ZMW 4,850 million in 2012.

During the R-SNDP implementation period, the Education sector was the second best performing sector with an average KPI achievement rate of 39 percent. In terms of the mean progress rate, on average the Education Sector was outstanding during the R-SNDP period recording a progress rate of 88.25 percent. This was despite a percentage reduction in the education sector budget from 20 percent in 2015 to 17.2 percent of the overall national budget in 2016. During this period the Sector experienced further reductions in the approved budgets.

The reduction in the resource allocation to education had some effects on education outcomes. An estimated 195,582 Zambian children were out of school in 2013 . Furthermore, the transition rate to upper secondary education had fallen steeply from 50 percent in 2007 to 37 percent in 2014.

During the R-SNDP, only the indicators on Early Childhood Education met the targets, while the gender parity in primary school education was close to target.

During the SNDP the number of registered institutions providing technical education, vocational and entrepreneurship training (TEVET) increased to 268 in 2016 from 230 in 2012. As a result, the TEVET completion KPIs were met for both males and females.

In the period 2012-2013 the number of registered universities increased from 23 to 29, with a total enrolment of 22,399 representing an average of 2.8 percent increase. The overall female enrolment was around 66 percent. At the end of the R-SNDP, the Sector enrolled a total of 59,272 students in the public universities. For both TEVET and University education the mismatch between skills provided and the market demand was noticeable.

Cutting across all levels of education, the summary shows that in 2013 preliminary statistics revealed that out of 16 Key performance indicators that were used to measure annual performance of the Education and Skills Development Sector only 7 were met. In 2016 Education and Skills had 26 KPIs measured, while 8 were missing. Out the KPIs 12 were met and 14 were not met. The main reasons for under-achievements was strong focus on construction, halt in deployment of teachers and subsequently overall high PTR affecting the education quality negatively. Despite these challenges the Sector had overall progressed from 2013.

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Social Protection: During the Plan period, social protection focus was overall in tandem with the same key interventions although some programme titles changed. The aim was to enable households to ‘graduate’ from social protection support by building their assets and increasing their resilience to shocks and stresses. Existing strategies, however, were hampered by lack of knowledge on the optimal numbers to be targeted and the needs of poor households.

During the SNDP, the sector rapidly increased coverage of the Social Cash Transfer Scheme to all the districts in the country. This was complemented by an unprecedented rise in the number of beneficiaries. This led to the setting of very optimistic performance targets. Overall six KPIs reflected the desired progress in the Sector under the R-SNDP of which only one met the target by the end of the Plan, representing a 17 percent achievement rate. Only the social cash transfer target was exceeded and thus met. The total progress during the R-SNDP was at 12.1 percent .

During the R-SNDP the achievement of KPIs achieved 50 percent in 2014, but a mere 17 percent in both 2015 and 2016. The low numbers of beneficiaries on the various social protection schemes made it difficult to significantly reduce rural poverty. This is observed in the numbers from the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) which found that the incidence of extreme poverty stood at a national average of 40.8 percent with an incidence in rural areas of 60.8 percent, which is five times greater than the estimated urban levels at 12.8 percent .

The assistance per capita was minimal and characterised by predominantly small grants and unconditional cash transfer or farm inputs; none of which encourage or sufficiently support graduation from the schemes.

With a recorded 2 million vulnerable people in Zambia and an outreach of only 12% under the social cash transfer and an outreach of less than 2% for youth (aged 15-35 years), capacity development of the generation that should carry the Zambian growth was therefore, substantially affected.

Gender mainstreaming: The attempt to introduce gender mainstreaming through the Gender Policy (2014) was meant to ensure that all ministries and Government agencies mainstreamed gender in all programmes . The most officials interviewed for the evaluation from line ministries, provinces and districts expressed limited knowledge of gender mainstreaming. It was mainly understood as production of gender disaggregated data and not as gender mainstreaming in design of activities, acknowledging and taking into account gender differences in capacities, interests and needs.

Gender was paid special attention during the entire period under evaluation. The SNDP had four key performance indicators (KPI) relating to Gender-Based Violence (GBV), women in decision-making, women’s access to Citizen’s Economic Empowerment Commission (CEEC) and women employment in the formal sector. The KPIs were carried forward in the R-SNDP. Two additional KPIs were added, namely Percentage of women with titled land and Gender Parity Index, at; Primary, Secondary and Tertiary levels of education.

During the R-SNDP, the Ministry of Gender achieved key milestones in 2016, including the implementation of the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development through the commencement of enacting the Gender Equity and Equality Act.

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During the Plan period, the lack of inter-sectorial coordination between Ministry of Gender and line ministries in introducing sector and inter-sectorial gender mainstreaming activities led to efforts having less or no synergy, and, thereby, not being impactful. Coordination of gender mainstreamed efforts at central level would set the frame for gender mainstreaming at provincial and district levels, and thus be of direct benefit both for staff at devolved level with resulting impact for the beneficiaries. Environmental protection: Environmental protection issue received very little attention in the Plan. The Plan stated intentions of mainstreaming all cross cutting issues including environment into sector-specific implementation plans. Overall the R-SNDP implementation plan, however, did not reflect mainstreaming of environmental protection, there was no reference anywhere to the subject, and no general or sector-specific KPIs were defined. This made it impossible to assess performance with regard to mainstreaming environmental protection.

The 2013 Annual Progress Report showed that the level of compliance with environmental regulations was at 43 percent against a target of 55percent, while the percent of solid waste collected and correctly disposed of, was at 48percent against a target of 50percent with no data on greenhouse inventory.

Assessing results for the environment was hampered by lack of reporting on this sector. Suffice to note that the 2016 Zambia Environment Management Agency (ZEMA) Annual Report was available for use in evaluation.

Auditor General’s report of 2014 indicated a lack of effective regulation by ZEMA in mining sectors, with mines not complying with environmental regulations. The effectiveness of ZEMA was negatively affected by institutional challenges such as frequent changes at top management level.

Monitoring and evaluation: Both the SNDP and R-SNDP intended to support development of human resources in Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), which would be a prerequisite for development of a fully operational national M&E system. In both Plans there was provision for capacity building of human resources. During the SNDP some training took place at the Institute of Economic and Social Research under the University of Zambia, which took place although without delivering fully as planned. The details of this were not obtainable at the source. The consequence was that staff responsible for M&E had limited understanding of the importance of the data and correct data handling, resulting in low quality and inconsistent data for evidence-based planning.

The SNDP planned for rigorous reporting comprising Monthly Reports, Quarterly National Performance Reports, Sectoral Performance Reports, Project Spot Monitoring and Annual Progress Reports. It should be noted that development is rarely measurable by month, or even by quarter, so reporting with this frequency would be highly resource demanding with little to be seen. Only Annual Progress Reports were mostly prepared.

In terms of independent reviews only ex-post of an end of plan evaluation was planned for in the Plans. Indicators in both Plans reflected mainly output level achievements, which, on their own, are insufficient for assessing the desired changes, which should be captured primarily through outcome and impact indicators. The R-SNDP had text parts for most sectors, which narratively indicated the targeted outcomes. Yet these outcome texts had no specific outcome indicators logically linked to particular programme and project activities and articulating how the outcomes would be achieved.

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This made it difficult to ascertain if job creation, rural development, human development and other similarly stated outcomes were actualised.

The use of records or output data for cross-analysis and establishing of cause-effect relationships of achievements was a daunting task. This made it difficult to effectively state the extent to which the broad outcomes of the Plan were achieved.

A considerable number of KPIs had missing data and were not consistently reported on throughout the period of Plan implementation.

Key recommendations

All KRAs have specific conclusions and recommendations, while more overall key lessons learned and recommendations are found in chapter 7. Noticeably, the overall recommendations given in this evaluation do not differ significantly from those given in the evaluation of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP).

In summary the key recommendations include the following:

1. Planning must be supported by accurate data, appropriate theories of change and realistic assumptions of expected outcomes and impact of planned programmes and interventions. 2. Planning should take into account dynamics related to population size and distribution, macroeconomic conditions and opportunities, as well as effective implementation of structural, policy and legal reforms. 3. There is need for market relevant and responsive education and skills training in order build a human resource base that is relevant to needs of industry. 4. Research and innovation must relate to the development agenda and must be matched with requisite financial resources. 5. There is need to set optimistic, but realistic and achievable targets, based on critical analysis of past trends and capacities and resource availability. 6. Identified programmes in the NDPs must be matched with resources for their effective and complete implementation. 7. Emphasis must be placed on more emphasis on cross-sectoral thinking and inclusion of cross- cutting issues whether planning for macro-economic, sectors or internal capacity. 8. There is need to accelerate the achievement of sustainable change in living conditions by delivering fully functional infrastructure. This has to be planned hand in hand with the full staff complement and the required equipment, with and complimentary budgets for maintenance of the infrastructure and equipment. 9. There is need to fully implement the decentralisation policy. This requires undertaking change and risk management processes and sensitisation to enable central government and district staff transferred to local government structures to embrace the change and smoothly fit into their new roles. Therefore, sensitization programmes for devolved workers is critical and must be implemented at all levels. 10. There is need to develop coordinated national M&E strategies providing all necessary details with regard to design, capacity requirements with a view to enable evidence-based planning.

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Such efforts should entail committing resources, enabling quality data collection, effective data handling and inter-sectoral analysis of data. These will help in making focused M&E capacity development across all sectors and at all levels of government and is likely to achieve more efficient planning, resulting in higher value for money. 11. There is need for continued capacity development across all sectors and levels of government. This should involve:

• Development of systems and structures for design, implementation and monitoring of inter- sectoral activities with the view to have synergy and implicitly more value for money. This should be followed by training of key sector staff at central and devolved levels in using these systems and structures and in collaborating across sectors.

• Substantial strengthening of the capacity of the staff involved in M&E at provincial, district and institutional level as high quality key data are pivotal for informed planning and informative evaluations.

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1.0 Context of the SNDP/R-SNDP

Zambia is categorized as a low middle-income country, which is seen in some of the socio-economic transformations, such as the (high) investment rate, electricity consumption per capita, fertilizer consumption per ha, and life expectancy at birth. However, the high investment rate and electricity consumption can be explained by high capital and energy intensity of the mining sector.

In other areas, the transformation has yet to be completed. This includes manufactured exports as a percentage of total exports, the contribution of manufacturing to GDP, the density of roads (km per 1000 population), and tertiary education enrolment. Zambia is near the threshold for secondary education enrolment. The picture is mixed with regards to agricultural yields: country-wide, the yields are low for most of the crops in Zambia.

Urban population (as a share of total population) is somewhat below the average of middle income countries, although high compared to other African countries. The population density of the City of Lusaka is rather low (5,467/km2), which is an indication that Lusaka develops horizontally rather than vertically.

1.1 Goals and Strategies of National Plans

The paradigm shift of the 1990s evidenced by privatisation and liberalisation, and the advent of new challenges (e.g. climate change) and trends (technological progress and globalisation), did not change the long-term objectives for Zambia; focused on economic growth, social development and poverty reduction.

The Sixth National Development Plan (SNDP 2011-2016) was preceded by the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP 2006-2010) the theme of which was “Broad Based Wealth and Job Creation through Citizenry Participation and Technological Advancement”. The strategic focus was “Economic Infrastructure and human resources development”. The FNDP was characterized by high real Gross Domestic Product growth rates averaging 6.0 percent.

The theme of the SNDP was “Sustained economic growth and poverty reduction”. This was to be achieved through three objectives: Infrastructure and human development, enhanced economic growth, and diversification and promotion of rural development.

The SNDP period was characterized by relatively high economic growth; in 2011 and 2012 the country achieved real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 6.6 percent and 7.3 percent, against targeted growth rates of 6.4 percent and 7.0 percent, respectively. This was very impressive economic growth. However, the growth did not translate into improved living conditions for the majority of the population, as rural poverty levels remained high at 78.2 percent (CSO; 2015).

The distinction between outcome and inputs is thus clear. While recognizing the importance of all sectors, the SNDP contained only sector programmes that were identified as critical to achieving the overall objectives of the Plan. The SNDP, however, had a short lifespan, having been replaced with the Revised SNDP (R-SNDP;

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2013-2016), following the change of Government from the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) to the Patriotic Front (PF) in 2011. The revision of the Plan was aimed at refocusing Government priorities and policies in line with the PF development agenda. The theme of the R-SNDP was “People centred economic growth and development”. The R-SNDP had a rural development orientation and was focused on investing in a few selected sectors that would have the greatest impact on job creation, rural development and inclusive growth.

The objectives of the R-SNDP were:

a) To promote employment and job creation through targeted and strategic investments in selected sectors; b) To promote rural development by promoting agricultural development, rural enterprises and providing support infrastructure in rural areas; c) To enhance human development by investing in the social sectors; and d) To accelerate infrastructure development to enhance the growth potential of the economy.

The objective of Infrastructure Development, Rural Development and Human Development must be regarded as inputs, while Employment and Job Creation were intended outcomes of the inputs.

A key distinguishing characteristic of the R-SNDP was the realization that the population had not significantly benefited from the dividends of economic growth and that pro-active measures needed to be implemented in order to overcome this challenge. While appreciating the importance of letting market forces drive economic growth, it was envisaged that the public sector had a role to play in achieving broad based economic growth. The R-SNDP was deliberately tailored towards addressing market failures by enhancing the role of the Government, especially through public investments targeted at rural areas.

The theme of the current Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) is “Accelerating development efforts towards Vision 2030 without leaving anyone behind”. The key outcomes include economic diversification and job creation, poverty and vulnerability reduction, reduced developmental inequalities, enhanced human development and an enhanced governance environment for a diversified and inclusive economy. The Plan has adopted four (4) strategic objectives which are a) An inclusive and diversified economy, b) Environmental and social sustainability, c) Competitiveness and innovation, d) Strengthening of mechanisms and capacities.

1.2 Structural Reforms

Following the attainment of independence, in 1964, Zambia opted for a command economy characterized by NDPs, nationalization, Zambianisation, import licensing and export licensing, import substitution policies, establishment of State-Owned Enterprises, interest rate control, exchange rate control and foreign exchange allocation. This was pursued in tandem with a policy that sought self- sufficiency in the country’s staple food; maize, monopoly over the supply of agricultural inputs, price controls and subsidies. This policy was to be funded by the country’s mineral exports. However, mining production declined such that in 1991 production was only half of the peak recorded in 1969. Economic diversification, therefore could not be sustained. The Fourth NDP was abandoned in 1990.

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In 1991, Zambia returned to an economy based on market principles. Market liberalisation (interest rates, the exchange rate, foreign trade, maize and fertilizer marketing) followed as well as privatisation, public sector reform and fiscal reform. Zambia benefited from debt reduction in 1993 and debt cancellation in 2005. In 2002, a 3-year Transitional National Development Plan was adopted as the springboard to the Fifth NDP (2006-2010) which set a basis for re-introduction of structured planning with set socio-economic development targets.

Overall, the pace of policy reforms was slow due to weak institutional capacity. The essential pre- conditions for success includes an enabling institutional environment, policy consistency and unwavering leadership that pushes for results.

The Sixth NDP period saw substantial efforts in policy and institutional reform. A number of sector strategies were formulated, with some legislation amended and some enacted. The evaluation established that the system of enforcement of legislative and policy provisions needs to be strengthened in order to enable socio-economic transformation.

Assessing the effectiveness of each of these reforms and strategies was beyond the scope of the evaluation. Therefore, the wider analysis in annex 4 focuses on a few areas, indicating their importance to economic objectives of macroeconomic stability, growth, structural transformation, promotion of equity, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability.

Annex 6 lists most reforms and sector strategies undertaken in Zambia with a detailed analysis of their performance against respective goals, feasibility, complexity, implementation and other variables relevant to the effectiveness and efficiency of the individual policies.

1.3 Monitoring and Evaluation Context

The SNDP aimed at coordinating and strengthening M&E activities and capacities of planners and other key staff in various sectors including those at national, provincial and district levels. Parliament, Auditor General’s Office, Ministry of Local Government and Housing and District Councils were incorporated into the data flow chart (M&E Institutional Framework), as key institutions that should provide oversight . The evaluation established that the M&E function was weak, not only with regard capacities related to effective data collection systems, but also in terms of knowledge, skills, equipment and availability of time for data collection and processing.

The R-SNDP changed the flow of data and emphasized on the role of M&E. This was supported by a brief description of the systems and structures that should be applied . This was all meant to be guided by an M&E policy. This strengthening of the national M&E systems and structures did not take place as intended, mainly as a result of lack of resources. As a result, the data collection had no dedicated budgets at national, sector and sub-national levels. Further, there was limited data analysis practice and, therefore, no structured information produced about inter-ministerial synergies or other cause-effect analysis of performance.

The revision of the SNDP resulted in development of a new sets of indicators, and generally the Plan suffered from insufficient correspondence between Key Result Areas (KRA), Key Performance

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Indicators (KPI) and sector Objectives. In addition, indicators generally reflected output level results, which could not provide data on outcomes and thus of progress towards achievement of long term development Objectives .

The type and frequency of monitoring and reporting described in the Plan was ambitious in view of the low endowment in Monitoring and Evaluation capacities in the institutions expected to generate the data for in-year and annual reporting. However, the Annual Progress Reports were produced as planned.

The detailed findings on SNDP monitoring and evaluation processes are reported in chapter 5.2 while an analysis of the national M&E practices is found in annex 5.

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2.0 Evaluation Objectives, Scope and Methodology

This final evaluation report examines the extent to which the SNDP/R-SNDP objectives were attained, and provides lessons learnt and recommendations for future Plans. The overall objective of the final evaluation was to undertake a comprehensive assessment on the performance of the Plan, paying particular attention to the implementation progress and intended outputs, outcomes and impacts. The specific objectives of the final evaluation were to:

2.1 Scope of Work

The evaluation was two-pronged as follows:

Policy, Reforms, Governance and Coordination • Policy environment • Structural reforms • Governance and institutional environment • Plan implementation and coordination mechanisms

Development Areas: Outputs, Outcomes and Impacts • Key Development Areas • Micro-level Effects and Impact The full details of the scope of evaluation are found in annex 2. Further, the evaluation applied standard OECD-DAC criteria as follows: a) Relevance: relates primarily to the Plan’s design and the extent to which the goals, strategic objectives and stated targets coherently addressed the identified national problems and needs b) Efficiency: relates to how well the various policies, programmes and projects transformed the Plan’s resource envelop into intended results in terms of cost-effectiveness, quantity, quality and timeliness, including a review of the management structures across Government. c) Effectiveness: relates to the extent to which the Plan’s results contributed towards the achievement of the strategic objectives. d) Impacts: relates to among others, employment creation, economic growth and welfare improvements at both national and community level. e) Coordination: The extent to which different actors’ interventions were harmonised to promote synergies, avoid gaps and duplication. f) Sustainability: relates to the positive outcomes of the Plan’s policies, programmes and projects and their likelihood to continue beyond the horizon of the Plan.

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2.2 Methodology

The evaluation used a blend of quantitative and qualitative data while involving stakeholders from Central Government, Local Authorities, Civil Society, Cooperating Partners, and ordinary citizens as beneficiaries of NDP interventions. The application of methods was the following:

Table 1 - Methods and stakeholders Method Stakeholder category Introductory desk review N/A Semi-open interviews Central level stakeholders, provincial and district level stakeholders Open-ended questionnaire - individual Provincial and district stakeholders beneficiaries Semi-structured questionnaire, Focus Group Discussions Beneficiaries

The overall aim was to collect the agreed data, while the choice of qualitative method could be flex- ible without losing validity. Qualitative data can be gathered using different methods while still enabling similar extract of positive and negative experiences with the SNDP/R-SNDP relevant services and impact of the same without losing comparability . Each method is briefly described below.

Introductory desk review The consultants reviewed key national documents relevant to the evaluation of the sixth and Revised Sixth National Development Plan. The documents reviewed form part of the references at the end of the report annexes.

• Vision 2030 • Fifth, Sixth, Revised Sixth and Seventh NDPs • Annual Progress Reports for the period 2011-2016 • Economic Reports for the period 2011-2016 • Labour Force Survey of 2014 • Living Conditions Monitoring Survey of 2015 • Policies relevant for the individual area of expertise

This provided a general understanding of the focus of each NDP and implicitly the situational framework for implementation of the SNDP/R-SNDP.

The desk review findings helped in determining the methodology, which stakeholders to involve at each of the three levels of implementation (central, provincial and district) and in selecting a representative selection of field sites.

Semi-open interviews The template used for semi-open interviews was used as a guiding template. In addition, each team member had individually relevant questions depending on the sector each covered.

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The individual questions were those agreed on with the Evaluation Reference Group (ERG) during the inception meeting for the SNDP evaluation.

The standard template covered the minimum TOR requirements. The templates used at provincial and district level covered the same item, but with a local approach., It was, however, essential to have the necessary flexibility to add issues which may appear as key to the evaluation.

Introductory questionnaire The work with the FGDs incorporated the use of a swift filling of a smaller questionnaire as an ice- breaker. The questionnaire was filled individually and guided the focus of the succeeding FGDs. The responses added value beyond the direct scope of evaluation questions and did rather add a frame of cultural and social details.

The focus groups consisted of an average of five participants each. The groups comprised various groupings of male/female beneficiaries, different age groups, and people living with disabilities, local leaders and Civil Society Organisation (CSO) representatives – in total 8 different categories of beneficiaries of 5 participants per session. The discussion was guided by questions relevant for each of the Key results Areas (KRAs). The responses were further grouped into positive and negative impact of interventions during the period 2011-2016.

Validation The data were validated using triangulation of data from desk review, semi-open interviews and community data. All data from each of the different levels of implementation: ministries, provinces and districts were compared, and these were compared with the findings at beneficiary levels. The data correspondence is mentioned under the sectors, more so the human development sectors.

Scope of evaluation In terms of geographic scope, data collection was done in selected districts in the following areas: Northern Province (Kasama and Mungwi); Western Province (Mongu and Kalabo); Lusaka Province (Lusaka and Chongwe) and North Western Province (Solwezi and Kalumbila). With regard to the scope of stakeholders, the data collection involved relevant central level actors, and PDCC and DDCC members, relevant devolved level staff, Civil Society Organisation staff and beneficiaries at devolved levels.

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3.0 Findings – Enablers

3.1 Governance Systems and Structures

3.1.1 Coordinating the SNDP and R-SNDP

National Development Planning Framework can be broken into three components: (i) An Apex/ Central coordinating institution for national development planning (role formerly, played by the Ministry of Finance, and subsequently assumed by the Ministry of National Development Planning) in collaboration with sectors ministries, which provide technical guidance for formulation, monitoring and evaluation of national Plans; (ii) Provincial level: Provincial Administration superintend over the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of sector plans and (iii) District levels: District Administration and Local Authorities are responsible for ensuring implementation, monitoring and evaluation of various sector programmes and projects.

National Development Coordination Committee

During the SNDP period, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) undertook the preparation and submission of quarterly reports on key development projects to the Presidency through Cabinet Office. The MoF was also supposed to feed into the National Development Coordination Committee (NDCC), which was supposed to be chaired by the Secretary to Cabinet. There were however, challenges regarding the NDCC performance during SNDP/R-SNDP due to its inability to convene meetings. During the evaluation, both district and provincial levels unveiled frustration at non-effectiveness of the NDCC.

Sector Advisory Groups

Sectors are groupings of ministries and other units which have common/overlapping mandates. During the FNDP period, Sector Advisory Groups (SAGs) were clusters of thematic sectors chaired by Permanent Secretaries. The SAGs were expected to perform an important coordination role, especially for cross-sector issues that required involvement of different Ministries, Agencies and non-state actors. However, a large number of SAGs were structured around ministerial themes rather than on sector-wide basis, a practice that perpetuated compartmentalized planning, budgeting, implementation, and monitoring along ministerial boundaries.

During the SNDP/RSNDP period, most of the SAGs hardly fulfilled their scheduled meetings. Sectors cited lack of funding for meetings, conflicting schedules with other commitments and inadequate terms of reference to guide the work of SAGs. For other sectors, frequent changes to ministry portfolio also impacted SAG meetings, as these changes inevitably meant different sectoral representation. The lack of enthusiasm for SAG meetings was probably accentuated by the presence of parallel policy and technical committee fora which sectors used for agendas similar to that of SAGs. For instance, some ministries such as ministry of Health and Ministry of Education had annual High Level Policy meetings, where policy, programme and related matters were discussed. These meetings had more prominence, as there was evidence that they were held regularly, and mostly, as required by cooperating partners providing support to the sectors.

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Provincial Development Coordinating Committee

The Provincial Development Coordinating Committees (PDCCs) are planning structures at the regional level and are chaired by the provincial Permanent Secretaries. Other members of the PDCCs include heads of government departments, Civil Society Organizations, and Private Sector Organizations, as well as District Commissioners, and District Planning Officers. PDCCs are supposed to play a coordination role, under which consolidated regional plans are developed. This practice was observed to have been happening. However, in reality, vertical planning was also very much prevalent. Sectors, which were not decentralized developed their own sector-based plans derived from ministerial plans or sector-based policies. Others have integrated plans based on sector plans and province- initiated plans for entire provinces. The former represents vertical management from ministry to province, while the latter supports development of the province as an administrative and territorial unit. Information collected at provincial level indicates that a number of provinces use a standard template to integrate provincial-level plans in the process of implementing national development plans. This integration aims at providing a framework for coordinated provincial development and ensuring interlinked strategic plans.

In terms of administration, the provincial Permanent Secretary is a technical head of provincial administration. The overall in-charge is the provincial Minister. Provincial informants observed that staff at Provincial level had limited powers, as sector ministries often made decisions that did not fully reflect views from provinces. Furthermore, provinces tended not to adequately participate in key decision-making processes, as provincial Ministers were not part of Cabinet (This was the case during the SNDP/R-SNDP period, although since 2017, Provincial Ministers attend Cabinet Meetings). It was observed that heads of departments administratively reported to the Provincial Permanent Secretary. On the other hand, they tended to report to the sector Permanent Secretaries on technical matters.

The evaluation established that the number of PDCC participants, and the usually lengthy agendas posed significant challenges on effectiveness of PDCC meetings. Given wide ranging issues that are covered, time allotted for discussion was usually insufficient. This was attested to during field work, where SNDP evaluation team conducted PDCC evaluation meetings. Meetings were attended by a significant number of people, representing all Government units, community and other stakeholders. It was a challenge to get quality time for each sector, as it would have required more time than was allocated. Nonetheless, meetings were informative, as they indicated the potential and challenges of coordinating NDP interventions at provincial level.

Most respondents when asked for their views about the value of the PDCC, observed that PDCC meetings were important for information sharing. They presented a platform for heads of government departments, representatives of parastatal agencies, and non-state actors to know about the various development interventions taking place in the province. This information was used to review activities by various stakeholders and to discuss recommendations for policy action. However, the provincial heads of departments bemoaned their limited capacity to make decisions and having to consistently refer to sector ministries (whom they accused of usurping their authority by dealing directly with project areas and circumventing provincial structures). The evaluation gathered that PDCC members felt that their resolutions had no higher body for recourse. This led to most heads

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of departments referring to the ministerial headquarters, hence defeating the purpose of planning across sectors at provincial level.

District Development Coordinating Committees

District Development Coordinating Committees (DDCC) are composed of all District Heads of Departments, civil society, private sector, local traditional/civil leadership and representatives of Community Based Organisations (CBOs). The DDCC is jointly chaired by the District Commissioner (DC) and Town Clerk/District Council Secretary. The District Commissioners derive their authority from central government, while Town Clerks/District Council Secretaries are technical heads of Local authorities. In terms of mandates, the dividing line between these two positions was not always clear, leaving room for overlaps and inefficiencies. Successful relationships between the central government and local government senior officials largely depended on the personalities involved.

The DCs are not obliged to report on decisions of DDCCs to the District Council. District Council Secretaries are, however, obliged to report decisions of DDCC to the District Council. The duo system of leadership at District level involving District Commissioners and Council Chairpersons often times complicated management of development programmes and projects.

During formulation of the SNDP, DDCCs were asked to formulate district investment plans. Although most of them prepared investment plans, none was effectively implemented. The non-implementation of the decentralisation policy further limited effectiveness of DDCCs. With no legal backing, full benefits of DDCCs were not, therefore, realized. Renewed push for decentralisation implementation during subsequent NDPs will more likely facilitate the implementation of district investment plans.

Area Development Coordinating Committee

At the lower end of planning architecture was the Area Development Coordinating Committee (ADCC), which was supposed to galvanise community inputs for uptake at higher planning levels. In SNDP/R-SNDP period, ADCCs were not functional. In most districts, existing local level structures, such as Constituency Development Fund (CDF) Committees and sector specific structures for devolved sectors, such as Health, Education, Social Welfare, Water and Sanitations carried on with activities. For instance, most areas had local water and sanitation committees, mostly mobilised and funded by NGOs. Such district committees functioned as sub-committees of DDCC. Similarly, health sector utilised Neighbourhood Health Committees, while Education made use of local Parent- Teacher Associations. Although these structures could be used to feed into the planning processes, their mandates were limited to vertical sector ministries. Further, lack of a supportive legislative framework to legitimise these institutions vis-a-vis the DDCC limited their effectiveness in the planning process.

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3.1.2 SNDP/R-SNDP coordination challenges

Plans versus Policies

In general, a plan details strategies and activities that are supposed to be implemented in order to realise a policy objective. A plan also specifies a budget and timeframe for each activity, as well as expected output targets and indicators that can be used to assess whether implementation has been successful or not. It was observed during the evaluation that respondents could not clearly distinguish between policies and plans and could not also clearly indicate whether policies influenced plans or vice-versa. Responses acquired from informants depended to a large extent, on institutional leaning of a respondent. Those from the apex institutions tasked with policy formulation were more likely to indicate that policies precede plans, while planners would tend to claim that plans preceded policies. This lack of clarity about the relationship between polices and plans is equally reflected at provincial and district levels, where ambivalence about the relationship between the two was evident and reinforced by limited knowledge of the SNDP/R-SNDP. Respondents were more knowledgeable about individual sector policies, which guided them in their routine work than National Development Plans. Lack of clear linkages between plans and policies evidently affected the extent to which policy objectives could be attained.

Whether by design or not, policies and plans are crafted in a similar manner, each have general and specific objectives, and can also be accompanied by strategies and implementation plans. Inclusion of implementation plans has increasingly become a common trend in the recent past, marking a departure from past practices, where Plans and Policies were not backed by implementation plans. The key challenge was more often, that sector-level plans did not fully adopt either a clear activity- output-outcome structure or a commonly used logical model. Without a clear results-chain, it would be a challenge to measure results or progress toward realising objectives. A detailed assessment of various policies implemented during the SNDP/R-SNDP period is presented at Annex 6.

Cross-Sectoral Policies

While the National Development Plan approach, with its identification of priority areas, played an important role in focusing development efforts, the SNDP did not fully address gaps in coordination. The structure of overall national development planning remained highly sector-based despite expressing objectives, presented as Key Result Areas, which cut across sectors. Planning in service sectors provide an example of such a gap in specific cross-sectoral strategic coordination. The R-SNDP included a cluster of sectors such as tourism, transportation, telecommunications, finance, education and training, science, technology, culture, and sports. Interconnectedness and interdependencies among sectors is driven by the fact that one service sector usually receives inputs from other sectors and, in turn, provides inputs to many others. The cross-cutting nature of service sector products requires elements of sector plans to be strategically coordinated. Single-sector development plans should reflect contributions of other related sectors. Additionally, there is a need to clarify how other sectors may support development of a given service sector.

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While emphasizing rural development, R-SNDP did not provide a framework for cross-sector planning for rural development. Efforts in rural development included at least the following sectors: healthcare, agriculture, education, social protection, infrastructure (including electricity and roads), affordable financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, transportation, and telecommunications. Experiences elsewhere indicate that weakness in planning and implementation of rural development projects results in wastage of public resources. Coordination in service delivery and economic development policies is thus crucial to achieving a significant impact on rural development.

Budget allocation

Following the separation of Planning and Treasury functions, the Ministry of Finance concentrated on resource mobilization and allocation functions. This is done through use of Medium Term Expenditure and Annual Budget Frameworks. Both MTEF and Annual Budgets are supposed to be related to the NDP. Respondents interviewed during evaluation, indicated that both MTEF and Annual Budgets were not adequately linked to the NDP. They recounted how annual budgets had become rolling budgets, where sectors were requested to review their activities every quarter, on the basis of available resources. The result is that programmes reflected in the NDP are hardly implemented. Budgetary constraints were widely recounted at national, provincial and district levels. At ministerial level, respondents indicated that there was a lack of operational funds to perform their core functions. The problem was even more acute for shared activities, where lead ministries monopolised allocated funds. Not only were funds allocated inadequate, even the little that was available was often disbursed late, and not matched with NDP needs.

Almost all sector, province and district level respondents reported persistent problems related to disbursements from the Ministry of Finance. Funding levels and inconsistencies hindered the implementation of many programmes, with some sectors and activities receiving only partial funding or no funding at all. Poor allocation coordination could be seen in delayed release of funds; stalling or underperforming projects. Another commonly cited cause was a perennial problem of allocation of resources to non-priority areas. Respondents cited political influences in some instances as leading to implementation of projects that were not in the national development plan, resulting in ineffectiveness and spreading of limited resources across too many projects.

Overlapping mandates

There were overlaps in the mandates of some ministries, which caused coordination challenges. During the SNDP, period, there were numerous ministerial mandate changes that resulted in wastage and inefficient budget practices. Some examples: different aspects of the mandate for the Department of Culture were under two ministries; Ministry of Chiefs and Traditional Affairs, and the Ministry of Tourism and Arts. Another case concerned issues to do with children which at one time fell simultaneously under the Ministry of Youth, Sports and Child Development, and the Ministry of Community Development, Mother and Child Health. These changes, which were frequent during an initial phase of R-SNDP posed serious coordination challenges.

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Partial decentralization

Interviews with respondents at national and provincial levels revealed that different sectors were at varied levels of decentralisation, which posed coordination challenges. In certain sectors, line agencies at sub-national level directly implemented plans delegated by headquarters; example of these being health, education, agriculture and community development. In certain sectors, implementation work was delegated to statutory agencies; for instance, the Ministry of Commerce, Trade, and Industry. Coordination challenges were, therefore, common where implementation required cooperation across sectors. Because of lack of well-established community structures at the local level, there was limited appreciation of R-SNDP as a planning document. From the beneficiaries interviewed, it was established that people tended to discuss the Plan in very general terms and were not specific on R-SNDP programmes. Recommendations were thus advanced to ensure that future NDPs are widely disseminated at community level. In one instance, an example was given of the Constitution making process, which was marked by massive civic education and sensitization campaigns among local communities.

While noting positive strides that have been made in implementing the decentralisation policy, there were operational challenges that need to be addressed immediately. Under the new decentralised arrangements, the Town Clerk was supposed to be the controlling officer for the district. This was not, however, actualised during the SNDP because the Public Finance Act had not yet been amended to reflect this. The district funds where therefore, being administered on behalf of the district by the provincial Permanent Secretary, who is appointed as a controlling officer for the province. The trend of the provincial Permanent Secretary performing functions of the Town Clerk continued up to the end of the SNDP period. Further, devolved functions had not been matched with accompanying authority over human resources, as this function was still retained at the central level. These anomalies needed to be urgently addressed in order to enhance implementation of the decentralisation policy.

3.1.3 Conclusions and Recommendations

The National Development Planning Architecture begins from the community, district, and provincial to the national level. The structure is supposed to be used for formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of all national plans. Existing community level structures could be improved. Both district and provincial levels are relatively active, but their effectiveness can be better enhanced by an effective NDCC. Further, lack of clarity in governance structures at local authority level also contributed to coordination challenges; so too did differences in decentralisation levels of various sectors. Coordination challenges range from ambiguities between plans and policies, varying levels of decentralisation, overlapping mandates among sectors, budget constraints and to inter-sectoral imperatives.

Recommendations: i. Although the information referral system in the NDP from the district, province and the national level was in place, its effectiveness could be improved. Consistent concerns expressed about lack of feedback from the national to the district and provincial levels is an area that requires attention.

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ii. Governance structures at district level need to be rationalised so that mandates and authorities regarding management of development interventions by District Commissioners and Town Clerks/District Council Secretaries are clarified. iii. Institutionalisation of ADCC should be expedited, through on-going decentralisation process and the accompanying terms of reference clarified. iv. Ongoing high level policy meetings that some sectors have been holding should be harmonised with the work of other sector/cluster advisory groupings. v. Empowerment of local authorities, under the decentralisation programme should be expedited and enhanced through the granting of fiscal autonomy to local authorities.

3.2 Zambia Macro-economy

Zambia is classified as a lower middle-income country by the World Bank. However, despite the GDP per capita having improved over the years, income distribution remains highly unequal. There are stark differences across the rural/urban dimension and between the provinces (CSO, 2015).

In some aspects Zambia has achieved socio-economic transformation, such as the (high) investment rate, electricity consumption per capita, fertilizer consumption per hectare (ha) and life expectancy at birth. However, the high investment rate and electricity consumption can be explained by high capital and energy intensity of the mining sector.

In other areas the transformation is yet to be completed: manufactured exports as a percentage of total exports, contribution of manufacturing to GDP, density of roads (km per 1000 population) and tertiary education enrolment and completion. Zambia is near the threshold for secondary education enrolment. The picture is mixed with regard to agricultural yields: country-wide yields are low although commercial farmers achieve significant yields. For sorghum and millet, the yields have been low whereas for maize the average yield is comparable to what Europe achieved in the first agricultural revolution.

3.2.1 Macro-economy during the SNDP/R-SNDP

During the period under review, the Zambian government endeavoured to implement specific economic policy objectives. These were articulated in the SNDP. The following are the economic policy objectives:

a) Achieve real GDP growth rates of above 7.0 percent per annum; b) Promote economic diversification and industrialisation, especially in the labour-intensive sectors of agriculture, tourism, manufacturing, and construction; c) Sustain stable single digit inflation progressively reducing to 5.0 percent end year inflation by 2016; d) Increase international reserves to at least 4 months of import cover by end 2016; e) Raise domestic revenue collections to 23.0 percent of GDP, and reduce domestic borrowing to less than 1.5 percent of GDP by end 2016; f) Continue to systematically promote Zambia as an investor friendly destination to attract higher levels of domestic and foreign investment; and

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g) Improve human development by significantly scaling up interventions in the health, education and water and sanitation sectors.

The evaluation of the SNDP/R-SNDP focuses on various aspects of development, development- planning and enables an assessment of SNDP/R-SNDP, essentially at the macro-sectoral level. In order to evaluate the macroeconomic policies of the SNDP/R-SNDP, the following questions were investigated:

1. What has been GDP growth in Zambia from an historical perspective? 2. How have investment and productivity fared? 3. How does productivity in Zambia compare to productivity in other economies? 4. How has labour productivity evolved since Independence? 5. What was growth performance during the Sixth Plan period? 6. To what extent has Planning enabled Zambia to become more resilient to cycles and external/exogenous shocks? 7. What were the achievements during the Sixth Plan period (KPI targets and outcomes)? 8. How much does a planning process cost? 9. To what extent have Plan, MTEF and Annual Budget been correlated? 10. How have public investment and public expenditure on health and education fared during the Plan period? 11. How have the different economic sectors contributed to economic growth? 12. Is diversification away from maize succeeding? 13. Has the poverty profile changed? 14. Have regional disparities diminished? 15. Have jobs been created? 16. Who saves? 17. What have been the trends observed in the last 2-3 years, in the Districts or communities? 18. In the light of the SNDP achievements against targets what has worked well and what has not worked so well with the Planning and Implementation processes?

The method which has been used is data mining was applied to discover patterns in data sets. The key findings are as follows:-

GDP growth, Investment Rate and Productivity and Financial Stability

Analysis of the GDP growth performance during the period under evaluation showed that:-

• Real GDP growth exceeded the target in year 2012 only; growth in 2012 was boosted by public expenditure, as this was the year of the first Eurobond issue. • Growth was low during the R-SNDP period compared to the Plan targets (See Table 2).

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Table 2: GDP growth targets and actual performance Item/ Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Target SNDP >6% >6% >6% >7% >7% Target R-SNDP >7% >7% >7% >7% Revised targets 7% 5% Vision 2030 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% Actual CSO (National Accounts) 5.60% 7.80% 5.10% 4.70% 2.90% 3.6%* CSO: 2017 GDP estimated for 2016

It should also be recognized that the high population growth caused serious stress on infrastructure, health and education services. Population growth of 3% p.a. was certainly beyond the optimum rate. Whereas high population growth can be in part attributed to a declining (crude) death rate, the birth rate was persistently high (indicating a high fertility rate).

Overall, Zambia’s investment rate was high. However, productivity was generally low in the period under review, preceded by higher production from 2002 to 2012. During the SNDP, per capita growth remained marginal and inadequate to drive the transformation envisaged by the Plan.

Cross-country comparison on various indicators related to productivity revealed that the productivity in Zambia operated below the hypothetical productivity frontier and certainly below the productivity of countries with a similar capital intensity. Zambia operated at 50-66% below the productivity possibility frontier, with a likelihood that the distance is up to 80% below the frontier.

Between 2002 and 2010, Zambia experienced on average 15 percent annual price inflation, with seven years of double-digit inflation out of nine. The SNDP set an objective of single-digit inflation (from 7 percent down to 5percent by 2015). Statistics indicate that the country’s inflation rate remained consistently above the 5 percent Plan target but in single digit levels. Single-digit inflation was achieved between 2011 and 2014, with inflation edging up above 10 percent in 2015 and 2016. This was fuelled by Broad Money (M3) increase - and credit to Government - at an annual rate exceeding +20 percent between mid-2015 and mid-2016, at a time when real growth was actually decelerating. Furthermore, the exchange rate saw significant swings after the year 2015. The Government takes cognizance of the fact that excessive exchange rate volatility can have an adverse impact on output, inflation and external competitiveness of the economy. Interest rates had been persistently high (the nominal average lending rate was in excess of 20 percent in four out of six SNDP years and hitting 29.5percent in December, 2016 (Bank of Zambia) The Balance of Current Account had been positive over the early years of the SNDP, except for the last two years (2015 and 2016) when a significant deficit was recorded. The GDP growth ultimately fell to slightly lower than population growth rate indicating the need for more robust macroeconomic policies to support achievement of planned development outcomes.

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Resilience to External Shocks

Initially, Zambia proved immune to the financial crisis. However, during the SNDP period, economic growth slowed down and coincided with lower World GDP growth, declining copper prices, high crude petroleum prices between 2011 and 2014 and falling current transfers from abroad (from 2012). Since the country is highly dependent on rain fed agriculture, crop yields decline when rainfall is below normal, rendering the agriculture sector vulnerable to external/exogenous shocks. This calls for adoption of climate smart technologies and practices to make agriculture production sustainable.

Sector Contributions to Growth

Between 2010, the baseline year, and 2016, the final year of the SNDP, Gross Domestic Product at factor costs (constant prices) increased by K32, billion (See Table 3). The National Accounts revealed that Trade, Public Administration and Other services accounted for two thirds of the absolute increase in GDP (at factor costs). The contribution of Agriculture -where most of the poverty was located-, and Mining- the largest foreign exchange earner- to value added growth was marginal. The contributions of Manufacturing and Construction were, however, relatively good.

Table 3 - Sector contributions to growth (2010-2016) 2010 2016 Contribution to Sector: Value Added at constant 2010 Variation VA growth (at prices Million ZMW Million ZMW factor costs) Agriculture, forestry, fishing 9,158.70 9,101.60 -57.1 -0.20% Mining and quarrying 12,428.70 13,608.60 1,179.90 3.90% Manufacturing 7,367.30 10,455.70 3,088.40 10.20% Electricity and water 1,783.00 2,273.60 490.6 1.60% Construction 9,761.30 13,802.50 4,041.20 13.40% Transportation 5,705.90 4,204.70 -1,501.20 -5% Accommodation and food services 1,599.40 2,390.00 790.6 2.60% Public Administration, health, education 12,624.10 18,292.40 5,668.30 18.70% Other services (excl. trade) 13,817.40 19,324.80 5,507.40 18.20% Trade 17,590.50 28,651.50 11,061.00 36.50% (1) GDP at factor costs 91,836.30 122,105.40 30,269.10 Taxes less subsidies 5,379.60 7,168.30 1,788.70 (2) GDP at market prices 97,215.90 129,273.70 32,057.80 Source: National Accounts Data (CSO), calculations by the Evaluation Team

Public Expenditure

Discussions with stakeholders consistently pointed out implementation problems with regard to the SNDP. An analysis of the correlation between the Plan, Mid-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the annual budget showed wide discrepancies between what was budgeted for in the Plan and in the MTEF and the budget releases and expenditures. The variances in financial contributions from Cooperating Partners also proved to be significant.

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The MTEF underpinned the annual budgets, in turn, the MTEF translated the 5-year Development Plan into 3-year rolling plans. With respect to the MTEF, analysis showed that the actual outcome for GDP exceeded the projection, although this was mostly a monetary illusion as actual inflation exceeded the projection.

Table 4- MTEF assumptions and actual outcomes for domestic revenue, total expenditure and functional budget allocation (million Kwacha) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MTEF GDP 87,756 100,145 109,853 139,113 158,275 178,864 Domestic Revenue 15,868.40 18,529.20 20,440.70 29,478.30 35,405.00 41,025.70 As % of GDP 18.1 18.5 18.6 21.5 22.4 22.9 Total Expenditure 20,843.00 24,920.00 26,020.20 38,296.60 39,045.70 44,445.10 As % of GDP 23.75 24.88 23.69 27.53 24.6 24.85 Functional allocation % Economic Affairs Period average: 28.9 22.20% 23.50% 22.50% Education Period average: 18.5 20.50% 21.80% 20.10% Health Period average: 10.5 10.20% 10.50% 10.80% ACTUAL GDP 93,354 105,983 120,780 166,480 183,790 213,139 Domestic Revenue 19,519 22,372.30 24,532.30 30,297.00 34,051.20 38,884.60 As % of GDP 20.9 21.1 20.3 18.2 18.5 18.2 Total Expenditure 22,385.40 26,152.20 33,790.10 38,541.60 51,684.80 51,827.40 As % of GDP 24 24.7 28 23.15 28.1 24.3 Functional allocation % Economic Affairs 26.2 15.4 20.84 23.68 13.5 19.31 Education 14.87 13.3 12.32 22.64 15.9 17.2 Health 8.16 4.8 4.14 6.37 5 4.16 Payments % Personnel Emoluments 31 34.7 33.8 40 31.7 36 Financial Charges 4.6 7.3 4.6 11.7 12.4 14.5 Sources: Green Paper 2011-2013 and Green Paper 2014-2016 (Ministry of Finance) Financial Reports (Ministry of Finance), Economic Reports (Ministry of Finance), Author’s calculations

In conclusion, the MTEF was not fully implemented as planned. Further, half of its expenditure was on payments of wages and interests and there was a drastic reduction towards subsidies (a high annual average of 2.9 percent of GDP over 2011-2016), social benefits (an annual average of 0.55 percent of GDP over the Plan period), operations and maintenance.

Zambia being classified as a lower middle-income country, entails less access to concessional external financing and the country has to turn to the international capital markets where financing is availed at non-concessional rates. Therefore, part of the country’s debt service was towards the Eurobonds acquired in 2012, 2014, and 2015 at initial yields of 5.625 percent, 8.625 percent and 8.97 percent, respectively. The bonds were alternative sources of financing for the MTEF and SNDP/R- SNDP.

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With regard to Government’s resource mobilisation; the Table 5 below illustrates a pattern on external borrowing in 2012, 2014 and 2015 and domestic borrowing between 2012 and 2016. Borrowing became a major source of financing in implementing the Plan.

Table 5 - Cash receipts of the Government 2010 2011 2012 Receipts 2013 2014 2015 2016 X1000 X1000 X1000 Tax revenue 12,743.00 18,414.00 20,772.50 22,431.70 26,835.40 28,898.10 30,427.70 Non-tax 1,049.80 1,526.10 1,138.90 2,163.70 2,814.20 5,252.30 8,790.40 revenue Grants and aid 771.6 680.1 602.1 347.2 291.3 - 303.5 Proceeds 979.5 1,150.10 7176 912 9,058.70 21,174.00 4,682.10 from external borrowing Proceeds 1,948.60 2,745.80 11,241.90 18,298.70 14,478.20 15,387.40 23,338.10 from domestic borrowing Total 17,492.60 24,516.10 40,931.30 44,153.30 53,477.70 70,711.80 67,541.70 Source: Ministry of Finance - Financial Reports (various editions) Note: currency re-denomination in 2013 (three zeros were removed from the ZMW)

Public Investment and Public expenditure on Health and Education during the Plan period

Public investment and public expenditure on health and education are two key policy variables that contribute to productive economic growth. Gross Capital Formation was boosted during the SNDP period, compared to the FNDP period. Public Investment, as a share of GDP increased by 1.2 percentage points, which reflects the Plan’s goal to boost infrastructure development. However, compared to the baseline year, private investment was more robust. Public Expenditure on Health and Education initially showed an increase over the baseline year before levelling off.

Poverty Profile and Regional Disparities

The SNDP had a target of; reducing headcount poverty to below 38 percent, extreme poverty to below 29 percent and rural poverty to below 50 percent. The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey, 2015 (CSO, 2015) reported status of headcount poverty at 54.5 percent, extreme poverty at 40.8 percent and rural poverty at 76.6 percent, respectively. The outturn was a slight improvement over the SNDP baseline figures but was still below targeted levels.

In the SNDP, the major challenge was to ensure that economic gains of the country impacted all regions proportionally. In order to bridge the inter-regional disparities, the SNDP focused on improving productivity in the regions based on comparative advantage and socio-economic needs. In line with the strategic focus of the Plan, regional development was premised on infrastructure development while education, health, water and sanitation were to be areas of human development. In the R-SNDP, rural development was meant to drive regional development with the aim of reducing poverty and disparities. However, the Plan did not include specific indicators of regional disparities in income or consumption to facilitate assessment of possible changes in consumption or income across regions.

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Out of the estimated 2,491 million households in 2010, 1,426 million households (57percent) were classified as small-scale farmer households. Their household income was equivalent to about half of average all-Zambia household income. In 2015, of the estimated 2.944 million households, 1.527 million households (51.9 percent) were small- scale farmer households with a household income equivalent to 38.5 percent of average all-Zambia household income. (CSO: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey 2006/2010/2015). Therefore, the relative position of rural poor has not improved. Income inequality remains high and many poor farmers did not have adequate means (financial, technical and technological) to move out of the poverty cycle. Suffice to note that, the proportion of small-scale farmer households reduced, whereas the proportion of urban poor households has increased from 26.5 percent to 32.5 percent over the last decade.

Considering that poverty was correlated with smallholder agriculture – and informality in general, – it is not surprising that the provinces with the highest rate of informality were also characterized by the highest poverty levels in terms of income and expenditure. The SNDP period did not change the picture. Lusaka and Copperbelt provinces have consistently ranked top in terms of household income distribution and consumption (See Table 6).

Table 6 - Regional dimension – mean Household Income as a proportion of mean Zambia Household Income Province 1996 1998 2002-2003 2004 2010 2015 Central 77.9 92.5 88.1 88.2 90.2 85 Copperbelt 144.1 134.6 150 132.5 171.1 179.2 Eastern 68.9 81.2 70.4 97.6 54.6 56.4 Luapula 75.1 56 62.3 63.2 58.9 46.4 Lusaka 180.3 203.9 205.7 146.2 160 160.6 Northern 60.5 53.7 58.4 75.3 63.1 49.7 North Western 55.2 57.6 65 85.1 82.6 78.4 Southern 78.5 91.9 95.9 94.6 100.7 76 Western 50.1 40.1 71.8 71 58.8 49 Muchinga 66.7 ZAMBIA 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: Data from CSO: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey, 1996, 1998, 2002-2003, 2004, 2010 and 2015. Calculations by the Evaluation Team

Employment

Considering that employment was an important goal, explicitly stated under the Plan, employment data from the Labour Force Survey Report (LFS), available for 2005, 2008, 2012 and 2014, but not for 2010 (base year), nor for 2016 (final year of the R-SNDP). The latest Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Report (LCMS) was for 2015. Since early 2017, a quarterly estimate of employment is produced by CSO. Unfortunately, these reports were not comparable and enormous swings (in Total Employment, in Agriculture and in other services) were observed in the available data. The inadequacies in employment data requires urgent attention including investment in sound methodology and quality control.

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Key Performance Indicators: targets and achievements

Although most sectors had identified the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to support tracking of progress, most of the KPIs did not have data for most of the SNDP implementation period.

Achievements against targets were measured for two years – 2013 and 2016 – whenever possible. The results were synthesized in the table below. In a substantial number of cases either no target was set for the KPI or no data of achievement were found in the APR or elsewhere. The count below reveals that targets were exceeded or nearly achieved in 48 instances, whereas targets were missed significantly (outturn less than 66 percent of the target) in 25 instances.

Table 7 - Synthesis of KPIs Within 10% Below 66% of No data or no KPI area of target or 66-90% of target target target set exceeding target Macro-output level 3 5 4 0 Macro management policies 6 4 3 1 Economic Transformation 6 8 10 3 Productivity factors and indicators 8 7 8 20 Total 23 24 25 24

Against this record of achievement of the Plan, it is relevant to estimate the costs of the planning process. An accurate and complete picture is difficult to draw. However, from the 2010 Annual Budget (MoF) it was possible to identify the costs of those departments and institutions that were involved in the Planning process. Analysis shows that expenditures on the planning function, at the central level, are equivalent to 4.86 percent of the total budget. With CSO excluded, expenditures amounted to 3.4 percent.

Micro level findings

During the SNDP, GDP growth averaged about 4.9%. Meanwhile, population growth was estimated to average 3%, leaving a per capita growth rate under 2% per annum. Meanwhile, poverty rates declined (marginally) and access to infrastructure services improved. However, the interpretation of this vary across audiences of analysts, policy-makers, stakeholders and citizens.

In order to qualify and supplement some of the findings – drawn from desk research interviews and Focus Group Discussions - a Mini-Survey was organized among stakeholders and citizens in two of the provinces visited. The findings from the Mini-Survey were, purely, the perceptions of the interviewees.

The Mini-Survey questionnaire touched on a wide range of issues covering their localised at district and community levels. The questionnaire included questions concerning the respondents’ activity, age and gender enabling testing of assumptions on various dimensions.

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The dimension studied is one which compares civil servants to citizens working outside the civil service (farming, business, NGO). Remarkably, no substantial differences in perceptions were found between civil servants and other citizens.

Positive perceptions observed:

• Citizens agree that improved seeds and fertiliser have become more available. • Respondents see more fruits/vegetables and meat/fish being traded in the market. • Citizens have seen health services improve and incidence of malaria and diarrhoea fall. • A strong majority of respondents have seen the choice in education and the quality of education improved. • A majority of respondents agree that access to electricity and reliability have improved. • Roughly half of respondents consider that access to safe water has improved. • A majority of respondents have seen cooperatives becoming more active. • A majority of respondents have seen more cultural activities organised.

Mixed perceptions observed:

• Respondents were almost equally split between those who had seen no change in incomes and those who had seen much or some increases in income. • Citizens outside the civil service saw less change in jobs at the mines, and in factories and industries operated by the private sector. • Four out of ten respondents did not see more wholesalers buying farm produce, agri-business and marketing services programmes promoted by the SNDP had not yet borne results. • Citizens outside the civil service were less convinced, than civil servants that the quality of public services had improved. The former were also less convinced that civil servants had become more responsive in providing public services. • Teacher motivation was cited as an issue in the opinion of citizens outside the civil service. • A majority of respondents were concerned about rural roads not being constructed and roads not being maintained. • An environmental concern exists in that respondents see more litter around. • Although access to banking has improved, access to a business credit has seen no change according to half of the citizens not employed in the civil service. • Respondents had not seen improvement in access to land for housing. • A majority of respondents strongly agreed that the cost of living had increased. • About half of the 153 respondents believed that crime had increased. • Almost two in three citizens outside the civil service strongly believed that corruption was on the rise. • Half of citizens outside the civil service strongly believed that violence against women had increased. • One quarter of respondents agreed that late payments of wages had occurred.

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3.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations – Zambia’s Macro Economic Performance Conclusions:

Relevance: • Macroeconomic policies and plans were by definition relevant because they constituted the framework within which sector plans and structural reforms operated. • Objectives of macroeconomic policies were mostly phrased in terms of price stability, exchange rate stability, interest rate targets, fiscal deficit/surplus targets, Balance of Current Account targets which inherently limited variability in real growth. • These objectives are normative in macroeconomics; variability in these parameters are associated with lower predictability of planning outcomes and with high risk to growth opportunities (due to stop-and-go policies).

Effectiveness: • Statistics indicate that Zambia’s inflation rate was consistently above the targeted 5 percent; inflation was even in double-digits in 2015 and 2016. Furthermore, the exchange rate saw significant swings. • Interest rates were persistently high (the nominal average lending rate was in excess of 20 percent in four out of six SNDP/R-SNDP years and hitting 29.5 percent in December 2016; source: Central Bank), the Balance of Current Account turned into a significant deficit (2015 and 2016) on account of increased external and domestic debt. • GDP growth ultimately fell to slightly over population growth indicating challenges in implementation of macroeconomic policies and monetary policy instruments, thereby impacting on anticipated development prospects.

Efficiency: • The effectiveness of the Macroeconomic policies and their efficiency could be considered as low.

Impact: • The macroeconomic challenges negatively impacted the implementation of the Plan, and so did the external factors such as the copper prices and rainfall variability.

Sustainability: • The macroeconomic instability undermined the sustainability of the SNDP especially that, significantly, wages and interest payments represented half of public expenditure. • In order to increase availability of resources to support priority sectors such as education and health, the ability of Government to fund public investment, operations, infrastructure maintenance, and transfers was severely reduced.

Recommendations: The following was recommended: a) The Bank of Zambia should implement a monetary policy compatible with an inflation target below 5 percent that would preclude the possibility of exchange rate devaluation to restore competitiveness in the event of persistent, significant Current Account deficits.

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b) The Government should introduce a mechanism of inflation adjustment of wages for civil servants, at least once every year. This mechanism protects the purchasing power of wages while introducing an element of predictability. The indicator to be monitored shall be a Consumer Price Index which includes essential food items and services (e.g. electricity).

c) The Government should consider a tax shift policy. This can include: a lower corporate income tax rate; elimination of the highest bracket of the personal income tax; increasing taxation of capital revenue and capital assets; and increasing domestic indirect taxes. In order to encourage investments in Provinces that are lagging in terms of development, direct taxation on corporate entities in those Provinces can be designed in a way to incentivise investments, in particular by SMEs.

d) The Government should continue with efforts to broaden the tax base (formalising the informal sector). The informal sector essentially functions on a cash basis and without use of standardized receipts; the Zambia Revenue Authority should, therefore, enforce the practice that transactions of an amount beyond a threshold are settled by means other than cash and shall be supported by a standardised receipt. Furthermore, various databases (TPIN, house ownership, car ownership, registry of commercial bank debts) can be cross-referenced in order to identify citizens with likely high income but who pay low – or no -- income taxes.

e) Zambia possesses considerable land resources under customary land status. Much of which is not put into productive use. In order to incentivise the allocation of land to productive use, a specific tax could be introduced on customary land. The tax can be settled by the authority responsible for customary land allocation.

f) The Government should not issue bonds which carry a fixed high interest rate, especially, if the proceeds will be used for general budgetary purposes. But should consider using innovative financing instruments such as growth-linked bonds. Furthermore, since the principal on the Eurobonds need to be repaid, the Government should consider setting aside sufficient savings annually, for this eventuality.

g) The MNDP should continue monitoring annual budget allocation, programme priorities and policies against assumptions behind the Plan. The impact of deviations from planned actions should be assessed in order to inform decision-makers about the impact of deviations. A macro- micro long-term and multi-sector growth model should be developed to enable this exercise. Alternatively, an existing model (ZAMMOD) currently in use, may be upgraded to carry out this exercise.

h) The Central Statistical Office should be enabled to carry out more regular surveys so that the data for monitoring progress on important variables such as employment are available, timely. Efforts should be undertaken to improve data on employment, public and private enterprises, and agriculture. To avoid carrying out costly, large-scale surveys too frequently, mini-surveys should be conducted instead.

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i) The identification of KPIs for the Plans should be supported by feasibility of data collection, analysis and reporting. j) In view of variability of copper prices and rainfall pattern, the Government should implement a windfall tax on gains and invest in financial assets or raise the capital of development banks (Development Bank of Zambia), in good times, when the copper prices peak. In periods of low copper prices – as a countercyclical policy measure - the reserves can be utilised to supplement funding of the regular Budget in order to smoothen investment expenditure for planned projects. Alternatively, DBZ should take equity participation in new investments projects during increased capital gains. k) Project appraisal should be strengthened. All large projects (threshold to be decided) should have a social rate of return computed. Small and medium scale projects should be appraised against a set of criteria. It is essential that projects be prioritised at district and provincial level, depending on the project cost involved. l) The practice of spreading resources thinly must be halted as it was responsible for delays in implementation, late project completion, low-quality service delivery. Similarly, logical balances should be struck between current expenditure and capital expenditure, as well as expenditure on wages and expenditure on operations and maintenance. m) Expenditure on maintenance requires higher priority (e.g. roads, railway, irrigation infrastructure, health and education facilities). All line ministries should develop adequate benchmarks and guidelines on resource allocation between capital and current expenditure. These benchmarks should also be used by the Office of the Auditor General, by the Anti-Corruption Commission and by Public Procurements units to evaluate Value-for-Money, within the respective mandate of these three institutions. n) Participatory budgeting should be introduced at district level. A certain percentage – to be determined - of district level revenue could be reserved for Participatory budgeting, according to the Porto Alegre model. This model allows citizens – through a Council constituted for that purpose - to formulate project proposals, to prioritise these projects and to fund the top-ranked projects up to the resources available. Citizens can contribute to the implementation of a project through provision of materials and/labour. The advantages of the model are multiple: citizens’ participation, transparency, additionality of investment efforts and better management of citizens’ expectations. o) As decentralization (towards districts) proceeds, the human capacity for oversight at provincial level should be strengthened to increase Value-for-Money and timely management of procurement and contract management processes. Human capacity in districts should also be strengthened in the area of financial management. Continuous training of civil servants should be adequately planned for and financed at all levels. p) The Zambia Public Procurement Authority should continue with rolling out e-procurement. The ZPPA should explore opportunities and develop innovative public procurement models which aim at guaranteeing Value-for-Money and shorter process cycles.

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4.0 Findings - Key Development Areas

4.1 Infrastructure

In the SDNP, infrastructure development was considered a central delivery mechanism for socio- economic development. In R-SNDP, emphasis of infrastructure development to enhance growth potential of the economy was further increased and was defined as one of four main objectives of the plan. The main sectors that were directly linked to this objective are Transport, Energy, Science, Technology and Innovation and Information and Communication Technology (ICT). The performance of these sectors is discussed below.

4.1.1 Transport sector

The objectives of the transport sector in SNDP were:-

1. To rehabilitate, maintain and construct road and bridge infrastructure 2. To construct and rehabilitate all weather roads in strategic tourist sites 3. To rehabilitate, and maintain existing, railway spurs and construct new rail lines in key trade corridors. 4. To improve air transport infrastructure, including International airports managed by the Zambia Airports Corporation Limited (ZACL). 5. To facilitate development of efficient and effective waterways.

The Plan singled out promotion of transport linkages through road infrastructure as the main focus area and is, therefore, also discussed in more detail in this report compared to the other transport means such as rail, air and water infrastructure and transport. The strategy for road infrastructure development was to employ labour intensive methods in order to significantly contribute to the Key Result Area of employment creation.

Progress against these objectives was measured through the following KPIs:

1. Percentage of cargo transported by rail and by road 2. Percentage of total core road network rehabilitated 3. Percentage of total core road network maintained 4. Percentage (km) of primary feeder roads in the Core Road Network which are routinely maintained and passable all year round 5. Percentage (km) of tourist roads constructed and rehabilitated 6. Kilometres of canals and inland waterways maintained and rehabilitated

Main roads infrastructure

The objective for main roads infrastructure development was to; rehabilitate, maintain and construct road and bridge infrastructure guided by a 10-year Roads Sector Investment Programme (R-SIP) in the period 2003-2013. A new Roads SIP was however not formulated for the period covered by the

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R-SNDP (2014-2016). Instead, guidance for road sector came from a number of national programmes such as:

• Link Zambia 8000 Programme – construction of 8,000 km of road in three phases • Pave Zambia 2000 Programme – construction of 2,000 km of main and urban roads, using labour- intensive construction methods such as use of concrete paving blocks or cobble stones. • Lusaka 400 Project – construction of 400 km of urban and ring roads in Lusaka.

Under the Link Zambia 8000 Programme, only a total of 756 km were constructed, representing a progress rate of 9.5 percent, with some work still under construction. Several causes for this poor performance had been identified:

• The overall the Link Zambia 8000 programme was very ambitious and did not sufficiently consider the limited resources (financial, human, systems) available. • Sifting priorities led to prioritisation and construction of roads that were not originally included in the Link Zambia 8000 Programme. • Delayed payments of certificates due to insufficient resources from the Roads Fund; • Over-procurement of infrastructure led to high resource requirements to finance the roads infrastructure programme. • Inadequate technical and financial capacity among some contractors, in particular local contractors led to project delays.

The overall objective of Link Zambia 8000 was basically to open up the whole country through a widespread roads network. Given that Zambia’s road density is low compared to neighbouring countries (road density of 5.4 km per 100 km2 of land, compared to 9.8 km in Tanzania, 14 km in Malawi, and 28.4 km in Kenya), this appears justifiable. However, overall population densities are also much lower in Zambia. It means that this approach would include roads that are not necessarily economically viable. For such roads it is difficult to obtain concessional loans to finance them. The implication being that they inevitably drew financing from government funds; which are limited; or government ends up contracting commercial loans with uncompetitive interest rates. This pushes up the cost per kilometre of road.

The Pave Zambia 2000 Project did not achieve its intended objective of providing employment and upgrading township roads in all the provinces in the country because of its slow pace of implementation. Only around 8 km of roads were constructed during the SNDP period.

Low funding being the main reason for this low output, exacerbated by the change in project approach, from using cobblestones to the use of concrete paving blocks. This escalated the cost per km considerably.

The L400 project had outstanding performance compared to all the others with a total of 363 km constructed, representing a progress rate of around 90 percent. This was mostly as a result of the project having assured financing through a loan facility.

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An audit by Auditor-General’s office on road construction for the period 2012-2015 revealed a number of important challenges, such as poor quality both in road design, works, and signage in addition to lack of feasibility studies, uncontrolled variations due to lack of engineering designs and poor contract management and over procurement.

These shortcomings can potentially affect financial and technical sustainability of the infrastructure. Furthermore, delays due to over procurement (leading to delayed payments) and unmanaged time extensions can potentially lead to increased construction costs i.e. a higher cost per km.

The objective of “Construction of roads to strategic tourist sites” was difficult to assess considering that data was not available with regard to the Key Performance Indicator for this programme. Reports from the roads sector did not have any information related to construction of tourist roads. It is, however, clear that some main roads that had been upgraded or completed during SNDP/R-SNDP were also important for tourism such as the Mongu- Kalabo road which opened up access to Liuwa National Park.

Rural feeder roads

The rural feeder roads fell under the responsibility of provinces and districts. These were previously constructed through provincial Rural Roads Units (RRUs). There was policy change in 2015 when the RRUs were abolished and their role taken over by the Zambia National Service (ZNS).

A total of around 5,700 km of feeder roads were constructed, maintained and/or upgraded during the period 2012 to 2016. Focus was on opening up roads in new districts that had been created during course of the R-SNDP, funded through Land Development Fund. This entailed that much of the existing feeder roads network of around 29,000 km (Auditor General’s Report, 2016) was not maintained during the R-SNDP.

Feedback from beneficiaries on quality of rural feeder roads construction and maintenance was mixed. The evaluation encountered mixed perceptions based on the fact that historically, road maintenance has not been frequently done in many rural areas and, therefore, a big portion of the rural roads network had been generally in poor condition.

Road Tolling

The implementation of road tolling on roads with high traffic volumes was one of the key projects in the R-SNDP. This was introduced as a measure to increase non-tax revenue to support road maintenance and rehabilitation. By 2016, toll stations had been constructed at Manyumbi and Kafulafuta (both on Great North Road) and along the Lusaka-Kafue road. Overall, toll collections in the period 2013 to 2016 amounted to ZMW 1,234,210,099. In 2016, when the first toll plazas became operational, a total of ZMW 464,780,201 was collected, of which 5 percent at weight bridges, 85 percent at ports of entry and 10 percent at new toll plazas. Revenue contribution of toll plazas is likely to increase in future with the planned construction of more planned toll plazas (e.g., on the Great East Road, in Chongwe and on the Mongu – Kalabo road).

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Air transport and infrastructure

In the aviation sector, infrastructure development focused on upgrading the 4 international airports in Zambia namely:

• Kenneth Kaunda International Airport (formerly Lusaka International Airport) - renamed during SNDP; • Harry Mwaanga Nkumbula International Airport (formerly Livingstone International Airport) – renamed during SNDP; • Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe International Airport (formerly Ndola International Airport) – renamed during SNDP; and • • Mfuwe Airport.

The SNDP’s focus on international airports was based on the outcome of a study undertaken in 2010 that identified the potential for Zambia to become a regional aviation hub given its central location. The situation at the end of 2016 for each of these airports was as follows:

• Construction of a completely new airport terminal at Kenneth Kaunda International Airport was ongoing. • Upgrading of the Harry Mwaanga Nkumbula International Airport had been completed. • Construction of a proposed new Simon Mwansa Kapwepwe International Airport in Ndola had not yet started. • Upgrading of the Mfuwe Airport had not yet started.

Although Zambia has no direct flights anymore to destinations outside Africa, except to Dubai, since KLM discontinued its flights to Amsterdam in 2014, international passenger numbers increased steadily during the SNDP/R-SNDP period, from around 1,000,000 in 2011 to around 1,350,000 in 2016. Furthermore, domestic passenger numbers increased from around 225,000 in 2011 to around 315,000 in 2014, but then a declined to around 274,000 passengers in 2016. Given that much of domestic air travel relates to the mining industry, a decrease may be possibly linked to the fact that some mines went into care and maintenance mode during that period.

For both international and domestic flights, competition between airlines was very limited during the SNDP/R-SNDP period. The implication being that prices for air travel were (and continue to be) relatively high when compared to other countries. This applies especially for domestic flights, where only one main company operated flights during the Plan period. This compares very unfavourably with a country like Tanzania where a large number of small private companies operate domestic flights, leading to very competitive prices that make air transport often more economical than road transport.

Focus on infrastructure development of international airports meant that very few resources were allocated for maintenance of airstrips and aerodromes in the provinces and districts. The state of many of these had deteriorated over the years. Railway infrastructure and transport

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The railway subsector consists of two operators namely; Tanzania – Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), a Joint Railway Company between the United Republic of Tanzania and Government of the Republic of Zambia that manages the Railway from Kapiri Mposhi to Dar-es-Salaam, and Zambia Railways Limited (ZRL), which manages all other railway lines.

During the SNDP the railway sector continued to face challenges. Apart from 2013, when an injection of capital (USD 120 million, from the first Eurobond, against a capital requirement of approximately USD500 million) in ZRL led to minor improvements in the infrastructure and subsequently to a significant increase in cargo transport in that year. The railway sector’s performance mostly remained stagnant, and in some instances showed a negative trend. Poor state of equipment and railway infrastructure and lack of capital investments were the main reasons for continued under performance of railway sector.

Whereas the objective during SNDP period was to shift more cargo from road to rail, the opposite happened. The SNDP targets were to reduce the percentage of cargo transported by road from 66 percent in 2012 to 25 percent in 2016 and increase railway cargo from 34 percent to 75 percent. The outturn was that the roads share of cargo increased further to 71 percent, with railway dropping to 29 percent. The mining industry is one of the main sectors that contributes to overall cargo volumes. During the Plan period, they continued to overwhelmingly use trucks to transport their main copper products. It is clear that the railway sector did not significantly grow to improve reliability, efficiency and cost-effectiveness of their sector convince mining companies to have confidence in rail transport and to start using it instead of roads.

The number of passengers transported by rail steadily declined during SNDP/R-SNDP, from around 910,000 in 2012 to around 679,000 in 2016. Inter-regional buses, although more expensive, provide a more reliable and much faster transport option.

For the kind of transformation envisaged in the SNDP to occur, there was need for a huge injection of capital in the rail sub-sector coupled with an aggressive FDI mobilisation strategy for investment into strategic railway lines especially for mining cargo transportation. Passenger transportation by rail requires high population numbers if the business has to be profitable, therefore, the SNDP strategy of targeting investments in the rail sub-sector to increase cargo haulage by rail was actually sound. The strategy needed sufficient resources to be actualised.

Impact and Sustainability

Transport infrastructure development, roads programmes in particular, was expected to have impact on socio-economic variables and especially rural development, which was one of the main objectives in the R-SNDP.

There were no indicators in the R-SNDP that related to expected impact of the transport infrastructure on socio-economic development. Field visits to Northern and Western provinces, however, allowed collection of anecdotal evidence on local impact of new roads. Feedback from both government staff and beneficiary focus groups showed that new roads could have major poverty reduction and economic growth impacts at local level. It would lead to increased trade between major towns and

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rural areas connected to these towns. It would also add to growth of small town centres, such as Mungwi in Northern Province and Kalabo in Western Province. Such growth in turn could increase opportunities for Small and Medium Enterprises to service growing populations in these areas.

For local farmers, the upgrade of an old gravel road to a new tarred road helped in reducing prices for agricultural inputs and increased prices for agriculture produce, because agro-dealers and buyers are now willing to come to farming areas. Farmers can also more easily move produce to nearby towns to obtain better prices, because both transport time and transport costs have significantly reduced.

Local impact of the new road from Kasama to Mbesuma in Mungwi district, as cited by stakeholders and beneficiaries: • Transport cost from Mungwi town to Kasama reduced to ZMW 15 from ZMW 25, previously. • Travel time from Mungwi to Kasama reduced to 2 hours from 7 hours. • Reduced road user costs (costs of vehicle maintenance). • Increased interest of people from Kasama to settle in Mungwi. • Increased level of services in Mungwi, such as more agro-dealers and establishment of a commercial bank. • Increased market for SMEs like welding workshops, ICT shops, smartphone shops etc.

Local impact of the new road from Mongu to Kalabo, over the Zambezi floodplain: • Transport cost from Mongu to Kalabo reduced to ZMW 35 from ZMW 150 • Transport time reduced to 40 minutes from 1 to 2 days (by boat), previously. • Safer travel • Increased prices for fish, with traders coming all the way from Lusaka now capable of buying directly from fisher folk. o While positive for the fisher folk, it means the population in Mongu is paying higher prices for fish than before • Increased market and prices for rice grown near the Angolan border. • Rapid growth of Kalabo, with increase in level of services, such as banks and second-hand clothes outlets. • Increase in tourists for Liuwa Plains National Park

While these are positive impacts, they are localised impacts. A main limiting factor for broader impact is the low focus on feeder roads that branch off the main roads, which were largely in bad state. This meant that the impact of better transport options was only really felt by those living near the newly tarred main roads.

The importance of good feeder roads for agricultural development was also confirmed in a detailed research paper commissioned by the World Bank (2017), which looked at the effect of feeder roads upgrade and maintenance in Chipata and Katete districts. The study concluded that agricultural production was significantly higher in areas, where feeder roads were upgraded and maintained

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compared to a control area where this upgrading was not undertaken. The research further concluded that Output and Performance Based Contracts deliver the best value for money for feeder roads and increase probability of roads receiving necessary maintenance works whenever needed.

Sustainability of completed road works during SNDP was not very well assured in the absence of a sufficient road maintenance budget. Ideally construction of new roads is directly related to available capacity (financial and physical) for maintenance. During the R-SNDP the overemphasis on new constructions relegated road maintenance, which equally requires substantial increases in funds as new infrastructure comes on board. Limited use of Output-and Performance Based Contracts also contributed to the challenges faced with regard to quality of works.

4.1.2 ICT sector

Objectives of ICT sector in SNDP/R-SNDP were:

1. To develop and maintain ICT and Meteorological infrastructure 2. To deliver integrated, accessible and convenient e-services 3. To enhance access to electronic and print media in rural areas 4. To enhance market access for ICTs in both the regional and international markets 5. To promote FDI in the ICT Sector

Progress in the sector was to be measured through the following KPIs:

1. Numbers of mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants 2. Digital television subscribers per 100 habitants 3. Internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants 4. Online Government electronic services

Compared to the original SNDP targets, the targets for indicators such as mobile phone subscribers increased substantially in R-SNDP. This shows in SNDP 2016 target of 2.5 internet subscribers per 1,000 inhabitants, while the R-SNDP target changed to a far more ambitious 36 internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants. It is an indication of fast pace of change in ICT sector from 2010 onwards.

As is clear from the indicator list, focus for ICT sector was on increasing mobile phone and internet coverage, digital migration (from analogue TV to digital) and e-government. These are therefore the main elements discussed in this chapter.

Mobile phone and internet

During the implementation of SNDP/R-SNDP, mobile phone and internet coverage was extended across the country through construction of new mobile phone towers. This was largely an ongoing private sector driven expansion, but government played an active role by funding the construction of a total of 204 towers in rural hinterland areas that are of less commercial interest. These towers are now operated by at least one mobile network provider. The aerial coverage increased over the SNDP period from around 79.4 percent to 85 percent by end of 2015.

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Efficiency increased by separating ownership of towers from that of mobile phone networks. Where each mobile network provider initially built their own tower (often leading to several towers built right next to one another), the separation now means that towers are used by several mobile providers through lease agreements with company owning towers. It also allows mobile network operators to focus on their core business and customers, and significantly reduce the need for ongoing capital expenditure on passive infrastructure.

Prioritisation process regarding where to construct towers did not consider the possibility of synergies with other infrastructure such as energy. Since access to electricity was not considered, many towers ended up being powered by expensive power supply systems, mostly diesel generators or solar power. Of the 1,735 towers that are managed by a private sector company that leases them out to mobile network providers, only 372 were connected to the grid by end of 2016.

Mobile network infrastructure increasingly served as internet infrastructure, with internet access shifting from fixed lines to mobile coverage. This coverage is increasingly 3G/4G, although many areas, mostly in rural locations, still operated on 2G (51 percent of access points was still 2G by the end of 2016).

The second half of the SNDP implementation period further saw a rapid expansion of optic fibre network, with all provincial headquarters and an increasing number of districts connected through activities of the three mobile network companies (Zamtel; MTN and Airtel). The Optic fibre rings were also established in various districts.

The Map below shows the extent of fibre network and of 3G network spread for the country in 2016. Noticeably, there is a strong correlation between population density and coverage of the ICT communication networks, as the map in Figure 1 below shows.

Figure 1: 3G coverage and extent of fibre infrastructure in Zambia in 2016

Source: Zambia ICT gap analysis, Draft Recommendations Report, paper for WB, October 2016

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While mobile phone coverage on average increased during the SNDP period, further increase was hampered by introduction of mandatory registration of SIM cards, which started in 2013. This explains why coverage actually reduced from 78 percent in 2012 to 65 percent in 2014, but then went up again to 79.4 percent in 2016 representing approximately 12 million subscriptions.

A 2015 ICT survey undertaken by Zambia Information & Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) showed that in spite of the efforts to increase mobile phone coverage in rural areas through construction of towers, mobile phone use is still considerably higher in urban areas, with 84.8 percent of urban households and 50.4 percent of rural households owning at least one mobile phone. The digital divide also prevailed across gender with 55 percent of all males above the age of 10 years being active mobile phone users while only 47.9 percent of females are active mobile phone users

The survey further revealed that only 13.5 percent of mobile phone owners have a smart phone. It means internet access is considerably lower than mobile phone access, since around 98 percent of internet access is in fact through mobile phone networks. According to the survey, 12.7 percent of HHs have access to the internet. This does not seem to tally with reported number of internet subscribers per 100 inhabitants in SNDP progress reports, which stood at 39.3 in 2015. This is because the reported number in the SNDP reports is in fact not subscribers per 100 inhabitants, but subscriptions per 100 inhabitants. Since people can have more than one subscription, and since subscriptions can also be for e.g. ATM machines, the number of actual subscribers per 100 inhabitants will be considerably lower than so far reported. The reported figure in 2016 was 32.2 subscriptions per 100 inhabitants against a target of 36 subscribers per 100 inhabitants. The fact that the number went down compared to 2015 is most likely caused by customers making increasing use of mobile internet connections through tethering, hotspots, routers etc.

According to the same survey, 71 percent of smartphone owners use them for Over the Top applications like WhatsApp, Facebook, YouTube, Skype and Twitter. Use of internet for online banking and shopping is still relatively low, utilised by only 4 percent and 6 percent of all internet users respectively.

Both mobile phone and internet use were very expensive in Zambia when compared to most other countries in the region. Although prices have gone down considerably during the 2011-2016 period, a bundle of voice and SMS calls was still more than double the average price in countries in the region. Similarly, although retail price of 1GB of data reduced from around USD 25.00 in 2012 to around USD 2.5 in 2016, this is still more than 2 times higher than the average in neighbouring countries .

Digital migration

Migration from analogue television to digital television during SNDP was expected to lead to 86 digital TV subscribers per 100 inhabitants in 2016. However, data on the actual numbers could not be obtained. This is largely due to the deployment model that was used during SNDP : Only one distributor was authorised (a partnership between the national broadcaster ZNBC and a private company) to implement the digital migration, and the contract was only signed in 2014. This may have led to slow implementation progress and to relatively high implementation cost given lack of competition. It also led to relatively high broadcasting fees for other local (private TV) channels,

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which made them reluctant to have their channels broadcast through digital system. While progress was made with migration along line of rail, lack of monitoring makes it difficult to assess exact performance. By end of 2015, a total of 11 digital transmitters were installed, but it is unknown how many customers they service. Households need to buy a digital box at a (subsidised) price of ZMW 100 to be able to access digital signal, which is likely a barrier for rapid coverage expansion.

E-government

E-government covers Government-to-Government (G2G), Government-to-Customers (G2C) and Government-to-Businesses (G2B) e-services.

As part of G2G development, government-wide area network was further rolled out during SNDP, connecting all ministries and extending to all provinces and an increasing number of districts using primarily ZESCO lines to carry internet signal. Examples of implemented G2G e-services include an electronic government procurement system operated by Zambia Public Procurement Authority (ZPPA) and installation of teleconferencing equipment in government institutions to reduce the need for time-consuming and costly travel for face-to-face meetings although stakeholder feedback indicate equipment is not used as much as anticipated due to incentives like per diems that are linked to travel for meetings and workshops.

With regard to G2C and G2B services, R-SNDP had a target of 20 online services for customers by 2016. This target was achieved. Some of the main G2C e-services developed during R-SNDP include, inter alia:

• RTSA – road tax etc. • Integrated Lands Management Information System (for registration of title deeds and payment of ground rent) • ZRA online tax filing system • PACRA online system for company registration • E-visa for visitors requiring a visa • SMS based mobile health system for prevention of cancer in women as well as infant HIV laboratory results transmission.

Progress made in e-government services during SNDP is confirmed by the increase in ranking and scoring of Zambia in the UN E-Government Development Index from a ranking of 154 (score 0.29) in 2012 to a ranking of 132 (score 0.35) in 2016. Zambia’s score is at par with neighbouring countries like Zimbabwe, Namibia and Tanzania, while ahead of Malawi and Mozambique, although still behind Botswana and South Africa.

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ICT enabling and operational environment challenges

Zambia increased its scoring on the ICT Development Index from 1.65 in 2011 to 2.22 in 2016, but its global ranking fell from 135 to 147. Score of 2.22 was also below regional average for Africa of 2.48. This indicates that Zambia is still facing considerable challenges in enabling and operating environment, such as:

• Outdated ICT policy of 2006 –and no operationalisation of the policy. • High costs in ICT sector, e.g. through excise duty (which went up from 10 percent to 15 percent and then to 17.5 percent during SNDP) and high corporate tax burdens; this also leads to high consumer tariffs for mobile phone and internet alluded to earlier. • Reduced economic growth – only 3 percent in 2016 – leading to less buying power from customers. • Severe load shedding in 2015 and 2016, leading to high cost for power backup systems, including for all towers • Theft, including theft of solar panels at towers. • Complicated and non “technology neutral” licensing system

Some of these challenges were mitigated during SNDP, e.g. through a series of Statutory Instruments and will be further addressed through the Smart Zambia project.

Impact

The increase in coverage of mobile telephone/Internet network and reduction in prices contributes to R-SNDP objectives of rural and human development. It allows farmers and SMEs in rural areas to get better access to market information and communicate more easily with suppliers and customers. It saves both time and considerable cost for travel. The importance of mobile phone access for rural areas was confirmed in the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey. When rural households were asked which development in their area was most important, mobile phone access was mentioned as most important, ahead of improved roads and improved health facilities.

Examples of impact, obtained during meeting with beneficiaries in Mungwi district:

• Farmers in Mungwi district can now contact agro-dealers in Kasama to know prices for inputs. They can then decide whether it is worth going to Kasama, or buy at a slightly higher price from agro-dealers in Mungwi town. • A small ICT shop in Mungwi has seen business increase considerably, both for ICT products (selling and servicing) and for providing training on internet use.

The ICT sector also contributes to employment. In 2016, the private mobile phone and internet providers and infrastructure companies reported a total of 2,264 employees, up from 2,007 in 2013.

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4.1.3 Energy sector

In the Sixth National Development Plan, 2011-2015, the Sector goal was to ensure adequate and reliable supply of energy at the lowest economic, social and environmental cost. This goal was retained for the R-SNDP period with plans to expand the nation’s capacity for electricity generation and increase rural and national access to electricity supply. It is also intended to expand petroleum bulk storage facilities to raise the number of days for petroleum strategic stock.

The objectives for the energy sector in R-SNDP were to:

1. Increase electricity generation capacity by at least 1,132MW and build appropriate transmission and distribution lines. 2. Increase electrification levels in the Rural Areas from 3.0 to 8.0 percent 3. Ensure security of supply of petroleum products to attain a 30 days strategic reserve 4. Expand use of renewable and alternative energy in the country’s energy mix.

The related KPIs for the sector were:

1. Percentage of households with access to electricity, disaggregated by rural / urban 2. Number of days of strategic petroleum reserves 3. Mega Watts (MW) of power generated from renewable energy sources 4. Mega Watts (MW) of additional electricity generation capacity 5. Energy trading – total export and total import as percentage of total electricity consumption.

During implementation of R-SNDP, the main thrust of the Energy Sector was to expand electricity generation and transmission capacities and enhance cost-effectiveness in fuel supply.

Electricity infrastructure and generation

During SNDP, the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) further expanded its electricity grid, with main expansion occurring in North Western Province, where districts of Mwinilunga, Kabompo, Zambezi and Kalumbila (new district) have been connected to the grid. Grid expansion also prioritised other new districts (in collaboration with Rural Electrification Authority) and farm blocks (see under Agriculture).

Total installed capacity for ZESCO went up from 1,989 MW in 2012 to 2,259 MW in 2016, against a target of 3,121 MW, so this target was not achieved. The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) reports indicate Independent Power Producers (IPPs) increased their installed capacity from 185 MW in 2012 to around 605 MW in 2016, bringing the total installed capacity to over 2,820 MW in 2016, against an estimated peak demand of around 2,300 MW.

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Figure 2: Electricity generation 2013 to 2016

While overall installed capacity was higher than demand during SNDP, actual electricity generation decreased in 2015 and even more in 2016, to levels below demand. This led to substantial load shedding in these years. The low output of hydropower plants was attributed to low rainfall in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 seasons, but high exports in 2014 (see under the section on energy trading) appear to have exacerbated the problem.

Provision of electricity into rural areas is the responsibility of Rural Electrification Authority (REA). Its work is guided by a Rural Electrification Master Plan adopted in 2009, which in turn was guided by Vision 2030. REA focuses on developing small-scale electricity generation capacity (up to 20MW) and providing electricity access to Rural Growth Centres (RGC), which are rural centres where there is a school and/or health post.

In the SNDP, a target was set to complete 62 RGC “packages” (a number of RGCs combined), which was changed to a target of 40 in the R-SNDP. Due to low funding amounts, REA decided to unbundle these packages and work on connecting individual RGCs. Exact number of RGCs connected to grid or provided with off-grid electricity during whole SNDP/R-SNDP period could not be established by the evaluation team due to data management limitations by the Source.

Prioritisation process to decide at which RGCs to provide electricity access was primarily based on financial/economic criteria, but also geographical spread, at least one RGC per province per year. During R-SNDP these criteria were partly overtaken by need for electrification of new districts that were formed by the new government after the elections of 2011.

Providing electricity access to RGCs is usually done through extension of existing ZESCO grid to such a RGC, but in line with R-SNDP’s objective of expanding use of renewable and alternative energy in the country’s energy mix. REA started increasing efforts to develop solar and hydropower

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mini-grids, several of which were under development by the end of 2016. Moreover, REA supports development of Solar Home Systems for public institutions through private contractors, with at least several hundreds implemented by 2016.

One objective of R-SNDP was to expand the use of renewable energy , with a target of 31.75 MW for 2016. According to Energy Regulation Board (ERB) 2016 annual report, renewable energy sources (solar) contributed less than 0.1 percent or 0.06MW in 2016, which is very far removed from the target. This number is much lower than reported in 2016 SNDP progress report, which stated an achievement of 14.06 MW. That included 14MW upgrade of a hydropower plant. It is not clear why this was singled out as counting towards renewable energy target. Overall dependency on hydropower continued to remain very high and accounted for 84.5 percent of electricity generation in 2016. Substantial new energy source during SNDP was coal (300 MW), which is not a renewable source of energy.

Electricity access and use

Overall characteristics of use of electricity during SNDP did not significantly change. Mining continued to be the major user with around 54 percent of all electricity generated. Domestic use accounted for about 30 percent, all other categories used less than 5 percent, including manufacturing sector. In fact, the share of electricity for manufacturing went down slightly during SNDP, from 4.9 percent in 2012 to 4.3 percent in 2016, which could be an indication of limited growth in this sector. Urban household access to electricity increased from 25 percent in 2012 to 67 percent in 2016, well beyond target of 30 percent. Rural household level access to electricity however is still very low, with around 4.4 percent connected. This is up from 3 percent at start of SNDP but well below the target of 8 percent in SNDP. It should be noted however that this only represents connections to main grid or mini-grids installed by REA. About 7.4 percent of rural households have access to electricity through solar systems.

One main reason for lack of progress for rural access is connection fee, which is considered a financial barrier for poor households. Installed capacity at RGCs through work of REA would allow for a large number of individual households to be connected, but very few have done so. REA has recently started to address this issue by installing connections for free through an intensification programme.

Energy trading

Regional cooperation is important in the energy sector with Mozambique (and Zambia in some years) having over capacity and most others having under capacity. Energy trading is regulated through Southern Africa Power Pool. Figure 3 below shows trends on exports and imports during SNDP. Export targets were well exceeded, especially in 2014, and with the low rainfall in the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 seasons this has led to very high imports, especially in 2016, at very high costs.

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Figure 3: Trends in Electricity Exports and Imports during SNDP

Source: ERB, 2016

Strategic petroleum reserves

A total of four 4 strategic reserve depots were foreseen during SNDP and all 4 were completed and are operational. They are located in Lusaka, Mpika, Mongu and Solwezi, and stock finished products such as petrol, gasoil, kerosene and jet fuel. Due to the completion of these depots, the 2016 target of 20 days of reserves maintained for these products was well exceeded.

Feedback from stakeholders indicates that reserves are not used purely as static stocks. Available fuel is used on a regular basis and restocked again. Availability of such reserves is seen as a positive development by interviewed stakeholders.

Enabling and operating environment

One of the main challenges in the energy sector was that tariffs for electricity and fuels were not cost-reflective but was set by government. During 2015 and 2016, progress was made towards more cost-reflective tariffs, with fuel subsidies fully abolished in 2016. Electricity tariffs were still not cost- reflective, which means power generation through Public-Private Partnerships requires government to agree on a cost-reflective buying price. Lack of clear benchmarks made this a complicated process. A Cost Services Study is now underway to address this.

Another challenge was the high number of licenses that were required for new projects such as a hydro power plant. It requires permissions from ERB, Water Resources Management Authority, Lands Department, Zambia Environmental Management Authority, etc. This led to delays in implementation of new energy generation projects.

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To promote a more substantial increase in renewable energy generation, a new regulatory framework and licensing system was developed in 2015/2016 that aims to promote electricity generation through solar, wind, geothermal and biomass, and allows for (and regulates) feed-in mechanisms. Solar energy equipment that complies with ERB standards was imported. Supply, installation and maintenance of solar systems is tax exempted by Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA).

Impact

Expansion of electricity network to RGCs has a direct positive impact on health services, since e.g. health posts will be able to store medicines in the correct (cool) conditions. Schools that were newly connected RGCs will be able to provide ICT education. Stakeholder feedback indicates that schools were at times supplied with ICT equipment before they had electricity access. Lack of coordination between sectors, in this case REA and Education, means that synergies have not been optimised.

Due to high connection fees, impact on rural households was limited. Environmental impacts in terms of reduced use of firewood and charcoal was also limited. Even in urban areas, around 65 percent of households are still using firewood or charcoal for cooking, which appears to be at least partly related to cultural aspects (the belief that nshima tastes better when cooked on a charcoal stove than on an electric stove). With charcoal market being largely unregulated, charcoal prices were competitive compared to electricity costs and charcoal stoves are much cheaper than electric stoves.

Load shedding in 2015 and 2016 has had a negative impact on businesses. A study by ERB on impact of load shedding in 2015 on SMEs concluded that overall direct cost was over ZMW 600,000,000. These costs include issues such as reduced turn-over, labour costs (idle and overtime costs), equipment damage, back-up systems and restarting costs.

4.1.4 General infrastructure findings

Apart from the transport, energy and ICT sectors, there were other infrastructure developments during SNDP/R--SNDP. Some general findings with regard to overall infrastructure development are presented in this chapter.

1. Creation of a large number of new districts at the beginning of SNDP period meant that much of infrastructure plans in each sector had to be adjusted to cater for development of new districts. While this affected all infrastructure sectors, it was most evident in building infrastructure sub- sector, with almost all construction efforts during SNDP/R-SNDP focused on district offices and staff housing in new districts. 2. A considerable number of stakeholders indicated that there was an increase in political interventions that saw funds for planned projects being diverted for construction of other projects that were not planned. An example is construction of roads that were not originally prioritised in main programmes like the Link Zambia 8000.

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3. During the SNDP/R-SNDP, a high number of infrastructure projects were started, but many of these stalled or delayed during construction, for a variety of reasons:

a) Projects were started without funds secured, leading to erratic and delayed funding. b) Inefficient procurement processes, further complicated by requirement introduced during SNDP/R-SNDP that attorney general’s office needs to sign off on all contracts c) Over-sophistication in design – such as decision to construct same large veterinary laboratories in all provinces, even though livestock numbers are much higher in some provinces than in others. One stakeholder wondered whether all trunk roads need to have the same dimensions, given that traffic density on some trunk roads was very low compared to others. Some that single lane tar roads could be an option for some of the roads, thereby hugely reducing the construction cost per kilometre.

d) Limited capacity for monitoring/supervision at the implementing government agencies. e) Project management challenges by contractors, in particular; the local contractors, both in terms of cash flow and quality assurance.

As a result, it is estimated that around 80 percent of infrastructure projects started during SNDP/R- SNDP have not yet been completed. Field visits confirmed that most infrastructure projects were still ongoing.

4) Focus on construction of new infrastructure has led to reduced funding for maintenance of existing infrastructure. While this appears to be most pronounced in roads sector, it was also mentioned by stakeholders in other sectors.

4.1.5 Conclusions and recommendation - Infrastructure

Conclusions:

Relevance: • The SNDP objectives and strategies for infrastructure were generally relevant, in practice somewhat re-oriented to new priorities. • Relevance of improved infrastructure for economic development was obvious. However, in R-SNDP infrastructure development was largely equated with construction of new roads, whereas in a country like Zambia with a large mining sector it could well be argued that railway infrastructure should be a main priority. • ICT and energy infrastructure development were rightly prioritised as a key infrastructure sector, in particular extending mobile phone network and electricity grid to rural areas in support of the rural development objective. • The objective of increasing the energy mix was important given the current over-dependence on hydropower, which is vulnerable to climate change impacts.

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Effectiveness: • Effectiveness of all infrastructure projects was compromised because too many projects started and many not completed. • Objective of moving more cargo from road to rail was not achieved, with road cargo transport increasing and railway cargo transport decreasing during SNDP/R-SNDP. • Effectiveness of the roads may be affected by the consideration that not all constructed roads were identified on the basis of socio-economic impact criteria. • The ICT sector was generally very effective in increasing access to and quality of ICT services such as mobile phone networks / internet, as well as E-government. A very effective PPP was applied in the ICT sector, with government providing basic infrastructure (towers) in rural areas to promote the expansion of mobile phone network to areas that would otherwise not be commercially interesting for the private sector. • Expansion of rural electricity grid was less effective than anticipated, due to high connection fees that many rural households could not afford. • The dependency on hydropower for main grid remained high, and with it vulnerability for climate change.

Efficiency: • Too many road construction projects were started, leading to challenges in procurement and funds disbursement, which increased construction cost. Efficiency was further compromised by quality issues on some of the infrastructure constructed. • ICT sector increased infrastructure efficiency by making provision for utilisation of a single tower by multiple mobile phone service providers. Functional efficiency was, however, reduced by inadequate coordination with other sectors like energy providers, resulting in many towers requiring expensive power supply units like diesel generators. • E-government services (G2G, G2C and G2B) saved time and money due to more efficient handling and exchange of information, and reduced need for travel. • Too low hydropower capacity in 2015/2016 led to high costs in electricity imports.

Impact: • Improved roads, ICT and electricity access helped in economic development through improved access to markets and market information for farmers, reduced travel time and costs for everyone, improved contact with suppliers and consumers for businesses. • Impact of main roads constructed for rural population was limited as long as feeder roads were not also upgraded. • Connecting Rural Growth Centres (RGCs) to the grid improved health and education services, contributing to human development. • Load shedding in 2015-2016 negatively impacted on businesses through higher energy costs and reduced turn over.

Sustainability: • The focus on construction of new infrastructure (to the detriment of maintenance of existing infrastructure), in particular in the roads sector, is undermining long term sustainability prospects.

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Recommendations:

a) NDPs should be guiding annual planning of infrastructure, if not legally binding. It does not mean they should be considered as static documents; they can be reviewed during the implementation period through a consultative process to adjust to new realities. b) More realistic planning of infrastructure projects is needed, based on available financial resources and institutional capacity for effective design, procurement, implementation, supervision. c) Focus in coming years should be on completing ongoing projects. New projects should be limited, and instead funds should be increased for maintenance of infrastructure. d) In areas, where trunk roads are constructed or upgraded, feeder roads should also be upgraded. This should be seen as “one package” to optimise impact. e) Longer term planning of electricity generation and of energy mix needs to incorporate increased risk of erratic rainfall due to climate change.

4.2 Manufacturing, Commerce and Trade

4.2.1 Manufacturing

Profile of the Manufacturing sector in Zambia

The manufacturing sector in Zambia is predominantly food, beverage and tobacco accounting for an average share of about 35 percent of the total manufacturing GDP (measured at the current prices) between 2010 and 2015. Other manufacturing subsectors include basic metal, engineering, non- metallic and chemical, rubber and plastic collectively accounting for an average of 59 percent of the total manufacturing GDP during the same period. The smallest contributors to manufacturing GDP had been the paper, wood, textile and leather sub sectors with an average contribution of a paltry 2.4, 2.2 and 1.9 percent, respectively (CSO, National Account).

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Box: features of the Zambian manufacturing sector

• The business sector is highly dualistic: a few hundred large companies and numerous micro businesses employing just the owner-manager. • Some of the large manufacturing enterprises found their origin in trading business venturing into production. • Low degree of competition. • Regional concentration of manufacturing in Lusaka and Copperbelt: • Fairly good product diversification in food industry, chemical sector and building materials. • Concentration of resource-based industries with backward linkages to agriculture/livestock/ forestry, mining and quarrying and some forward linkage to agriculture (e.g. fertilizer) and construction (building materials). • Some large firms have highly diversified product portfolio. • Low productivity overall of manufacturing firms; large enterprises less productive than competitors in emerging economies. • Little contribution of manufacturing firms to exports due to low productivity. • A few companies (mining and manufacturing) are responsible for the bulk of Zambia’s exports. • Firms marked by low capacity utilization. • Fairly low technology intensity. • Difficult access to finance; high cost of borrowing. • Low graduation of micro and small enterprises to medium and large scale. • Industrial Zones not fully established to drive growth in manufacturing. • Manufacturing heavily concentrated in two provinces, namely Lusaka and Copperbelt.

Manufacturing is heavily concentrated in two Provinces, namely Lusaka and Copperbelt. This is in itself is not uncommon in developing and middle-income countries. In 2015 for instance the region of Bangkok (Thailand) accounted for 40.6% of total manufacturing value added. What is important is the dynamics; twenty years earlier (1995), Bangkok represented 51.3% of manufacturing value added.

Table 8 illustrates the skewed, spatial and distribution of manufacturing, mining and electricity generation at provincial level in Zambia.

Table 8 - Provincial contribution (%) to the Industrial Added Value 2015 (current prices) Province Manufacturing Mining Electricity generation Central 0.60% 0% 2.10% Copperbelt 48.90% 58.40% 2.80% Lusaka 43.40% 1.70% 0% North-Western 0% 39.50% 0.10% Southern 7.10% 0.40% 94.60% Other Provinces 0% 0% 0.40% Source: National Accounts published by NESDB), indicating regional rebalancing of value added creation

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Inter-sectorial linkages between Manufacturing and other sectors are presented in the Table below. From the table, it is evident that manufacturing has strong forward and backward linkages with other sectors. For instance, the contribution of Manufacturing to Agriculture output is 13.3 percent while Agriculture provides 26.5 percent of output into Manufacturing. However, given the minimal contribution of Manufacturing to GDP, the overall contribution of these linkages to economic growth and transformation is limited.

Table 9 - Inter-sectoral linkages in agriculture and manufacturing (K million, 2010) Products Agriculture % Manufacturing % Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,198.8 7.8 7,901.6 26.5 Products of Mining and quarrying 5,560.9 18.7 Products of Manufacturing 2,031.2 13.3 5,066.4 17.0 Products of electricity, gas 86.4 0.6 451.0 1.5 Products of water supply, sewerage, waste management 27.9 0.2 143.7 0.5 Construction work 147.1 1.0 39.9 0.1 Products of Tertiary Industries 2,731.8 17.9 2,678.2 9.0 Gross Value Added at basic prices 9,068.9 59.2 7,939.4 26.7 Total Output 15,292.1 100 29,780.9 100 Source: CSO Input Output Table

Manufacturing in the SNDP/R-SNDP

The goal stated in the SNDP is “A diversified and competitive export led value adding manufacturing sector which will contribute 12.5 percent to GDP”. The strategic focus was to strengthen and widen the country’s manufacturing base with emphasis on backward and forward linkages given the country’s wide resource base. The stated objectives were:

• To expand the industrial base increase value addition; • To facilitate private sector development; • To promote the growth of MSMEs; • To promote rural based industrial enterprises.

The SNDP and R-SNDP both considered Manufacturing as a growth sector and focused on similar objectives. However, the R-SNDP did not contain a specific chapter on Manufacturing. The KPIs in the SNDP were:

• Share of Total Exports in 2015: 4 percent. • Manufacturing Value Added of 2 billion ZMK (this indicator was meaningless as it did not account for inflation).

• Manufacturing Annual Growth Rate: increasing to 5 percent by 2015. • Share of Total Employment: 4 percent in 2015.

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KPIs in R-SNDP were:

• Manufacturing Annual Growth Rate increasing from 5.8% in 2013 to 8.7% in 2016. • Manufacturing contribution to total GDP increasing from 7.9% in 2013 to 9.1% in 2016.

The projects and activities expected to contribute to these results were: • 4 Multi-Facility Economic Zones operational and 2 Industrial Parks established; • 10 billion USD of investment pledges received; • 250 MSMEs access credit, 100 MSMEs linked, 9 industrial clusters established, 5 business incubators established; • 4 rural-based companies established.

The R-SNDP confirmed: a) the MFEZs (Multi-Facility Economic Zone)/Industrial Parks, b) business incubation centres and industrial clusters and business linkages avenues, c) stresses entrepreneurship training and development, and d) focuses on infrastructure development to promote rural industrialization.

The total financing requirements of the SNDP and R-SNDP were estimated at 53 billion ZMW in the SNDP and at 45 billion ZMW in the R-SNDP (excluding personal emoluments) respectively. The share in planned expenditure of SNDP programmes allocated to the Manufacturing sector was a mere 0.21 percent. Clearly, under the SNDP, the Budget for programmes/activities in Manufacturing was marginal.

In terms of Budget, the Ministry in charge of Commerce, Trade and Industry is a minor player. This is not unusual for a country which does not follow a command-economy model. The Table below shows the budget trend between 2010 and 2016.

Table 10 - Annual Budget and actual Expenditure of Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry (K’ million) 2010 2011 2012 2013** 2014 2015 2016 Budget 41,590.70 73,921.30 99,589.50 107.1 239.3 292.3 318.3 Actual 37,189,8 62,819.20 79,791.60 83.9 203 246.7 225.5 Consumer Price Index 100 106.4 113.4 121.3 130.8 144 169.8 Source: Ministry of Finance

Notes to the Table: • Budget and Actual expenditure are inevitably in current prices; therefore, the Consumer Price Index is added to the table to raise awareness that a Kwacha of 2016 is not worth the same as a Kwacha in 2010 as price inflation has been almost 70% between the two years; • There was a currency re-denomination in 2013 (three zeros were slashed from the ZMW); • By end of December 2016, MCTI had 363 positions of which Cooperatives Department had the largest number while the Industry Department had 23 staff; • The MCTI is responsible for Cooperatives Development, which from an international perspective is an unusual mandate for a Ministry in charge of Industry and Trade.

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Manufacturing, Mining, Private Sector development, MSMEs and economic diversification were themes hardly developed in the R-SNDP document. Public expenditures, whether in current or in real terms, were not a game changer. The performance of Manufacturing, for instance, is therefore more likely to be affected by enabling (structural) policies rather than by what is essentially a Government-led investment plan (SNDP/R-SNDP).

Below is an overview of policies relevant for manufacturing:

Policy Measures Remarks Creating an enabling business environment including Regulatory reform has been initiated and is ongoing. through the development of infrastructure. Facilitation of clearing of goods at major ports in order to In Doing Business 2018, Zambia now ranks overall 85 out decongest border posts. of 190 territories); unfortunately, on the criterion of Trading across borders, Zambia ranks only 150.

The Provinces of Zambia are increasingly being linked which is bound to improve market integration and reduce production and transport costs.

However, the corporate income tax is comparatively high. Promotion of value addition (to minerals). Value addition beyond smelters and refineries can only happen gradually with development of domestic and regional market because fabricated metal products branch normally develops close to markets where final demand exists.

In terms of downstream manufacturing (fabricated metal products and semi-finished products) there are only 3 players in Zambia, none established in Economic Zones. The policies and incentives are not enabling, as per the private sector representative organizations. Quality Infrastructure Developing a Quality Infrastructure is a requirement if Zambia wishes to participate in international trade, outside Zambia benefits from a UNIDO project with a legal/ minerals. In particular food products and manufactured institutional re-organization component and a laboratory products are subject to technical regulations (for safety and upgrading (investments have been made in laboratories) security reasons). and capacity building component. Investments in the Quality Infrastructure must be selective There exist conflicts between practices in Zambia and and progressive, yet substantial. Laboratories need to international Best Practices. Therefore, 4 bills have been ensure that services are provided on a cost-sharing basis enacted in 2017, regarding metrology (Metrology Act), to avoid that the Government Budget is drained by the costs standardization (Standards Act), technical regulations of the system. (National Technical Regulation Act) and Compulsory Standards Act. The laboratories need to put in place a management model to ensure maintenance of equipment and continuous Zambia has separate institutions for Standards and training of technical staff. Metrology: Zambia Bureau of Standards and Zambia Weights and Measures Agency. MFEZs/Industrial Zones The MFEZs have not been fully operationalized despite that Industrial Zones have the potential to spearhead industrial Status: development and development of manufactured exports of • Chambishi MFEZ (41 companies registered) a country. • Lusaka East MFEZ (14 enterprises registered) • Lusaka South MFEZ (14 investors signed lease The challenge is to get investors into the zones. agreements) • Roma Industrial Park which is a mixed-use SMEs do not think they have capacity to enter into the zones. development (slow uptake of commercial and light Communication/marketing is not clear; misconceptions industry area) exist. • Sub-Sahara Gemstone Industrial Park (no progress) • Kalumbila MFEZ (preparatory stage) Furthermore, the zones need qualified developers; the • Chembe MFEZ (962 ha of land was secured from the selection of a developer is an important step. traditional leadership Source: 2016 Annual Report of the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry.

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Policy Measures Remarks Business Upgrading: · The Ministry of Labour is not the appropriate location for a productivity improvement/ business upgrading programme; reportedly, the advisory services provided are basic and generic. • Productivity improvement: a productivity department • Zambia does not possess a genuine network of exists at the Ministry of Labour. technical centres (following the examples of France, • Kaizen Institute of Zambia: supported by JICA since Portugal, Tunisia, Morocco and even Ethiopia). Need to 2014, aiming at productivity improvement in private initiate technical exchange programmes with foreign industrial and public sector. countries. • Technical Centres. • The plan to open a “Technical Centre for Engineering Products” needs to be operationalised.

• A National Technology Business Centre has existed since 2002, but it has a different function, this needs to be urgently addressed. Business Linkages between MSMEs – as suppliers -- and A number of memoranda have been signed between SMEs large companies. and large companies. The programme, started in 2012, but seems to have lost momentum. SME preference in public procurement: The effectiveness of the policy depends on the capacity of local SMEs to qualify for the competition. A price preference system indeed exists. The Law foresees that certain markets may be reserved to national SMEs or Reportedly, the capacity is limited for SMEs to participate in SMEs can claim a price preference. This latter rule implies large tenders, hence the need for targeted capacity building that the bid price is – for evaluation purpose – reduced by and financing to grow capacities. 4%, 8% or 12% and compared to bid prices of non-national companies. The percentage depends on how much equity of the company belongs to Zambians. The 12% deduction is applied for fully-owned Zambian firms. Proudly Zambian campaign promotes the consumption of The campaign is relatively visible, what is missing is Zambian products and services the drive to change mindsets of consumers to change consumption preferences towards locally produced goods which are relatively competitive in quality. • Entrepreneurship development: The Ministry responsible for Commerce and Industrial • Establishment of business incubators development does not evidently have a genuine • Entrepreneurship training: the Ministry of Education entrepreneurship development programme with qualified (2014) has advocated the idea that TEVET institutions business development experts to play or facilitate the role. to include entrepreneurship in their curriculum. The slow rural industrialization Strategy is in place and requires dedicated resources to make it work.

Some donors have an entrepreneurship programme (e.g. USAID), as well as some private companies (e.g. mines in North Western Province).

The Zambia Development Agency, through the Enterprise Development Division, runs a youth entrepreneurship programme (Building Young Entrepreneurs) in partnership with UNDP and World and private partners.

Evidence shows that Entrepreneurship training for Youths is a cost-effective way of increasing the likelihood that they will at some time start a business and do so with lower risk to failure. TEVET Continuing training and youth training should be financed (partially) through a Training Fund with revenue from a skills development levy of up to 1% of the wages fund of businesses and national NGOs introduced in 2016.

There is need to devise a clear operations framework for the Fund avoid it being applied on unrelated ventures.

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Policy Measures Remarks Growth Poles The 7th National Development Plan envisages a quick- win for accelerated creation of jobs in certain Provinces (forestry industry development, coffee and tea processing, textile industry, fruit processing industry milling industry etc);

There is need to develop these along the models of Growth Poles policy in Morocco (Tangier area) and Gabon.

Nevertheless, the Kafue Iron and Steel Economic Facility Zone has the potential to be a growth pole considering that it is private sector-drive and based on a corporate management model. Access to Finance: These policies are only mentioned in the recently enacted Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme Zambia • Credit facility for SMEs Plus (2017). • Credit Guarantee Scheme for SMEs An allocation of K187 million approved by Parliament for 2016 was not received. Through CEEC (Citizens Economic Empowerment Commission) the Ministry continues to provide finance to MSMEs at lower interest rates. Investment Banking: By End of 2015 (source: Annual Report) the total investment portfolio was K440.2 million which makes it a small player The Development Bank of Zambia has a mandate to in the capital market. make long, medium and short-term finance and equity investment for economic development.

Performance of Manufacturing during the SNDP/R-SNDP period

Manufacturing consists of a range of sectors each of which contribute to growth. The details are shown in Table 11.

Table 11 - Composition of Manufacturing Sector (Current Prices) and Real Growth Manufacturing sub sector 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mean Food, beverages, tobacco 37.40% 30.60% 33.80% 35.90% 37.40% 32.00% 34.50% Textile and leather 4.00% 1.50% 1.60% 1.70% 1.30% 1.10% 1.90% Wood and wood products 2.30% 2.30% 2.50% 2.40% 2.10% 1.80% 2.20% Paper and paper products 3.30% 2.90% 2.40% 1.90% 1.80% 1.80% 2.40% Chemicals, rubber, plastic products 6.10% 15.00% 14.80% 9.90% 9.70% 10.10% 10.90% Non-metallic mineral products 9.00% 7.70% 8.20% 9.40% 11.10% 12.50% 9.60% Basic metal products 25.70% 26.50% 24.60% 26.30% 25.50% 28.50% 26.20% Engineering sectors 12.10% 13.60% 12.10% 12.50% 11.20% 12.20% 12.30% Real growth of Manufacturing sector 1.50% 10.60% 4.80% 6.20% 6.50% 5.60% Source: CSO, National Accounts Note: engineering sectors = fabricated metal products, computer, machinery, motor vehicles and installation of machinery. The real growth of Manufacturing for 2016 was initially estimated to be 1.9% Calculations by the author

In respect of the KPIs, the following targets were achieved:

• Share of Total Exports in 2015 is 4 percent. The target was achieved since the share was 9.6 percent in 2015. It is important to mention that Zambia’s exports to the Demographic Republic of Congo (DRC) are 7.5 percent of the total Zambia exports (and re-exports). Zambia’s manufacturing

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exports (source: International Trade Centre, Geneva) amounted to 671.9 million USD (2015). DRC’s imports of manufactured goods from Zambia alone amounted to 513.2 million USD (2015). Therefore, were one to focus only on these trade figures with DRC, they would make Zambia look as an economy specialized in manufactured goods, which it is far from being the case. • Manufacturing value added of 2 billion ZMK. This is a misguiding indicator as it does not account for inflation. • Manufacturing Annual Growth Rate increased to 5 percent by 2015 (SNDP). This was achieved for the SNDP. However, the R-SNDP target for 2016 was not achieved. • Share of Total Employment: 4 percent in 2015.

In 2015, the share of Manufacturing in total GDP was 7.5% (current prices). Preliminary data indicate that the share was 7.6% in 2016. Therefore, the R-SNDP target of 9.1% was not achieved. The SNDP set a target of 10 billion USD investment pledges received, a target which was not sector specific. The Balance of Payments data (source: Central Bank) show that inward foreign investment have amounted to 8 billion USD over the period 2011-2015. Foreign investment in 2016 was another 1.658 billion USD. The destination of these investments is overwhelmingly the capital-intensive mining sector.

In terms of projects/activities, the MCTI’s annual report informs about progress in the following areas:

• Multi-Facility Economic Zones operational and Industrial Parks established: objective only partially achieved; • MSMEs access credit: target not achieved • MSMEs linkages: successful • Rural industrialization: target was set too low to be meaningful.

With regard to industrial clusters and business incubators, no evidence has been found that the objectives have been met.

In short, the impact of the public expenditure part of the Manufacturing chapter of the SNDP/R- SNDP has been marginal.

However, broadly speaking, the portfolio of policies in place are common sense. Unfortunately, in all policy areas the budgets available have been small – and are still small -- and sometimes decreasing. The Development Bank of Zambia lacks capital to support private sector investment, thus holds only a small portfolio of investments.

Many projects were on a pilot basis at the time of the evaluation. Pilot projects first a) seek to reach a few tens of clients, and b) develop institutional and human capacity. However, when the donor support ends, the project finds it difficult – due to funding constraints and champions among the Government -- to upgrade its support to the critical mass of business clients which would make it statistically significant at sector level.

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There exists no genuine Growth Poles vision and policy. Of all the strategies in place, the MFEZ/ industrial zones policy is probably the least successful, and unfortunately so considering the potential of such a strategy to accelerate industrialization, diversification into higher technology-intensive branches and export development. This strategy requires thorough redesign.

Economic transformation of Zambia will pass through a phase of the emergence of new entrepreneurs, robust manufacturing sector growth, an increased share of manufacturing in GDP (from less than 10 percent to 18 percent as per the Vision-2030 target), an increased share of manufactured goods exports (to over half of total exports), a trend towards higher technology intensity of manufacturing and efficient import substitution.

4.2.1.1 Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions:

Relevance: • Most measures in favour of the manufacturing sector are relevant. • Effectiveness: • Effectiveness is questionable because of limited critical mass (of resources and initiatives) to bring Zambia on a path of accelerated industrialization.

Efficiency: • As effectiveness is questionable, efficiency is not a meaningful criterion in this context.

Impact: • In particular, the Impact of the MFEZs policy is limited, which is quite unfortunate because Industrial Zones have the potential to spearhead industrialization and manufacturing exports.

Sustainability: • Zambia’s Industrial Policy has to be reviewed in terms of selectivity of policy measures.

Recommendations:

a) The MFEZ/industrial zones policy requires thorough redesign. b) The experience with credit guarantee schemes needs to be closely monitored to ensure that the system effectively boosts commercial banks’ credit to the private sector. c) There is a need to proactively incentivise domestic investors, inviting large traders and contractors to diversify into manufacturing while offering them targeted credits and equity participation (through the Development Bank of Zambia) as well as technical assistance and training packages. d) There is no sound manufacturing sector without healthy entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship development initiatives need to be multiplied following innovative models. e) A consolidated Business Upgrading programme need to emerge from existing disconnected initiatives which seek to enhance productivity.

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4.2.2 Commerce and Trade

Profile of the Commerce and Trade sector

Commerce and Trade is the subject of chapter 16 of the SNDP. However, the R-SNDP document does not include a separate chapter on Commerce and Trade. The SNDP document sets Commerce and Trade as “exports”, as evidenced by a stated Goal: “To increase the contribution of exports to GDP from 35 percent to 40 percent.” “The Plan will target the following products of high export potential: Processed Foods, Textile and Garments, Engineering Products, Gemstones, Leather and Leather Products, Wood and Wood Products, agriculture products such as coffee, tobacco and cotton.”

Reducing the Commerce and Trade sector to exports is clearly a paradox of the Plan, because both National Accounts and Input-Output Table for Zambia correctly treat exports as a component of final demand for each individual productive sector, be it mining, manufacturing, agriculture or a tradable service sector. Export competitiveness is either a sector matter or a matter of macroeconomic policy (e.g. exchange rate policy), less a matter of productivity of a commerce and trade sector.

Similarly, both the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) treat “trade” as a distinct activity going well beyond the export activity. The 2014 LFS estimates that 692,078 persons were employed in trade – 11.8% of total employment - of which 95% in the informal sector (mostly “survivalists”). The LCMS (2015) estimates that trade employed 14.9% of all employed persons. Trade was the single largest activity in the urban area (almost one third of employment).

In 2010 the trade sector accounted for 19.1% of GDP at factor cost (current prices). By 2015, the share had increased to 23.6% .

Commerce and Trade in the SNDP/R-SNDP

The strategic focus under the SNDP was value addition to locally produced goods for increased domestic and foreign market earnings. The instruments were Private Sector Development Reform Programme, Commerce/Trade and Industrial Policy, MSME Development Policy, National Quality Policy and Intellectual Property Policy.

The objectives for the chapter were:

• To increase the volume of exports in regional and international markets; • To stimulate the growth of domestic trading sector and increase trade in services; • To secure and facilitate improved market access for locally produced goods and services.

Specific strategies and instruments envisaged were: promotion of non-traditional exports, financial assistance to enhance exports, establishment of MFESs at border posts, establishment of One-Stop Border Post at major border towns, promote the consumption of quality locally produced goods and services, establishment of one-stop shops for business licensing in each province, capacity building for private sector actors on trade related matters, and strengthen compliance with international standards.

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The share in planned expenditure of SNDP programmes allocated to Commerce and Trade sector was a mere 0.09 percent.

Some of the KPIs defined were:

• The share of Non-traditional Exports to total exports to reach 30 percent by 2015 (SNDP) and 41 percent by 2016 (R-SNDP); • Export Propensity (share of exports in GDP) to reach 40 percent by 2015 (SNDP) and 45.5 percent by 2016 (R-SNDP). • Performance of Commerce and Trade during the SNDP/R-SNDP period • With respect to both KPIs, this Report comes up with the following observations: • Non-traditional Exports represented 22.2 percent of total exports in 2014, increasing to 25 percent and 26.7 percent respectively in 2015 and 2016, in spite of a decrease in absolute value (in US dollar terms). • The export propensity was 38.6 percent in 2015 and 35.2 percent in 2016 (goods and services exports as a percentage of GDP).

In short, both targets were missed. In terms of Outputs, an overall assessment is difficult to make from the Annual Performance Reports (APRs); for the following reasons:

Commerce and Trade are neither treated in the APR 2012, nor in APR 2014;

• Indicators and targets (e.g. one-stop border posts, MFEZs at border towns, business licensing reforms, one-stop shop for business licensing and registration, development of products for export to new markets, strengthening of standards in products/services) were defined in APR 2011, but no longer systematically reported in years thereafter; • New activities are included in the narrative starting APR 2013 but without targets set; • The link between strengthening of the Quality Infrastructure and export development is insufficiently described. • No information is provided about the impact of trade missions and organization of – or participation in – exhibitions, so no value-for-money assessment can be made; • Participation in trade negotiations are reported but no impact assessment.

The overall assessment is thus inconclusive but likely major output targets have been missed. Finally, although no indicator was set for export market diversification, it is useful to illustrate the trend of Zambia’s exports by market of destination (see Table below).

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Table 12 - Top ten export markets for Zambia in 2010 (and compared with 2016); percentage of total exports Market 2010 2016 Switzerland 51.00% 39.70% China 20.20% 18.60% South Africa 9.10% 6.10% DRC 4.60% 6.30% UAE 2.40% 5.60% UK 1.90% 3.80% Zimbabwe 1.70% 3.50% Malawi 1.40% 1.90% Belgium 1.00% 0.10% Egypt 0.70% 0.00% Source: International Trade Centre, Geneva

Notes to the table: • Changes in in market share of Switzerland are almost entirely linked to fluctuations in copper exports; • New significant destination markets are Singapore (5.7% in 2016), Hong Kong (1.6% in 2016) and India (1.1% in 2016).

4.2.2.1 Conclusions and Recommendations – Commerce and Trade

Conclusions:

Relevance: • The policies are certainly relevant.

Effectiveness: • The effectiveness when it comes to boosting non-traditional exports was minimal. This is not only because resources allocated were insufficient, but also because there were few exporters willing to take the necessary risk to achieve total productivity levels significantly higher enough for sustainability. Total productivity implies: a product or service that meets efficacy of cost control, product/service innovation, flexibility of the production system, and commercial aggressiveness.

Efficiency: • No straightforward evidence was provided in available reports to demonstrate efficiency.

Impact: • Any positive trends that may be identified (with regards to non-traditional exports) are more likely to be the result of private initiative rather than public action.

Sustainability: • The actions are intrinsically sustainable but must be multiplied – and better targeted -- and coupled with a business upgrading programme which aims to boost productivity of potential exporters.

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Recommendations:

a) The trade promotion initiatives must be coupled with entrepreneurship development and a business upgrading programme which aims to boost the productivity of formal and mature businesses. b) Serious concerns are often formulated about the value-for-money of trade promotion programmes and activities, not only in Zambia. Therefore, budget allocation must always be highly selective and M&E must be strengthened. The same for investments in the upgrading of Quality Infrastructure, which is intrinsically expensive. c) Reform initiatives of the business environment must continue relentlessly. d) Efforts to establish One-Stop Border Posts must be multiplied and coordinated with road and railway infrastructure development.

4.3 Mining

4.3.1 Profile of the Mining sector

Zambia possesses considerable geological potential. Nevertheless, copper mining overshadows, cobalt, nickel, gold, uranium, emerald, rare earths and coal mining. There also exists potential for iron ore, manganese and phosphate extraction.

In 1963, copper production was slightly above 600,000 tonnes. Peak production was reached in 1969 (720,000 tonnes). Nationalization of copper mines then led to a gradual decline in production to 259,000 tonnes in 2000. With a return to private ownership , production picked up again.to a peak of 797,000 tonnes in 2017 (CSO, 2017) . Meanwhile coal production declined from a peak of 277,800 tonnes to as low as 57,000 tonnes in 2016.

Zambia is the World’s sixth largest copper producer. The ambition is to reach the 1 million tonnes mark, moving in fifth position within reach of China, USA and Peru but still at a considerable distance from Chile. In terms of productivity, 1 employee in the Chile copper mining industry produces 35 tonnes of copper (2014); in Zambia (2014), productivity per employee was about 10 tonnes.

The 2015 LCMS Report estimates that mining (and quarrying) sector employed 83,548 , of which 11,901 in the informal sector (small-scale mining). The 2013 LFS Report puts informal employment at 20,643. It was estimated that 10% of copper production in 2011 came from small mines. However, as average copper grades are falling, the opportunities for profitable copper mining by small scale mines are dwindling. For a given profitability level, small scale mines need to have access to higher grade ores than what large mines require.

Table 13 shows selected exports of mining products and semi-finished products for 2017.

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Table 13 - Selected exports of Zambia 2017 (value) Products Million $ Percent Copper, unrefined, copper anodes 3,618.10 54.8 Copper, refined; and copper alloys 2,443.70 37 Cobalt oxides and hydroxides 150.3 2.3 Cobalt mattes and other intermediate products 124.5 1.9 Gold 95 1.4 Copper wire 85.1 1.3 Sulphuric acid 72.4 1.1 Copper ores and concentrates 5.5 0.1 Stranded wire, cables of copper 2.2 <0.1 Waste and scrap of precious metal 2 <0.1 Plates, sheets and strip of copper 0.2 <0.1 Total 6,599 100 Source: International Trade Centre (Geneva) Note: product categories according to HS6 code Calculations by the author

Copper production depends on a variety of technologies: open-cast and underground mining of ore, crushing of ore, concentrating, smelting leaching, refining. In spite of technological complexity, the economics of copper mining are simple. Copper cathode is a standard product which fetches an international price on the London Metal Exchange (LME). On the supply side, the long-term unit production cost is affected, among others by;

• Exploration costs, • The depth of ore bodies, • The quality of the ore (copper content of Zambia’s ore is now less than 1% in North Western Province), • The presence of other minerals in copper ore (by-products such as gold, silver, cobalt, uranium, rare earths etc. which increase profitability of mining), • The availability of water, • The availability and cost of electricity (the mining industry accounts for half of electricity consumption in Zambia), • Transport costs, • Labour costs and labour skills, • The availability of quick-reaction suppliers of inputs and services, • The cost of rehabilitation of the environment, and • The cost of various community development initiatives which mines now tend to undertake as part of social responsibility.

When copper prices are low, the margin of copper mines falls. If copper prices are low for a prolonged time then the mines with the highest long-term cost will close or be put on care-and-maintenance status.

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Mining being one of the key contributors to Government revenue, the Treasury has been seeking a fair revenue from minerals production in the form of royalties, corporate income tax, personal income tax, customs duties, etc. Of these, the most critical was the mineral royalty which was calculated on production of the mineral.

Mining and petroleum are often regarded as islands in the economy. Being a capital-intensive sector, the sector creates high-income jobs, but relatively few of them. The sector nevertheless creates indirect jobs. Table 14 illustrates inter-sectoral linkages of the mining sector.

Table 14 - Inter-sectoral linkages in mining (K million, 2010) Products Mining Percent Products of agriculture, forestry and fishing Products of Mining and quarrying 2,816.20 10.8 Products of Manufacturing 4,441.00 17 Products of electricity, gas 1,356.70 5.2 Products of water supply, sewerage, waste management 323.4 1.2 Construction work 459.7 1.8 Products of Tertiary Industries 3,921.00 15 Gross Value Added at basic prices 12,857.30 49.1 Total Output 26,175.20 100 Source: calculations on the basis of the 2010 Input-Output table (CSO)

4.3.2 Mining in the SNDP/R-SNDP

In the SNDP, the goal was “To raise the sector’s contribution to GDP to at least 20 percent by end- 2015.” The strategic focus was on increasing exploration projects, sustainable production and management of mineral resources and increase productivity so as to maximize economic benefits from the sector. Furthermore, the sector was to focus on increasing value addition, expanding formal employment levels and its overall contribution to GDP. In addition, the sector was to focus on human development to increase efficiency and safety of mining operations.

Among the projects to be implemented were:

• Establishment of a mineral resource endowment database; • Geological mapping, exploration and mineral resource surveys; • Development of a national baseline environmental database for the mining sector; and • Development of climate change resilient mine designs.

The R-SNDP did not include a separate chapter on the mining sector. Nevertheless, the Plan document confirms that the thrust is to complete revision of mining policy and legislation aimed at facilitating mineral diversification away from copper and cobalt to others which includes nickel, gold, manganese, iron and uranium as well as in-country emerald cutting/polishing activities. Furthermore, the Government intended to promote an environment aimed at a productive relationship between the mines and mine suppliers.

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The KPIs in the SNDP were:

• Sector employment of 70,000 by 2015. • Level of copper production: 994,463 tonnes in 2015. • 16 large-scale mines in operation in 2015 (and 150 small-scale mines). • Number of mineral processing facilities: 25. • 90 percent of mining companies complying with statutory safety, health and environmental regulations.

The share in planned expenditure of SNDP programmes allocated to the Mining sector was a mere 0.14 percent although mining is the first generator of foreign currency for Zambia.

Table 15 - Mining in the SNDP (2011-2015) (billion ZMW) Growth Sector GRZ Foreign Financing Total Mining 66.3 (0.16 %) 10.8 (0.08 %) 77.1 (0.14 %) Total for Plan 40,204.99 13,357.56 53,562.56 Source: SNDP Note: The percentage is of total

The planned SNDP Budget for projects/activities in Mining was marginal. Table 16 shows the trend in budget evolvement between 2010 and 2016 for the Ministry responsible for Mining. Overall, the budget for Geological Survey and for the Department of Mines Development was small and ultimately fell in 2016.

Table 16 - Annual Budget and actual Expenditure of Ministry of Mines and Mineral Development (million K) 2010 2011 2012 2013** 2014 2015 2016 Budget 24,984.80 25,728.00 * - - 232.6 37 Actual 19,200.40 22,157.90 - - - 231.3 33.3 Of which: Geological Survey 6,393.10 7,142.90 7,277.10 5.375 n.a. 1.4 Mines Development 2,730.70 3,355.00 5,312.20 8.362 n.a. 2.7 Consumer Price Index 100 106.4 113.4 121.3 130.8 144 169.8 Source: Ministry of Finance

Notes to the table: • Budget and Actual expenditure are inevitably in current prices; therefore, the Consumer Price Index is added to the table to raise awareness that a Kwacha of 2016 is not worth the same as a Kwacha in 2010 as price inflation has been almost 70% between the two years; • In 2012, Energy was added to Mines and Mineral Development; • There was a currency re-denomination in 2013 (three zeros were slashed from the ZWW)

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Performance of Mining during the SNDP/R-SNDP period

A review of the Annual Progress Reports between 2011 and 2016 leads to the following observations with regard to projects and activities:

• No separate chapter for Mining was included in APR 2012 and APR 2013; • In terms of geological mapping, progress was certainly made but the APRs do not allow to ascertain whether self-imposed targets were ultimately met; • The same holds true for the minerals database, the environmental database projects and the diversification to energy minerals; • Number of mines inspections was not documented in five out of six reports; • Modernization of the Mines Development Department took place and at least three donor-funded projects started with a focus on capacity building; • New mining legislation was enacted in 2015.

However, what ultimately matters is how much exploration, mine development/expansion/ upgrading takes place. In respect of KPIs, the targets of the SNDP were missed:

• Actual 710,860 tonnes of copper production in 2015 against a target set of 994,463 tonnes. • The target of large-scale mines in operation was also missed.

Mining for metals is a cost-based activity by excellence. Government actions which contribute to reducing inputs costs and risks increase the likelihood that operators will invest in new mines, in the expansion of existing mines and in extending the economic life of the latter. Geological mapping and databases are a public good which reduces the risks in decision making by operators. A significant proportion of Zambia’s territory remains to be surveyed.

Infrastructure investments in energy (electricity) and transport (road, railway) directly reduced operating costs for mining companies. Connecting the North Western Province of Zambia opened the opportunity for new mine development in that region. The North Western Province has become the origin of half Zambia’s production.

The regulatory environment for mining was strengthened in 2016 with the revision of the mining policy. Other important regulations include the Mines and Minerals Act (regulating the granting of licenses), the Environmental Pollution and Pollution Control, and the Forests and Water Resources regulations.

As the mining sector is capital intensive, mining companies are seeking policy stability, not unpredictable changes in the fiscal regime. After the introduction of a royalty-only regime in 2015, an amendment was passed in May 2016. The bill lowered the royalty rate for copper by setting it at a minimum of 4% and a maximum of 6% depending on the prevailing price for copper. The amendment was applauded by the mining companies.

The Government sought to promote value addition to minerals. However, value addition beyond smelters and refineries can only happen gradually with the development of the domestic and regional

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market because the fabricated metal products branch, normally develops close to the market where the final demand exists.

In terms of downstream manufacturing of fabricated metal products and semi-finished products, there are 3 major players in Zambia.

4.3.3 Conclusions and Recommendations - Mining

Conclusions:

Relevance: • The chapter for Mining in SNDP/R-SNDP is relevant. However, considering that mining development depends so heavily on infrastructure development, the Mining chapter cannot be seen in isolation from the chapters on Infrastructure.

Effectiveness: • Geological mapping and databases were most effective, although the effort was insufficiently scaled. Infrastructure development is equally effective because of the direct impact on unit costs of mining.

• The combined effect of these initiatives is that copper production might exceed the 1 million tons mark in the near future, assuming that the LME copper price returns to the 7,000-8,000 USD region. If the royalty policy had not been revised in 2016, the counterfactual copper production would have been less than what has been recorded. Much less effective is the value addition initiative the success of which hinges on a broader industrial policy as well as economic development in Zambia’s neighbouring countries.

Efficiency: • The planned Budget allocation in the SNDP and budgetary outlays for measures under the Ministry responsible for mining was insignificant. Yet, because of existing policy effectiveness, efficiency has been achieved.

Impact: • The impact will be felt with a recovery of copper prices. The sector is also feeling the positive outcomes of infrastructure development (roads and energy). The North Western Province has become the origin of half Zambia’s production. The development of road infrastructure and connection to the electricity grid has enabled mining development in this Province.

Sustainability: • As the policy stands the sustainability is guaranteed and Zambia can become an ever more important exporter of copper.

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Recommendations:

a) A significant proportion of Zambia’s territory remains to be surveyed. Efforts of geological surveying should therefore be intensified. b) Rehabilitation of the railway infrastructure should contribute to reducing unit transport costs. c) An activist policy would be essential to promulgate as a means to promote diversification into minerals other than copper as well as value addition. National entrepreneurs would need to be incentivized to move into upstream activities. Equally financial institutions should be encouraged to accommodate investments that promote such developments.

4.4 Science, Technology and Innovation

4.4.1 Profile of Science, Technology and Innovation in Zambia

The National Science and Technology Council, established by the Science and Technology Act of 1997, is a statutory body through which the Government of Zambia directs policy on the development and application of science and technology in the country. Science and Technology is guided by the National Policy on Science and Technology.

The Ministry of Higher Education created the Strategic Research Fund (SRF), implemented by the Council. It supports basic and applied research in national priority areas.

The NSTC works in collaboration with several organizations such as the University of Zambia, National Remote Sensing Centre, Zambia Agriculture Research Institute (ZARI), National Institute for Scientific and Industrial Research (NISIR), Central Veterinary Research Institute (CVRI), National Technology Business Centre, University Teaching Hospital, Tropical Diseases Research Centre.

NISIR operates a number of centres in food science, energy research, materials and engineering, animal and plant science.

4.4.2 Science, Technology and Innovation in the SNDP/R-SNDP

In respect of Science, Technology and Innovation, the Vision of SNDP was “A nation in which STI are the driving forces in national development and competes globally by 2030.”

The goal was to establish an effective and efficient system for increased productivity and competitiveness by end 2015. The strategic focus was to enhance linkage between research and industry (commercialization of innovations), increase human resource capacity in R&D institutions and improve the infrastructure and equipment. Vision and Goal did not change under the R-SNDP. However, the strategic focus was qualified: To enhance total factor productivity and to focus on value addition technologies for agro-products and other local raw materials.

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In the SNDP, the objectives were fourfold: a) To develop medical, agricultural, manufacturing, energy and pharmaceutical technologies. Thirty-six value addition technologies were to be developed over five years and 22 innovations/ technologies were to be developed for MSMEs. b) To promote the commercialization of innovations and R&D results. c) To improve and develop infrastructure capacity for R&D; d) To strengthen human resource capacity.

Objectives b, c, and d concerned capacity development in terms of R&D units rehabilitated/developed/ equipped (in all 14 R&D units), and, scientists to be trained (50 at Ph.D., level and 150 at M.Sc., level).

The R-SNDP confirms the need for sector reform along the following pillars:

• Upgrading of Science/Technology and Innovations institutions; • Commercialization of R&D outputs; • Provision of relevant support to R&D activities; • Enhancing coordination to harness linkages with other sectors.

The R-SNDP confirmed the objectives of capacity development, enhancing the output of Research and Development, and the commercialization/transfer/diffusion of technologies. Coordination was added as a program. The document specifically mentioned the strategy around providing incentives to industry to uptake R&D products from public institutions. This was to be complemented by facilitation of the establishment of innovation/industrial clusters and incubators as well as science and technology parks. The R-SNDP Implementation Plan set the following targets:

• 24 R&D units rehabilitated or constructed; • 91 scientists trained at M.Sc. and Ph.D. level; • 33 technologies developed and commercialized;

The 5-year SNDP budget for STI initiatives was 101.29 billion ZMW representing 0.19% of the total SNDP envelope, which is equivalent to approximately 21.4 million USD at the 2010 exchange rate. Two-thirds was allocated to improvement of equipment and infrastructure (rehabilitation and new R&D units) while 27% was allocated to the development of technologies (value addition and specific technologies for MSMEs). The balance was to be allocated essentially to Human Capacity Development, e.g. bursaries for postgraduate studies.

The total R/SNDP budget for STI initiatives was 237.8 million ZMW (see Table below) which is equivalent to 46.2 million USD at the January 2013 exchange rate. Of this, 85% was allocated to infrastructure and equipment for research centres, 5.5% to research projects and 3% to commercialization of R&D outputs. The focus sectors were agriculture/livestock/fisheries, water, transport, ICT, industrial materials (e.g. building materials) and minerals, energy and commercialization of health research technologies, wood research technologies, leather research products and alternative energy.

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Neither plans anticipated foreign financing.

Implementation of the STI programmes required coordination with various ministries involving Agriculture and Livestock, Commerce/Trade/industry, Education/Science/TVET, Health, and Lands/ Natural Resources and Environmental Protection.

Table 17 shows annual budgets and actual expenditure in respect of STI programmes.

Table 17 - Annual Budget and actual Expenditure of Ministry STCTI, Department of Science and Technol- ogy (mill. K) 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 2014 2015 2016 Budget 3,669.90 6,048.50 8,544.40 9.270.0 8.996.0 n.a. 75.3 Actual 1,625.00 5,673.30 7,706.80 3.483.0 8.060.0 n.a. 60.8 Consumer Price Index 100.0 106.4 113.4 121.3 130.8 144 169.8 Source: Ministry of Finance

Notes to the table: • Budget and Actual expenditure are inevitably in current prices; therefore, the Consumer Price Index is added to the table to raise awareness that a Kwacha of 2016 is not worth the same as a Kwacha in 2010 as price inflation has been almost 70% between the two years; • In 2012, Science and Technology came under Ministry of Education; in 2016, the sector was under Ministry of Higher Education • There was a currency re-denomination in 2013 (three zeros were slashed from the ZMW)

4.4.3 Performance of Science, Technology and Innovation during the SNDP/R-SNDP period

In the context of the SNDP/R-SNDP evaluation, it was not possible to study the operations of the research centres and laboratories, this being outside the scope of the assignment due to time constraints.

The following paragraphs consolidate the findings of the Annual Progress Reports. Table 18 illustrates budget performance.

Table 18 - Budget performance (Expenditure as % of Budget) Areas Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Infrastructure and Equipment Improvement 80% 100% 5.60% 18% 31% R&D and Innovation; Commercialization 24% 98% 83% 100% 65% Human Capacity Development (bursaries for scientists/PhD and MSc) 73% 68% 79% 100% 100% Source: Ministry of Finance

Notes to the table: • Infrastructure and equipment Improvement (new facilities and rehabilitation of existing ones) • No details available in APR 2012. • The National Institute for Scientific and Innovation Research (NISIR) was by far the largest recipient of grants under SNDP. • The target of awarding bursaries to scientists was met in some years, but not in all the years. • Late releases of funds were in part responsible for not meeting expenditure targets.

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Evaluation of the outputs on the basis of the APRs is not an obvious exercise, for the following reasons:

• Targets changed between SNDP and R-SNDP; • The APR reporting format for STI evolved during the period of review; • The APR2012 does not include a section on STI; • The APR2013 is exceptionally positive as regards to technologies developed/ commercialized and linkages established; • It is not always clear from the Output tables what is annual achievement and what is a cumulative achievement; • Narrative and Output tables do not always match (e.g. APR2016); • Activities can have different status: initiated, ongoing, halted, successfully completed, completed but not successful. The APR reporting format does not systematically report on status posing a risk so that apples and oranges risk being mixed. • It is not clear from the APRs whether M.Sc. and Ph.D. students sponsored by the Ministry of Higher Education are assumed to join the STI sector upon their graduation; if not then counting these scholarships under STI is not appropriate.

Conditional on the evaluator’s interpretation of the reports, our assessment of achievements is as follows:

• Compared to the target set in the R-SNDP, the number of research units/laboratories rehabilitated/ equipped seems significant whereas the number of new units established looks insignificant; • Compared to either the higher SNDP or the lower R-SNDP target for scientists trained, the target seems not to have been met (in terms of graduates by 2016); • It seems doubtful that the number of technologies developed and successfully commercialized has met the target.

Other lessons learnt and reported in the APRs are:

• Funding limits delay the commissioning of new research centres/laboratories. • Significant delays exist in research project completion and commercialization. • Commercialization lacks a strong business model. • Understaffing affects capacity in certain laboratories. • High turnover of staff (scientists seeking “greener pastures”, i.e. higher salary/better facilities/ more stable project funding/better opportunities for interaction and promotion). • Insufficient links created with industry; industries are not taking up locally developed technologies from R&D institutions. • It seems easier to commercialize technologies originating from ZARI and CVRI.

Depending on the economic status of a given country the economic development passes through three phases each with a key driver. The following comments on STI are worth mentioning:

1. The fundamental driver in low-income countries is infrastructure and enabling institutions 2. The key driver of middle-income countries is efficiency gains 3. The key driver in high-income countries must be technology and innovation

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Zambia being a lower middle-income economy, the focus ought to be on efficiency (i.e. productivity). This does not mean that Zambia should refrain from spending resources on R&D, but it does mean that the limited funds shall be spent selectively on projects with a high and quick return in priority sectors: agriculture, food industry and energy. During the evaluated period, limited financial resources were thinly spread, with little impact on the set targets.

The fact being that, the pipeline of product development and commercialization was small, scientists were often seeking “greener pastures” with funding from cooperating partners. The private sector did not intensively uptake outputs of research, a sure indication that the country’s business model of Research and Technology Organizations (RTO) is open for improvement. The fact that there was very limited public information (including on the NISIR website) on R&D activities by NISIR was a clear indicator of insufficient business and client orientation.

4.4.4 Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions

Relevance: • The policy and measures were relevant.

Effectiveness: • The effectiveness of the R&D model is questionable, especially that Zambia’s economy was still in a phase where infrastructure, organizational fundamentals and efficiency (i.e. productivity) are drivers of the economy. The economy was not yet mature to benefit from a major indigenous drive of Science & Technology. For a foreseeable future the country needs to import mature technologies before becoming a significant technology producer.

Efficiency: • The policy was not effective, nor could it then be efficient. Overall budget allocations were small; yet some of these funds did not yield acceptable returns (e.g. commercialization of research outputs, investments in human capacity).

Impact: • The impact of the STI complex was marginal so far as the policy effectiveness was low. Insufficient links are created with industry resulting in non-uptake of locally developed technologies from R&D institutions.

Sustainability: • It is questionable. The Business Model needs to be revisited.

Recommendations

a) It is recommended that the Zambian RTOs be compared against Best Practices (as documented by the World Association of Industrial and Technological Research Organization). It is likely that the solution lies in a stronger institutional link of RTOs with the private sector. Some

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RTOs probably have to operate as technical centres providing technological advisory services, technology transfer services (information and acquisition) and training. There should be more focus on adaptation of existing products and processes and less focus -- for now -- on (new) product development.

4.5 Agriculture

4.5.1 Agriculture in the SNDP/R-SNDP

The goal for the agricultural sector was to facilitate the development of a sustainable, diversified and a competitive agriculture sector that assures food and nutrition security at national and household levels, and maximises profits and the Sector’s contribution to GDP.

The objectives for the sector were:

1. To improve sustainable and efficient production, productivity and value-addition of diversified livestock sub-sector. 2. To improve sustainable and efficient production, productivity and value-addition of diversified crop sub-sector. 3. To improve sustainable and efficient production, productivity and value-addition of diversified fisheries sub-sector. 4. To create an enabling environment that will improve the functioning of agricultural markets and increase private sector participation in agricultural marketing and promote value addition 5. To Promote Nationwide Research and Development in Crops, Livestock and Fisheries.

Compared to the original SNDP objectives, the formulations in the R-SNDP were more focused on productivity, diversification and value-addition aspects. The KPIs for the sector were, however, largely maintained from SNDP to R-SNDP, with some indicators added to reflect contribution to GDP growth and to employment. The full list of KPIs in the R-SNDP is:

1. Contribution of agriculture to GDP 2. New land brought under irrigation 3. Percentage change in livestock population and fish production (disaggregated by type of livestock, type of fisheries – capture and aquaculture) 4. Value of agricultural exports as percentage of non-traditional exports 5. Incidence of major livestock disease outbreaks 6. Yield per hectare for selected crops 7. Crop diversification index 8. Jobs created as percentage of working population 9. Growth rate in the agricultural sector (including forestry).

Note that in 2015 the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock was split into two separate Ministries. Namely; Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock.

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4.5.2 Crop sub-sector

Figure 4 shows the main production and productivity trends for the agricultural sector during the period 2011-2016.

The graphs indicate that overall production did not change much during the SNDP/R-SNDP, nor did the productivity. The significant drop in maize production in 2013 was partly caused by army worm outbreaks. The reason for the spike in maize production in 2014 is not clear, but it might relate to commercial farmers increasing maize production based on good market prospects. The high wheat yield was due to the fact that wheat is almost exclusively produced by large commercial farmers. The decline in wheat production and productivity in 2016 was attributed to load shedding impact, since wheat is primarily a winter crop produced under irrigation.

The average yield for maize in 2016 was 2.1 MT/ha according to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture (and close to 2.5 MT/ha according to the FAO database), falling considerably short of the target of 4 MT/ha. The figure is based on the combined average yields of commercial farmers and smallholder farmers. Yields of commercial farmers were typically around 4 to 5 MT/ha, while for smallholder farmers yields are in the range of 1.5 to 2 MT/ha. Figure 4: Production and Yield Trends during SNDP/R-SNDP for Selected Crops

Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and FAO database

Feedback from stakeholders as well as reports from the Ministry of Agriculture and from research organisation IAPRI indicate that some of the main causes for low productivity are:

1. The use of inputs by small and medium farmers did not increase during the SNDP/R-SNDP. Many rural farmers still depended on the FISP/ E-voucher programme for fertilizers, and the amounts were not sufficient to maintain fertility in all fields and often arrived late. Those who did not have access to FISP struggled to buy sufficient inputs at market prices. Further, late arrival of FISP packages resulted in farmers sowing their own traditional/recycled low yielding seeds.

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2. FISP provided the same fertilizer package across the country, in spite of the high variability in soil characteristics. Research by IAPRI indicates that specific fertilizer recommendations, related to different soil types, would help increase productivity.

3. Farm management practices were sub-optimal. Lack of farm mechanisation entails that ploughing is often done too late (missing the first rains) and practices like ploughing and weeding have to be done manually in many areas.

4. Maize was still the dominant crop in areas that are less suitable for maize, such as the low rainfall areas lying mostly in agro-ecological region I, which covers most parts of the southern half of the country.

5. Although, climate smart agriculture, and in particular conservation farming, was widely promoted, there has been low/limited adoption by farmers.

The last two points as indicated in figure 4 that productivity is very vulnerable to increasing climate variability, as shown in the 2013 and 2015 with low rainfall.

Given the low progress recorded in increasing productivity, the target for contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP was not met. While the target for 2016 was 23 percent, the actual contribution was around 10 percent which is lower than the baseline in 2012 of 18 percent.

This trend is also reflected in the annual growth rate during SNDP/R-SNDP, as illustrated in the Figure 5.

Figure 5: Annual growth rate in the agricultural sector during SNDP/R-SNDP

Source: IAPRI, 2016

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Crop diversification is measured through a crop diversification index that calculates the ratio between the area planted with maize and the combined area planted with 12 other crops. The lower the index, the higher the diversification. The baseline in 2012 was 1.04. The value in 2016 was 1.2 (against a target of 0.83), indicating a reduction in crop diversification rather than an increase.

Figure 6 illustrates this lack of diversification for the 4 crops also presented in figures 1 and 2.

Figure 6: Crop diversification trend for selected crops during SNDP/R-SNDP

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and FAO database

Several stakeholders referred to the strong cultural aspect that makes people prefer maize as one of the reasons for low diversification. Apart from maize however, farmers generally do follow a rational approach and will grow crops that they expect to be profitable.

During the SNDP, the FISP programme continued piloting the E-voucher system. The idea behind this system is that farmers should have more freedom to choose other agricultural inputs than the standard FISP package, thereby promoting diversification. So far, however, this has not yielded the desired results. Promoting diversification from the supply side only is likely to fail as long as there is a guaranteed market for maize through the Food Reserve Agency and maize millers and not a guaranteed market for other crops. When such a market is guaranteed, small and medium farmers will adopt other crops like soybean and sunflower, but will still have maize as their main crop.

The introduction of the E-voucher system and its rapid expansion in 2016 led to a number of logistical problems, including late delivery of agricultural inputs by suppliers of agro-dealers.

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Some smallholder farmers in Mungwi district indicated they preferred to go back to the FISP programme whereby inputs were delivered to them. Under the E-voucher scheme, they are obliged to go to the provincial capital Kasama to activate the vouchers. With the logistical problems related to the activation of the e-vouchers, it sometimes required a stay of several days in Kasama.

In terms of irrigation development, the target under R-SNDP was to bring a total of 2,000 ha under irrigation between 2013 and 2016 (500 ha annually). This target apparently only related to smallholder schemes and not to commercial irrigation schemes. Even then, it was a very modest target given the potential of irrigation in a country like Zambia (estimated at 2.75 million ha) with abundant water resources acknowledging the role irrigation can play in increasing productivity and diversification, as well as in building resilience to climate change.

Actual area brought under small-scale irrigation during SNDP was around 2,400 ha, all through projects funded by various CPs. The largest irrigation project, the World Bank (WB)-financed Irrigation Development and Support Programme, was expected to deliver several thousand hectares of irrigation during R-SNDP but experienced many delays. The major problem faced by small to medium scale schemes, was the lack of a well-defined and effective Operations & Management model for irrigation development.

Data on increase in irrigated area of commercial farms could not be ascertained for the whole R-SNDP, but in 2016 alone, commercial farms had added around 5,600 ha.

Production and productivity data for irrigated areas in Zambia could not be obtained by the evaluation team. Undoubtedly, production and productivity per hectare should be higher for irrigated agricultural areas.

Promotion of adoption of conservation farming techniques was one of the key programs that were being implemented during the period of the SNDP. No data was available to enable assessment of progress achieved under conservation farming; wide-scale adoption of conservation agriculture was expected to address issues such as low soil fertility and low soil moisture retention. In addition, conservation farming practices are considered part of climate smart agriculture and would help build the resilience of subsistence farmers against climate change, particularly during periods of drought.

A study on Conservation Agriculture (CA) adoption by IAPRI (2016) found that 8.8 percent of smallholder rural households practiced Conservation Agriculture in the 2013/14 agricultural season. It was, however, found that only 3.7 percent of the 8.8 percent, adopted the full Conservation Agriculture package (minimum tillage, maize-legume rotation and residue retention) and the remainder adopted partial Conservation farming (minimum tillage with either maize-legume rotation or residue retention). Notably, the adoption rates of Conservation Agriculture increased by 6.4 percentage points from 2010/11 agricultural season. While the trend is positive, it is clear that the efforts of the Ministry of Agriculture, together with other partners promoting conservation farming had limited adoption success. The IAPRI study identified a number of barriers to adoption including social and cultural issues and lack of access to the right implements for Conservation Agriculture. This entails changing the implementation model to include interventions to enhance full adoption of the smart agriculture practices.

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4.5.3 Livestock & Fisheries

Good performance was achieved for both livestock diversification and growth. This was measured through percent change in livestock population, with all targets met. It is worth noting that poultry was not included in the KPIs on livestock, yet it is a very important source of meat and income for both urban and rural households.

Figure 7: Livestock growth and diversification during SNDP

Source: Ministry of Agriculture and IAPRI, 2016

The increase in cattle was attributed to an intensified stocking and restocking programme and improved disease control. The strong increase in goats and pigs appeared to be more directly a market driven result as was the spike in sheep numbers in 2013.

The introduction of improved goat varieties like Boer goats was started during SNDP at a small scale. These goats fetched a much better price than traditional goats, but required more management, such as supplementary feeding in the dry season, good housing and water access.

In Mongu, the following prices were quoted for different livestock (current prices at the time of the field visit in May 2018):

• ZMW 100 for a traditional goat • ZMW 1,000 for a boer goat • ZWM 2,000 for a cow

During SNDP significant efforts went into disease control, both in terms of vaccination campaigns, disease diagnostics and control in terms of infrastructure development such as dip tanks, and veterinary laboratories, livestock breeding centres, service centres, market centres and bulking centres. Much of these efforts were supported by CPs – in particular - WB and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) (for vaccinations) and AfDB (African Development Bank) for infrastructure.

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Picture 1 - The veterinary laboratory still under construction in Mongu at the time of field visit in May 2018.

Infrastructure development to support livestock development was also scaled up during the SNDP. Veterinary laboratories were completed by 2013, though some were yet to be fully functional, the case in point being the ones in Mungwi and Mongu.

A number of dip tanks were also constructed in several parts of the country as part of the disease control measures.

The challenges faced in the livestock infrastructure development related to none availability of complementary essential services; such functional boreholes, that ensure constant supply of water to dip-tanks. In some instances it was noted that boreholes were not part of from the tender for the procurement of works for the construction of dip-tanks. This in most cases was as a result of budget limitations. Consequently, this delayed the functioning of the dip tanks.

The fisheries sector equally posited good performance in terms of production, growing by 19 percent from 93,626 MT in 2011 to 116,603MT in 2016. Although, the production of capture fisheries remained largely constant, aquaculture production increased significantly in percentage terms. In absolute numbers, capture fisheries still produced three times more than aquaculture (see Figure 8).

There were no clearly defined growth targets for capture fisheries in the SNDP. For aquaculture, the target was an increase of 54 percent over the SNDP period. The actual reported achievement by the end of the SNDP was an increase of 113 percent, whereas for capture fisheries this was only around 4 percent.

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Although some management plans existed for capture fisheries, the management of the fish resources was primarily through the annual three-month fish ban from beginning of December to end the of February. This period coincides with the main breeding period for fish.

Enforcement of this ban was a priority for the fisheries sub-sector, but was severely hampered by the lack of funds and delay in the disbursement of funds. Feedback from stakeholders indicated that overfishing was a problem in many fisheries, as was the use of illegal fish gear like mosquito nets. Consequently, overall production of capture fisheries remained constant during SNDP, but it had severely undermined long term sustainability.

Similarly, capture fisheries research also suffered from lack of timely and sufficient funding.

Figure 8: Trend in Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture Production during SNDP/R-SNDP

Source: IAPRI, 2016

Although aquaculture production increased during SNDP, the total production was still very low when compared to the potential for aquaculture production in Zambia. The local demand for fish was much higher than actual production. Due to the low availability, fish consumption steadily decreased during SNDP, from 7.7kg/person/year in 2012 to around 6 kg in 2016, compared to 12 kg/person/year in 1970. Taking that historic consumption level as a guidance, the demand for fish in Zambia could be around 200,000 MT per year, against the actual total production of around 113,000 MT per year during the period under evaluation.

Aquaculture productivity was low at around 2.8 tons/hectare of fish pond, against recommended yields of 6 to 8 tons. This was mainly due to problems with the quality and availability of fingerlings, fish feed, and less than optimal management practices. In addition, there was very low access to credit for improvement and expansion of the aquaculture infrastructure.

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The SNDP envisaged high investment in aqua-parks for fingerling and fish feed production, this mainly just started in 2016 by the end of the Plan period, most aqua-parks were still being developed. In spite of the high potential for aquaculture, the limited funds for fisheries appeared more geared towards capture fisheries.

4.5.4 Agribusiness and trade

One of the main focus areas of the SNDP was to achieve agro-based production. There were, however, no indicators or clear data on agribusiness development during the SNDP to enable assessment of performance in this area. Data on export of agricultural products showed a sharp decline since 2012, see Figure 9.

Figure 9: Net agricultural export during SNDP/R-SNDP

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Figure 10: Contribution of different commodities to agricultural exports during SNDP/R-SNDP

The attempts during the SNDP to promote agribusiness development through farm blocks had not yet been actualised. The farm blocks were meant to spur agricultural production and processing, with government providing the basic infrastructure and private sector setting up the core venture (production and/or processing facilities), with smallholder farmers supplying the core venture.

Progress on development of farm blocks during the SNDP had been slow, due to two main barriers. The first one relates to land availability. Farm blocks require huge tracts of land (100,000 ha or more), which is often in use by subsistence farmers. In the Northern and Western province, it was learned that farm block development was hampered by the slow pace of land alienation.

The second problem was the low private sector interest in farm blocks. While government made progress on providing basic infrastructure such as roads, electricity and dams in several farm blocks, the process of contracting private sector partners for the core ventures was not successful. As a result, only one core venture was partly operational (in Luswishi farm block ) by 2016

In Western Province, a major drive was undertaken to revitalise the Cashew industry. Government, through the CEEC made investment in an old Cashew factory in Mongu, which is now partly operational under a PPP arrangement.

Millions of Cashew trees have been planted, but will only start producing in the coming years. The international Cashew market is also particularly difficult to penetrate, so it will require excellent management Picture 2 - Cashew revenues in the old days (board in and marketing for the programme to be the Cashew factory in Mongu (amounts on the right successful. are in USD

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4.5.5 Institutional aspects

An important institutional change during SNDP was the creation of a separate Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock in September 2015. With the crop sub-sector having been dominant in the combined ministry, the separation was done to ensure that livestock and fisheries received greater attention. Based on the change in funding between 2015 and 2016 for fisheries and livestock, this appeared to have been achieved: In 2016, the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock received about 23 percent of the total agriculture budget compared to 0.03 percent in 2015, when the fisheries and livestock sub- sector was combined with crop production.

A disadvantage of this separation, as pointed out by stakeholders related to compromised efficiency at field level as extension staff now belonged to different ministries. Coordination and joint planning of extension activities became more difficult.

The positive aspect was that the number of extension staff went up with many recruited for camps in the new districts. Feedback from farmers on the quality of extension services was mixed. In some provinces, beneficiaries complained that the extension staff urged farmers to diversify but didn’t provide the necessary support in terms of production techniques, market information, and development of business plans.

The field visit to Mungwi district revealed that all positions for agricultural extension staff were filled during the SNDP, but that the ratio of extension staff to farmers was still far from the ideal which is; 1 extension officer to 200 farmers. In Western province, around 75 percent of agricultural staff positions were filled. However, lack of decent facilities at camps meant that some staff were staying in nearby towns rather than in the camps.

Where availability for key resources for extension staff, such as motorbikes and funds for fuel, had improved, this was often through projects supported by Cooperating Partners. The International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) financed “Small Productivity Promotion Programme was mostly implemented in the in the northern part of the country while the European Union funded “Scaling up Conservation Project” had a presence in other parts of the country, except the northern parts. There are high costs associated with operating an effective extension network across a country as vast as Zambia and requires investment in various aspects (including; human capital, equipment and communication technology).

4.5.6 Sectoral Budget

Overall, the agricultural sector had relatively high funds disbursements compared to many other sectors during the SNDP. The budget continued to be dominated by the FISP/E-voucher Programme and Food Reserve Agency (FRA), which received more funds than budgeted, leading to a disbursement rate of more than 100 percent. This is illustrated in figure 11. It also shows how far Zambia has complied with the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development (CAADP) commitment of spending at least 10 percent of the national budget on agriculture. During the review period, this target was only achieved in 2011 and 2014, based on additional funding, above the budget allocation, provided for FISP and FRA.

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The dominance of the FISP and FRA programmes persisted during the SNDP/R-SNDP as is clearly illustrated in the budget allocations and disbursements for 2016 in table 19. The FISP/E-voucher and FRA programmes accounted for 83 percent of total disbursed funds, 6.9 percent was allocated to personal emoluments, while only 10 percent of the total funds (including donor funds) was available for all other programmes such as irrigation development, aquaculture development, livestock development and establishment of farm blocks.

Figure 11: Budgets and Disbursements in the Agricultural Sector 2003 to 2016 as Percent of Overall Government Budget

Source: IAPRI, 2016

Table 19 - Budgets and disbursements within the agricultural sector in 2016 Program Budget Programme Re- Approved Budget (K Total Releases (K Program As % Of Approved leases as % Of Total Million) Million) Budget Releases Conventional FISP 755 31,7% 1.155 34,2% E-Voucher 248 10,4% 741 21,9% Food Reserves 750 31,4% 910 26,9% Personal Emoluments 238 9,9% 234 6,9% Donor 121 5,0% 213 6,3% Other Programmes 270 11,3% 124 3,7% Total 2.382 100,0% 3.377 100,0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, 2016

4.5.7 Agro-related Impact

Overall, the impact of the agricultural sector on economic growth was not as anticipated. The expected increase in agriculture sector contribution to GDP was not achieved as this indicator faced a downward trend. Overall impact of the agricultural programmes on smallholder farmers supported during SNDP/R-SNDP was very limited and not much change in incomes or livelihoods was reported by farmers interviewed during the evaluation.

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The main exception was in areas where new infrastructure like roads, mobile phone towers and irrigation schemes had been built. There was positive impact through lower prices for agricultural inputs and higher prices for produce, due to better access to markets and to market information. However, these impacts were very localised and needed to be experienced widely across the country to have significant impact at a national scale.

The E-voucher system had some positive impact on private sector development. It strengthened the role of agro-dealers in providing agricultural inputs, since farmers were able to buy the inputs from agro dealers rather waiting for the government to supplying the inputs. The flexibility of the system also allowed livestock owners to use the vouchers to buy vaccinations, making them less dependent on government vaccination schemes (which during SNDP were largely funded by CPs).

The E-voucher system had some administrative challenges associated with delays in activation of E-Voucher cards due to long verification processes by financial institutions and the Ministry of Agriculture.. This had a spiral effect of low yields. This was cited as a challenge by beneficiaries, especially those engaged in crop farming who in some instances, ended up using their low producing local/recycled seeds and could not apply inputs like fertilizer at the right time.

4.5.8 Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions:

Relevance: • The agricultural sector remains the dominant sector in Zambia’s rural areas and is key for rural development. The focus on crop diversification and productivity increase in SNDP was very relevant for poverty reduction. So was the planned focus on aquaculture and livestock diversification, both of which can count on a strong market in urban areas. Given Zambia’s abundant water resources, irrigation and aquaculture have huge development potential. • The KPIs defined for the sector were all relevant, although it is recommended to separate fisheries indicators from livestock indicators.

Effectiveness: • The introduction of E-vouchers had not yet contributed to crop diversification and will in future only do so if markets for crops other than maize will be promoted. Irrigation development had only happened on a small scale, with only a few thousand hectares of smallholder schemes added during SNDP/R-SNDP. In how far these schemes are effectively utilised could not be assessed (the Ministry does not report on disaggregated data for rain-fed versus irrigated crops).

• The livestock sector had seen steady growth during SNDP, serving an increasing (and increasingly urban) population with a strong demand for beef, pork, goat meat and poultry. Disease control had been largely effective during the SNDP, but highly dependent on funding from CPs.

• Effective fisheries management had been severely hampered by lack of funds for enforcement of the annual fish ban. Aquaculture production had marginally increased, compared to demand, and productivity levels were still the potential yield.

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Efficiency: • The FISP and FRA programmes continued to play a dominant role in the crop sector. More than 80 percent of the agricultural funding went to the two programmes, leaving very little resources for investment in other programmes. Late supply of FISP inputs and delays in E-voucher activation strongly reduced the efficiency of the programmes. • Considerable delays were experienced in major programmes associated with infrastructure development such as the irrigation, aqua-parks, livestock infrastructure development and farm blocks. Outputs under these programmes remained far below expectations.

Impact: • No measurable positive impact on overall economic growth was recorded. • Localised positive impact on poverty reduction could have happened through improved infrastructure, which helped reduce farm input prices and increased market access and competitiveness.

Sustainability: • For irrigation schemes, sustainability is very much dependent on effective Operations & Management structures and mechanisms. This had proven to be a challenge in smallholder schemes in particular. • With one of the main vaccination support programmes (the WB funded Livestock Development and Animal Health) scheduled for closure in mid-2018, there is a real risk that the gains achieved during SNDP in livestock disease control will be lost if public funds are not allocated to sustain the disease control efforts. E-vouchers can play an important role here as livestock farmers will be able to use the subsidy to buy vaccinations, a trend that has already started.

Recommendations:

a) The dominant role of FISP/E-vouchers and FRA need to gradually be reduced, and funds should instead be used to promote access to markets, incentivise agro-processing, while unlocking the irrigation potential and promoting climate smart agriculture. b) Crop diversification needs to be supported by strengthening the demand side. This requires the improvement of an enabling environment that promotes processing and increase export potential of a diversified range of crops, such as tax reforms, targeted credit lines and export facilitation, as well as a reduction of government interventions in the maize market through FRA. c) Fisheries: The local market for fish is very strong and expansion of aquaculture should be strongly supported to unlock its potential as a major driver of growth in the agricultural sector. At the same time, the management of capture fisheries needs to be strengthened, starting with timely and sufficient funding to enforce the annual fish ban and discouragement of unsustainable fishing practices such as use of use of illegal fishing gear like mosquito nets. By promoting aquaculture, near overfished capture fisheries, synergies between the two approaches can be created. d) Irrigation should become a key development area in the coming years, whereby it will be important to not only focus on irrigation infrastructure development, but also on developing and supporting effective management models for small and medium size schemes that target smallholder farmers, as well as building the necessary technical, management and marketing skills.

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e) Farm blocks: It is recommended to focus the coming years on the development of one or two farm blocks as “pilots”. If and when these are successfully developed, the lessons learnt will then help in more rapid expansion of best practices to other farm blocks. f) Monitoring in the sector needs to be improved to ensure that key data are available for identification and planning of main interventions. Indicators on production and productivity in the crop sector should be more disaggregated (like commercial farmers vs. smallholder farmers, rain-fed vs. irrigated crops, gender-disaggregation). Agreed CAADP commitments, as measured through indicators such as percent of national budget for agriculture (10percent target) and annual growth of the agricultural sector (6percent target) should be included in the KPIs for the sector.

4.6 Lands and Natural Resources

Lands and natural resources were not explicitly mentioned in the SNDP. As a result, no KPIs were defined. Yet, lands and natural resources are vital resources for sustainable long term socio- economic development and for supporting development of other sectors like infrastructure (lands) and industry (timber).

In the SNDP progress reports, some information was provided on forestry activities in the provinces, and only in 2016 when a detailed sector and provincial progress report dedicated a section to lands and natural resources. The KPIs listed and assessed in the 2016 progress report are:

Lands:

1. Certificates of titles issued 2. Ground rent collected 3. Land parcels made available 4. Letters of offer issued

Natural Resources:

1. Number of jobs created 2. Kg of seeds collected 3. Seedlings raised 4. Hectares of plantation planted

The list from lands indicates that the focus was squarely on land administration issues with no references to sustainable land management aspect. The natural resources KPIs only consider forestry. Interestingly, the main challenge in the forestry sector, namely rapid deforestation, is not covered in the KPIs. Forestry aspects were mentioned under provincial objectives, but without any elaboration of strategies and without any indicators to measure performance.

This trend is also visible in the 7NDP where Forestry is mentioned in the Plan as an economic driver through development of forest-based industries, but the issue of natural resources management to address the high deforestation levels is not mentioned. There is, however, a KPI on deforestation included under the macro-economic indicators, but without any targets.

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4.6.1 Lands Administration

The work of the Department of Lands was strongly influenced during the SNDP by the creation of multiple new districts initiated by the new PF government that came into power after the 2011 elections. It meant that resources and activities during the SNDP were focused on land development in these new districts, which includes land use planning, surveying, and basic service provision through the Land Development Fund.

The need to focus on the new districts contributed to the fact that other planned programmes experienced slow progress due to limited funding and inadequate human resources. The land audit was a crucial preparatory step for the proposed National Land Titling Programme, which had as objectives to guarantee security of tenure, reduce displacements, promote internal security and increase the ground rent revenue base. At the time of conception of this Programme in 2014 only about 142,000 title deeds were registered (with around 11,500 titles added during SNDP) leaving almost 80 percent of the land not registered.

The main progress for improved land administration, and also a necessary step towards achieving the objectives of the National Land Titling Programme, was made in the e-Government sector, namely through the development and operationalisation of the Zambia Integrated Land Management Information System (ZILMIS) which houses all leasehold title records in a spatial database.

The lands sector is crucial in many other sectors, such as infrastructure development. Several stakeholders of other sectors have indicated that their work was slowed down due to delays in land allocation. It indicates that cross-sector coordination is crucial to minimise such delays. The lack of a functional Sector Advisory Group during much of SNDP was mentioned as one of the main challenges in this respect. While this is improved under the 7th NDP through the cluster approach, it is also felt that more coordination at operational level is needed.

Consultations for a new National Land Policy started during the SNDP period. While the need for a new land policy is generally recognised, it was not explicitly incorporated in either the original or the revised SNDP. Consultations for the development of the new policy started in 2016 and are continuing to this day.

4.6.2 Natural Resource Analysis

Within the context of the SNDP, natural resources were largely equated with forests, although Zambia has other natural resources of national and international importance, such as the expansive Kafue and Bangweulu wetlands.

Although no KPIs for natural resources are included in the R-SNDP, several were in fact proposed by the Department of Forestry including:

• Increase the hectares of gazette forest areas; • Annual Rate of Deforestation (ha); • Timber contribution to manufacturing (m3).

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These are all very relevant KPIs, although the list is still missing indicators on for example charcoal regulation, on wetlands conservation and on CO2 sequestration as part of Zambia’s commitment for Intended National Determined Contribution (INDC).

Rather than an increase in hectares of gazetted forest areas during SNDP, as one of the KPIs proposed, Zambia saw a trend during SNDP of partial or complete de-gazetting of national forests, usually for residential development and farm plots (and in one case, Ndola, for development of a new airport).

With regard to deforestation rate, there are signs that it increased during SNDP rather than decreased. In Western Province this was confirmed by stakeholders interviewed, who indicated that the new Mongu – Sesheke tar road had led to a strong increase in commercial logging, with doubts expressed about the sustainability and legality of these logging efforts.

Deforestation has also increased due to increased encroachment of forest reserves, especially along new roads and near towns.

The load shedding experienced during 2015 and 2016 had a direct negative impact on forest resources, with the demand for charcoal skyrocketing, leading to increased forest degradation and deforestation. While charcoal production is an important rural income earner, the fact that the production was largely unregulated leads to widespread unsustainable practices.

Finally, deforestation continued at a fast rate because productivity in the agricultural sector remained largely stagnant during the SNDP. This meant that production increases could only be achieved through expansion of agricultural land, primarily through conversion of forests and woodlands.

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Although some afforestation activities were undertaken, the areas planted were not significant compared to the deforestation rate. In 2016 for example, 438 ha were planted (against a target of 2,000 ha) through efforts from the Department of Forestry, while the estimated deforestation rates were between 150,000 and 300,000 ha per year.

The limited attention to natural resources conservation by the SNDP are reflected in budget allocations, and even more so in fund releases. For 2016, the budget for agroforestry and afforestation was less than ZMW 300,000 (against ZMW 28 million for land audit and the same amount for the Land Development Fund). Of this budget, allocation 17% was released. This implies that capacity for regulating the forest sector was extremely limited, making it impossible to effectively curtail illegal logging, wide-scale unsustainable charcoal production and further encroachment of forest reserves. The limited funding for forestry was clearly illustrated during the field visit to Kalabo district. According to the data provided, the forestry department in the district only received ZMW 10,000 for activities during the whole duration of the SNDP.

One important success during the SNDP was the adoption of a new Forestry Policy and Forestry Act, which allows for decentralised (community-level) forest management and hence will strengthen the legal framework for timber export and concession licence regulation .

4.6.3 Natural Resource Related Impact

The contribution of the forestry sector to national GDP has been estimated at around 4.7 percent of GDP (UNEP, 2015). Apart from the direct value of timber and non-timber forest products, this also includes estimated values associated with carbon sequestration, protection against soil erosion, and nature tourism. After considering the multiplier effects, the contribution goes up to 6.3 percent.

The local impact of charcoal production on rural livelihoods was considerable, with typical earnings up to several hundred ZMW per month, and with some charcoal producers reporting earnings up to ZMW 4,000 per month during the load shedding period (IAPRI, 2016).

The continuing deforestation undermines the long term role of forest resources in maintaining ecosystem services (like acting as source of clean water supply, protecting against soil degradation, reducing chances of flooding, and mitigating climate change impact) that are crucial for both urban and rural livelihoods. Dwindling forest resources also means that their contribution to GDP will decrease.

The solution lies not in prohibiting activities like logging and charcoal production, but in strengthening the regulatory environment to ensure such activities are done in a sustainable manner. The new policy and Act provide a strong legal framework, but their effective application requires much higher funding levels for the forestry sector, as well as cross-sector coordination with for example the roads sector and Zambia Environmental Management Authority (ZEMA). This would ensure joint coordination and that new roads don’t lead to unchecked deforestation. Ensuring sustainable use of existing forest resources is a far more effective approach than the approach prioritised during SNDP, which focused on afforestation efforts that in reality only compensated a tiny fraction of the forest resources that annually disappeared through deforestation.

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4.6.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Lands & Natural Resources

Conclusions:

Relevance: • Lands is an important sector for almost all other sectors depend on it. • The SNDP’s focus on land administration needed to be complemented by sustainable land management interventions. • Sustainable management of natural resources is vital for long term sustainable development and poverty reduction in line with Vision 2030. This aspect received very limited attention in the SNDP. • No KPIs for these sectors were included in the R-SNDP. The KPIs listed in the 2016 SNDP Annual Progress Report were too limited: o For land the only focus is on land administration. There is urgent need for inclusion of indicators to track progress on land alienation and sustainable land management. o The forest KPIs did not make reference to the main forestry issue in Zambia: the high level of deforestation. This require attention in subsequent national development plans.

Effectiveness: • The agencies in the lands sector did not work effectively on the SNDP priorities, due to the fact that it focused more on land development in the new districts to the exclusion of land alienation and sustainable land management. • Due largely to very limited resources, the Department of Forestry was ineffective in controlling deforestation and related (often unregulated) logging and charcoal production and encroachment. Instead of increasing the area of protected forests, this decreased due to de-gazetting of a number of national forest reserves. • Forestry managed to improve the legal framework with a new forest policy and Act. These will however only be effective if the sector receives substantial resources for their implementation and enforcement.

Efficiency: • Zambia’s forest resources are being depleted at an unsustainable rate and this has to be addressed through a comprehensive approach including afforestation, community management of forests and streamlined harvesting of timber.

Impact: • The long term role of forest resources in maintaining ecosystem services, that are vital for sustainable livelihoods and economic growth, was severely undermined due to the continuing large scale deforestation. • Charcoal production was a locally important rural income earner.

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Recommendations:

a) There is need to increase the KPIs for the sector to include important aspects such as land alienation and deforestation. b) There is need to increase resource allocation to natural resources /forestry management, based on the fact that forestry contributes up to 6.3% to national GDP. c) Cross-sector collaboration needs to be strengthened to ensure that the negative impacts of infrastructure development (roads in particular) and human settlements on forests and other natural resources is minimised.

4.7 Tourism

In the R-SNDP section on growth areas, tourism was one of such sectors with the focus on increasing the tourist arrivals and revenues. Proposed key focus areas included: Infrastructure development especially in the Northern Circuit and the Lower Zambezi; diversification and expansion of tourism products in respect of geographical comparative advantage; enhancing tourism marketing; human resource development; improving the quality of service provision and promoting sustainable tourism developments.

Although recognised as a growth sector, no dedicated section on tourism was included in the R- SNDP, which also meant that no KPIs were defined to measure progress on the growth targets. The earlier version of the SNDP included a number of KPIs for the sector, and these formed a basis for the assessment of sector performance:

1. International tourist arrivals 2. Annual direct tourism earnings 3. Employment levels 4. Bed space in the tourism industry 5. Occupancy rate 6. Length of stay for tourists

4.7.1 Tourist trends

The SNDP set a target of 1,250,000 tourist arrivals in 2016. This was not achieved, with 2016 registering a total of 956,332 international tourists . The majority of international visitors did not come to Zambia for leisure tourism, but for business, as indicated in figure 14. The actual number of leisure tourists largely remained constant during the SNDP period. See figure 12.

The 2016 target for earnings from the tourism sector was USD 449 million. This was achieved in 2015, with earnings of over USD 450 million (based on an exchange rate of 1 USD: 10 ZMW), but then dipped slightly under this target again in 2016. These earnings were predominantly private sector revenues deriving from accommodating tourists, which accounted for around 90percent of all earnings in the sector (See Figure 12).

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Figure 12: Main tourism trends during SNDP

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Arts / Zambia Tourism Agency, 2016

The available accommodation in terms of bed spaces continued to increase during the 2012 to 2015 period, from 51,662 in 2012 to 75,253 in 2015, with occupancy rates increasing in the same period, from 54 percent to 69.8 percent.

The length of stay during the SNDP/R-SNDP oscillated between 4.5 and 6 days.

Although R-SNDP focused on the development of the Northern Circuit and of Lower Zambezi as tourist attractions, there are no signs that this made a significant impact. Of the National Parks, the South Luangwa National Park was by far the most visited, accounting for around 50% of all park visits, while visits to Lower Zambezi remained stagnant between 2013 and 2016 at around 9,000 visitors per year, or 9% of all park visits. Victoria Falls remained the main tourist attraction in the country, with annual visitor numbers remaining constant around the 150,000 mark.

4.7.2 Tourism sector analysis

While the KPIs for in the tourism sector registered some growth, the country still lagged behind neighbouring countries such as Botswana and Zimbabwe. In 2015 for example, tourist arrivals in Botswana totalled around 2.5 million, while Zambia registered around 932,000. Zimbabwe recorded over 2 million arrivals in that same year, in spite of the economic challenges faced by the neighbouring country.

Data from the World Travel and Tourism Council showed that the amounts that leisure tourists spent in Zambia in the SNDP period were consistently considerably lower than in Botswana and Zimbabwe. Conversely, business travellers spent more in Zambia than in the other two countries (See Figure 14).

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Figure 13: Spending by leisure tourists (left) and business tourists (right) in Zambia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe

Source: World Travel and Tourism Council statistics

Preliminary results of a study undertaken for the Global Environment Facility list some causes for the failure to increase the leisure tourism industry in Zambia:

1. A low marketing budget – around USD 2 million in 2016, compared to USD 8 million in a country like Botswana. 2. Zambia is a relatively expensive destination, due to high tax burdens. 3. Insufficient resources for effective protection of game management areas, including for upgrading and maintenance of tourism infrastructure. 4. Inadequate tourism service industry training centres and skills. 5. The lack of direct air flights to Zambia from destinations outside Africa.

Private sector tourism companies also cited burdensome bureaucracy, with too many license requirements, although the Zambia Tourism Agency (ZTA) indicated that the licensing system had been simplified.

On the infrastructure side, some progress was made during the SDNP period, with regard to road accessibility of some national parks. One example is the road from Mongu to Kalabo that has fundamentally improved access to Liuwa National Park. Although this was not the main objective for the construction of the road, it contributed to an increase of tourist numbers. However, many key tourism sites continued to have poor accessibility.

The tourism ministry previously had a representative on the board of the Road Development Agency, but not anymore. This implied that tourism roads development was no longer high on the agenda when decisions were taken with regard to construction and upgrading of major roads. Further, inadequate cross-sector coordination with other sectors such as ICT meant that tourism sites were not explicitly prioritised for certain services e.g. mobile phone coverage or electricity access.

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On the institutional side, tourism was moved from one ministry to another during the SNDP period. The funding trend during SNDP for the tourism sector did not reflect the fact that it was considered as a key growth area, since funding amounts declined from around ZMW 80 million in 2013 to around ZMW 20 million in 2016. During the SNDP period, the Zambian Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) was abolished and the wildlife and national parks functions re-integrated into the Ministry of Tourism as a Department of Wildlife and National Parks. While in principle a positive development due to the insolvency problems that ZAWA faced at the time, it led to a decrease in funds available for wildlife and parks management.

Although not sufficient to have a significant impact on tourist numbers, some marketing success was achieved during the SNDP. This included the successful organisation and hosting of the United Nations-World Tourism Organisation (UN-WTO) meeting in Livingstone, in 2013 and the successful piloting of a uni-visa that allows access to both Zimbabwe and Zambia in the KaZa Trans Frontier Conservation Area in the south west of the country (around the Victoria Falls).

Another positive development under Arts & Culture was the organisation of the Pamodzi Cultural Carnival, which was held for the first time in 2015 and has become an annual event. It showcases the rich cultural heritage of Zambia and contributes to growing the domestic tourism industry.

4.7.3 Impact

The tourism industry provided employment to a considerable number of people. The number of reported jobs jumped to around 57,000 2013 from around 44,000 in 2012 and, and thereafter remained more or less constant. Locally, employment in the tourism sector can be very important. Stakeholders in Western Province for example indicated that tourism was the highest formal private employment sector in the province. Similarly, in the Mfuwe area bordering South Luangwa National Park, an estimated 61% of all local jobs are in tourism (according to the earlier referenced study for the Global Environmental Facility).

The tourism industry also contributed to rural income in Game Management Areas through hunting fees, part of which are disbursed to communities living in game management areas. In 2016, the Ministry of Tourism reported disbursements amounting to ZMK 63,798,089 to Community Resource Boards.

In terms of contribution to GDP, the tourism sector contributed 2.4 percent in 2012 and 3.4 percent in 2016, according to WTTC statistics.

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4.7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Tourism

Conclusions:

Relevance: • Relevance of tourism as a growth area was obvious and the objectives and strategies in the SNDP pointed to the potential the sector holds particularly for rural development in and around tourist sites.

Effectiveness: • The tourism sector saw moderate growth over the SNDP period. The main contributor to the sector is business tourism, accounting for well over 50% of all international visitors to Zambia. • The leisure tourism potential of Zambia was not really unlocked during SNDP. The country’s tourism sector is not developed to the level of competing effectively with neighbouring countries like Botswana and Zimbabwe.

Efficiency: • Efficiency was seriously undermined by a number of institutional challenges that included the initial structural changes of parent ministry, very low budgets, lack of sector-wide strategic plan and the need to re-integrate wildlife and national parks services into the Ministerial functions.

Impact: • The sector increased its contribution to national GDP to 3.4 percent. • Tourism is locally a very important economic factor and a leading employment provider in and near major tourist attractions like Victoria Falls and South Luangwa National Park.

Sustainability: • The continued growth of business tourism in particular is highly dependent on the overall political and business climate in Zambia. • With wildlife and national parks now re-integrated in the Ministry, available funds for parks management (including infrastructure upgrade and maintenance as well as anti-poaching) are now less than before. This may negatively affect wildlife numbers as well as the attractiveness and accessibility of the parks.

Recommendations:

a) The sector should re-assess its priorities in terms of what tourist sites to focus on, through a thorough market potential study and cost-benefit analysis. This should answer questions such as: what is the relative potential of the Northern Circuit versus Kafue National Park? b) Competitiveness should be increased by reducing red tape for private sector and increasing the marketing budget. c) Revenues should be increased by ensuring better compliance of the private tourism sector. d) Tourism should actively engage with other sectors like roads, energy and ICT to ensure good accessibility and phone coverage at major tourist site; National Parks in particular.

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4.8 Health

4.8.1 A profile of the health sector

The quest for health advancement is a universally recognized right transcending all boundaries. The health sector not only provides inputs, but is also a key determinant of quality of other inputs (education and employment) for human development. The Vision of health sector during the SNDP period was to achieve “Equitable access to quality healthcare for all by 2030”. The goal was “To improve health status of people in Zambia in order to contribute towards socio-economic development by 2016”. Specific objectives were to:

• Provide cost-effective health services and improve linkages among the levels; • Improve availability and distribution of qualified health workers in the country; • Ensure availability and access to essential drugs and medical supplies; • Provide infrastructure, ensure availability of adequate, appropriate and well-maintained medical equipment and accessories; • Promote access to quality health care services through alternative ways of health care financing; and • Enhance market access and promotion of FDI for health services.

The Ministry of Health (MoH) Mid-Term Review Report of 2015 showed that Zambia’s epidemiological profile was characterized by high prevalence and impact of preventable and treatable communicable diseases, particularly malaria, HIV and AIDs, Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs) and Tuberculosis (TB).

Table 20 shows the top causes of mortality in health institutions during the SNDP.

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Table 20 - Top ten causes of Mortality in Health institutions over a period of 5 years for all ages 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Malaria 344 Malaria 339 Respiratory 382 Malaria 394 Respiratory 388 Infection: Infection: non- non- pneumonia pneumonia Respiratory 309 Respiratory 310 Malaria 370 Respiratory 376 Malaria 316 Infection-non Infection-non Infection: Pneumonia Pneumonia non- pneumonia Diarrhoea non- 86 Diarrhoea 85 Diarrhoea 96 Diarrhoea 97 Diarrhoea 97 bloody non-bloody (non-bloody) (non-bloody) (non-bloody) Muscular 54 Muscular 62 Muscular 66 Muscular 67 Muscular 67 Skeletal & Skeletal & skeletal and skeletal and skeletal and Connective Connective connective connective connective Tissue non Tissue non tissue (not tissue (not tissue (not Trauma Trauma trauma) trauma) trauma) Trauma 38 Trauma 39 Digestive 45 Digestive 46 Digestive 46 other Injuries other Injuries system: (not system: (not system: (not wounds wounds infectious) infectious) infectious) Digestive 37 Digestive 39 Trauma: 39 Trauma: 40 Trauma: 38 system non- system non- Other Other Other Injuries, infectious infectious Injuries, Injuries, wounds wounds wounds Respiratory 36 Respiratory 33 Respiratory 36 Respiratory 32 Respiratory 30 infection- infection- Infection: Infection: Infection: Pneumonia Pneumonia pneumonia pneumonia pneumonia Eye disease 27 Eye disease 26 Skin 26 Skin 26 Sickle Cell 30 Infectious Infectious Diseases (not Diseases (not Anaemia infectious) infectious) Skin diseases 23 Skin diseases 25 Eye diseases 26 Eye diseases 25 Dental Carries 24 non-infectious non- (infectious) (infectious) infectious Dental Carries 22 Dental 24 Dental 25 Dental 25 Skin 24 Carries Carries Carries Diseases (not infectious) Source: MoH Medium Term Review 2015.

Hospital Referral Services

The health system in Zambia follows a hierarchical organizational setup. However, it was observed that various levels of health care delivery system hardly work in unison. According to Basic Package of Care (BPC), top ten diseases/health conditions are supposed to be treated at district level facilities. Only complicated cases are expected to reach the second and third levels of care. While the BPC is clear about what conditions should be presented at which level of health system, inappropriate referrals to hospitals have persisted. To rationalize access to hospitals, by-pass user fees were charged for non-referred cases and hospitals were right-sized (mostly through upgrading, so that lower level hospitals were able to deal with most cases, without recourse to making referrals). This led to construction of health facilities and hospitals across the country. In Lusaka, health centres were converted into mini-hospitals, with a view to reducing referral pressures on the University Teaching Hospital (UTH). In addition, a general hospital was also established. Owing to obsolete equipment in most of health facilities, the Ministry of Health was one of the beneficiaries of the Euro bond which was used to procure medical equipment for hospitals.

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Drugs and Logistics system

The Drugs and Logistics sub-sector is important for ensuring good quality health care. To this end, the sub-sector has undergone legislative and policy change. During the SNDP period, the Medicines and Allied Substances Act no.3 of 2013, the National Medicines Policy, and the Public Health Act were passed to improve policy and regulatory framework of the pharmaceutical sub-sector. The Medicines and Allied Substances Act provided for coordination, selection, forecasting and quantification, procurement, storage and distribution, rational use, quality control and regulation of medicines and medical supplies. Further, the National Supply Chain (NSC) strategy aimed at strengthening forecasting and quantification, procurement, coordination and distribution of medicines and medical supplies was developed.

During SNDP period, the drug procurement function was moved from Ministry of Health to Medical Stores Limited (MSL). The MSL additional supply chain responsibilities included distribution of health commodities to all hospitals and health centres, down to last mile, procurement of essential medicines and medical supplies; and coordination of commodity quantification activities. With increased volumes of orders, distribution of drugs and medical supplies was carried out through establishment of regional hubs in provinces. During SNDP/RSNDP period, four regional hubs were established in Mongu, Choma, Chipata and Luanshya.

While noting achievements recorded in the sub-sector, there were some challenges such as weak coordination mechanisms and accountability in supply chain management; Inadequate quality management system for data in the supply chain; insufficient integration of logistics information system; limited scale of implementation of electronic logistics management information system; limited storage and distribution capacity at central, province, district and health facility levels; ineffective Medicines and Therapeutic Committees and lack of strong local pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.

In terms of financing, Government and Cooperating Partners increased the drug budget support by more than 100 percent during SNDP period; this resulted in a 78 percent availability of essential medicines and medical supplies in the public sector (Figure 14). The predominance of external source of finance for pharmaceuticals was identified as a concern that needed to be addressed urgently. In that respect, implementation of Social Health Insurance was given priority during the SNDP period. The dominance of external financiers of pharmaceuticals was compounded by an underdeveloped local pharmaceutical manufacturing base, leading to over reliance on imports and consequent lengthy delivery times. A strategy for enhancing local pharmaceutical capacities is imperative as figure 14 illustrates.

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Figure 14: 2012-2014 National medicines budget

Source: 2015 Ministry of health annual report

Infrastructure Development and Medical Equipment

During the SNDP period, Government embarked on a health facility upgrading programme. Deliberate focus was placed on renovating hospitals, as these are also practising bases for medical training institutions. It was further envisaged that upgrading of hospitals would lead to a reduction in number of patients referred for specialised care abroad. Specific interventions included construction of thirty-five district hospitals, completion of the Cancer Diseases Hospital and construction of the Adult Male Specialised Hospital. Other interventions included the modernization of 2nd and 3rd level hospitals through improvement of emergency and specialized units such as Renal, Cardiac, Catheterization Laboratory, Intensive Care, and Radiotherapy. These activities were implemented, in part with proceeds from the Eurobond funds.

During this period, transport limitations continued, constraining delivery of health services for instance, only half of 105 districts had road worthy utility vehicles. Basic life support ambulances were unevenly distributed across provinces and was especially severe for rural based health facilities resulting in 30% of health centres using specialised motor bikes for service delivery; while some remote health centres used tricycles and ox-carts.

4.8.2 Primary health care

Zambia’s Health system has over the years been skewed towards curative services at the expense of health promotion and disease prevention. Consequently, most approaches for health delivery were based on medical models which emphasized drugs, resulting in medicalization of the health sector.

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Health promotion was inadequately funded, and the sector did not develop a Social and Behaviour Change Communication Strategy.

In order to address these shortcomings deliberate efforts were made to develop preventive focus of Primary Health Care (PHC), which refers to "essential health care" that is based on scientifically sound and socially acceptable methods and technologies which make universal health care accessible to all individuals and families in a community. PHC is achieved through full community participation at a cost that both the community and country at large can afford in the spirit of self-reliance and self-determination. It is an approach to health beyond traditional health care system that focuses on equitable distribution of health services to achieve improved health outcomes. A continuing effort is required to secure meaningful community participation in planning, design, implementation, as well as monitoring and evaluation of health service delivery beyond reliance on local resources such as manpower, money and materials.

During SNDP period, Primary Health Care services were provided through outreach Posts, Health Posts, Health Centres and District Hospitals. These were linked to communities through Health Centres and Neighbourhood Health Committees (NHC). During the SNDP period, Government embarked on a massive health infrastructure development programme, aimed at improving equitable distribution of primary health care. This was, however, limited by non-availability of a community health strategy that clearly defines community health. To this end, two training schools for Community Health Assistants (CHAs) were established in Ndola and Chibombo districts. By 2016 1,577 CHAs had graduated from the training schools against a target of 5,000.

Human Resource Development and Management

A review of human resource performance showed that significant achievements were made during the period under review, although deficits remained high as indicated in Figure 15 and Table 22 below which show staffing levels at the beginning and end of the SNDP period. Data shows that the only staffing category for which deficit was narrowed most was administration. Professional categories which recorded the widest gap between 2011 and 2016 were physiotherapists and pharmacists, most likely a reflection of a growing private health sector that is attracting such professionals. To address these deficits, Government developed the 2013-2016 National Training Operational Plan (NTOP) and National Human Resources for Health Strategic Plan 2011 – 2015.

In 2011, the available number of health workers in the sector was estimated at18, 895 (against the required establishment of 44,763, resulting in a deficit of 58 percent). In 2016, the available number of health workers was estimated at 42,630 (against the required establishment of 63, 057 resulting in a deficit of 32 percent). The deficits were particularly pronounced in rural areas. In a bid to attract and retain staff in the sector, the ministry implemented a Health Workers Retention Scheme. However, reviews of the scheme indicated that it was unsustainable, principally on account of budgetary constraints and as a result, the ministry abolished the scheme with effect from 1st September 2013.

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Figure 15 - Human Resource Development deficits by category, 2011 and 2016

Source: MoH 2016 Annual review

Table 21 – Human Resource Department staffing establishment and gaps, 2011 and 2016 2011 2016 ESTABLISHMENT ANALYSIS ESTABLISHMENT ANALYSIS CATEGORY Approved Actual Approved Actual Gap % Gap Percent Sector Est Staff Sector Est Staff Admin 6,115 1,683 4,432 72.5 22,353 19,254 3,099 14 Clinical officer 4,813 1,509 3,304 68.6 4,883 1,814 3,069 63 Dental 865 278 587 67.9 908 312 596 66 Doctor 2,939 1,076 1,863 63.4 3,119 1,514 1,605 51 Environmental 2,063 1,367 696 33.7 2,319 1,796 523 23 Lab 2,023 713 1,310 64.8 2,110 921 1,189 56 Midwife 6,106 2,753 3,353 54.9 6,322 3,141 3,181 50 Nurses 17,497 7,996 9,501 54.3 18,484 11,666 6,818 37 Nutrition 330 170 160 48.5 350 202 148 42 Pharmacy 1,108 777 331 29.9 1,219 1,159 60 5 Physiotherapy 421 297 124 29.5 448 432 16 4 Radiography 483 276 207 42.9 542 419 123 23 TOTALS 44,763 18,895 25,868 58 63,057 42,630 20,427 32 Source: MoH 2016 Annual review

In scaling-up production of health workers, new training institutions (public and private) were opened, which contributed to an increase in number of health workers. Strategies to augment number of health workers included new training programs for Community Health Assistants, Combined Registered Nurse Midwifery, Bachelor of Dental Surgery, Direct Entry Midwifery, Clinical Instructor, HIV Nurse Practitioner, critical care, paediatrics and Master of Medicine, and Bachelor of Clinical Sciences. Despite increased outputs from public training institutions and involvement of private training institutions, the deficit persisted. There is limited physical space in most training

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institutions to employ teaching and other support staff to allow for increased enrolments. Further, infrastructure, equipment and other training requisites need further expansion in order to improve the quality of training. There is also need to strengthen the monitoring of training of health workers by regulatory bodies in order to enhance quality of training.

The Government expanded the staff establishment by approving new structures and providing for net recruitments on an annual basis. However, net recruitment budget allocations were not adequate to absorb all health workers. Further, the ministry rolled out Performance Management Systems at Provincial level on a ‘training of trainers’ basis and training of staff was conducted in most facilities.

Immunization

There was a steady rise in the rate of fully immunized children aged less than one year, from 69 percent in 2010 to 86 percent in 2015, against R-SNDP target of 90 percent (figure 16). Positive performance on this indicator reflected strong collaborative efforts of implementing agencies in mobilizing resources and partnerships with communities that facilitated nation-wide campaigns for successful immunization rounds. Introduction of combined measles rubella vaccine into immunization schedule contributed to this success story. Success in increased immunization coverage was to a large extent attributable to funding from Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI). However, continued eligibility for GAVI funding is not guaranteed, as it is tied to the level of GDP per capita that a country. Given high level of dependence on GAVI, the need for domestic mobilization of resources is not only imperative, but urgent.

Figure 16 - Percentage of Fully Immunized Children under One Year of Age

Source: Annual Progress Report, MNDP 2016

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Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART)

Estimated coverage showed that new HIV infections among children declined from 23,000 in 2000 to 8,900 in 2015. The proportion of children living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy was estimated at 34 percent in 2013, 31 percent in 2014, 39 percent in 2015, and reached 73 percent in 2016, against a R-SNDP target of 90 percent (Figure 17). Corresponding to positive trend in number of children on ART. Estimated number of deaths among children attributed to AIDS also dropped from 12,000 in 2000 to 4,300 in 2015. Burden of HIV among children (90%) was mainly attributed to mother-to- child transmission of HIV due to high prevalence of HIV among child-bearing women and general population.

Uptake of ART among adults was initially higher than among children. Efforts to improve on number of adults on ART included improving staffing levels, which translated in training of nurses in Consolidated Paediatric, Adult ART and Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT). Furthermore, health care workers countrywide were trained in adolescent ART. By end of SNDP period, uptake among children and adults had converged at slightly over 70 percent for each cohort.

Figure 17 - ART uptake among Adults and Children

Source: Annual Progress Report, MNDP 2016

Under-five Mortality

A consistent reduction in under-five mortality was observed during the plan period. Under-five mortality declined to 75 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2013/2014 from the baseline of 119 deaths per 1,000 live births. While noting the positive trend, the SNDP target of 56 deaths per 1,000 live births was, however, not met and the current rate is still considered high. The main reasons attributed to

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the high under-five mortality rate were: prevalence of preventable diseases (notably, diarrhoea) due to unsafe drinking water, sanitation and garbage management (UNICEF, 2014). There is need to scale up interventions that address both underlying and immediate causes of under-five mortality. Proven successful interventions included: expanded programme on immunization; integrated management of child illnesses under which the sector fully developed the Essential New-born Care Scale Up Plan with its accompanying training package and trained student nurses; and the Nutrition Programme. In the long run, however, addressing structural determinants, such as poverty and education status will improve the rate and sustainability of reduction in under-five mortality.

Maternal Mortality Ratio

The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) remained high during the SNDP period and was reflective of the negative socio-economic impacts, adverse traditional practices and service delivery constraints. Immediate main causes of maternal mortality were haemorrhage, abortions, hypertension, sepsis and obstructed labour. The 2013/2014 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey estimated maternal mortality rate at 398 deaths per 100,000 live births. While the steady decline in maternal mortality during the SNDP period is appreciated, the rate was not enough to meet the plan target of 105 deaths per 100,000 live births. Further reduction of the MMR will entail implementing proven strategies such as accelerated family planning programme and comprehensive Emergency Obstetric Care, which entails ensuring steady supply of essential supplies and a functional referral system. At community level, Safe Motherhood Action Groups (SMAGs), which provided social support for women to take up reproductive health services need enhancing.

Figure 18 - Trend in Maternal Mortality Ratio, 1996-2013/14

Source: CSO, ZDHS 1996-2013/2014

Involvement of skilled health personnel at delivery is an important strategy for improving maternal health. Owing to interventions implemented over this period, there was a consistent increase in proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel. The 2013/2014 ZDHS data showed that there was a substantial increase in percentage of deliveries assisted by skilled health personnel. Proportion of births attended by trained birth attendants was estimated at 44 percent in 2010 and

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rose to 64.2 percent in 2014, (check source of 2015/2016 figures) 54 percent in 2015 and 66 percent in 2016, against a target of 70 percent. This was complemented by an increase in rural health centres, which provided a hygienic environment for deliveries. Infrastructure development was one of the hallmarks of the R-SNDP

4.8.3 Social Health Insurance

Health financing is an important component of the health system as it impacts on the production, delivery and consumption of health services. While Government allocation to health sector in nominal terms increased, share of health sector budget to national budget declined; it was estimated at 9.9 percent in 2014, 9.6 percent in 2015 and 8.3 percent in 2016 (Figure 19). Total Health Expenditure (THE) per capita increased to US$73.6 in 2012 from US$51.8 in 2010. Government contribution within THE reduced from 50.1 percent in 2010 to 39.9% in 2011 and 38.1% in 2012 while donor contribution increased from 39.3 percent in 2010 to 46.6 percent in 2011 to 48.0 percent in 2012. As a percentage of GDP, THE reduced from 4.2% in 2010 to 3.9% in 2011 and 4.0% in 2012. Government Health Expenditure (GHE) as a percentage of GDP reduced from 2.1% in 2010 to 1.5% in 2012. Both GHE and THE increased at lower rates than GDP growth rate.

Increase in financial resources to health sector is largely due to additional donor support. A stable number of Cooperating Partners (CP) committed funds and technical assistance to the health sector. However, most of the assistance was used for vertical programs (i.e. disease-specific programs like Malaria, HIV/AIDS) instead of targeting the entire health system. In addition, significant amounts of funding provided by NGOs and some CPs were often not accounted for in the health budget. While donor support (estimated at 56 percent in 2012) augmented domestic resources, lower than expected nominal public expenditure levels created sustainability issues.

Despite significant improvements in resource availability for health services, inadequate financing remained the primary constraint that inhibited the development of the health sector in Zambia. Funding a basic package of services in developing countries has been estimated at US$30 – $40 per capita, excluding ARVs and pentavalent vaccine. Current level of public funding per capita falls far below these estimated requirements (Figure 19 below). However, with addition of donor resources, level of financing for the sector is high; this reflects continued dependence on donor funding, which raises sustainability questions.

Importance of raising level of domestic financing for health sector was recognized and RSNDP included the Social Health Insurance (SHI) Programme. The R-SNDP KPI on health insurance coverage had a target of 50 percent for those employed in the informal sector, 90 percent coverage for employees in the private sector and up to 95 percent coverage for Government employees. However, none of the targets were not met because the sector recorded coverage rates of zero percent for all three indicators. On the positive side, the Social Health Insurance Bill, was presented in Parliament.

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Figure 19 - Government Health sector budget 2011-2016

Source: MoH, Health Financing Strategy

4.8.4 Conclusions and Recommendations - Health

Conclusions:

Relevance: Interventions in the health sector are relevant for developing human capital. These interventions reduce burden of disease, which is dominated by malaria, HIV and AIDS and diarrhoea. However, questions can be posed about appropriateness of disease-focused, as opposed to prevention biased interventions. Current health sector SP is deliberately biased towards primary and community based health interventions; marking a departure from prior Plans.

Efficiency: Absolute level of resources to health sector consistently increased over time. However, a significant portion of these resources were from Cooperating Partners, which tended to focus on vertical programs (e.g. Malaria, HIV/AIDS, vaccines) instead of targeting the entire health system. This left room for inefficiencies, as resources were committed to specific diseases as opposed to a common basket which would have generated better economies. In addition, parallel programs introduced inefficiencies in the utilization of physical resources, such as staff and facilities in the sector.

Effectiveness: To the extent that most of the targets were not met, interventions could be said to have been ineffective. The extent to which set targets are met in the future will be contingent on enhancing proven interventions in the sector.

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Sustainability: The availability of resources in the health sector was largely due to donor support. A stable number of CPs committed funds and technical assistance to the health sector. While donor support augmented domestic resources, lower than expected nominal public expenditure levels created sustainability issues. It is worth noting that the implementation of SHI is expected to improve the sustainability of service delivery in the sector.

Recommendations:

a) Cooperating Partners are an important source of funding, especially for major contributors to the reduction in the burden of disease. However, there are restrictions in the use of donor funding as such the Social Health Insurance is imperative for sustainability of programme implementation in the sector. Any potential impediments to its early implementation would require an early resolution. b) The R-SNDP rode on proven interventions for reducing maternal and child mortality and nutrition and these need to be enhanced in order to accelerate further reduction. c) There was a bias towards curative care, as opposed to health promotion in the plan period. Moving forward, more effort should be directed at health promotion, as this is more cost effective. d) Related to the above point on enhancing preventive services, the role of communities in health service needs to be enhanced, as this would ensure sustainability of interventions. e) Level of drug procurement coordination mechanisms and procedures between national authorities and cooperating partners requires strengthening in order to optimize implementation of the supply chain management and procurement plans. f) Management of the supply chain for vaccines and nutrition products are parallel systems to the central level system. There is need to integrate these into a national logistics management system.

4.9 Water and Sanitation

The World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation defines access to safe drinking water as “the proportion of people using improved drinking water sources. Improved sanitation facilities are those designed to hygienically separate excreta from human contact.” People are expected to use improved sanitation facilities which are not shared with other households, and the excreta produced should either be treated and disposed in site; stored temporarily and then emptied and transported to treatment off-site; or transported through a sewer with wastewater and then treated off-site. The SNDP recognized the importance of access to safe water supplies and adequate sanitation facilities as catalysts for human development. The goal of SNDP was to “Increase access to reliable and safe water and adequate sanitation for urban and rural population by 2016 in order to improve quality of life.” Specific objectives were to:

• Review policy, legal and regulatory framework to strengthen coordination in the sector; • Provide adequate, safe and cost effective water supply, sanitation and waste management services with due regard to environmental issues; • Achieve sustainable water resource development for social and economic development;

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• Strengthen capacity for disaster risk management, mitigation and adaptation management in the sector; and • develop innovative approaches and appropriate technologies for effective management of nation’s water resources;

4.9.1 Sector Coordination

Prior to 2010, all water resources management functions were the responsibility of the Department of Water Affairs (DWA) under then Ministry of Energy and Water Development (MEWD). Meanwhile, the Ministry of Local Government and Housing (MLGH), through Local Authorities were charged with responsibility of providing Water and Sanitation Services (WWS). In urban areas, Local Authorities contracted management of WSS to Commercial Utilities (CU). The Department of Housing and Infrastructure Development (DHID) under the MLGH was responsible for coordination and mobilization of resources for WSS. The National Water Supply and Sanitation Council (NWASCO) was established to regulate the WSS sector. The NWASCO in turn uses the Devolution Trust Fund (DTF) for resource mobilization and Water Working Groups (WWGs) for provision of water in peri-urban areas and engagement with communities.

While NWASCO regulated provision of water and sanitation services, absence of a regulator for water supply was noted. The result was unplanned extraction of water resources, which threatened the water basin. Consequently, the Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) was established in 2011 with the objective to promote and adopt a dynamic, gender-sensitive, integrated, interactive, participatory and multi-sectoral approach to water resources management and development that includes human, land, environmental and socio-economic considerations, especially poverty reduction and elimination of water borne diseases, including malaria.

The mandates for the water and sanitation sector is multidimensional and requires involvement of diverse stakeholders. Stakeholders are drawn from Government Agencies, Non-Governmental Organizations and Cooperating Partners. During SNDP period, Water SAG provided advisory support on policy and budget issues. Institutional reviews showed that sector linkages within and between line Ministries in WSS sector were weak and needed to be improved in order to encourage integrated planning and joint meetings to share best practices, experiences and challenges.

4.9.2 Water resources management and infrastructure development

The Water Resources Management and Development programme performed below expectations during the SNDP period due to the fact that funds were released late and in most instances were inadequate to complete planned programmes. For instance, critical programmes like construction of dams, drilling of boreholes for trachoma control, boreholes for emergencies did not receive adequate funding for full implementation. The funding challenges are clearly illustrated from the data in Table 23, which show that only one dam/wire was constructed over a four- year period. Almost all funds released were for routine maintenance work or other recurrent costs.

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In addition, funding to most programmes was late, resulting in non-achievement of set targets. Therefore, very little progress was recorded in the development of water resources management and infrastructure development sub sector during SNDP period.

Table 22 - Performance of the resources management and infrastructure development programme Indicator 2011 2012 2013 2014 Construction of dams and Weirs 1 0 1 0 Rehabilitation of Dams/Weirs 40 60 0 4 Boreholes for Health and Strategic Institutions 85 23 12 21 Boreholes for Drought/Cholera Prone Areas 69 13 15 0 Exploratory and Monitoring boreholes 19 17 5 0 Detailed Designs of Dams 4 - 3 3 Rehabilitation of Hydrological Stations 131 71 178 14 Source: Annual Progress Reports, 2011-2015

4.9.3 Research and Development

The Objective of the Research and Development programme was to develop innovative approaches and appropriate technologies for effective management of water resources. During SNDP period, major research in water development was undertaken by the Groundwater Resources Management Support Programme (GReSP). The programme aimed to strengthen technical capacities of Water Resources Management Authority and its related Catchment and Sub-catchment Councils in sustainable groundwater management. The focus area of GReSP encompassed the Kafulafuta and Kafubu river catchments and the Mpongwe karst area, on Copperbelt province. Although the province is predominantly a mining area, there are population growth and agriculture induced pressures on land and water resources, which necessitate research and development interventions. Groundwater aquifers and resources in this catchment are limited, not well explored, and under risk of over- extraction and pollution by acid mine drainage from the copper mines. Therefore, WARMA and GRePS undertook a study, which focused on developing a groundwater management plan for the area. At the time of this evaluation, the study was still at a preliminary stage and no results had been derived.

4.9.4 Integrated water resources management

As was indicated above, WARMA was established to focus on integrated water resource management. WARMA’s approach to regulating use of water in Zambia is based on international best practices of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in line with the country’s national development agenda. Approach is governed by a core principle laid down in Water Resource Management Act which states “Water shall be used efficiently, sustainably and beneficially in public interest for present and future generations”. In line with this approach, developing a water permits database system is of critical importance in achieving an integrated water resource management programme. The database fits into WARMA’s functions of granting water permits and licenses for right to use water for various purposes under the Act. The tool also aids in establishing and maintaining an accessible information system and to publish forecasts, projections and information on water resource allocation in Zambia. A direct benefit of water permitting tool is preservation and protection of Zambia’s water resources.

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This will in turn help regulate abstraction, allocation, use, development and management of water resources in a sustainable manner.

Among projects implemented under water resources management support programme is Groundwater Resources Management Support Programme (GReSP), aimed at strengthening technical capacities of the Water Resources Management Authority and related Catchment and sub- catchment Councils in sustainable groundwater management.

In cooperation with The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, WARMA undertakes field campaigns and data collection from water users and drilling companies in order to assess and monitor Zambia’s groundwater resources. (BGR-what is this in full) supports application of a Groundwater Information Management System (GrIMS) within WARMA through upgrading of technical components, training courses and intensive on-the-job training with partner staff. GrIMS is a tool for further analysis of data and their presentation, for example, in GIS maps.

4.9.5 National Water Supply and Sanitation Programme

Rural supply

National Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Programme consists of a coherent set of investments and institutional and sector support activities aimed at providing and sustaining water supply and sanitation services to rural population. However, even though assessments show that the program resulted in an increase in the proportion of rural population with access to safe water from 41 percent in 2006, when sinking of boreholes started, to 49 percent in 2010, the programme was marred with challenges. For instance, the Auditor General’s report on Water and Sanitation Support Program of 2014 determined 792 of planned 865 boreholes were drilled, but identified a number of implementation challenges such as boreholes not drilled but paid for, dry boreholes, wasteful expenditure due to overpayment on contract prices, poor borehole siting, faulty equipment and lack of training of communities in maintenance of facilities. Water supply and sanitation programmes benefited from Cooperating Partner participation; exemplified by DfID and UNICEF financed Hygiene and Sanitation Scaling-up Programme in 67 rural districts across the10 provinces of the country with a track record of 2.7 million new users of improved sanitation between 2012 and 2015.

Urban Supply

As mentioned above, Local Authorities in urban areas contract management of WSS to Commercial Utilities (CU). The CUs are subject to licensing and regulation by NWASCO. Assessments of urban water supply showed that as a result of water sector reforms, especially contracting out water management to CU, access to water exceeded the set target of 80 percent (Figure 20 below). Though the target was exceeded the challenges of low access to adequate sanitation and low proportion of households that are metered still existed, both of which were below set targets. The level of performance is uneven among CU, with those in affluent areas performing better than others. Across the board, however, Unaccounted-For -Water (UFW) remains a major challenge. For instance, even though on average CUs have managed to narrow the difference between the amount of water produced and the amount of water billed progress was quite slow and there were failures to meet

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standards set by NWASCO. The UFW accounts for about 50 percent of water production for majority of CUs and is usually as a result of inability to provide meters so that they can accurately measure and bill customers according to usage (resulting into most consumers paying less than they actually consume), as well as distribution losses resulting from leaking pipes.

Figure 20 - Commercial Utilities’ performance

Source: NWASCO Annual reports, 2011-2015

Access to adequate sanitation facilities remained a challenge in urban areas. This was compounded by high level of urbanization in Zambia. The situation is especially critical for urban poor, who rely on unsafe sanitation facilities; there is need for sustained campaigns to ensure that households use latrines and practice safe hygiene measures such as regular hand washing to control diseases such as typhoid and cholera.

The urban water sector was also faced with challenges of extending water supply to newly developed residential areas. Most urban areas were opening up new residential areas due to increased demand for accommodation resulting from population increase. Despite a clear institutional setup, there was inadequate consultations and coordination among stakeholders resulting in consumers not receiving satisfactory services. For instance delegation of authority to CUs for WSS while local governments retained allocation responsibilities resulted in allocation of plots without first providing necessary services such as WSS. This contributed to a proliferation of private boreholes and poorly constructed septic tanks which in turn resulted into contamination of underground water.

The other challenge affecting the provision of water and sanitation services was high proportion (65 percent) of urban population living in peri-urban areas. A multiplicity of NGOs and funder run projects for provision of water in such areas; these were later harmonized under a “basket fund” for peri-urban water development, called Devolution Trust Fund (DTF). Since its establishment, DTF has contributed significantly to increasing access to water supply services to urban population (Figure 21).

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Figure 21: Performance of the Devolution Trust Fund

The DTF cumulatively failed to meet its annual targets due to declining funding levels. Furthermore, water supply under DTF was mostly distributed through kiosks as opposed to desired situation of individual standpipes. DTF also reportedly faced challenges of high staff turnover resulting in unplanned expenditure for recruitment and training of new staff. Furthermore, assessments indicated that CUs were not willing to provide services to low income areas due to cost recovery challenges. CUs have also faced challenges with managing completed projects in peri-urban areas with some CUs shunning these areas based on perception that there is no income. This led to poor debt management of kiosks which resulted in major donors, suspending funding pending the outcome of a proposal to establish a broad water sector “basket fund”.

Access to Safe Water

Access to safe sources of water is an important indicator of quality of life. Performance of R-SNDP on this score was modest, with rural and urban differentials remaining essentially unchanged over the period. In urban areas, the proportion of the population with access to safe water sources increased from 77.5 percent in 2011 to 89.2 percent in 2015, against the R-SNDP target of 88 percent (Figure 22)

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Figure 22 - Urban access to safe water, 2011-2015

Although the target for urban areas was met, it ought to be mentioned that urban populations are not homogenous. There were populations within urban regions that had serious challenges regarding access to safe water. This was attested to by findings of the Beneficiary Assessment, where, for instance, residents of Chongwe District (about 40 kilometres from Lusaka) consistently complained about poor quality of water in their area. They observed that water was contaminated and had a brown coloration. They further narrated that their source of water had been contaminated by waste inflows from Lusaka drainages which flowed into district. In addition, unethical conduct of private investors led to disposal of waste in the local stream, which had compounded the situation. This resulted in most residents, especially children having diarrheal diseases.

In rural areas, performance was low, marginally increasing from 61 percent in 2011 to 65.8 in 2015 against an R-SNDP target of 80 percent (Figure 23).

Figure 23: Rural access to safe water, 2011-2015

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The rural-urban gap in terms of access to safe water supplies slightly widened over R-SNDP period. The sector was unable to achieve its objective of narrowing the rural-urban gap principally due to external challenges and lack of adequate enforcement provisions in the Water Supply and Sanitation Act.

Another key determinant of quality of life is access to adequate sanitation. In urban areas, proportion of the population with adequate sanitation facilities increased from 37 percent in 2010 to 60 percent in 2011, 75 percent in 2012, before reaching 57.3 percent in 2014. In rural areas, there was a marginal improvement recorded from 33 percent in 2010, 60 percent in 2011, 65 percent in 2012 and 35 percent in 2014. Targets of 65 percent and 75 percent access of adequate sanitation for rural and urban areas respectively, were not met.

4.9.6 Conclusions and Recommendations - Water & Sanitation

Conclusions:

Relevance: The water and sanitation interventions were relevant since diarrheal diseases are among the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the country, with prevalence being particularly high in rural and peri-urban areas. Frequent citation of water and sanitation problems by beneficiary communities attests to relevance of water and sanitation interventions.

Effectiveness: Although there were improvements in coverage of water and sanitation facilities over the SNDP period, rural-urban disparities remained wide. While water and sanitation coverage rates were generally high in urban areas, aggregate figures mask intra-urban area disparities, with peri-urban having low coverage levels.

Efficiency: The extent of water service delivery is contingent on successful extraction, distribution and delivery processes. These processes are, however, not efficient, as leakages were a common feature, leading to high levels of unaccounted for water. This has been a recurring concern of water utility companies, who lose valuable revenues from such leakages. These inefficiencies ought to be addressed in order to improve on service delivery.

Impact: To the extent that water and sanitation related diseases are still prevalent, impact of water and sanitation programmes was limited. Communities, especially in rural areas recounted persistence of water and sanitation related diseases pronounced among under-five children and were a major contributor to child mortality.

Recommendations: a) Improvements in water and sanitation services has favoured urban areas, a process which has perpetuated the rural-urban gap. Interventions focused on rural areas are needed to bridge this gap, with particular attention to peri-urban areas.

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b) There is need for coordinated institutional arrangements for water and sanitation interventions that are implemented through sector and project-based activities in order to avoid wastage and hence achieve operational efficiencies. c) The water and sanitation sector is affected by data problems, which need to be addressed. Further, reporting systems from communities, districts up to the national level need improvement. d) The introduction of regulation of water and sanitation service delivery should be accompanied by Regulatory Impact Assessments. 4.10 Education

Under the Revised Sixth National Development Plan (R-SNDP), the National Implementation Framework Phase III (NIF III) provided a comprehensive sector development plan with clear targets, aligned with the National Vision 2030 as well as with the 4th Sustainable Development Goal, to ensure inclusive and quality education for all .In addition, a review of the Education Policy was commenced in 2016.

There were 34 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in the R-SNDP used to measure annual performance of the Education and Skills Development sector spread across the various levels of education including early education, primary, secondary and tertiary. During the year under review, 26 of these were measured, representing 76% of the Education sector KPIs. The remaining 8 KPIs had insufficient data to enable meaningful assessment. Further, there were no indicators to measure outcomes and impact.

The objectives for the Education Sector were the following:

• To increase access and participation to early childhood education (ECE); • To improve quality, access and equal participation to primary education; • To improve quality, access and equal participation to secondary education; • To improve quality, access and equal participation to tertiary education; • To improve adult and youth literacy levels; • To provide entrepreneurial skills that are relevant to the job market; • Enhanced market access and promotion of Foreign Direct Investment.

The 2016 Progress Report mentions that the Sector experienced challenges due to the continued inadequate allocation of funds, coupled with erratic funding releases from the Treasury. This hampered the Sector’s ability to achieve the targeted outputs and outcomes. This was in tandem with the findings from desk reviews, interviews at central, provincial and district levels and the involvement of the beneficiaries and secondary data sources.

Generally, stakeholders focused more on accessibility to and quality of primary and TEVET education.

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4.10.1 Performance analysis

In 2013 ZMW 5,555 million was allocated to the sector, representing an increase of about 14.5% in the total budget allocation compared to the ZMW 4,850 million in 2012. Of this, 98.8% was from domestic resources while only 1.2% was from Cooperating Partners, a strong demonstration of the government’s commitment to the education sector.

During the R-SNDP implementation period, the Education sector was the second best performing sector with an average KPI achievement rate of 39%. In terms of the mean progress rate, on average the Education Sector was outstanding during the R-SNDP period recording a progress rate of 88.25%. This was despite a percentage cut in the education sector budget from 20% in 2015 to 17.2% in 2016 of the overall national budget. During this period the Sector experienced further reductions in the approved budgets.

The reduced budget should be viewed in the light of budget allocation in developing countries where 47% of Global Partnership for Education (GPE) partner countries, including 43% of countries affected by fragility and conflict, spent at least 20% of total government expenditure on education . This is in line with the national intention of being a strong middle-income country for which reason reduction in sources that can build the required capacity seems contrary to the focus of objective 1, 2 and 3 in the R-SNDP.

Impact analyses conducted by decision-makers, implementing staff, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and beneficiaries are found in annex 8.

Notwithstanding, the sector continued to face some challenges. For instance, an estimated 195,582 children were out of school in 2013 . Furthermore, the transition rate to upper secondary education had fallen steeply from 50 percent in 2007 to 37 percent in 2014. The dropout rates were significantly higher for orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs), students from poorer families, and those attending schools in rural areas. Hence, performance in schools remained below the minimum standards established by the Ministry of Education (MoE).

4.10.2 Early Childhood Education

In the R-SNDP the target of 30 percent enrolment was achieved with enrolment standing at 29.9 percent and with an increment in learners from 2015, which stood at 70,776 learners in 1,526 Early Childhood Education (ECE) centres to 124,046 learners in 1,849 ECE centres in 2016. The female Grade 1 entrance with ECE experience was 24 percent against the targeted 31 percent, which was an increment of 3.5% against the 2015 entrance. Despite the increment of female entrants with ECE experience the gender disparity in ECE experience entrance was 5 percent.

There was a significant difference in attendance rates in ECE between more urban and more rural provinces. The inconsistency between attendance in respectively urban and rural areas is significant with close to four times higher attendance in the capital than in the far rural areas, and 40% less attendance in Northern Province compared to the national average (See Table 23).

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Table 23: Attendance Rates in Early Childhood Education by Province, Zambia 2015 Province Attendance Rate Central 23.5 Copperbelt 49 Eastern 18.7 Luapula 14.6 Lusaka 47.7 Muchinga 21.5 Northern 12.8 North-western 20.4 Southern 35.4 Western 21.4 Zambia 29.8 Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey

In the visited districts the establishment of ECE classes were largely done by using an existing primary school classroom, which reduced either the hours for learning in primary school as class rooms had to be shared and/or it increased the pupil/teacher ratio in the affected classes. In either case the quality of the primary education was significantly reduced in the affected schools, which resulted in drop-outs.

The findings revealed that in the initial phase of implementing the ECE policy, the allocated budget and human resource was in adequate to support its implementation. Further, the field visit revealed that there were no ECE teachers deployed in the visited areas despite having trained teachers. This may in part explain the high pupil/teacher ratio at 99:1 against the target of 25:1. This may have negative consequences with regard to enrolment, as experienced in primary education in instances where education quality is low.

Due to limited learning space in most ECE centres, the lack of playground and high pupil/teacher ratio, ECE learners were confined to sitting in class most of the time. It is a known fact that children of ECE age need physical, intellectual and social stimulation for optimum learning and development . The ECE attendance in Mongu, one of the visited sites, was 15 percent against the national target of 30 percent, which is significantly lower than the national Net Enrolment Rate (NER) of 29 percent.

4.10.3 Primary education

During the SNDP NER dropped from 93.7% in 2011 to an NER of 90.4% in 2016 , which is below the targeted 100%, but above the baseline of 89%.

The decline in attendance, despite efforts to increase NER may be in part a reflection of the fact that during the R-SNDP, the Ministry’s focus was to complete all outstanding secondary school projects making investments in primary schools minimal.

There is a discrepancy between urban and rural provinces. Data in Table 25 show a significant difference in attendance between more urban and more rural provinces with Copperbelt having the highest attendance at both 7-10 and 11-13 year olds while Luapula had the lowest attendance at both ages.

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Table 24: Attendance Rates in Primary School by Province, Zambia 2015 Province Attendance Rate 7-10 Years 11-13 Years Central 80.9 92.3 Copperbelt 88.7 94.3 Eastern 68 83.4 Luapula 58.2 83.6 Lusaka 84.9 93.5 Muchinga 76 93.7 Northern 67.9 88.9 North-western 78.5 92.5 Southern 82.1 93.3 Western 76.2 92.2 Zambia 77.2 90.9 Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey

It is an obvious conclusion that the difference between predominantly urban and rural provinces and between younger and older age is related to the distance to school. It may be relevant to establish whether this is the main and/or only reason with the aim to take effective measures.

In 2016 the Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) at primary school level stood at 43.3 . This was against the R-SNDP target of 45.6, but slightly above the baseline of 42.7.

Table 25 shows that differences in PTR between more urban and more rural provinces. The highest PTR was found in Luapula with 101.6 with the Copperbelt having the lowest at 42.9.

Table 25: Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) in Primary School by Province, Zambia 2014 Province PTR Central 53.4 Copperbelt 42.9 Eastern 66.1 Luapula 101.8 Lusaka 44.7 Muchinga 65.5 Northern 66.0 North-western 54.6 Southern 53.6 Western 54.5 Zambia 55.3 Source: Education Statistics Bulletin, 2014

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The Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR) stood at 46.4 and 51.5 at grades 1-4 and 5-7 respectively . The increase in PTR from 2012 was attributed to enrolments exceeding the increase in the number of teachers that were recruited. Simultaneously, the completion rate for Grade 7 dropped from 107 percent in 2012 to 99 percent in 2013, in part due to fewer learners in the targeted group.

For the period 2014-2016 the target for Net Enrolment Rate (NER) was not met for the primary schooling level (Grade 1-7). The NER in 2016 stood at 90.4 percent against a target of 100 percent which was lower than the 2015 and 2014 NER of 111 and 97 percent respectively. This development should be viewed in the light of construction of more class rooms and upgrading of some community schools to primary schools, which would expectedly enable full enrolment.

To help lower the PTR, the Ministry deployed 2,289 new teachers to the sub-sector in November/ December 2016.

Positive experiences with primary education in the visited provinces and districts include:

• Gazetting of community schools to Government schools which improved the quality of education provision; • Qualified teachers were employed in schools that were upgraded from Community to Government schools; • Teacher training has worked well; • Increased number of text books in lower grades.

The focus on increment in number of secondary schools during the R-SNDP period negatively affected the quality of primary education because some primary schools were upgraded to secondary schools hence reducing the number of primary schools despite a significant population growth of 3%. This discrepancy between the actual situation and governmental attention to service delivery shows in stakeholder experiences and views at the field sites . Decision-makers, civil servants and beneficiaries at district and provincial level were overall of the view that the distances to schools were still too far for many and that the quality of education needed to be improved. The following were cited as issues:-

• Upgrading of primary schools to secondary schools made distances to primary schools too long, therefore affecting enrolment and attendance; • There was a limited number of teachers trained in special education, thereby disadvantaging people with disabilities.; • Pupil/teacher ratio remained above the 40-45 pupil norm because of shortage of teachers; • Most rural schools in the visited districts had dilapidated structures including Inadequate and dilapidated staff houses; • Educated teachers not employed and deployed; • Poor human resource management led to some districts being allocated a higher number of teachers than while others had no new teachers despite having a teacher deficit; • Inadequate text books at upper primary level compromised the quality of education provided; • Non-availability of hygienic sanitation facilities at schools affected attendance and retention; • Lack of libraries.

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The free primary education policy resulted in more children attending school affecting the TPR despite recruitment of more teachers. The recruitment was primarily done to rural areas, which is reflected in the stakeholder views above.

The upgrading of some community schools to primary school was viewed positively, although the consequences were the same as mentioned above.

The positive parental reaction to government efforts in education shows in willingness to have children educated. However, parental reaction is equally prompt when the governmental investments do not provide access and quality education the community reacts promptly by considering drop-out. During the R-SNDP there was little activity in the expansion of existing infrastructure. This was mainly due to the fact that the Ministry’s focus was to complete all outstanding secondary school projects, while the SNDP delivered 100% to infrastructure in 2013. Despite the lesser construction activity in the primary education sector the number of primary schools increased from 8,804 in 2015 to 8,823 in 2016.

4.10.4 Secondary Education

In the period 2012-2013 the number of secondary schools (Grades 8-12) increased to 690 from 663 in 2012, largely on account of upgrading some primary schools into secondary schools and through completion of the construction of new ones. Completion rates at secondary level are measured at grade 9 and 12. In 2013 the completion rate stood at 61.5% at grade 9 dropping from 64.2% the previous year while for Grade 12, it was at 31% dropping marginally from 31.1%. The increment was gender balanced with 1.1% increment in female and 1.1% male learners. The gender parity in grade 10-12 went up from 0.80 in 2012 to 0.90 in 2013.

In 2016 there was an increase in both the number of secondary schools and enrolment from 832 schools in 2015 to 851 school in 2016. Thus the enrolment in 2016 increased in number by 2.5% compared to that of 2015, while the enrolment rate declined from 28.1% in 2015 to 25.4% in 2016.

The increase in the number of pupils was attributed to the additional places made available in the 220 upgraded day secondary schools. In addition, the implementation of the two-tier-system of education (Vocational and Academic Education) was enhanced. The decline in NER indicates the need for continued construction of secondary school facilities.

The number of students that transitioned from Grade 7 to Grade 8, increased from 62.8 percent in 2015 to 96.6 in 2016. This was against the set target of 68 percent. This target was, therefore, met and exceeded. For Grades 9 – 10, the transition rate stood at 49.04 percent in 2016 against the set target of 50 percent. This was an increase from the 2015 rate of 46.2 percent. At grade 12, the number of learners who sat and attained the School Certificate pass rate improved in 2016 to 62 percent compared to 57.05 percent in 2015.

The increase in secondary school completion rates may be attributed to the increased number of secondary schools due to the infrastructure development focus of the Government, provision of bursary support to vulnerable students.

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In a bid to enhance quality teaching and learning as well as to reduce the national PTR, which was at 59.7 in 2016, the Ministry deployed 3,410 newly recruited teachers to secondary schools. However, the achieved PTR of 59.7 against the targeted 36.1 reflects a significant under-achievement and a positive popular interest in educating at a higher level.

The national PTR at grade 8-9 at 23.9 is seen as a result of the teacher recruitment exercise that had been going on for the previous 7 years, while the increase in 2016 to 36.9 at grade 10-12 is attributed to the shortage of teachers qualified to teach at that level . The achievement is still above the baseline of 35.2.

The PTR is distributed as indicated below.

Table 26: Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) in Secondary School by Province, Zambia 2014 Province PTR Central 36.0 Copperbelt 42.5 Eastern 32.0 Luapula 40.2 Lusaka 39.0 Muchinga 24.4 Northern 26.7 North-western 38.8 Southern 31.7 Western 39.3 Zambia 36.0 Source: Education Statistics Bulletin, 2014

Data in table 27 is contrary to earlier differences between predominantly urban and more rural provinces. Muchinga had a better PTR than Copperbelt and Lusaka provinces, which are more urban. Presumably the reason is lower enrolment at higher levels in the most rural provinces.

Government officers, decision-makers, CSOs and beneficiaries at district level emphasised on these positive experiences:

• The Keeping Girls in School (KGS) Project undertaken in 2016 which aims to provide bursary support to secondary school girls from vulnerable households in the ten provinces and is meant to encourage females to complete their education • Upgrading of 22 basic schools to secondary schools in Mongu, Western Province significantly increased access to secondary education • Government efforts to support children of poor families with bursaries and to keep girl children in school was greatly appreciated at both administrative and beneficiary level at the visited sites.

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Despite the increase in the number of secondary schools, stakeholders had the following negative experiences:

• The number of secondary schools was inadequate for learners who qualified to secondary school. • Parents were hesitant to allow young girls to walk long distances or send them away from home to attend secondary education. • Further, most secondary schools lacked the facilities that are prerequisites for quality secondary education such as; libraries, laboratories and sports facilities. • Early marriages and lack of role models who could demonstrate the values of education contributed to the negative impact in the sector. • Despite computers having been delivered to a number of schools at the visited sites, the targeted schools had no power to utilize the equipment.

4.10.5 Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TEVET), Community Learning Centres

During the SNDP the number of registered institutions providing technical education, vocational and entrepreneurship training increased to 268 from 230 in 2012. This was largely as a result of the increase in privately owned institutions . The number of students in the TEVET institutions increased by 3.4 percent to 34,702 from 33,569 in 2012 with all the programme categories registering increased enrolments. The increased enrolments were partly due to the increased pass rate at Grade 12.

At the end of R-SNDP the total budget allocation to the Ministry of General Education was ZMW 1,115,414,286.16. Skills development was allocated ZMW 121,296,339.00, reflecting 10% of the total budget allocation. Of the allocation to skills development, 45% was ear marked for infrastructure development while 44% was allocated to transfers.

The major achievements in the sector included the continued construction of new trades training institutes, construction and rehabilitation of additional infrastructure at existing Trades Training Institutes. The Sector recorded an overall increase in student enrolments due to increased capacity arising from the newly constructed infrastructure, as well as the use of open and distance learning as an alternative mode of training. In addition, the implementation of the two-tier-system of education (Vocational and Academic Education) was enhanced.

The Ministry also sourced for funding from cooperating partners such as ILO and UNESCO, for the development of the draft policy on Entrepreneurship Training and the review and diagnosis of the Education and Skills Policy.

The TEVET completion rate KPIs were met for both males and females. The female TEVET completion rate stood at 74 percent against a target of 68 percent while the male completion rate was 80 percent against a target of 64 percent.

The positive trend was attributed to deliberate mechanisms which were put in place to ensure that completion rates were high, such as the TEVET Bursary Scheme for vulnerable students. Despite the obvious interest in TEVET education none of the 11 planned TEVET facilities were completed within the R-SNDP.

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The number of youth aged 15-24 years completing TEVET against the total number of youth in this age group (20% of the total population: male 1,595,628/female 1,598,065) was around 1.1% which is alarming taking the national goal into consideration and the general political wish to ensure robust placing of Zambia as middle-income country.

Despite being trained, most graduates were unemployed during the period under evaluation. Looking at the professions covered they were overall traditional both with regard to type of professions – hair dressing and tailoring for females and construction and mechanics for males. It seems as if developments in non-traditional sectors, e.g. new techniques and machinery in the building and manufacturing industries, the use of computers, and the need for professional repair of computers, mobile phones, radios and TVs, watches etc. had seemingly escaped the attention of the Ministry of Higher Education (MOHE) and TEVET institutions. Other reasons such as lack of qualified teachers and equipment were mentioned in 2016 APR with the latter defining the quality of the technical training. Technical skills can only be acquired through practice, which requires tools and equipment. If these are not available the graduates will have a paper stating existence of certain skills, while the reality is different. A look around shows simple and/or low-quality constructions and a low level of maintenance of buildings, vehicles etc. This is not a common characteristic of a middle-income country.

A study conducted by the International Growth Centre showed that there was no active labour market information system in 2013. Currently very limited labour market information exists in an easily accessible form in Zambia. This means that firms and industries do not know the types of skills coming out of the higher education system, and that people enrolling in post-secondary education are unaware of which skills are in demand and what they may be able to earn when they get a job. In addition to this, education providers are also unaware of changes in demand for certain skills and are therefore slow to respond to industries’ needs. The series of interviews undertaken confirmed that there are specific qualities other than academic/theoretical knowledge that are sought after which do not appear in official labour demand and supply statistics.

4.10.6 University Education

The search for secondary data sources on the status, relevance and quality of university education in Zambia did not yield the required results. However the following primary and secondary data will be used for this part of the education analysis

At the end of the R-SNDP the Sector enrolled a total of 59,272 students in the public universities. In order to improve access, the Ministry continued to construct additional hostel accommodation at UNZA, Copperbelt and Mulungushi universities. Furthermore, the Sector completed one university (i.e. Kapasa Makasa), which had a student enrolment of 550 .

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The Ministry of Higher Education also reviewed university curriculum at the three public universities through the Support to Science and Technology Education Project (SSTEP). Furthermore, Lecturers commenced various courses aimed at upgrading their qualifications to improve quality of service delivery. However, towards the end of the evaluated period salaries for university staff were cut, which as expected had negative consequences on academic education and research, which was contrary to intentions of the R-SNDP objectives and goals.

The International Growth Centre study reported that those interviewed responded that education providers do not seem to be aware of the relevance of certain skills that graduates are expected by industry to have. Changes in science and technology which have happened within industries and even more broadly, are not reflected in the current education curriculum. While fundamental principles may be covered, more advanced knowledge, including recent developments, are not. This means that firms have to provide expensive in-house training in order to get new employees to the required level. This creates a further incentive for firms to hire foreign skilled labour.

Overall, industry feedback is centred on the lack of modern relevant skills among higher education graduates. This confirms the perception that there is a lack of linkages between industry and education sector providers. Since 1974 when the government took the training of technicians away from industry, there has been a consistent mismatch of skills provided by the education system and what industry demands. Industry experts confirm that most higher education graduates have the theoretical knowledge but lack the hands-on skills that the industry requires. The search for properly qualified graduates with the relevant skills is usually daunting, and when found, usually costly. Apprenticeships are a way to bridge the gap between theoretical knowledge and experience.

An example: In one of the study interviews a pharmaceutical drug manufacturing company, the respondent lamented that there are no locally trained industrial pharmacists despite repeated attempts to engage with the relevant education providers to encourage this type of training. These education providers face little incentive to put these types of courses in place but this has profound effects on the industry. The lack of the required skills and knowledge made the company move the production out of the country.

Noticeably, the stakeholders at district level never discussed university education as means for breaching the poverty cycle, which may reflect the national lack of understanding of the importance of academic skills for innovation and subsequently growth at household and national level. 4.10.7 Impact

Cutting across all levels of education, in 2013, preliminary statistics revealed that out of 16 Key performance indicators (KPIs) that were used to measure annual performance of the Education and Skills Development Sector only 7 were met. In 2016 Education and Skills had 26 KPIs measured. Out the KPIs 12 were met and 14 were not met. The main reasons for under-achievements was strong focus on construction, a halt in deployment of teachers and subsequently overall high PTR affecting the education quality negatively. The focus on construction without sufficiently regarding staffing and equipment may be the reason for under-performance although most achievements were above baseline data.

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The impact is mainly higher enrolment, while the outcome and impact of this enrolment is yet to be seen.

4.10.8 Conclusions and Recommendations - Education

Conclusions:

Relevance: • The infrastructure focus was relevant, but delivered disproportionately as plans and budgets were not congruent. • Efforts in infrastructure development had an overall adverse effect on the quality of education, as more education opportunities attracted more pupils and students, while the deployment of teachers and availability of books and equipment did not match the new infrastructure. The low education quality is contrary to the government policy to promote growth in terms of social development (employment/income, health, education etc.) at household and national level. • The partial lack of market relevance, innovation and budgetary support in the TEVET and university education does not correspond with the national focus on growth and poverty reduction in both SNDP and R-SNDP. • The level of efforts seems out of touch with the need for education since the age group 15-35 years of age totals to 33% of the population (or 3,193,693 people) out of which a majority should be under formalized education to be able to contribute effectively towards building the nation. • The increment of attendance in education shows the popular interest in education the needs of which is still insufficiently covered despite investments in constructions, deployment of teachers etc. It seems as if the rapid popular response to education opportunities, maybe in conjunction with the 3 percent annual population growth, may not have been taken sufficiently into account when estimating needs for education across all levels. Easy access to education will result in additional need for education which is why coverage of the population growth alone will not cover the request for education.

Effectiveness: • The effectiveness across the line of education was grossly affected by the budgetary and later upcoming reductions in available finances. • Distances and family capacity seems to affect school attendance which across all levels is higher or significantly higher in Lusaka Province than in two of the visited provinces, Northern and Western Provinces. Such uneven school attendance risks holding the rural population at a high level of poverty for generations to come.

Efficiency: • Findings show that infrastructure not adequately staffed and equipped does not deliver t education objectives aimed at equal access to quality education with the aim to secure domestic and national growth. Such part investments are therefore inefficient. • Irrespective of the considerable R-SNDP efforts in upgrading schools, classes and teachers, the performance in education was overall higher under the SNDP than under the R-SNDP. • Efficiency, or value for money, presupposes adequate, stable and foreseeable availability of funds.

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Impact: The impact of upgrading infrastructure and teachers did not yield the desired impact as both statistics and stakeholder consultations provided similar indications that the insufficient investment in teacher deployment, laboratories, books and other equipment compromised education quality, allegedly more so in rural areas than in urban and peri-urban areas

Sustainability: • The continued reduction of the education budget in the R-SNDP period of work is in contrast to the R-SNDP objectives aimed at employment and human development. Infrastructure alone does not lead to employment and human development. The SNDP period yielded better results in terms of better teaching and higher availability of books and equipment per pupil, which made people believe in the value of education. But since the performance during the R-SNDP was little convincing as described by the, the risk of the population losing faith in education is high, which may result in drop-outs. • The current partial lack of market relevance of both TEVET and university education will result in continued high unemployment rate potentially making skilled education be unattractive and inconsistent with the national goals and objectives (SNDP and 7NDP) which aim at human, community and national growth/development.

Recommendations: • To introduce evidence-based, holistic planning, which focuses more on delivering fully functional institutions than on delivering buildings. Irrespective of the level of population coverage such approach would ensure that any amount of money spent would fully benefit those who are targeted as opposed to covering widely in terms of buildings and/or ineffective institutions. • Ensure equal access to education through having schools reasonable distances, effective PTR and quality education across the country. Parallel to this inclusive teaching methods would help in activating same-level pupils in groups making the education be more pupil relevant despite the high PTR. • Forecast the need for modern technical training and university education, so institutions are in place and fully equipped when the current school-going children will graduate. If left without opportunities they may start loitering as indicated by the local stakeholders or engage in low- income, unskilled occupation and thereby never leave the inter-generational poverty cycle as aimed at in 7NDP. • To engage in regular, e.g. five-yearly, market analyses to know which professions are marketable and the level(s) of knowledge and skills required. This should determine the content and duration of skilled and academic training and education. It would further inform the market about available skills. • To learn from other countries, e.g. in Scandinavia, which has a very strong industry-determined training system in conjunction with university/industry collaboration around content of studies and need for new lines of studies • To empower a larger part of the population there is a strong need for better balance between access to and quality of education between urban/peri-urban and rural areas. • To establish inclusive education centres covering the entire scope of education and boarding facilities could be placed in all provinces. This would ensure inclusion enabling children with disabilities, children with long distances to school, orphaned children and other marginalised

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children to attend school. Such centres could be placed centrally to serve a number of surrounding bigger towns in a rural area.

4.11 Social Protection

The Zambian government defines Social Protection as, “policies and practices that protect and promote the livelihoods and welfare of people suffering from critical levels of poverty and deprivation and/or are vulnerable to risks and shocks”.

The Social Protection Policy 2014-2018 applies a three-pronged approach to social security comprising social assistance; social security; livelihoods and empowerment; and protection.

During the SNDP and R-SNDP social protection focus was in tandem with the same key interventions although some programme titles changed.

The objectives were to:

• Empower low capacity households and persons with disabilities • Extend social security coverage to the informal sector • Provide social assistance to incapacitated households • Provide care and support to persons with disabilities, vulnerable children and youth • And ensure the protection of human rights and provision of livelihood services to vulnerable groups

The activities were implemented in close collaboration between Ministry of Community Development, Mother and Child Health and the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Youth, Sports and Child Development, Ministry of Labour, Ministry of Gender. Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Health all of which had Social Protection programmes.

Overall six KPIs reflected the desired progress in the Sector under the R-SNDP of which only one target was met. Only the social cash transfer target was met and exceeded. The achievements during the R-SNDP was 12.1 percent under the target making Social Protection the least performing KRA. Finding fiscal space for critical economic and social investments is necessary for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), for sustained human development of children and women, and for realizing human rights, particularly during downtimes. An ILO working paper was intended to serve as an introductory guide to identify possible financing options to introduce and/or scale up social protection systems and implement the Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No. 202), as well as other SDGs that have impacts in the lives of women, children and other social groups. This paper should be viewed as an overview of fiscal space-enhancing opportunities that are to be further explored at the country level. Table 28 shows examples of ways to increase the national fiscal capacity to deliver to national and international social protection targets.

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Table 27 - Matrix of fiscal space strategies, selected countries Costa Na- Thai- Approach Bolivia Botsw. Brazil Lesotho Iceland S.Africa Rica mibia land Re-allocating public X X X X X expenditures Increasing tax revenues X X X X X X X Expanding social secu- X X X X X X rity contributions Reducing debt/debt X X X X X X X X service Curtailing illicit financial X flows Increasing aid X Tapping into fiscal X X X reserves More accommodative X X X macroeconomic framew. Source: ILO: Fiscal Space for Social Protection and the SDGs: Options to Expand Social Investments in 187 Countries, 2017

As illustrated in table 28, most countries prefer a combination of fiscal measures to ensure adequate social protection.

When looking at the fiscal commitment in Zambia, it is obvious that more efforts could be put into expanding the fiscal capacity. In Zambia a range of social protection initiatives were offered to the poorest in the population. The performance of each initiative is analysed below.

The Food Security Pack Programme (FSP)

The programme was launched in the year 2000 and has been running since then. It aims at assisting vulnerable but viable families aiming at mitigating food insecurity and prevention of malnutrition among low capacity households through provision of farming inputs and promotion of alternative livelihoods (small livestock).

The annual SNDP beneficiary target was 35,000 out of which 32,000 were reached. Of the 32,000 reached, 29,400 vulnerable households were directly assisted with funding from the Government while 2,600 beneficiaries were assisted from the Revolving fund recoveries.

The 2016 KPI target for graduating households was 45,000 against an outturn of 29,930. Therefore, the target was not met partly due to late distribution of the package and partly due to drought in some parts of the country. The FSP pack contained agriculture inputs in terms of a cereal (maize seed), a legume (beans/groundnuts seed) and fertilizer (urea and D-compound).

Apart from the delay in distribution of the FSP, the content of the FSP pack was also a problem. The beneficiary insistence of growing maize, which had yielded little in the last 4-5 years, could not make beneficiaries qualify for a weaning off as seen in the last years of stagnancy in achievements.

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The Expanded Food Security Pack Project (EFSP)

The Project was implemented in three districts, namely, Chadiza, Nyimba and Itezhi-Tezhi. It provided agricultural input support pack of cereal, legume seeds and fertilizer. There was also a monthly cash supplement of K100.00 attached to the programme given to the benefiting households to cushion the impact of hunger at household level during the hunger prone months of January to March.

In 2013 a total of 9,000 beneficiaries were reached representing 3,000 in each of the three districts. The project targeted to assist 27,000 vulnerable farming households during its three year period of implementation in the three districts. A total of 18, 000 beneficiaries were assisted by the end of the project. The project came to an end in 2016 and 4,468 beneficiaries were weaned off because they were considered viable while the remaining 13,143 were attached to the FSP programme. Out of the 4, 468 that were weaned off, 389 were linked to the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) under the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock.

Social Cash Transfer (SCT) programme

During the SNDP/RSNDP the Social Cash Transfer programme provided social assistance to incapacitated individuals and households in order to reduce extreme poverty. The scheme was scaled up from fifty (50) districts in 2014 to seventy-eight (78) districts in 2015. The number of beneficiaries also increased from 145,698 in 2014 to 329,625 in 2015.

The programme’s budget was funded by the Government and cooperating partners (DFiD, Irish Aid and US Aid).

School Feeding Programme

The National Food and Nutrition Strategic Plan for Zambia 2011-2016 guided the national efforts on school feeding during the SNDP and R-SNDP periods.

As a way of increasing access to education, particularly in rural schools, the Ministry of Education continued to implement the School Feeding Programme (SFP) in collaboration with partners such as World Food Programme (WFP), MoH, MoAL and MCDMCH. The outcome of this intervention was improved retention rate due to the declining drop-out rate as well as improved attendance by the learners.

The school feeding programme continued during the R-SNDP period. To enhance pupil attendance and improve nutrition status among primary school learners, the Ministry continued funding the Home Grown School Feeding Programme in all the 10 provinces. During year 2016, a total of 1,520,760 learners were being fed during school days (Monday to Friday) in 2,590 schools in 38 districts.

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Youth, Sports and Child Development

The sector comprised a number of activities including TEVET/Youth Empowerment, construction of stadia, engagement of youth in sports, and rehabilitation of street children. MCDMCH took over the child component from the Ministry of Gender in 2016.

Youth Empowerment interventions were implemented both during the SNDP and R-SNDP. Youth empowerment was achieved in two folds namely, the provision of vocational and life skills to the Out of School Youth and the provision of Loans and Grants from the Youth Development Fund for the promotion of youth entrepreneurship development for wealth and employment creation. In 2013 a total of 5,500 (3,070 Male and 2,430 female) youths were trained and graduated in various traditional trades such as brick-laying, tailoring and carpentry. Relatively few youths received Youth Development Funds – a total of 417 youths against 278 in 2012 – all of which supported agriculture related income generating activities.

In 2016 a total of 2639 youths were trained in various vocational and life skills combined with distribution of hand tools for training in bricklaying, carpentry and mechanics to 10 Youth Resource Centres.

Through the support to the Science and Technology Education Project (SSTEP), 1,300 students were awarded scholarships at trade test and crafts certificate levels.

In 2016 a total of 3,850 youth development fund projects worth ZMW 85,000,000 were validated for funding out of which only 321 projects worth ZMW 8,664,192 were funded – or around 8% of the projects were funded. This is in coherence with the beneficiary perception that funds are close to inaccessible. The repayment of the funds was poor apart from 2013 where it stood at 100% against 10% in 2012. The rate of funds return in 2016 was not accounted for, but interviews indicated that the repayment was very low.

Decision-makers at district level and local entrepreneurs mentioned that locally relevant professional training was not offered, e.g. short training in innovative farm products, processing of farm products, mobile repair etc. This was viewed as an obstacle to expansion of local businesses. As a consequence, entrepreneurs-to-be start businesses without frequenting the technical training opportunities and thus with a high risk of failing in business. Stakeholders at field sites also pointed at the inconsistency between the available skilled training without start-up capital and the opportunity for untrained youth and women to receive loans for business development. The resulting high level of unoccupied young people provokes idling and risk behaviour.

The sports department in the ministry planned to construct and renovate stadia with the view to provide sports opportunities to the youth. In 2013 the ministry managed to complete three out of nine sports facilities. Achievements during the R-SNDP period are s one facility in 2014, while none was constructed in 2015 and 2016 despite a target of 8 facilities in 2016. Information on the number of youth participating in sports was not recorded.

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The rehabilitation and reintegration of street children at the Zambia National Service Camps and Drop-in-Centres assisted 183 children in 2015 against a target of 200 and assisted 540 in 2016 against a target of 1,540.

People Living with Disabilities

During the R-SNDP there were three KPIs directly addressing People Living with Disabilities (PLWD), PLWDs were also entitled to three other services addressing all vulnerable people. Of the three KPIs none were met in 2016, while one achievement was above the baseline, one was less and another had no baseline.

Through MCDMCH there were special initiatives for people living with disabilities (PWLD) as some were given 5 ha of land, inputs and start-up capital. Nonetheless the interviews indicated that a number of the beneficiaries were in urban centres although initially expressing interest in engagement in agro-based activities. Further, the cash transfer to people living with disabilities was double of that provided to other vulnerable people.

The provision of loans to this group benefited only 216 people out of the targeted 1,200 people which is a noticeably low target for a middle-income country.

Ten percent of the TEVET Bursary was reserved for persons with disabilities. This was aimed at encouraging the participation of persons with disabilities in TEVET. There were, however, no records of the number of persons with disabilities who benefited from the bursary.

It seemed to have been overlooked that many from this vulnerable group have adequate abilities for development, if assisted for a shorter period to breach the limitations of the disability through training in a new profession, assistance with specifically made tools, start of own business instead of employment etc. Cash alone could not suffice for a radical change in life style.

Focus groups of PLWDs pointed at a number of shortcomings including:

• Lack of assistance to sign language interpreters to enable use of public services; • Lack of access to professional training as distances are too far, learning environment does not accommodate PLWDs etc.; • PLWDs living with OVC need specialised support; • Insufficient boarding schools for children with special needs; • Lack of representation in decision-making bodies, e.g. DDCCs and PDCCs; • PLWDs at district level indicated difficulties with being assisted through Zambia Agency for People with Disabilities (ZAPD), Constituency Development Fund (CDF) and CEEC as there is no assistance for transportation of physically disabled, people conversant with sign language etc. in meetings held by the mentioned organisation. Therefore, PLWDs could not access the opportunities.

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The above list shows a will and capacity to live a close to normal life if PLWD were given equal access to opportunity. In education, though, the needs were substantial need for education. Children with physical disabilities suffered from the same assistance short-comings as mentioned above. Further there were no provisions for inclusion of little or moderately retarded children, as there were no special education classes in most primary schools and there is no provision of aids and appliances and audio-visual aids reducing the effect of a given disability.

Around 2 million people in Zambia live with a disability. A considerable number of these could engage in employment or income generating activities enabling an independent life. Multiple policies, plans and Acts support inclusion of PLWDs, while the transfer from paper to National Development Plans (NDPs) and implementation seems to be wanting. NDPs do not include PLWDs, but are limited to financially support of a minor part of PLWDs.

Child Protection

During the SNDP and R-SNDP the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) engaged child protection and continued to mobilise and reintegrate children living on the street back to their families and communities. In 2016 a total of 59 boys and 16 girls were removed from the streets of Lusaka and were taken to Children’s Centres.

The Functional Literacy and Skills Training Programme

The Programme facilitated the formation of literacy classes, identification and training of volunteer literacy instructors who were also paid an allowance for teaching community members who were unable to read and write. In 2013 the programme targeted 40,000 learners against which 33,048 were reached, while the achievements in 2016 were not accounted for in the 2016 Annual Progress Reports.

The Self-Help Initiative Programme

The Community Self Help Initiatives programme facilitated the empowerment of low capacity households in order to reduce poverty, through support to community initiated projects. Members of the communities were encouraged to work together to improve their living standards. The Ministry of Community Development Mother and Child Health facilitated the implementation of self-help projects through project verification and appraisals, and provision of grants, monitoring of projects. During the period under review the programme implemented 18 projects out of the targeted 22, recording 82% progress.

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The Government through the MCDMCH released grants to successful community groups which implemented projects such as:-

(a) Completion and rehabilitation of small infrastructure that did not require major construction or machinery; such as community halls, Community Markets, Community libraries and Community recreational facilities., group housing, and so on. (b) Construction of community footbridges, culverts and linking small roads, dip tanks, animal shelters, fish ponds, beekeeping, gardening etc. (c) Water and sanitation projects such as construction of pit latrines and hand wells. (d) Projects that take into consideration the care and support to People living with HIV/AIDS.

The Public Welfare Assistance Scheme (PWAS)

The Public Welfare Assistance Scheme (PWAS) is Government’s Social Assistance programme aimed at mitigating social economic shocks and other negative effects such as, poverty and the HIV and AIDS pandemic. The Scheme offers a range of support depending on needs including in-kind support (shelter, clothes), support with education materials and health care for destitute people with special needs and counselling. The Scheme targets extremely poor older persons, orphans or neglected children, chronically ill or disabled persons, female single headed households.

In 2012 the target was 100,000 while the outturn was 86,114 people assisted. In 2013 the PWAS failed to reach the target of 150,000 people. The actual achievement was not indicated.

During the R-SNDP (2016) the target was 30,000 people and none were assisted.

There was thus a considerable slide in assistance from the SNDP to the R-SNDP. This corresponds well with the scorings of PLWD above.

The National Pension Scheme

The scheme is administered by The National Pension Scheme Authority (NAPSA). It was established in February 2000 by the National Pension Scheme Act no. 40 of 1996 of the Laws of Zambia. The Act was revised in 2015. NAPSA is financed through contributions at a total of 10 percent of employee’s gross earnings capped at 4 times the National Average Earnings and this contribution is shared at 5% employer and 5% employee. However, 80% of the informally employed people, those with small scale business and rural employment do not qualify for any support. This means a very limited outreach as seen in all social protection measures in Zambia.

Justice/Human Rights

Two new establishments were added to the Judiciary in 2016, through amendments to the Constitution, namely the Court of Appeal and the Constitutional Court. In terms of performance, the Court of Appeal had a case backlog of 99 percent while the Constitutional Court had a backlog of 67 percent. Thus, none of the courts managed to meet their targets in 2016 though the performance was an improvement on that recorded for 2015 for this KPI.

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In terms of the proportion of reported cases that are investigated, the annual target was to achieve a rate of 75 percent across all the investigative institutions. The Human Rights Commission reported a total of 851 cases. Out of these, 168 cases were investigated and concluded, representing an achievement rate of 20 percent. Therefore, the KPI target of 75 percent was not met.

Across the scope of services related to justice all services apart from one target were met. Decision- makers at district level had experienced a variety of human rights violations and challenges which included among others; high cost of hiring lawyers. Hence the beneficiaries feel that there is no equal access to quality services in the legal system, which should ensure broad employment of human rights.

Interaction with decision-makers and beneficiaries at devolved levels indicated that basic human rights were not always observed, which fully tallies with the status given above.

4.11.1 Impact

During the R-SNDP the achievement of KPIs reached 50 percent in 2014, but a mere 17 percent in both 2015 and 2016. Further, coverage of the poorest population stood at 1.5 percent coverage while 0.03 percent of the poorest rural population was on the FSP programme.

Overall, social protection initiatives in their current form had limited outreach in relation to the widespread poverty levels in rural areas. The assistance per capita was minimal and was predominantly small grants. Unconditional cash transfers or farm inputs do not encourage or support the recipient to take charge of their own life, when a harvest fails, because the FSP will be granted again the following year. If supporting graduation, the same budget would over the five year review period have assisted more people than when support is given to the same families. With continued or longer- term support, the motivation by beneficiaries to graduate from the programme is reduced and the impact, therefore, reduced. This breeds dependence on the programme and coupled with the limited outreach, the impact on livelihoods transformation and poverty reduction is minimal.

This limited impact shows in the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) which found that the incidence of extreme poverty stood at a national average of 40.8 percent with an incidence in rural areas of 60.8 percent, which is five times higher than the estimated urban levels at 12.8 percent (Central Statistical Office, 2016).

4.11.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Social Protection

Conclusions:

Relevance: • Protection of socially vulnerable people is expected in a middle-income country. The provision of initiatives securing an acceptable life is thus not only relevant, but a prerogative.

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Effectiveness: • Of the multiple evaluated social protection initiatives only one met the target. Most initiatives were partly delivered ranging from 10-80 percent. • With a recorded 2 million vulnerable people in Zambia and an outreach of only 12%; under social cash transfer and an outreach of less than 2% for youth empowerment, the capacity development of the generation that should carry the Zambian growth was substantially impaired.

Efficiency: • The allocated budgets did not reflect the planned activities and were exposed to several further cuts during the review period. Impact: • The impact at national level is seen in the gradually declining macro-economic status. At household and community levels the poverty levels remained the same, or increased, despite the various interventions being implemented.

Sustainability: • Findings showed that the Plan had well-intended social protection measures which if implemented holistically and collaboratively across sectors, would have had greater impact and sustainability. Cash transfers needed to be implemented in collaboration with other empowerment programmes offering agriculture or business support, market relevant training, affordable loans and market linkages which systematically support sustainable graduation from the social protection.

Recommendations

a) The transformation of the Food Security Pack should be effected to include inputs, which are likely to have secure yields, e.g. sorghum or cassava instead of just maize, with the aim to ensure weaning off of beneficiaries after the planned two years and enforcement of change towards an independent productive life. b) Cash transfers should be further transformed to include a condition that beneficiaries engage in viable production or other income generating activities and participation in saving groups. This is the model adopted by Tanzania. c) Capacity building for graduation of beneficiaries could include combining technical and/or business training with inputs in terms of tools, start-up capital and/or affordable, revolving loans – and making the combination conditional. d) There is need to develop a clear and easy-to-apply criteria for identification of cash transfer beneficiaries and provide the required capacity building among implementers to achieve non- biased and representative selection of community members. e) Since the labour market has more than the required number of people with traditional skills in construction, service provision etc., there is need to provide technical and business training in areas that are innovative and which have a ready market. f) There is need for a holistic macro-economic review and planning to have the funds for measures breaching the inter-generational poverty cycle.

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4.12 Gender Mainstreaming

Profiling of gender mainstreaming

The SNDP had four key performance indicators (KPI) relating to Gender-Based Violence (GBV), women in decision-making, women’s access to Citizen’s Economic Empowerment Commission (CEEC) and women employment in the formal sector. The KPIs were carried forward in the R-SNDP. Two additional KPIs were added, namely Percentage of women with titled land and Gender Parity Index Primary to Tertiary level.

Gender mainstreaming was meant to be achieved through policy processes and capacity building of respectively, women enabling participation in national development and of institutions aiming at gender mainstreaming. Attempts to introduce gender mainstreaming through the Gender Policy (2014) was meant to ensure that all ministries applied gender mainstreaming concerns in all programmes . The ministries, provinces and districts consulted during the evaluation all confirmed that they had no knowledge about gender mainstreaming and had consequently not introduced it in any of their activities. Aware of this Ministry of Gender proposed that Directors, PSs and parliamentarians should understand gender mainstreaming to ensure support of officers in charge of planning, budgeting and monitoring and evaluation. Gender mainstreaming was viewed as an activity of disaggregation of beneficiaries and reporting by male and female.

Major achievements were the translation of the Simplified Version of the Anti-Gender Based Violence Act No.1 of 2011, into the seven (7) major local languages. Further, the sector facilitated drafting of the Gender Equality Bill and the Child Code Bill and the 2008 SADC Protocol on Gender and Development was ratified in September 2012 .

During the SNDP the Ministry of Gender achieved key milestones in 2016 which included the implementation of the SADC Protocol on Gender and Development through the commencement of enacting the Gender Equity and Equality Act. In addition, the Girls Education and Women Empowerment and Livelihood Project was launched in order to reduce inequalities in access to and control over re-sources and enhance benefits of development through attainment of education. Further, the Ministry implemented the Agriculture Development through Value Chain Enhancement (ADVANCE) project by the procurement and distribution of 39 tractors and 94 tillers to 49 chiefdoms. In addition, 78 (38 female/40 male) tractor operators were trained and all the equipment was handed over to cooperatives.

Feedback from Mungwi agricultural staff was that the tractors delivered to Mungwi were not used at all. This requires further understanding, considering that the equipment was meant to enhance the productive capacity of the cooperatives to make them more economically viable.

The Girls Education and Women Empowerment and Livelihood Project

This programme launched in June, 2016, was meant to reduce inequalities in access to and control over resources and enhance benefits of development through attainment of education.

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At beneficiary level, there was a strong emphasis on the weak women empowerment interventions, which reached very few beneficiaries and the transparency of which was often blurred. The impact of the programme could not be ascertained by the end of 2016 as the full roll-out of the programme took place after the review period.

Citizen’s Economic Empowerment

During the R-SNDP there were no data for assessing economic impact achieved through the CEE interventions and formal sector employment of women. The achievements on Women empowerment programme under the SNDP were minimal and consisted of hand-outs of tools and chicken to very few women groups and there was no clear strategy for business mentoring, project financing for value addition or market support.

In 2016 the number of women projects funded through CEEC stood at 36% against the targeted 30%, which was very commendable. At beneficiary level however, there was a strong emphasis on the weak women empowerment interventions, which reached very few beneficiaries and the transparency of which was often blurred in view of poor records on targeted beneficiaries and absence of beneficiary registers.

Women with Tilted Land

In 2016 the percentage of women with tilted land stood at 32.4% against the targeted 30%. This target was met and performed above expectation, interestingly, when discussing gender issues, there was no mentioning of this as an achievement in any of the visited institutions at central or devolved level. This could have been due to the fact that the data management and reporting on most gender indicators was not very widely disseminated. When queried about challenges faced by females with regard to accessing land, the males felt that there had never been a challenge for women to get access to land which is why the target had easily been met. Land access was not cited as an issue even at devolved levels.

Gender parity in education

This aspect was comprehensively covered under Education . The gender achievements at the end of the SNDP period (2013) were 1.00 in Grade 1-7 against the targeted 1.1, and 0.80 in Grade 10-12 against the targeted 0.90. Grade 8-9 had no data. The lower GPI may be ascribed to the transit drop- out also experienced in 2016 and the absence of special measures for girls.

In 2016, the overall Gender Parity Indicator (GPI) for Grades 1 – 4 was 1.020 while the GPI for Grades 5-7 was 0.98. This was against the 2016 GPI targets of 1.008 for Grades 1 - 4 and 0.987 for Grades 5-7. Therefore, the targets were met. The reduced GPI at this level is confirmation of the challenge of girls that start to drop out of school upon transiting to upper primary level. All gender parity targets at secondary school level were met. For Grades 8-9, the target was 0.926. The outrun was 0.95, thereby meeting and exceeding the target. For Grades 10-12, the target was 0.84. The actual outturn was 0.86, thereby meeting the target. The increase in the GPI at secondary school level during the year under review can be attributed to the various interventions put in place by the government which

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included the promotion of the re-entry policy as well as the policy to have 60 percent of bursary support beneficiaries as females.

Participation of women in decision making positions

In 2013 it is recorded that participation of women in decision making positions in the public service remained static at 27 percent. No newer data were found.

The 2016 Annual Progress report indicates that of the targeted 40 percent of women in decision- making positions only 18 percent of such positions were occupied by women. This includes women in politics.

Despite gender equality efforts, the last General Elections (Presidential, Parliamentary and Local Government) held in 2016 saw fewer female candidates than in the 2011 General Elections. Only 16 percent of parliamentary candidates were women, with an equally modest number for Ward Councillors (9 percent) and Mayors (13 percent). By 2016, only 14 percent of parliamentarians were women . The same picture appeared when studying the civil service’s abidance to focus on gender. A study conducted by the University of Zambia in 2014 indicated that the structures put in place to spearhead gender programme implementation, such as Gender Consultative Forum and Gender in Development Division, lacked adequate capacity to do so, and hence proved inadequate and inappropriate to the task at hand. Lack of; adequate funding, staffing, gender analytical skills, data base, clear and specific terms of reference, coupled with inadequate time due to too many responsibilities and lack of linkages with other stakeholders, have contributed to the failure to implement the gender programmes effectively.

It was also established that males continued to perceive females as inferior, hence unwilling to have female managers. The findings also indicated that females were perceived; to be less qualified and experienced; lacked self-drive and support from fellow women, and above all continued to face institutional discrimination through company policies and practices. The study established that the above mentioned factors have contributed to inhibiting the promotion of females into decision-making positions in the civil service. It was argued, however, that if gender programmes were sufficiently implemented, including capacity building programmes for females and gender sensitization of male employees, most of the negative factors mentioned would become irrelevant or disappear.

Noticeably, the Labour Force Survey, 2014, had no systematic gender disaggregation of data, which made it difficult to make an exact account of gender bias in salaries, types of male/female employment and other aspects of interest for assessment of and planning for gender equality and equity.

The findings in this study fully support the experiences and suggestions of the Ministry of Gender and confirms that full-scale capacity building was a cardinal requirement to have gender mainstreaming introduced and made operational. This, though, presupposes political commitment across all levels of political influence.

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Victim Support

In 2013 the, the Victim Support Unit (VSU) received and recorded 10,217 cases of GBV against 12,924 recorded in 2012. The 2012 recording of cases was unusual high assumedly because of effective advocacy resulting in women gaining confidence to report cases. In 2016 it was reported that 36 percent of women had experienced GBV against the targeted 25 percent, so the target was far from met.

At devolved levels of governance, the one-stop centres have had a felt effect and more cases had been reported there, which corresponds with the national statistics of increased reporting of GBV cases. There was further collaboration with partners about enforcement of gender-based violence prevention, which made offenders more apprehensive. It was learned at provincial levels that gradually, more men had come to frequent the centres to report exposure to GBV. This also included male to male GBV. The VSUs do thus serve a very important function of recording types of GBV and assisting victims, but also by knowing from reported cases which psycho-social and legal measures needed to be developed to support victims and reduce the number of GBV offences.

4.12.1 Impact

Around 50 percent of the KPIs for Gender were achieved against 52 percent of funds released.

A bird’s eye view on gender shows that efforts were made during the R/SNDP period, but that the recorded achievements are minimal. When comparing Zambia with other countries, the following picture emerges:

Table 28 - Zambia’s GII for 2015 relative to Selected Countries and Groups Female Population with at Matenal Labour force partici- GII GII Adoles seats in least some secondary Country mortality pation rate (%) value Rank birth rate parlia- education (%) ratio ment (%) Female Male Female Male Zambia 0.526 124 224 90.4 12.7 52.3 48.9 69.8 80.9 Malawi 0.614 145 634 136.2 16.7 14.9 24.2 81.2 80.8 Botswana 0.435 95 129 32.3 9.5 85.1 86.7 73.4 81.3 Medium HDI 0.491 — 164 40.8 19.9 40.4 57.6 37.2 79.4 Maternal mortality ratio is expressed in number of deaths per 100,000 live births and adolescent birth rate is expressed in number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-19. Source: UNDP Human Development Report, 2016 Zambia, and UNDP Human Development Report 2016, Botswana

The table shows that apart from education, Zambia lags behind across all parameters. This was validated by a range of reports on gender on Zambia and through the interactions with the institution responsible for Gender mainstreaming. Since gender mainstreaming requires mind-set change, and is attitude-based, persistent efforts may show results in future.

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4.12.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Gender

Conclusions:

Relevance: • The extensive work at policy level was, indeed, relevant as no substantial gender measures can be taken unless legalised. • Aiming at growth and poverty reduction entails putting gender mainstreaming at the core of Plan interventions, as failing to take into account 50 percent of the needs, interests and capacities of respectively, male and females in a society will substantially hinder progress.

Effectiveness: • The lack of gender mainstreaming coordinating body at devolved levels of governance may explain the lack of effective up-take of gender mainstreaming at the highest levels of decision- making, whether political or administrative. Changes at devolved levels cannot happen without a strong support from the coordinating level.

Efficiency: • Having met 50 percent of the KPI targets with 52 percent of the budget released cns be translated into efficient use of resources;

Impact: • The general impact of gender mainstreaming efforts had been minimal, for education, decision making and economic empowerment. Only GBV efforts, which had a longer period of implementation, had the desired effect. However, with the policy work in place and possible inter-sectoral gender mainstreaming efforts in place, positive impact on social economic indicators may be achieved in the future years.

• The lack of inter-sectorial coordination between Ministry of Gender and Ministry responsible for Child Development and line ministries in introducing sector and inter-sectorial gender mainstreaming activities makes efforts have less or no synergy and thereby less effect. Coordination of gender mainstreamed efforts at central level would set the frame for gender mainstreaming at provincial and district level and thus be of direct benefit both for staff at devolved level with resulting impact for the beneficiaries.

Sustainability: • Apart from the GBV initiatives most of the other gender initiatives are new, most of these launched during the R-SNDP to establish whether they will sustainable or not. The outcome and impact of CEEC, return-to school, access to land etc. are yet to be seen. Such interventions are only likely to be sustainable if beneficiaries observe positive changes.

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Recommendations:

a) It is strongly recommended to finalise an implementation guideline for the Gender Policy and establish the required structure.

b) All ministries should mainstream gender in all activities, which means considering and incorporating male/female needs, interests and capacities across all planning. This is not a matter of having gender disaggregated data, but rather a matter of supporting both sexes optimum in all national activities and services for the benefit of the individual and the nation. Then data will implicitly have the required gender specifics.

c) There is strong requirement for investment in invest capacity building initiatives primarily targeting central-level decision-makers in political and administrative spheres with rapid inclusion decision-makers at devolved levels. This may require long-term mentoring of key staff across all sectors.

d) Specific efforts are needed within the government to create role models for gender balanced employment of women in decision-making positions, which may entail re-thinking of systems and structures, e.g. establishing facilities for breast-feeding in the governmental premises; arrangement of baby-care opportunities of babies up to 6 months within the office facilities and/ or maternal leave which can be stretched over a period of time e.g. 6 months in total used within two years after giving birth.

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5.0 Findings - Cross-cutting issues

5.1 Environmental Protection

The Zambia Environmental Management Authority coordinates the implementation of activities of all ministries, appropriate authorities and conservancy authorities in matters relating to the environment.

In practice, the main focus of work of ZEMA is on environmental licensing and coordinating and analysing environmental impact briefs and assessments, in line with the mandate provided through the Environmental Management Act.

Environmental protection as an issue, received very little attention in R-SNDP. The Plan stated intentions of mainstreaming all cross cutting issues including environment, into sector-specific implementation plans. However, in the SNDP the issue of environmental protection appeared to have been left out. Without KPIs, It was further observed that environmental protection was not referenced exclusively in the plan making it a challenge to assess its performance. Overall R-SNDP implementation plan however, issue of environmental protection was not mainstreamed, there was no reference anywhere to the subject, and no general or sector-specific KPIs were defined for environmental protection. This makes it impossible to assess performance with regard to mainstreaming environmental protection. It seems the only mainstreaming mechanism is requirement for any project development in a sector to comply with environmental regulations through EIAs and compliance with licensing requirements. This is a considerable change compared to SNDP, which had a detailed section on environment, as part of chapter on cross-cutting issues. It also included the following four KPIs:

1. Level of compliance to environmental regulations & safeguards (Percent of the total number of facilities) 2. Total greenhouse inventory undertaken emissions in CO2 (Gg) equivalent 3. Percent of solid waste collected and disposed in designated sites in Urban local authorities 4. Effluent discharge compliance to statutory limit.

In 2013, SNDP Annual Progress Report, level of compliance with environmental regulations was 43 percent against a target of 55 percent, while percent of solid waste collected and correctly disposed of, was 48 percent against a target of 50 percent with no data on greenhouse inventory.

Assessing results for environment has been hampered by lack of reporting on the sector, SNDP Annual Progress reports. Suffice to note, the 2016 Zambia Environment Management Agency’s annual report was available for use in evaluation.

Environmental Impact Assessment

ZEMA’s 2016 annual report showed number of EIAs submitted during SNDP initially increased from 242 in 2011 to 523 in 2013, and then gradually reduced to 364 in 2016. Considering the slowdown in economic activity during last two years of R-SNDP implementation, as evidenced by downward trends in GDP growth rates, this could explain reduction in EIA applications.

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Majority of EIAs are for mining and prospecting industry, followed by Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry. In 2016, total of 364 projects were considered, out of which 323 were approved representing 89 percent.

In order to ensure industries operate in an environmentally sound manner, ZEMA issues licences in five thematic areas. These are (i) Emissions for air and effluent, (ii) Waste management, (iii) Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS), (iv). Hazardous waste and (v) Pesticides and Toxic Substances (PTS). In 2016, there were 2,310 licensable facilities of which 955 were assessed, inspected and issued with licences representing 41.34 percent. This reflects administrative inefficiencies in processing of licences.

A more integrated licensing system has since been developed with a validity of 3 years instead of 1 year, thereby reducing administrative burdens for the private sector.

Control of water pollution is one of mandate areas of ZEMA. In 2016, ZEMA in collaboration with Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA) monitored status of Mwambashi and Kafue Rivers in Copperbelt and found high pollution levels of sulphur and copper in places.

Control of air pollution is another important function of ZEMA, however, 2016 report only referred to air pollution from wild fires, which are monitored by ZEMA, to the exclusion of Industrial air pollution issues.

According to 2016 ZEMA annual report on to waste management, Zambia generated approximately 800,000 tonnes of waste annually since 2012. It was estimated that only about 7 percent of urban and rural populations had access to refuse collection services. The most common method of waste disposal being in the pits and indiscriminate dumping. Illegal burning of waste was cited as another practice used for reducing waste volume. Lack of waste management brings with it risks of disease outbreaks like cholera.

Institutional aspects

It was noted from the Auditor-General’s report on Management of Environmental Degradation Caused by Mining Activities in Zambia (2014) that; mining companies “do not comply with environmental rules, laws, regulations and environmental licensing conditions set by Government.” These have to be enforced by ZEMA, but AG’s report concluded that “although government had put in place a comprehensive National Policy on Environment that has domesticated a number of international conventions or protocols on protection and control of environment, the ministry responsible for environment and ZEMA have not carried out any review to assess how well the policy is being implemented by various stakeholders including mining companies.”

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Effective enforcement of compliance with environmental regulations requires considerable human and financial resources. ZEMA indicated that the number of compliance staff had increased during SNDP and, therefore, monitoring capacity had also been strengthened. As to how far this had addressed issues highlighted in the AG’s report could not be assessed by the evaluation team.

Like tourism and natural resources, environmental protection sector was moved from one ministry to another after 2011. It was at one time part of Ministry of Local Government, Ministry of Mines and then, for a prolonged period, Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources. Eventually got placed in Ministry of Water and Sanitation. Additionally, changes to Board of ZEMA were made several times, in 2014, 2015 and 2016. Such institutional instability was not beneficial for effective implementation of environmental policy and attendant programmes. Parent ministries will tend to prioritise their own core sector functions rather than environment, a newly acquired function. Similarly, new Boards constituted annually means that strategic priority focus for organisation will keep shifting as this is inevitable given new personalities with different understanding of issues coming on board.

Institutions responsible for environmental protection were affected by budgetary limitations. Particularly, ZEMA, had also been affected by the fact that from 2014 onwards, State Owned- Enterprises (SOEs) were no longer allowed to keep part of revenues they collected to sustain their operations. Cancellation of Appropriation in Aid to SOEs led to a decrease in annual funding and to more uncertainty with regard to levels of actual funding and timeliness of disbursements.

5.1.1 Conclusions and recommendations

Conclusions:

Relevance: • Attention for environment is highly relevant in all sectors and circumstances. It has however not received the attention it deserves, especially in the SNDP, where no specific provision or mainstreaming of environmental issues was undertaken. • There were no KPIs defined for environment, a major omission in R-SNDP.

Effectiveness: • It was difficult to assess given lack of KPIs. • Auditor General’s report of 2014 indicated a lack of effective regulation by ZEMA in mining sectors, with mines not complying with environmental regulations. • Effectiveness was negatively affected by institutional challenges such as repeated changes in ZEMA board of management.

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Efficiency: • Like effectiveness, efficiency was also negatively impacted by institutional challenges. From 2014, ZEMA could no longer use part of its revenues to fund operations, which undermined efficiency, with lower budgets and delays in funding.

Impact: • Lack of compliance in mining industry has led to pollution , resulting in health risks. • Lack of waste management also leads to health risks, in particular water borne diseases like cholera. • Recommendations

• Environmental issues require more attention and resources. There is need to mainstream environmental issues in NDPs so that specific performance targets are tracked. • There should be general KPIs for environment, but also specific environmental mainstreaming KPIs to be included in sector KPIs.

5.2 Monitoring and Evaluation

5.2.1 Monitoring

A key tool for effective planning and good governance is monitoring and evaluation (M&E). While monitoring is being conducted by the implementer(s), in this case the ministries at national, provincial and district levels, with the aim to gain oversight over the status of achievements for evidence-based annual and long-term planning, evaluations are conducted by external professionals , who provide an outsider’s perspective using existing and additional data. The two in combination, form a robust foundation for developing, implementing and tracking progress of a national plan, which may further guide the planning for the coming year or period. Thus monitoring and evaluation are intertwined which is why the quality of the one determines the quality of the other .

During the period 2011-2016 there was no National Performance Framework (NPF) describing: (i) the cascading of indicators, (ii) cascading of responsibilities, (iii) data collection tools, (iv) data entry tools and procedures, (v) data consolidation and (vi) data analysis into which ministerial frameworks could feed. Without such detailing of modes of operations, operations risk being ad-hoc and implicitly providing weak, erratic and/or incorrect data, which was the case during the two Plans . There was a standard, though, for the national annual review process by sectors which provided data for the SNDP Annual Progress Report (APR).

During this period, the ongoing development of an M&E framework changed into development of an M&E Policy, which was not completed during the period under evaluation. The Policy would have holistically determined the character and scope of all aspects of M&E. It was also appreciated that in the Plan period, efforts to introduce ICT-aided solutions and streamlining of M&E functions in Ministries, Provinces and other Spending Agencies (MPSAs) were undertaken. Such efforts included introduction of some sector Management Information Systems (MISs) the launched National Planning and Budgeting Policy of 2014, IFMIS, piloting of the online Management Monitoring Reporting (MMS) and identification and training/orientation of M&E focal point persons in selected MPSAs.

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Both the SNDP and R-SNDP intended to support development of human resources in M&E, while there was no provision in either Plan for investment in capacity development , which would be a prerequisite for development of a fully operational national M&E system. In the R-SNDP, there was provision for capacity building of human resources at the Institute of Economic and Social Research under the University of Zambia, which took place although without delivering fully as planned. The details of this was not obtainable at the source. The consequence was that staff responsible for M&E had no understanding of the importance of the data and correct data handling resulting in low quality and inconsistent data on which evidence-based planning cannot be built.

Further, the SNDP planned for rigorous reporting comprising Monthly Reports, Quarterly National Performance Reports, Sectoral Performance Reports, Project Spot Monitoring and Annual Progress Reports. It should be noted that development is rarely measurable by month, or even quarter, so reporting with this frequency would be highly resource demanding with little to be seen. Only Annual Progress Reports (APRs) were prepared. It is acknowledged that some sectors need to have monthly input-output recording to enable timely service provision from central level e.g. provision of medicine to health centres. However, when conducting national monitoring, such monthly recording should in most sectors be regarded as a data collection process which subsequently informs data validation, verification, analysis and reporting.

Indicators in both Plans reflect output level achievements only, which, when standing alone, presented a weak linkage between what was achieved through the outputs and the overall desired changes (i.e. outcomes & possible impact). In that regard, there was no systematic output monitoring, as some indicators lacked data. Further, there was no outcome or impact monitoring at all. For example, completion is an output of quality education, not an outcome. Outcome should relate to development objectives and e.g. show if completing pupils from lower levels/grades continued completion until graduation into paid employment/sustainable business. That is when the inter-generational poverty cycle is breached. The impact could be to track and measure whether paid employment/ sustainable business results in better health, better education of next generation of children, tax payments etc. There were limited and unclear impact level indicators.

The R-SNDP had parts for most sectors, which narratively indicated the targeted outcome. Yet these outcome texts had no indicators and could therefore not be monitored. An example: As an output, the achievement of health posts were constructed providing the population with access to health services when sick, while the connection between a given health centre and disease prevalence was not recorded. Of the 24 new health centres in Northern Province, none were included in the Health Management Information System (HMIS) recording.

The use of records or output data was limited. Such output data could be analysed to know e.g. if the pattern of school attendance - was it seasonal, gender based, age-based etc. This would enable a learning with the possibility of developing counter-measures. Data could have been cross-analysed, e.g. Pupil Teacher Ratio against transition rate which may show that in some schools with high PTR, more students transit than in some other schools with lower PTR. This means that PTR records cannot stand alone and that other records than PTR may be more informative for better education planning. This means that with the existing sets of data, much more data analysis could have been done informing the individual sectors. It also indicates that monitoring it not a matter of amount of data, but rather a matter of collecting key data and using these optimally.

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Overall, the indicators were at input-output level which made it difficult to consistently document and measure the achievement of NDP objectives and overall impact. A few examples:

a) Number of HIV/AIDS patients under treatment: This is a purely output record -An outcome could be the ability of these patients to be independent/ engage in income generating activities/support their children with food and schooling or similarly showing an effect of the treatment. This could be recorded when they came for their drugs. Likewise, impact indicators would be the result of successful outcomes, e.g. that children of treated HIV/AIDS parents graduate at same rate as children of non-affected parents.

b) Number of households that receive FISP: Again a purely input-output record - An outcome would have been how many managed to graduate as a result of the FISP support, while impact could be how many households managed without FISP support after e.g. five years or more.

As a result, communities and other stakeholders were to some extent observant of the above discrepancies. Discussions with decision-makers and beneficiaries at provincial and district levels on the availability and quality of care services, most of them acknowledged the establishment of facilities as a positive effort, but not necessarily as a critical step toward the achievement of improved access to quality services.

Their experience was that when getting the facilities, there would often be long queues, which was a negative outcome since the sick were subjected to long ‘waiting time’, often only to be provided with treatment later in the day. Further, standing for long hours when sick was not always bearable. This could be affecting facility utilization rates because sick people cannot be motivated to spend a long time on a queue, thereby preferring to remain at home. People interviewed felt that there was a high risk of attracting other diseases if one spent too much time at the health facility. Further, patients diagnosed by a doctor could not often access medicine from the dispensaries at health facilities due to erratic supplies.

As a minor, but critical issue, Mungwi district (Northern Province) community members reported that there were usually limited resources at the health posts to buy cleaning materials and agents, hence the facility had to compromise on hygiene. Therefore, if having the construction of the health post was recorded as the achievement, although being an output achievement only, there was risk that assumptions were made that the given community would experience reduction in treatable diseases with no proof leading to such a conclusion. Noticeably, in Mongu where all planned health posts were constructed, the health posts were not yet included in the HMIS data base. Hence there were no statistics from these facilities to allow for the assessment of relevance, effectiveness and efficiency of such investments.

In the R-SNDP, outcomes were to some extent found in narratives under each sector, while results at impact level were not documented. This made it difficult to understand how inclusive growth would be manifested and the specific welfare changes that would be observed at micro and macro levels. Further, despite having monitored outputs in terms of statistics, a considerable number of KPIs had missing records of results in the Annual Progress Reports.

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Therefore, the low level of performance in M&E across all stakeholders may to some extent be ascribed to the change of Plans from SNDP to R-SNDP together with the movement of M&E functions from MOF to the new ministry (MNDP). Especially the change in focus and details of the two Plans could have made it difficult to monitor the period’s performance. This challenge was mentioned by some ministries interviewed.

5.2.2 Evaluation

Prudent evaluation depends on availability of relevant quality data produced during the monitoring exercises. Contrary to monitoring, evaluations are always (preferred) conducted by external professionals, who are tasked with looking at old data with fresh eyes and add analytical data to provide a wider and explanatory perspective to the often performance based data . Due to the longer- term perspective of the evaluation analysis, this should provide cause-effect analysis, which is not always possible on an annual basis (i.e. the typical time span for national monitoring).

This evaluation was hampered by the lack of quality data, at times lack of data, but did nevertheless attempt to apply some cause-effect and trend analysis and learning.

5.2.3 Conclusions and Recommendations - M&E

Conclusions:

Relevance: • Support of an effective national M&E system is highly relevant for learning and planning at all levels of governance. The support of M&E planned for in the two evaluated plans was inadequate in outreach and was not likely to have provided the data required for effective national planning. • The overall reliance on output level indicators (and less on outcome and impact level indicators) hindered results and evidence-based documentation of progress towards overarching NDP objectives. • Data gaps at all indicator levels negatively affected translation of information gathered during the evaluation exercise into overarching findings.

Effectiveness: • The data provision for monitoring of progress was overall ineffective building on paper-based data entry, use of staff with inadequate skills in M&E and lack of computerised systems for data entry, consolidation, analysis and sharing. The resulting conclusions on progress were, therefore, not very conclusive.

Efficiency: • Manual data entry across all levels is resource demanding and creates a high risk of having inaccurate data entries. The resources required when having ineffective systems will not tally with the level of quality data acquired.

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Impact: • The impact of having few trained staff and an inadequate M&E system across all levels of government (Government-Wide M&E) was non-availability of data, to help the nation to move faster and more effectively towards the planned growth and reduction in poverty envisioned in the national Vision 2030..

Recommendations:

• Development and roll-out of an effective M&E system takes time and is resource demanding based on the following principles: o M&E system for national strategic plans should be one cutting across sectors to avoid fragmented data. Results are rarely achieved by inputs from one sector only. An example: Health, Education and Agriculture all depend on access to roads and other infrastructure plus adequate staffing and equipment. o Results should be few enough to facilitate use of these for planning at all levels. o All M&E should be based on a manageable number of outputs, outcomes, key results and objectives. o M&E at all levels should apply SMART indicators for substantiation of results. o M&E should cover all actors contributing towards fulfilment of a strategy. Strategies cannot be achieved by government alone. o Data collection and handling should be manageable at all levels. o All levels of stakeholders should have direct access to one central data base holding all strategy data. o National M&E system to be linked with Central Statistical Office data systems, especially the indicators and respective data/information

• To have a uniform and coordinated, inter-sectoral approach to M&E and use of data enabling more effective and efficient development of the nation, there was urgent and substantial need for development of a coordinated, national M&E system. The horizon for development, purchase and installation of equipment, capacity building of staff, tests, amendments and roll-out is estimated to be 7-10 years.

• The impact of not investing in a robust M&E system may be a development set-back for Zambia, as planning will continue being erratic, ineffective and inefficient in the absence of comprehensive data showing progress in sectors, but also progress, or challenges, beyond input-output level.

• Anchoring the M&E mandate, practices and culture on a clear legislation (law) across government and beyond is an urgent requirement if full benefits of accountability, feedback and learning are to be realised from the national M&E system.

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6.0 Overall Conclusions

Conclusions that are specific for the individual KRAs are found under chapter 4, while the conclusions here are more overall and cross-cutting:

6.1 Cross-cutting Conclusions

What worked well in the Plan implementation

1. The existence of a monitoring process (informative Annual Progress Reports), although its consistency requires to be upgraded. 2. Local communities – stakeholders and citizens – are positive towards consultation processes. 3. Public procurement: a system existed although the mechanism may not always be designed adequately to ensure Value-for Money. The use of the lowest-cost criterion to award contracts seemed to have compromised quality. 4. Provinces are increasingly linked through a road network, power transmission lines, communication. Road transport costs are reduced and new regions are opened for development (e.g. mining in the North Western Province). Zambia is slightly better linked which helps market integration. 5. Roads and electricity distribution have created an enabling environment for mining and manufacturing. However, access to land for investments is sometimes a constraint. 6. Copper mines have made progress in local procurement of inputs (goods and services). Mines have also participated in local economy and community development – mines understand that they have to offer more than only salaries -- although local citizens may still consider the efforts to be insufficient or not reaching all those living in the immediate neighbourhood. 7. The focus on infrastructure had made distances to education and health facilities shorter across the country. 8. Policy and Institutional Reforms had facilitated improved delivery of some programmes, in education, health and gender.

What had not worked so well in Plan implementation

1. Challenging fiscal management resulting an increase in the budget deficit towards the end of the Plan period. High inflation rates (i.e. could not be brought down to below 5% per year as targeted in the Plan period). 2. The fiscal policy failed to significantly broaden the tax base. 3. Potential in export and in innovative productions and job creation were not explored resulting in lower-than-necessary export income and higher level of poverty. 4. (i) “Attitudes and collective mind-sets, particularly towards work and participation in national affairs require changing” (reference Vision-2030). The findings show that mind-sets were not automatically ready for desired change. (ii) Ministerial staff at central and devolved levels were cognisant of their lack of knowledge about the details of the devolution process. Others had never read the actual NDPs. Consequentially, line ministry staff were not always open toward e.g. inter-sectoral work which made ministries lose synergy effect were thus less effective, efficient and innovative.

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(iii) Beneficiary mind-sets were often conservative, too. For example, recipients of food security inputs insisted on getting maize seed despite the fact that maize yields had not improved in the previous years and was not suitable for all areas in the country. This was despite sensitisation programmes on radio where attempts had been made to inform people of the benefits of growing alternative crops such as sorghum or cassava. Such change in production would have ensured food – or income for purchase of food. (iv) During the evaluation, it was difficult to follow-up on commitments/promises made by institutions and individuals for interviews, and accuracy and quality, which could be viewed as lack of commitment and accountability. 5. Inconsistent monitoring in terms of variable quality and continuity of the monitoring process across line ministries and provinces. Many ministries had no systematic monitoring, data quality assurance and data analysis practices. 6. The national censuses and surveys, which should be carried out by CSO had generally not been carried out timely, compounding the data gaps on key national socio-economic indicators to guide planning. 7. The flow of information moved essentially from District to the Provincial and onward to the Central level without sufficient response to and feedback on proposed plans and development policy recommendations (from PDCCs and DDCCs) from Central to Provincial level. 8. It was not evident that the SNDP Annual Progress Reports have been used to take corrective measures. 9. The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of National Development Planning were not adequately equipped for managing, monitoring and evaluation of Plan implementation in view of the lack of institutionalisation of structures and capacities/resources for undertaking such a coordination function. There was no policy and legislation to guide the work. 10. Funding: stakeholders and citizens time and again complained about lack of funding (for new recruitment and for material inputs) as well as late releases of funds. However, what many citizens did not seem to recognise was that budgetary resources ultimately came from citizens- taxpayers (domestic and foreign) and therefore, they needed to effectively participate in the economy to generate wealth for the country. 11. Reportedly, substantial sums of money committed by donors remained unutilised due to systemic constraints in administrative processes. 12. Cooperating Partners did not embrace the idea of continued provision of aid through budgetary support as was the case prior to 2011. Hence it was difficult to leverage donor resources towards government’s main priority areas of infrastructure development. The Government relied on concessional loans as a dominant source of financing of infrastructure. 13. There was an increase in the population and types of livestock during the Plan period. Agricultural diversification did not take off in some provinces due to weak market linkages. Farmers preferred to grow maize for which a ready market existed through the Food Reserve Agency. 14. Land use planning, controlling deforestation/timber harvesting and promoting reforestation was not given adequate attention. 15. There were difficulties in implementing large and multi-phased projects due to inadequate – and uncertain - budget allocations, in particular for provinces. 16. Programme/project priorities foreseen in the Plan - and MTEF –were compromised by the limited resources in Annual Budgets.

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17. Provinces and district generated very little own revenue and, therefore, were highly dependent on disbursements from central government. It was, therefore, difficult for sub-national structures to generate and finance their own development initiatives in line with their development priorities. 18. Local authorities though expected to provide services had limited resources and had challenges in local financial management, mainly due to weak human and physical capacity. 19. Public procurement: Weaknesses in the management of the public procurement system tended to delay implementation of projects and procurement of services. This was as a result of inadequate implementation of procurement plans, insufficient anticipation/preparation of tender documentation by procurement entities. 20. Contract management: The high volume of contracts running concurrently, made it difficult for sector ministries and agencies to effectively manage them. This was coupled by low levels of skills in project management among many in implementing agencies. As a result, the contracting authority and beneficiaries did not receive Value-for-Money, which was manifested in poor workmanship in projects.

6.2 Achievements against Objectives

The assessment of the extent of attainment of Plan objectives is based on the R-SNDP as the most document with the most recent objectives, while the detailed conclusions concern findings from both the SNDP and R-SNDP.

This concluding analysis will use the objectives of the R-SNDP since these, with regard to focus and content, did not differ significantly from those in the SNDP. The objectives were: a) To promote employment and job creation through targeted and strategic investments in selected sectors; b) To promote rural development by promoting agricultural development, rural enterprises and providing support infrastructure in rural areas; c) To enhance human development by investing in the social sectors; and d) To accelerate infrastructure development to enhance the growth potential of the economy.

Since the four objectives were overlapping, the analysis also had references to the performance under the other related objectives. The achievements were concluded against the 2016 results which meant that Government has had a full plan period to establish systems and structures that should have enabled full achievements in a given year.

6.2.1 Employment, Job Creation and Rural Development

Employment and job creation cut across the three other objectives, and failure in these would negatively affect the employment and job situation.

According to the 2014 Labour Force Survey, about 84 percent of the working population was employed in the informal sector (91.2 percent for females, 75.8 percent for males). This was an indication of the population living with limited social security across all aspects of living conditions (income, social safety, education, health, access to services etc.).

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There was decline in employment and job creation during the R-SNDP period partly due to:

• Low national growth; • Regional disparities with regard to growth and poverty situation; and • Huge decline in the construction sector, from 18 percent in 2015 to about 9.3 percent in 2016, mostly due to the slowdown in public works commenced in the previous years. There were limited structured job creation initiatives which could have changed the employment situation.

Macro-economic findings indicated that opportunities for development of manufacturing and mining sectors, mainly for export purposes, were not fully exploited by the local and foreign private sector. In agriculture, there were overall no job/employment creation innovations especially that support to micro- and small scale agro-based industries was low in the absence of agro-based financial institutions and solutions.

The high focus on trunk roads relegated feeder roads maintenance to a non-priority status, thereby making market access for agro-products very difficult and costly.

At micro-level, the social protection initiatives were limited in work/job focus and had a minimal outreach, mainly below 2% of the potential beneficiaries across all levels of eligible beneficiaries. For example, business training, mentoring and micro-financing was in most cases not part of the social protection package despite the potential for enabling small-scale job creation. The Social Cash Transfer and the Food Security Pack promoted maize production by providing maize seeds despite low yields among small scale farmers.

Overall, efforts were relevant but either insufficient and/or not well-coordinated.

6.2.2 Rural Development

As indicated, the objectives were overlapping, part of the “Rural development” achievements were thus accounted for under “Employment and job creation”.

The country recorded a decline in agricultural GDP growth from 1.1 percent in 2014 to -7.7 percent in 2015 and -0.5 percent in 2016. The agricultural sector’s contribution to the national economy’s GDP had, therefore, fluctuated during the Plan period without sustained positive growth .

Reasons for the lack of growth were multiple and complex, but could partly be ascribed to the implementation of non-growth promoting programmes such as the FISP, and financing of the operations of the Food Reserve Agency. The two programmes; FISP and FRA, received most of the funding to agriculture, which was contrary to the SNDP intention of agriculture transformation and diversification.

Further, the potential of some production areas, such as fisheries, was under-estimated and, therefore, not sufficiently supported in terms of knowledge, skills and availability of quality inputs across all levels of actors. There was no systematic introduction of new and climate resilient/

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tolerant crops with the view to enhance food security. Neither was there strategic efforts supporting development of rural enterprises, and the required infrastructure (markets, feeder roads etc.).

Therefore, the overall conclusion is that the level of innovation and support functions were very low resulting in continued and, unacceptably high levels of poverty in the rural areas despite Zambia being middle-income country.

6.2.3 Human Development

Any development is based on the availability of human development involving health, education and skills in combination with initiatives supporting the actualization of the human capacity. Without human development, partly in numbers that are able to engage in business creation at all levels and partly human capacity in terms of innovative knowledge and skills, growth is not likely to happen irrespective of infrastructural achievements.

The human development KRA had modest performance during the SNDP. Investment in human capital was undertaken, but the high population growth rate entails that more education, health and water supply, sanitation and skills have to be provided in order to ensure effective human capital development. Human capacity could not generate growth without availability of suitable infrastructure and public services. There was need, though, to have a balanced development so that no infrastructure was established without the required human (and other) capacities since non- utilised or under-utilised infrastructure was a passive investment, which could have been spent on growth.

It seems that the interdependence between levels of human capacity and relevance and quality of infrastructure was not sufficiently considered when developing the Plans. Such considerations would determine the order of activities in both human and infrastructural developments and the type and level of developments. Finally, geographical considerations would in some cases be relevant, too, as human development in one geographical area without support of infrastructure would result in inefficient use of financial and human resources.

6.2.4 Infrastructure

Some analysis of the effect of the focus on infrastructure development has already been done in the above sections. Measured in terms of the headcount of KPIs met during the year under review, performance against targets was lower than expected with an achievement rate of 31.67 percent. A higher achievement rate on annual KPIs came from the ICT sector with about 66.7 percent achievement rate. Energy had a 60 percent achievement rate. No KPIs were met for the Transport and, Science and Technology sectors. Housing data was not available to enable effective assessment of performance by 2016.

The effect of the two better performing sectors show that the ICT sector had managed to create a noticeable improvement in mobile/internet connectivity, which helped in business development and enabled e-government.

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The low performance of Transport, Science and Technology sectors tallies well with the hitherto findings that the low focus on feeder roads negatively impacted on improvements that are driven by timely transportation of farm inputs and farm produce to relevant markets. Easy movement of small business operators and financial service providers was curtailed by low accessibility of rural areas through feeder roads. Low investments in rail and aviation infrastructure also led to the non- attainment of planned targets for the transport sector.

The findings were that as much as sufficient and effective infrastructure is a precondition for growth, there were too many projects launched during the Plan period in one particular sub-sector; roads. The over procurement of projects overwhelmed implementing and supervisory agencies to the extent that issues of quality and value for money arise. The non-completion of projects within the contract period therefore delayed socio-economic benefits to the beneficiaries of these projects.

6.3 Micro-level Effects and Impact

6.3.1 Poverty Reduction Focus and main Economic Activities Implemented

The goal of the SNDP was to achieve improved socio-economic welfare and reduce poverty. Nonetheless, the KRAs and KPIs were not change oriented to reflect the intentions of the objectives. It was not well articulated how the poverty reduction and inclusive growth were going to come about and the sectoral distributive channels for development were not clearly explained. The Plan did not have a solid Theory of Change that would articulate how the 4 key Results would actually be attained. In agriculture, all KPIs related to composition of animals, incidence of diseases and yield per hectare against defined types of crops and all indicators were pitched at output level. Apart from the “number of jobs created” and the conclusion of the “growth” indicator, there was no focus on poverty reduction. Such targets could include: Number of households with resilient crops (output), leading to: Number of households with surplus production, which could lead to: Export value of agricultural based production (impact).

The main economic activities should have included agriculture, mining and manufacturing.

Agriculture was never supported to become a driver of change as mentioned elsewhere. Moreover, a key service; extension service was too scarcely staffed and financially incapacitated to be able to promote and regularly follow-up on expected changes at farm and household levels. Without an effective link to the farmers, productions and productivity will hardly change.

Manufacturing performed well under the given circumstances. It was observed though, that there were no export plans despite the intention to have changes which would require extensive financial capacity to transform production and processing mechanisms. Most manufacturing was based on home-grown, low value raw materials, and was, therefore not transformative.

Mining did well, partly due to good or acceptable market prices during most of the period. The mining firms managed to engage in direct social protection and enhancement activities for their workers and in the areas/communities, where they operate.

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As the analysis in the preceding chapters show the level of growth was minimal during the SNDP/R- SNDP period, which in combination with the low performance of 28 percent achievements in Social Protection explains the findings in the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey which revealed that 40.8% of the country’s population lived in extreme poverty. The survey also revealed that 54.4% of the country’s population was poor, while 13.6 percent of the population was moderately poor. Further, the survey indicated that 76.6 percent of the population in rural areas was poor, with 23.4% of the urban population being poor.

With the general sector performance, both in the productive and human development sectors, it could be concluded that poverty generally persisted throughout the period of the SNDP/R-SNDP. The Plan’s overall focus on poverty reduction was, therefore, relevant, while the detailed planning for change failed in the definition of paths to change and in formulation of poverty reduction strategies. It has led to a focus on producing a large number of outputs, without due consideration of the effectiveness of those outputs to contribute to poverty reduction. A major example is the roads sector, where selection of roads was no longer primarily guided by socio-economic impact parameters, but more by the principle of “opening up the country”, leading to the construction of roads that had little potential to contribute to substantial poverty reduction.

The planned development interventions were, therefore, not guided by a deliberate process of expanding the scope of national and individual incomes through market analysis and research, tracking actions and implementation of supportive policies many of which already existed.

6.3.2 Performance Assessment and Perceptions by Beneficiaries of the Plan Implementation and Achievements

The summary of part of the semi-open interviews and part of the Focus Group Discussions showed the stakeholder perception of performance of the SNDP/R-SNDP. The templates included a documentation of the perceptions at central, provincial, district and community levels. The latter included beneficiaries of government development programmes and services, local decision makers and staff of Civil Society Organisations.

With regard to performance of policies and plans, mainly civil servants at central level seemed sufficiently informed to have an opinion, which is expressed under question 1 of the template in Annex 8.

The tendency of positive/negative perception of the performance appeared prominently from the templates, as all templates had more negative than positive scorings.

There was a general feeling at provincial and district levels that decision-making was too centralised, without due consideration for the opinions and knowledge available at decentralised levels. Government staff at provincial and district level also felt that too much of the available government funds were used at central level, with little filtering down to the provinces and districts. Yet, it was at those decentralised levels where the actual development activities needed to be well coordinated and implemented.

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Beneficiary feedback indicated that the developments were too few and not coherent, which meant that a road, hospital, ECE initiatives could all stall instead of having fewer operational activities supporting developments at local level.

Cross-cutting views at the stakeholder scores provided an immediate indication that there were overall far more negative experiences and impacts than positive across all levels of stakeholders from ministries to beneficiaries. The perception of the performance involved initiatives in productive and human development sectors, impact of governmental practices (systems and structures of services) and relevance of policies, plans and activities.

6.4 Implementation of FNDP Recommendations during SNDP/R-SNDP Before turning to the present and the future, it is useful and insightful to assess whether the recommendations from the FNDP had yielded the prospected changes. An abbreviated version of the recommendations is presented below:

1. The broad goal of the Plan that of reducing poverty was only marginally realised during the Plan implementation period and much of the progress was primarily recorded in urban areas with most parts of the rural areas remaining unchanged.

a. Interventions should include a well-targeted system of transfers. The primary aim should be the reduction of the high prevalence of extreme poverty. b. Rural finance is critical to the growth of rural economies and to the enhancement of private investment by the rural populace.

2 In order to better manage resources in a manner that is more responsive to addressing poverty reduction, there is considerable scope for restructuring the budget in the future. 3 While the planning function during the Plan had been focused more on resource allocation and application-cum-monitoring, one sure way of securing the generation of sufficient resources for pro-poor growth is to reorient planning processes to also focus on the generation and effective management of government revenue. 4 Two corrective actions are recommended. Firstly, the Government planning system requires upgrading in a way that sets out (a) expenditure prioritisation with an eye on poverty-reducing interventions; and (b) improved financial monitoring. 5 Across all the components that are covered in this Evaluation of the Plan performance, the issue of capacity building comes out prominently. Firstly, the most paramount in this respect is the importance of creating the needed capacity for capacity building. This means that there ought to be a national commitment and political will by all stakeholders, not only the Government, to create the needed capacity. Secondly, there is need for a ‘home-grown’ capacity building effort. 6 At the core of management capacity improvement in Zambia is the recognition of, and commitment to, the public service reform programme. It also calls for enhanced public sector capacity to analyse and implement appropriate policies for national development, in general, and poverty reduction, in particular.

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7 Implied in the above recommendations is the importance of adopting a more decentralised mode of planning and implementation through, inter-alia, the strengthening of the local government management system. The government has already made a principled commitment to these ideals through the Decentralisation Policy and the Decentralisation Implementation Programme. 8 The restructuring and rationalising of all government ministries and grant-aided institutions should be an equally important element in the Government’s public sector capacity enhancement effort. But such a mechanism would remain of limited value unless a supportive and effective management information system is established. 9 Capacity building of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) is cardinal to the success of planned interventions. Rapid and comprehensive restructuring of MoF within the context of the Public Service Reform Programme should, thus, constitute one of the priority interventions. 10 The Government’s institutional capacity to manage national development plans’ implementation processes depends on the existence of a highly motivated team of officials/managers that would provide policy and strategic direction at the senior level. The rules, norms, values and pay structures of the public sector as a whole need to be changed if capacity is to be built and retained. 11 Given the generally low utilisation rate of budgeted resources in some of the sectors during the Plan implementation, Government needs to work towards the identification of main constraints (institutional, procedural, human resource limitations, etc.) to budget execution and address these as a matter of urgency. This would allow off-budget resources to be better streamlined into sector planning and resource accountability system. 12 Effective reporting and monitoring of the activities of a National Development Plan are critical functions of delivery. Firstly, these processes provide essential data and insights for drawing lessons, priority setting and forward planning. Secondly, they offer the assurance that funds are used for agreed purposes. In order to improve upon the reporting and monitoring functions during R-SNDP, the following should constitute the main strategies: a. In monitoring both macro-and sector-level performance, the Government and CPs ought to use the performance indicators that are included in the National Plan. b. A common monitoring framework should be agreed upon between Government and all major stakeholders, including the country’s CPs, and the performance indicators should always be kept simple, specific, measurable, time-bound, achievable, realistic, and easily verifiable. c. Government should ensure that sector and project reporting and monitoring requirements under R-SNDP feed into the Plan’s overall reporting and monitoring system and that their timing is synchronized with key planning cycles, including MoF’s budget process and the Plan’s Annual Progress Reviews. d. In the spirit of the emerging stress on results-based management, impact monitoring should be strengthened. The strengthening of the MoF as well as the planning units of MPSAs is critical.

As conclusions and recommendations made till now indicate, all the recommendations above were still fully or partly relevant at the time of the final evaluation of the SNDP/R-SNDP, which is a strong lesson learned. The response to recommendations at Plan (SNDP/R-SNDP) level was quite adequate, while the implementation of recommendations was wanting, which is demonstrated by having a considerable overlap in findings and recommendations between the evaluation of FNDP and the SNDP/R-SNDP.

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6.5 Achievements against the Focus of 7NDP

The Plan departs from sectoral-based planning to an integrated (multi-sectoral) approach under the theme “Accelerating development efforts towards Vision 2030 without leaving anyone behind”. This is supported by five strategic areas or pillars:

• Economic diversification and job creation • Poverty and vulnerability reduction • Reducing developmental inequalities • Enhancing human development • Creating a conducive governance environment for a diversified and inclusive economy

The theme of the 7NDP is in line with those of the SNDP and R-SNDP, while the choice of paths to achieve the theme, or goal are different. All objectives are in line with conclusions and recommendations made in this report. Equally, the objectives of all the plans were in line with the Zambian aspirations as inscribed in the Vision 2030.

The focus on inclusive planning is strengthened, although findings show that the scope of stakeholders involved is still too narrow and that inclusion at a later stage, e.g. when acting on achievements or discussing unforeseen challenges. Hence there may be a need for further inclusion, and for mechanisms that ensure a full involvement both before, and after the implementation of a plan.

This evaluation shows that there was need to apply an inter-sectoral approach. Thus, the 7NDP has put in place systems for such an approach. They are, however, not regarded as sufficient, as interviews showed that they were rather applied at planning stage rather than at implementation and monitoring stages, where the synergy should be ensured and defined.

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7.0 Lessons Learned and Overall Recommendations

Specific conclusions and recommendations have been made for each of the KRAs. This chapter, therefore, concerns overall lessons learned and recommendations. They are paired to provide a background for a given recommendation.

Overall lessons learned and recommendations from this evaluation relate to the goals of the two Plans aiming at poverty reduction through “People Centred Growth and Economic Development” (R-SNDP) or “Sustained Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction” (SNDP).

It is overall concluded that there was minimal national growth and poverty reduction at household and/or individual level in the SNDP period 2011-2016 for reasons given below.

LESSONS LEARNED RECOMMENDATIONS The SNDP/R-SNDP had low consistency between: a) That planning builds on updated facts, e.g. the actual population size in given provinces and districts, actual mac- a) National goal of poverty reduction and interventions and ro-economic limitations and opportunities (e.g. unexploited budgets (considering the scope of poverty and type of as- export opportunities), enforcement of policies, needs for sistance required to address high poverty levels). market relevant tertiary education, needs for research and innovation while ensuring coherence between development b) Plan and budget allocation, e.g. no budget for develop- goal, KRAs and funds allocation for these. ment of the M&E initiatives described in R-SNDP.

c) Infrastructure development and budget allocations for equipment, staffing and maintenance for the new infrastructure. b) This includes setting realistic targets with regard to level of delivery, but also with regard to the number and or- d) Policy development and policy enforcement. Policy ef- der of planned achievements. Rather fully achieve a limited fectiveness can only be achieved with effective plan and ad- number of targets than under-perform in most KPIs. equate budget for enforcement of the policy.

e) Planned programmes and some activities conducted, e.g. establishment of new districts without having a budget for the same. c) This means that intentions (NDP goals and Vision 2030 goals) should align with the national capacity, as limited f) Reality as in the extent of the problem and the planned sector budgets, which are exposed to further cuts during targets. For example around 1% of the poor population was the financial year, and freezing of employment to the ser- covered by cash transfer, which likely had little effect on the vices established, are contrary to intentions. poverty situation.

g) The lack of consistency resulted in few targets met across all KRAs. d) Placing more emphasis on cross-sectoral thinking h) The inability to deliver adequately to national KPIs and inclusion of cross-cutting issues whether planning for is, among others, caused by lack of coherent thinking ac- macro-economy, sectors or internal capacity. knowledging the importance of other sectors and cross- cutting issues in achieving as planned i) Work in sector silos is ineffective and inefficient e) There is need for systems for full inter-sectoral collaboration at central, provincial and district level.

f) This will include a change in the financing system, as inter-sectoral activities will need own budget, possibly with a lead ministry.

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LESSONS LEARNED RECOMMENDATIONS j) The SNDP/R-SNDP seemed to have had little guid- g) The creation of new districts should be adequately ing importance for the political decisions made, not least planned for and sufficient resources allocated for in the an- during the R-SNDP period. During the R-SNDP there was nual Budget and Medium Term Expenditure Framework considerable spending on some activities not planned for, f) It may therefore be worth considering the relevance for example establishment of new district. The purpose of and use of Plans and whether MTEFs will be a better fi- having Plans was not clear for the implementing staff. nancial planning tool. Alternatively, make plans reflect the national financial capacity. g) Focus on infrastructure without budget for required equipment, staffing and maintenance made services to be i) With reference to Vision 2030, it is strongly recom- of low quality, where the infrastructure was operational. mended to plan for sustainable change in living conditions in terms of delivering fully functional infrastructure with the required equipment, staffing and maintenance budget. This includes roads some of which already needed maintenance. h) This sole focus on infrastructure resulted in a number of unfinished structures in terms of, apparently, stalled constructions across the country. j) The decentralisation was taken positively by the people k) Continued efforts in completing the decentralization. met at devolved level and they did their level best to re- However, this evaluation showed a need for the government structure the systems. staff to understand the design of the decentralization and to know the pace with which it will be rolled out (especially fiscal decentralization). There is therefore need for confined satisfaction of staff on decentralisation. l) There is still no M&E systems/arrangements in place o) Development of a coordinated national M&E strategy and available data are of questionable quality despite providing all details with regard to designing capacity re- strong and detailed recommendation in the evaluation of quirements with the view to enable evidence-based plan- the FNDP. ning. Such efforts should entail an annual national budget for M&E activities[1]. The Whole-of-Government M&E system to ensure that M&E functions are implemented at national, sector, provincial, district and sub-district levels. This system will need to be anchored on a stronger legislation (law). m) Attempts were made to remedy the situation, but the p) Estimate a period of 7-10 years for full capacity devel- missing or low quality data bear witness of the continued opment and roll-out. need for a common Whole-of-Government M&E system. n) Citizens and stakeholders do not feel informed about q) For easy sharing of data, it would be highly relevant governmental decisions. They are involved at planning lev- to develop a Knowledge Management System at the same el, but are then left in ignorance of the progress of ideas time since such defines who, across the scope of stake- proposed by them during consultations on the national holders (politicians, CPs, beneficiaries, media citizens etc.) Plan. shall know what, how and when. r) Development of policies was an issue raised in the a) Capacity development across all sectors and all levels FNDP evaluation and many have been formulated or been of implementers. As the above shows there is substantial revised. Very few, however, have been implemented as in- need for capacity development as defined by OECD/DAC: tended most often due to lack of adequate capacity includ- “The process by which individuals, groups and organisa- ing resources to fully implement them. tions, institutions and countries develop, enhance and organise their systems, resources and knowledge; all reflected in their abilities, individually and collectively, to perform functions, solve problems and achieve objectives”. This translates, among others, into formulation of effective systems and structures, development of tools, building of HR, employment of HR, investment in required equipment and establishment of adequate work environment.

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LESSONS LEARNED RECOMMENDATIONS s) Further, with change in governmental systems and b) Building of human capital can be done through: structures, e.g. decentralization, there was lack of clarity • Training among the governmental staff at devolved level over how • Peer Learning and when to implement this – and who should take a lead. • Mentoring • Twinning • Consultancy services • Provision of technical staff and staff secondments • Using national, regional or international professionals in the mentioned roles.

f) There is also need to undertake formal evaluations and/or reviews to appreciate the actual impact/achievements of the many policies implemented. g) Output level efforts (enablers) alone cannot yield h) When planning there is need to have clearly defined growth required at outcome and impact level targets at output, outcome and impact level, respectively, for all KRAs with KPIs matching the KRAs.

i) There should further be a clear link from output level results to the respective objectives and further to the goal. A Theory of Change or Results Framework clearly articulating how the planned impacts and outcomes will come about. When resources are limited then, these should be allocated to projects with the highest rate of social return. Spreading resources too thinly led to low productivity and delays in project completion.

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ANNEX 1:

List of Literature

No. Publisher Author(s) Title and Year 1 AfDB - Independent Development Evaluation 2 Govt. of Botswana - Statistics Botswana 3 Development Bank of Zambia - Annual Report 2015 4 GRZ Central Statistical Office National Accounts; Gross Domestic Product Report 2014 & 2015; November 2016 5 GRZ Central Statistical Office 2010 Supply, Use and Input Output Tables; November 2017 6 GRZ Central Statistical Office National Accounts; Provincial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2015 7 GRZ Central Statistical Office The Monthly, September 2017 8 GRZ Central Statistical Office The Monthly, January, February & March 2018 9 GRZ Central Statistical Office Post-Harvest Survey (2011-2012 season, 2012-2013 season, 2013-2014 season, 2014-2015 season) 10 GRZ Central Statistical Office Zambia Labour Force Survey Report (2008, 2012, 2014) 11 GRZ Central Statistical Office Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Report (1996, 1998, 2003; 2004, 2006-2010, 2015) 12 GRZ Central Statistical Office 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Report 13 GRZ Central Statistical Office Zambia Labour Force Survey report (2012) Ministry of Labour and Social Security 14 GRZ Energy Regulation Board Annual reports and Statistical Bulletins, 2014, 2015, 2016 15 GRZ Ministry of Agriculture and Annual Reports 2015, 2016 Livestock 16 GRZ Ministry of Agriculture and Zambia National Agriculture Investment Plan (NAIP) Livestock 2014-2018 17 GRZ/UNICEF Ministry of Education, Global Initiative on Science, Vocational Training OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN and Early Education 18 GRZ Dr. Mabel Milimo/MOF Report on The Study Assessing the Extent to Which Gender Has Been Mainstreamed in The Sixth National Development Plan of Zambia 2011-2015 (2011) 19 GRZ Mwila, A. et al, Energy Impact of Load Shedding on Small Scale Enterprises, Regulation Board 2017 20 GRZ Ministry of Tourism Annual reports 2014, 2015, 2016 21 GRZ Ministry of Tourism Strategic Plan 2014-2016 22 GRZ Ministry of Tourism Tourism Policy for Zambia 23 GRZ Ministry of Transport ICT Survey Report – Households and individuals, & Communication, 2015 Central Statistics Office, Zambia Information and Communication Technology Authority 24 GRZ Ministry of Transport ICT sector annual report 2013, 2015 and Communication, Ministry of Information and Broadcasting Services 25 GRZ Central Statistical Office Zambia in Figures 172 26 GRZ MOF 2011-2013 Annual Progress Reports DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

No. Publisher Author(s) Title and Year 27 GRZ MNDP 2014-2016 Annual Progress Reports 28 GRZ MOF Fifth National Development Plan (2006) 29 GRZ MOF Revised Sixth NDP (2014) 30 GRZ MOF Ministerial Statement on the Financial Report for the Year Ended 31st December 2010 31 GRZ MOF Ministerial Statement on the Financial Report for the Year Ended 31st December 2011/2012/2013/2014/ 2015/2016 32 GRZ MNDP Annual Economic Report, 2011/2012/ 2013/2014/2015/2016 33 GRZ MOF SNDP/R-SNDP Annual Progress Reports (2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016) 34 GRZ MOF Economic Stabilisation and Growth Programme – Zambia Plus, 2017 35 GRZ MOF 2011-2013 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and the 2011 Budget: Green Paper, August 2010 36 GRZ MOF 2014-2016 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and the 2014 Budget: Green Paper, August 2013 37 GRZ MoGCD National Gender Policy, 2014 38 GRZ MOH Expanded Programme on Immunisation Vaccination Lusaka, Zambia. 2009 39 GRZ MOH National Health Strategic Plan 2016-2021. Lusaka, Zambia. 2017 40 GRZ MOH National Health Strategic Plan 2011-2015. Lusaka, Zambia. 2011 41 GRZ NWASCO National Water and Sanitation Council annual reports, Lusaka, Zambia. 2011-2015 42 GRZ National Road Funds Agency Annual reports 2015, 2016 43 GRZ Office of the Auditor General Management of Environmental Degradation Caused by Mining Activities in Zambia, 2014 44 GRZ Road Development Agency Annual reports 2013, 2014 45 GRZ Rural Electrification Annual report 2016 Authority 46 GRZ Rural Electrification Rural Electrification Master Plan 2008-2030, 2009 Authority 47 GRZ - Zambia 2016 Human Rights Report 48 GRZ - Zambia Vision 2030 (2006) 49 GRZ - Zambia 2014-2018 Social Protection Policy 50 GRZ Rural Electrification Rural Electrification Master Plan 2008-2030, 2009 Authority 51 GRZ Zambia Information and Annual reports, 2013, 2015, 2016 Communication Technology Authority 52 GRZ Zambia Tourism Agency Tourism Statistical Digest 2013, 2014, 2015 53 GRZ ZEMA Annual report, 2016 54 IAPRI Alexander Kefi Shula and The fisheries sector in Zambia: Status, Management Rhoda Mofya-Mukuka and Challenges, 2015 55 IAPRI Antony Chapoto et al A long history of low productivity in Zambia: Is it time to do away with blanket recommendations 2016 56 IAPRI Antony Chapoto, Brian Zambia Agriculture Status Report, 2016 Chisanga

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No. Publisher Author(s) Title and Year 57 IAPRI Auckland N. Kuteya et al An in-depth analysis of Zambia’s agricultural budget – Distributional Effects and Opportunity Cost, 2016 58 IAPRI Cliff Dlamini et al Load shedding and charcoal use in Zambia: what are the implications on forest resources?, 2016 59 ILO Claire Harasty, Miranda Fiscal Space for Social Protection and the SDGs, Kwong 2017 Per Ronnås 60 ILO Isabel Ortiz, Matthew Inclusive growth and productive employment in Cummins, Zambia (2015) Kalaivani Karunanethy 61 Indaba Agricultural Policy - Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey, 2015 Survey Research Institute (IAPRI) Report; February 2016 62 International Monetary Fund - Article IV Consultation (January 2006; January 2008; January 2010; July 2012; January 2014; June 2015; October 2017) 63 International Trade Centre - Trade Map database (continuously updated); www. intracen.org 64 International ITU Measuring the Information Society Reports 2012 and Telecommunication Union 2016 65 JICA T-COBSI Newsletter Learning new technology means nothing without practicing, 2015 66 London Metals Exchange - www.lme.com 67 Ministry of Commerce, Trade - Annual Report 2016 (published 2017) and Industry 68 NAO Msisya, A. The Key Findings of the Report of Auditor General on the Road Projects Under the Road Development Agency for the Period January 2012 to December, 2015 from the Civil Engineering and Technical Design Perspective and their Financial Implication”, 2017 69 REA Geoffrey Musonda Status of Rural Electrification in Zambia – PowerPoint presentation, 2017 70 REA REA Annual report 2016 71 72 Southern Africa Institute for Libby Cha and Mira Ramesh Review of Social Protection in Zambia and Namibia, Policy Research 2017 73 Tourism Council of Zambia Tourism Council of Zambia A Presentation to the Business Regulatory Review Agency, 2017 74 UN Dept. of Economic and Social UN E-government Survey 2012 and 2016 Affairs 75 UNDP - Human Development Report – 2012, 2014, 2016 76 UNDP - Millennium Development Goals Progress Report 2008. Lusaka, Zambia. 2008 77 UNDP - Millennium Development Goals Progress Report 2013. Lusaka, Zambia. 2013 78 UNESCO - Zambia Education Policy Review: Paving the Way for SDG 4 – Education 2030 79 UNICEF - Situation analysis of women and children. Lusaka: Zambia. 2014 80 UNICEF Annual Report, Zambia – 2013, 2016 81 University of Zambia Augustine MULOLWA, PhD Land Governance Assessment Zambia country report, 2016

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No. Publisher Author(s) Title and Year 82 Unknown J. Kagin, J. Taylor, I. Rojas Strengthening Coherence between Agricultural Production and Social Protection in Zambia: Local Economy-wide Simulation Analysis, 2017 83 World Bank - Annual Report Zambia , 2016 84 World Bank - Jobs Diagnostics, 2017 85 World Bank Group - Doing Business 2018 86 World Bank Atsushi Iimi, Ben Gericke Output- and Performance Based Road Contracts and Agricultural Production – Evidence from Zambia, 2017 87 World Bank Dino Merotto Zambia Job Diagnostics, volume 1, 2017 88 World Bank ResearchICTAfrica.net Zambia ICT Gap Analysis, 2016 89 World Bank Sudha Bala Krishnan and Jobs in value chains Zambia, Opportunities in Teresa Peterburs Agribusiness, 2017 90 World Bank - Zambia Project Profiles, 2018 91 World Bank Group - World Development Indicators database 92 World Association of - www.waitro.org Industrial and Technological Research Associations (WAITRO)

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ANNEX 2:

Full Scope of Evaluation (Extract from Terms of Reference)

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ANNEX 3:

A stylized Macro-Sectoral Model guiding the formulation of evaluation questions

Rationale of the Model

A stylized macro-sectoral Model can be used to inform the evaluation process of an overall Plan, sector strategies and macroeconomic and sector policies. The Model captures the essence of how the national economy works, what parameters are critical, and it indicates the Key Success Factors of a national Plan and its implementation.

The content of the model is characterized by: • Being anchored on the National Accounts – in particular the National Accounts of Zambia; • Following the conventional Economic Circuit presentation of how an economy works; • Zooming in on sectors whereas the macro-economy is the sum of Value Added in each sector; and • Incorporating the conventional aggregates of GDP, Population, Employment, Savings and Investment, Government Revenue and Expenditure, Public Debt, the Balance of Current Account.

Models of this nature are effectively estimated to become econometric models, Input-Output models and Computable General Equilibrium models. The conceptual model can be used to guide one’s evaluation effort for a Plan with regard to: What parameters does one have to look at, what is more or less important - which implicitly enables establishment of a hierarchy, and what are the constraints experienced at sector level and macro-economic level?

What is particularly adding value to the Model is the view that output is the product between the resources allocated to a sector and the productivity of these resources, the latter being determined by processes and practices and by exogenous factors over which the sector may have little or no control. When evaluating an NDP there is need to systematically assess resource allocation in terms of investments and inter-sectoral linkages, and productivity issues; which cover analysis of effectiveness and efficiency. Given that productivity is an issue in Zambia, this has to be assessed at various levels of national operations. At the macro-economic level, no text explains the criterion of relevance. However, in macro-economy relevance shows as sustainability, which is, therefore, an important criterion.

The Model is presented in the format of a flow chart, contained on a single page. Many economic and social dynamics are at play, some of which cannot be included on a single page. Hence the single- page flow chart, therefore, contains the key components of such an analysis. The chart illustrates the complexity of national analysis and planning.

177 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN rts Impo Value Added Added Value Hotels Share in GDP: (2010) 1.6% (2016) 1.5% 159 Public Sector INTEREST RATES INTEREST Account Wages Wages EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE Borrowing Requirement GOV. CURRENT MONEY SUPPLY BOP: Current Interest on Public Public on Interest Debt EXCHANGE RATE INFLATION Value Added Added Value Admin, Public & Health Educ. in GDP: Share 13% (2010) (2016) 13.3% PUBLIC Other SAVINGS INVESTMENT Services Services Value Added Requirement Share in GDP: GDP: in Share (2010) 28.1% (2016) 31.6% GOVERNMENT Public DebtStock: Payments items: Other Balance of Balance Other Domestic Interest on External External on Interest Debt Public/Private entities) (of Zambia Payments and for Receipts Transport Services Grants from Donors Remittances coming fromand going to abroad expatriated Profits External PublicSector Borrowing        E ECONOMY WORKS ti t Service delivery (quantity & (quantity delivery Service health, education, quality): agricultural/industrial Services Services Financial Value Added Added Value Share in GDP: Share (2010) 4.1% (2016) 5.2% Goods Import duties duties Import VAT and Excise Excise and VAT Grants (donors) (donors) Grants Non-tax revenue Export Demand for Exchange Rate Exchange of Productivity producers Quality Standards Transport Costs in cycles and Trends World Demand Value Added Transport in GDP: Share (2010) 5.9% (2016) 4.6% WORLD MARKET WORLD MARKET PRICES: intermediate/capital goods      GOVERNMENT REVENUE RAL MODEL: HOW TH HOW MODEL: RAL Projects Investment Investment Demand from Value Added Added Value Construction in GDP: Share (2010) 10% (2016) 10.9% Number tourist arrivals tourist Number of stayDays in Zambia Attractions Rate Exchange competitiveness Price countries Zambia-other Quality Standards Marketing Transport Costs Income growth key in countries Revenue from Tourism          HHLD CONSUMPTION Imports of Capital Goods Imports of Intermediate ofImports Intermediate Goods Imports ofConsumption Goods Agro-industry Agro-industry Metals Other Value Added Added Value Manufacturing    in GDP: Share (2010) 7.6% (2016) 7.3% FORCE GROWTH rowth g POPULATION & LABOUR Quarrying Copper (formal) Coal Informal mining Value Added Added Value Mining:     GDP: in Share (2010) 12.8% (2016) 12% ate) r ASSETS x PRODUCTIVITY est = r te in

Corporate Income Tax alue Added Added alue Water Supply Supply Water in GDP: Share (2010) 0.2% (2016) 0.2% V ectationsfutureon GDP (amountand conditions,e.g. DISPOSABLE HHLD HHLD INCOMEDISPOSABLE p Personal Income Tax/Social Security FERTILITY RATE & & RATE FERTILITY Business Environment Business LIFE EXPECTANCY Commercial Banks Credit to Private Private to Credit Banks Commercial Ex DETERMINANTS OF PRODUCTIVITY: OFPRODUCTIVITY: DETERMINANTS Business cycles (affecting capacity utilization) capacity (affecting cycles Business rainfall Standardization health,motivation/work ethic, corruption) continuousproductivity improvement, QMS, efficiency) energy management, maintenance Value Added 1. Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship 1. TEVET, flexibility, skills, technical (literacy, Labour 2. Extension services(agriculture and industry) 3. Innovation and Process Product 4. Management systems (time management, 5. Strategies & Corporate Organization 6. 7. quality) service & (quantity Infrastructure 8. Relative 9. prices 10. 11. Electricity Electricity FLOW CHART OF A STYLIZED MACRO-SECTO STYLIZED A OF CHART FLOW Value Added Added Value Share in GDP: in Share (2010) 1.7% (2016) 3.7% Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan Final Evaluation: Detailed Report Report Detailed Evaluation: Final Plan Development National (Revised) Sixth GDP & SAVINGS SAVINGS IN HOUSING IN CORPORATE INVESTMENT AND FOREIGN AND HHLD SAVINGS HHLD PRODUCTIVE PRODUCTIVE (amount, sector value for money INVESTMENTS EMPLOYMENT natural resources natural procurement) and depletion of forest depletion HHLD INVESTMENTHHLD PRIVATEDOMESTIC resources and other technology adoption, allocation and capital appropriate intensity, Value Added Added Value Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing in GDP: Share (2010) 9.4% 4.7% (2016)

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Brief Introduction to the Reading of the Chart

To help facilitating reading of the chart the components included are briefly explained below.

Value Added

The core assumption is that value added is the product between assets and the productivity of these assets. Whether assets are equipment, buildings, land or mineral resources, some investments have to be made to enable generating value added. However, the transformation of assets into output is also determined by factors driving productivity such as labour skills, availability and quality of infrastructure, technological process impacting on product and process innovation.

Inter-sectoral dependencies exist: Mining requires power and water as well as manufactured goods and services; Agro-industry requires inputs from agriculture and livestock production, and some manufacturing requires inputs from mining and quarrying.

Further, in some sectors is driven by investment demand from corporate enterprises, households (housing) and public investments.

According to National Accounts, value added in public administration is the sum of wages paid independent of productivity considerations.

Value added in hotels is partly driven by the number of international tourist arrivals and the number of days these tourists are spending in Zambia.

Investment

Investments imply the existence of savings from various types and levels of savings as follows:

• Household Savings are the difference between Household Disposable Income – some of which comes from remittances from abroad and subsidies from government -- transfers and Household Expenditure. • Corporate Investment is financed by corporate savings (equals retained profits) plus bank credits to the private sector. • Public investment is a policy variable. However, public investment is constrained by Governments Savings (i.e. Government Revenues minus Current Expenditure), and by the capacity of the Government to borrow (domestic and internal).

The capacity to invest is determined by external factors for example:

• Government interest payments against future domestic revenue mobilization. • Corporate investment depends on trends in the economy against the business environment.

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Public Finance

Public finance consists of national revenue and current expenditures.

Government Revenue originates from direct taxes on household income and on profits from indirect taxes (VAT, customs and excise) and other sources of income, including grants.

Government Current Expenditures includes salaries, interest payments, subsidies, goods and services bought to operate services and to maintain infrastructure. These funds are functionally allocated to defence/Security, Justice, Foreign Affairs, Education, Health, Productive Sectors, Culture, Sports etc. Expenditure on Health and Education contribute to the productivity of the citizens. Defence and Justice are conditions sine qua non to a society and to an enabling environment.

Inflation

Inflation impacts on: a) Household consumption through a lower real value of household income as well as because of changes in relative prices; b) Investment through real interest rates; c) Government revenue, and d) Export competitiveness through the exchange rate.

Imports and Exports

Some household and government final consumption goods, most investments in capital goods and many intermediate inputs and services in the production process cannot be sourced locally. Therefore, there is need for import. In order to pay for these imports, the country needs to earn foreign currency by exporting goods and services, remittances from abroad and donor grants. Exports depend on world demand, transport costs, producer prices (relative to those of competitors), and quality standards of goods produced in Zambia.

If export earnings - and other sources of foreign currency - do not suffice, then the country runs a Balance of Current Account deficit which needs to be financed by short term and long-term capital inflows. However, if the country has poor creditworthiness and is therefore constrained in its access to foreign capital then imports are in turn constrained.

Demography

Population growth is formed by the difference between birth rate and mortality rate, which further determines the population pyramid and therefore the population of working age. Finally, the size of the labour force depends on the labour force participation rate (the percentage of the population of working age that is economically active).

Moreover, population growth and the population pyramid are factors influencing the national economy as both impact on the structure of household consumption demand and thus implicitly on the household ability to and interest in savings.

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Poverty

The poverty profile has not traditionally been integrated in econometric models. However, Applied General Equilibrium models, which model income and expenditure of various socio-economic groups, have been developed for almost 40 years.

Consistent with the basic assumption that Value Added is the product of assets and productivity of those assets, the income (before transfers and subsidies) of socio-economic groups is a function of their endowments and the productivity of these endowments.

Implications for evaluating the SNDP and R-SNDP and incorporating lessons learnt in future planning exercises

The conceptual Model potentially represents the way the Zambian economy operates - making abstraction of missing variables, due to issues being overlooked or because the model must be kept manageable. The assumption on the role of productivity is a powerful starting point for analysis and evaluation. Furthermore, if one assumes that poverty is related to assets – access to physical assets including Land and Productivity of these Assets – determining factors are skills, health and nutrition, social insurance, gender discrimination, extension services, infrastructure, environmental constraints, marketing and other processes – then the Model also has the potential for guiding the evaluation of pro-poor strategies and policies.

Question-1: Assuming that feasible and sustainable paths for strong growth and development -- and for poverty reduction – do exist, then the first question is whether the conceived Plan underpins one such development among the universe of feasible and desired paths. Is the implicit Model behind the Plan -- and its objectives – compatible with the “true” Model of the economy? Or have some critical factors/parameters been overlooked? If so, why and how?

Question-2: If the Plan is indeed feasible and robust, then the next question is whether the actual implementation of the Plan in terms of e.g. MTEF, Annual Budget, Sector Strategies, public procurement etc., is compatible with the path envisaged in the Plan. If not, then the Plan has been compromised.

If the authorities do not implement the Plan, then there may be a political rationale – valid or not - behind this variant implementation scenario. The Planning authority’s role is then to quantify how much the Government is giving up in terms of growth, transformation, poverty reduction and other development objectives in order to satisfy a variant agenda. A significant trade-off may exist between the planned outcomes and the outcomes of the variant agenda. How large is that trade-off? Without a simulation Model, this trade-off cannot be adequately substantiated.

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Key Evaluation questions (non-exhaustive) can be derived from and inspired by the conceptual Model:

1. Is the Plan supported by an economic model that allows planners to explore alternative scenarios? 2. Does the structure of the Plan clearly distinguish what is an input to an economic process and what is an output/outcome? Inputs are resources and critical services delivered (energy, water, transport infrastructure, irrigation, agricultural and industrial services). 3. Does the Plan clearly spell out inter-sectoral linkages and the constraints? For instance, mining and electricity generation (especially that in Zambia, the mining consumes over half of electricity generated) 4. Does the Plan pay sufficient attention to the development of value chains? 5. Does the Plan clearly distinguish between what the Government can control and what the Government can only facilitate (with uncertain outcomes)? 6. Does the Plan integrate the issue of resilience and macroeconomic stability? This concerns anticipating the impact of cycles in mineral prices, rainfall, World Growth, cycles in donor funding, FDI, tourism, sudden increases in wages in the public sector unrelated to productivity. 7. In particular, has the Plan integrated the twin impacts of lower rainfall on irrigation and electricity generation? And envisaged mitigation strategies? 8. Does the Plan acknowledge that inflation – in particular double-digit inflation – affects household expenditure decisions, income distribution, annual budget estimates, interest rates and exchange rate? 9. Has the Plan integrated the scenarios of building up excessive Public Debt and debt service on future capacity for Government’s recurrent and capital expenditure? Have the Plan targets for corporate private sector investments integrated the possible crowding out of credit for the private sector by borrowing requirements by the public sector? 10. Does the Plan sufficiently integrate the issue of excessive population growth which puts pressure on the budget, on demand for health and education services, and on housing, leaving insufficient savings for infrastructure investments and for directly productive investments? 11. Does the Plan sufficiently address the issue of deforestation and its links to agricultural productivity and sources of household energy consumption? 12. Does Plan formulation use an integrated poverty reduction strategy which facilitates coordination of initiatives? 13. Did Plan formulation suffer from insufficient critical data allowing to develop – with a degree of confidence – the base scenario for sector growth and GDP growth? 14. Whereas setting ambitious goals is an acceptable practice, does the Sixth Plan and Vision 2030 have sufficient arguments to advance the preferred and high scenario growth rates over a long period, growth rates which would be considered as unrealistic elsewhere? 15. Did the central authority responsible for Plan formulation face inadequate information inputs from line ministries and provincial administrations, and this for key sectors? 16. Did the Plan formulation integrate the impact of subsidies on allocation of resources and diversification decisions of farmers, in particular? 17. Do scenarios consider downside risks stemming from the human factor, including entrepreneurship, work ethic, motivation, Leadership styles? 18. Does the Plan sufficiently focus on the transformation of the economy, in general, and diversification of the economy specifically as a condition for sustainably graduating on the development ladder?

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This includes crop diversification, energy sources diversification, mining sector diversification, industrial sector diversification. 19. Considering how important well-functioning industrial zones are for accelerated industrialization, does the Plan formulation pay sufficient attention to this area and is the performance of industrial zones in Zambia well documented and analysed? 20. Similarly, considering the important role that SOEs have historically played for successful initial take-off of industrialization in some countries (e.g. Japan), do planners and relevant experts inform the Plan formulation and inform Zambian authorities involved in decision-making regarding SOEs policy? 21. Does the Plan incentivize diversification towards sectors which are both transformative and are marked by lower intrinsic capital intensity? 22. Does the Plan consider appropriate allocation between capital expenditure and operations expenditure in public-funded infrastructure projects, in health and education, based on realistic norms? 23. Considering that production and Value Added depends not only on physical assets but also on Productivity, does the Plan acknowledge the impact of possible deficits in the quality of critical services (e.g. health and in particular education) as well as weaknesses of management models for infrastructure (dams, irrigation projects, maintenance of transport infrastructure). 24. Is the sector allocation envisaged in the Plan – the prioritisation – documented by feasibility studies and data on private and social rates of return on investment for major projects? 25. 25. Has the Plan integrated past lessons learnt in terms of delays in the release of funds, pitfalls of public procurement, other experiences related to Value-for-Money, changes in priorities (i.e. differences between the percentage share allocation of funds in the Plan and the percentage share allocation by MTEF and Annual Budget) and other implementation bottlenecks? 26. In general, how are recommendations resulting from M&E exercises impacting on future Plan formulation practices and implementation frameworks?

Other relevant questions:

1. Does the Planning authority develop a priority list for policy reforms in function of their anticipated positive impact on the Business Environment? 2. Does the Planning authority provide intellectual input to policy reform formulation? 3. Does the Planning authority participate in RIAs? 4. Does the Planning authority share insights, views and country experiences with other Ministries on the dos and don’ts of planning, strategy formulation and reform policies, including Labour Market policies which promote productivity? 5. Considering that policy reforms and sector strategies are formulated, approved and implemented over cycles, which do not match (Investment) Planning cycles, and considering that policy reforms/ strategies impact on the productivity/efficiency of investments, does the Plan formulation then integrate the downside risks of untimely implementation of these reforms? 6. Does the Planning authority have the right mix of professionals? 7. Does the Planning authority experience excessive staff turnover and rotation affecting institutional capacity (development)? 8. 8. Is the Planning authority strongly positioned within the Government apparatus to command commitment and effective collaboration, in particular with Ministry of Finance and line Ministries controlling vast budgetary resources?

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ANNEX 4:

Macro-Sectoral Analysis

1. Introduction

The World Bank classifies Zambia as a lower middle-income economy. Income distribution however, is highly unequal and stark differences exist between the Provinces. Income differences (2015) are such that the Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces could have been located in the Ukraine or Honduras as per the GDP per capita criterion whereas the other Provinces could be located in Mali, Chad or Nepal.

In some aspects Zambia has achieved socio-economic transformation, such as the (high) investment rate, electricity consumption per capita, fertilizer consumption per ha, life expectancy at birth. However, the high investment rate and electricity consumption can be explained by high capital and energy intensity of the mining sector.

In other areas the transformation has yet to be completed: manufactured exports as a percentage of total exports, the contribution of manufacturing to GDP, the density of roads (km per 1000 population), tertiary education enrolment. Zambia is near the threshold for secondary education enrolment. The picture is mixed with regards to agricultural yields: country-wide the yields are low although commercial farmers achieve significant yields. For sorghum and millet, the yields are low whereas for maize the average yield is comparable to what Europe achieved in the first agricultural revolution. Urban population (as a share of total population) is somewhat below the average of middle income countries. The population density of the city of Lusaka is rather low (5,467/km2), indication that Lusaka develops horizontally rather than vertically.

Goals and Strategies of National Plans

The theme of the SNDP has been “Sustained economic growth and poverty reduction”. This was to be achieved through accelerated infrastructure and human development, enhanced economic growth and diversification and promotion of rural development. The distinction between outcome and inputs is thus clear.

The strategies of the Revised SNDP included Infrastructure Development -- an input -- Employment and Job Creation – an output --, Rural Development and Human Development – rather an input.

How did the goals and strategies evolve over time?

The goals of the First NDP had been diversification of the economy to make it less dependent on the copper industry, narrowing the gap between urban and rural population by increasing the productivity of traditional agriculture, building up the economic and social infrastructure, bringing about a substantial increase in the range of social services available to the people.

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The Second NDP sought to continue the building up of the country’s economic and social infrastructure while at the same time laying the foundations for a more balanced economic development of the country.

The theme of the Fifth NDP (2006-2010) had been “Broad Based Wealth and Job Creation through Citizenry Participation and Technological Advancement”. The strategic focus was “Economic Infrastructure and human resources development”.

The theme of the current Seventh NDP is “Accelerating development efforts towards the Vision 2030 without leaving anyone behind”. The key outcomes include economic diversification and job creation, poverty and vulnerability reduction, reduced developmental inequalities, enhanced human development and an enhanced governance environment for a diversified and inclusive economy. The Plan has adopted Strategic Objectives which are a) an Inclusive and Diversified Economy, b) Environmental and Social Sustainability, c) Competitiveness and Innovation, d) Strengthening of Mechanisms and Capacities.

Clearly, in spite of a paradigm change in the 1980s (evidenced by privatization and liberalization) and the advent of new challenges (e.g. climate change) and trends (technological progress and globalization), the long-term objectives for Zambia have, unsurprisingly, NOT changed.

The Fifth NDP and subsequent Plans are underpinned by the strategic documents Vision-2030 (launched in 2006). The aspiration of the Zambian people is to be a prosperous middle-income nation. Considering that Zambia is today already a lower middle-income country – as per the World Bank classification of economy – the target is really a tripling of per capita income compared to the base year. This is envisaged to be achieved through higher economic growth, and, a decline of the population growth rate to 0.8% by 2030. Vision-2030 proposes three scenarios: a Baseline scenario of 6% real GDP growth, an Optimistic scenario of stepwise increasing real GDP growth to 11% (with 10 successive years of double digit real growth), a preferred scenario of continuously increasing real GDP growth reaching 15% by 2030 (with 13 successive years of double digit real growth).

How realistic are double-digit GDP growth rates knowing that a real growth rate of 10% allows GDP to double within 8 years? Among the 201 countries and territories covered by the World Development Indicators (source: World Bank 2016; calculations by the author):

• 77 have never experienced double digit growth; • 84 have experienced one or two successive years of double digit growth often following a poor year for agriculture); • 22 have experienced 3 or 4 successive years of double digit growth; • 11 have enjoyed 5 successive years of double digit growth; • 7 have seen 6 or more successive years of double digit growth (9 years by Singapore, 10 years by Turkmenistan and Equatorial Guinea).

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Whereas setting bold objectives is good practice, Vision-2030 has sinned with its optimistic scenario; this is not unlike Zambia’s first plans which were not based on a) realistic projections of the macroeconomic and fiscal circumstances that were likely to prevail during implementation, nor integrated b) the management weaknesses than could be anticipated through candid analysis.

Incidentally, Zambia currently operates under the Economic Stabilization and Growth Programme Zambia Plus (2017-2019). The ESGP serves as the MTEF and is an anchor to the Seventh NDP. The ESGP has 5 pillars:

• Restoring credibility of the budget by minimizing unplanned expenditures and halting the accumulation of arrears; • Enhancing domestic resources mobilization and refocusing of public spending on core public sector mandates; • Improving economic and fiscal governance by raising the levels of accountability and transparency in the allocation and use of public finances; • Ensuring greater economic stability, growth and job creation through policy consistency to raise confidence for sustained private sector investment;

Scaling-up Government social protection programmes to shield the most vulnerable in the society from negative effects of the programme.

If anything, the ESGP acknowledges that the outcome of the SNDP/R-SNDP had fallen short of the targets. The macroeconomic outlook of ESGP settles for 3.9% of GDP growth in 2017, 4.6% in 2018 and 5.2% in 2019, well below the scenario of Vision-2030.

2. The areas of investigation

The present chapter takes a macro-sectoral view of the Zambian economy and the achievements over the Sixth Plan period (2011-2016). As one proceeds with the analysis it becomes evident that the Planning experience has been mixed. Could Zambia have skipped the exercise and simply proceeded with an MTEF? Do the positive aspects of the SNDP/R-SNDP offset the negatives? The answer to that question very much depends on the weights which the analyst shall attribute to each individual criterion.

The sections hereafter zoom in on various aspects of development and development planning and enable an assessment of the SNDP/R-SNDP, essentially at the macro-sectoral level. The following questions shall thus be investigated:

19. What has been GDP growth in Zambia from an historical perspective? 20. How have investment and productivity fared? 21. How does productivity in Zambia compare to productivity in other economies? 22. How has labour productivity evolved since Independence? 23. What was growth performance during the Sixth Plan period? 24. To what extent has Planning enabled Zambia to become more resilient to cycles and external/ exogenous shocks?

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25. What were the achievements during the Sixth Plan period (KPI targets and outcomes)? 26. How much does a planning process cost? 27. To what extent have Plan, MTEF and Annual Budget been correlated? 28. How have public investment and public expenditure on health and education fared during the Plan period? 29. How have the different economic sectors contributed to economic growth? 30. Is diversification away from maize succeeding? 31. Has the poverty profile changed? 32. Have regional disparities diminished? 33. Have jobs been created? 34. Who saves? 35. What have been the trends observed in the last 2-3 years, in the Districts or communities (and this in a wide range of issues of planning outcomes and quality of life)? 36. In the light of the SNDP/R-SNDP achievements against targets what has worked well and what has not worked so well with the Planning and Implementation processes?

The method used is data mining, i.e. a process applied to discover patterns in data sets.

2.1. GDP growth, investment and productivity

Table 1 confirms two facts:

• With the exception of the period 2002 to 2012, investment productivity has been low (and below the median observation for a representative sample of countries). The period 2002-2012 constituted sort of a catching-up period. • With population growth hovering around 3% throughout the period, per capita GDP growth was often virtually nil or negative until the Transitional NDP. During the Revised SNDP per capita growth was marginal and disappointing.

Table 1: investment productivity in Zambia historically reviewed Average GDP Investment rate Apparent invest- Average popula- period Plan growth (%) (% of GDP) ment productivity tion growth (p.a. -1 -2 (3)=(1)/(2) %) 1965 16.6% high 3.1% 1966-1971 1st Plan 1.6% Above 25% Less than 0.1 3.2% 1972-1976 2nd Plan 3.7% Above 25% Less than 0.15 3.5% 1977-1978 -2.0% Negative 3.4% 1979-1983 3rd Plan 0.3% Approx. 17% Close to 0 3.4% 1984-1988 2.20 Approx. 17% Less than 0.15 3.1% 1989-1993 4th Plan 0.7% Below 15% Less than 0.1 2.6% 1994-2001 -1.1% 13.1% Negative 2.8% 2002-2005 TNDP 6.7% 25.1% 0.267 2.7% 2006-2010 5th Plan 8.7% 22.2% 0.392 2.8% 2011-2012 6th Plan 6.6% 26.4% 0.25 3% 2013-2016 R 6th Plan 4.1% 32.9% 0.125 3% 2017 7th Plan 3.8% (est.) na na na Sources: World Development Reports (World Bank), IMF (Article IV Consultations), CSO, World Development Indicators (World Bank). Calculations by the author

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How does productivity in Zambia compare to performance in other countries? Using the World Development Indicators database (source: World Bank) benchmarks have been calculated. In the Figure below, the horizontal axis shows Capital per person employed, in USD. The vertical axis shows GDP per person employed (USD). For 2011, Zambia’s GDP per person employed was estimated at 9,668 USD at Purchasing Power Parity.

Capital per person employed is less easy to compute for Zambia because of insufficiencies in the National Accounts (GDP by expenditure). However, for the 6th Plan period conditions one can guestimate it to be at least 24,300 USD (if higher, then the observation point would move to the right). Therefore, the observation point for Zambia is assumed to be (24,300; 9,668), marked by a STAR in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: GDP per person employed (2011), cross-country analysis for 86 countries

The observation points for 86 countries suggest not only a positive correlation between Capital intensity (the horizontal axis) and labour productivity (the vertical axis), they also suggest the existence of a productivity – or production – frontier over the range of capital intensities (from the lowest to the highest). Now, considering the location of the Zambia “star”, one can conclude that the Zambian economy operates below the hypothetical productivity frontier and certainly below the productivity of countries with a similar capital intensity. HOW FAR BELOW? If the assumption of Zambian capital intensity somehow stands, then one may assert that Zambia operates some 50-66% below the productivity possibility frontier. If actual capital intensity were higher, then the distance from the frontier would be even larger (up to 80% below the frontier).

To complete the evidence on productivity, labour productivity has been projected in Figure 2. The chart shows how labour productivity fell from Independence up to 1998, regardless of Planning. Remarkably also, labour productivity has stagnated since 2012.

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Figure-2: historically trend in labour productivity (GDP per person employed)

Data source: World Development Indicators (World Bank), calculations by the author

How has GDP growth performed, specifically during the Sixth Plan period? Table 2 informs that:

• Real GDP growth has exceeded the target in the year 2012 only; • Growth has been disappointing during the R-SNDP period; • IMF and Ministry of Finance projections have been overoptimistic, except for 2012; • The Annual Progress Reports systematically got it wrong in estimating previous year performance; in fact, the APR has generally overestimated growth, except for 2012.

Table 2: GDP growth targets and actual performance

item 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Target SNDP >6% >6% >6% >7% >7% Target R-SNDP >7% >7% >7% >7% Revised targets 7% 5% Vision 2030 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% Projections (by source) IMF Jan2010 6% 6.20% IMF July2012 7.70% 8.30% 7.80% 8% 7.90% IMF Jan2014 6% 7.30% 7.50% 7.60% IMF June2015 5.60% 6.20% 2011-2013 Green Paper 6.40% 6.60% 6.70% 2014-2016 Green Paper 7.30% 7.50% 7.60% Actual (by source) CSO (National Accounts) 5.60% 7.80% 5.10% 4.70% 2.90% WDI 5.60% 7.60% 5.10% 4.70% 2.90% 3.60% Estimates Annual Progress Report 2011 6.60% Annual Progress Report 2012 7.30% Annual Progress Report 2013 6.40% Annual Progress Report 2014 6.70% 6.70% 6.00% Annual Progress Report 2015 5.60% 7.60% 5.10% 5.00% 3.20% Annual Progress Report 2016 4.70% 2.90% 3.40% Note: The estimates in the Annual Progress Reports are exactly the same as the estimates contained in the MoF Annual Economic Reports (2011 to 2016)

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To what extent is the Zambian economy resilient to external shocks? Table 3 shows GDP growth between 2002 and 2017. Zambia proved initially immune to the financial crisis. However, during the 6h Plan period, economic growth in Zambia became more sluggish which coincided with more sluggish World GDP growth, declining copper prices, high crude petroleum prices between 2011 and 2014 and falling current transfers from abroad (from 2012). Crop production also coughs when rainfall is disappointing.

The conclusion is that the Zambian economy has yet to become resilient to external/exogenous shocks.

Table-3: Business Cycles Year GDP GDP Inflation Current LME Average ToT (cop- Gov. Annual Cereal Net growth growth (%) Account Copper oil price per revenue rainfall produc- current ZMB World balance price ($/ ($/barrel) /oil) % of GDP mm tion transfers (%) (%) % of MT) (1000xMT) from GDP abroad (million $) 2002 4.5% 2.2% 22.2% -15.8% 1560 26 60 17.9% 924 755 76.3 2003 6.9% 2.9% 21.4% -13.5% 1779 31 57 17.9% 1032 1366 42.3 2004 7.0% 4.5% 18.0% -7.1% 2865 41 70 18.2% 1082 1381 19.3 2005 7.2% 3.8% 18.3% -2.8% 3683 56 66 17.4% 812 1067 106.8 2006 7.9% 4.3% 9.0% 4.6% 6722 66 102 16.9% 1026 1604 361.8 2007 8.4% 4.3% 10.7% -1.2% 7118 72 99 18.4% 952 1537 530.5 2008 7.8% 1.8% 12.4% -3.3% 6956 100 70 18.5% 980 1396 560.1 2009 9.2% -1.7% 13.4% 6% 5150 62 83 16% 1087 2200 516 2010 10.3% 4.3% 8.5% 7.5% 7535 79 95 17.8% 1031 3101 431.8 2011 5.6% 3.2% 6.4% 4.7% 8821 95 93 20.9% 973 3374 378 2012 7.6% 2.4% 6.6% 5.4% 7959 94 85 17.4% 1107 3203 454 2013 5.1% 2.6% 7.0% -0.6% 7331 98 75 16.9% 986 2900 402 2014 4.7% 2.9% 7.8% -1.4% 6863 93 74 18.2% 1001 3656 324 2015 2.9% 2.8% 10.1% -3.6% 5510 49 112 18.6% 875 2749 225.2 2016 3.6% 2.5% 17.9% -4.4% 4863 43 113 17.9% normal 2993 186.4 2017 3.8% est. 3% est. 6.7% na 6162 51 121 16.6% good 3951 est. 464 proj. Note: Terms of Trade (ToT): 1 tonne of copper buys how many barrels of crude oil (WTI). Sources: WDI (World Bank), LME

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A historical perspective

From 2002 onward Zambia has experienced positive growth; combined with high population growth and double-digit inflation in nine out sixteen years. How does this historically compare with the performance of Western Europe and other economies now in the league of high- income countries? Angus Maddison (OECD, 2001) estimates that annual growth rate averaged only 0.34% in Western Europe between 1000 and 1820, 0.29% in Eastern Europe, 0.23% in Japan. Between 1820 and 1998, annual growth accelerated to respectively 2.13%, 1.92% and 2.75% and 3.68% in North America. During the industrialization period, population growth in Europe stood significantly below the rate experienced by most sub-Saharan African countries: 0.39% p.a. between 1750 and 1800, 0.63% p.a. between 1800 and 1850 and 0.71% p.a. between 1850 and 1900. England however experienced higher population growth: 1.4% p.a. between 1800 and 1850 and 1.2% p.a. between 1850 and 1900. North America, richly endowed with land, saw the largest population growth between 1700 and 1913 with just under 2% p.a. In Zambia, although the share of rural population has fallen, the absolute number of farming population has continued to increase between 1991 and 2017. In fact, farming population is 81% higher. However, it also took until 1910 before the farmer population (in absolute numbers) fell in the USA while in England (and Wales) the farmer population levelled off between 1851 and 1861, some 80-100 years after the Industrial Revolution had started. As for price inflation, historical statistics show that price inflation in England, between 1751 and 1899 averaged only 0.62%, with 12 years of double digit inflation and 74 years of price deflation.

2.2. Key Performance Indicators: targets and achievements

The period 2011-2016 corresponds to the Sixth and Revised Sixth Plan. Although the same Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are found in both Plans, the correspondence is not one hundred percent: some KPIs appear in the Sixth Plan but not in the Revised Sixth Plan and vice versa. It may also occur that KPIs are defined but the Annual Progress Reports do not provide data.

Table 24 (end of the chapter) provides a long list of KPIs, targets and actual performance. The KPIs are grouped according to seven logical clusters: macro-output level indicators, indicators of macro management policies, indicators of Economic Transformation, indicators of Equity and Poverty Reduction, indicators of sector output, indicators of inputs, and, indicators of Productivity.

Achievements against targets have been measured for two years – 2013 and 2016 – whenever possible. The results are synthesized in Table 4 below. In a significant number of cases either no target was set for the KPI or no data of achievement were found in the APR. The count below reveals that targets were exceeded or nearly achieved in 58 instances whereas targets were missed significantly (outturn less than 66% of the target) in 60 instances.

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Table 4: Synthesis of KPIs Within 10% Below 66% of No data or no Area of target or 66-90% of target target target set exceeding target Macro-output level 3 5 4 Macro management policies 6 4 3 1 Economic Transformation 6 8 10 3 Equity, Poverty reduction 10 10 14 10 Sector output level 20 7 6 6 Input level 5 4 15 26 Productivity factors and indicators 8 7 8 20

Against this outcome of the Plan, how much does the planning process cost? An accurate and complete picture is difficult to draw. However, from the 2010 Annual Budget (Ministry of Finance) one can identify the costs of various departments and institutions typically involved in the Planning process. Table 5 shows that expenditures on the planning function, at the central level, are equivalent to 4.86% of the total Budget. Excluding CSO, expenditures amount to 3.4%.

Table 5: how much does central planning cost in Zambia? (2010) Institution Expenditure on Budget 2010 (million) - Policy analysis and coordination department 1341.8 - Ministry of Energy and Water Development: planning and information department 667.7 - MCTI: Planning and Information Department - CSO 3459.7 - Ministry of Finance: National Planning Department 256888.2 - MoF: Monitoring and Evaluation Department 18645.9 - National Policy and Programme Implementation Department 2940 - Ministry of Labour: Planning and Research Department 4233.1 - Ministry of Health: Directorate of Planning and Development 2211.1 - Ministry of Works and Supply: Planning and Monitoring 40230.9 - Ministry of Tourism: Planning and Information Department 2989.1 - Ministry of Education: Planning and Information Department 12137.7 - Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries: Policy and Planning Department 396517.5 - Ministry of Agriculture: Policy and Planning Department 31991.5 69880 TOTAL 838,934.2 Total Government Expenditure 17,252,100.0 Planning function as % of total Government Expenditure 4.86% Planning function (excluding CSO) as % of total Government Expenditure 3.40%

Discussions with stakeholders have consistently pointed at implementation problems for the SNDP/ R-SNDP. So, to what extent have Plan, MTEF and Annual Budget been correlated? Table 6 and Table 7 below show for 2012 what resources had been planned under SNDP (by theme, respectively for the Government and for Cooperating Partners), how much was effectively budgeted and how much was finally released. The data confirm that significant variances – positive and negative -- have appeared between planned allocations, annual budget allocation and effectively released funds. The variances have been particularly large as far as the contributions of Cooperating Partners are concerned.

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Table 6: Approved and actual releases in 2012 by theme (GRZ) Theme SNDP Planned Budget 2012 Release Growth sectors 853.7 205.2 65.4 Infrastructure Development 2,326.8 2,272.6 2,308.1 Rural Development 119.1 154.6 143.1 Human Development 2,915.2 5,717.9 5,612.0 TOTAL 6,214.9 8,350.3 8,128.7 Source: Annual Progress Report 2012

Table 7: approved and actual releases in 2012 by theme (Cooperating Partners) Theme SNDP Planned Budget 2012 Release Growth sectors 221.1 172 24.5 Infrastructure Development 4,906.30 2,441.70 668.7 Rural Development 0 0 0 Human Development 190.6 149.1 134 TOTAL 5,362.60 2,762.80 827.2 Source: Annual Progress Report 2012

Table 8 below sheds further light on planned allocations, annual budget, released funds and actual expenditure for the fiscal year 2013. If there have been shortfalls (compared to planned allocation), there have also existed instances where Released funds and actual Expenditure have exceeded the Annual Budget allocation.

Table 8: Approved and actual releases by selected themes (2013) K million SNDP Budget Theme Release Expenditure Planned 2013 Disaster Risk Management Sector (GRZ) 33.8 53.9 85.5 65 Road Transport Sector 3,751.2 3,288.9 4,353.8 3,818.2 Health: recruitment and replacement of health workers 9.3 7.3 7.3 (GRZ) Construction of General Hospitals 35 26.9 26.9 Energy Sector (GRZ) 193.2 79.5 57.2 46.9 Education and Skills Development Sector 5555.7 6259.1 Water and Sanitation Sector 1,661 288.9 115.4 83.2 Child, Youth and Sports Development Sector (GRZ) 32.5 41.4 23.5 19 Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Sector 1,110.8 1,362.70 1,938.00 Mining Sector (GRZ) 14.6 9.6 2.7 1.3 Tourism Sector (GRZ) 49.9 98.7 83 77.4 Manufacturing Sector (GRZ) 27.5 13.7 9.3 9.3 Commerce and Trade Sector (GRZ) 8 5.24 3.86 3.86 Science, Technology, Innovation (GRZ) 60.8 46.6 44.85 43.91 ICT (GRZ) 47 30.3 18.3 12 Natural Resource Sector GRZ) 55.6 19.8 18.7 Local Government and Decentralization (GRZ) 13.4 18.11 15.84 15.84 Social Protection Sector (GRZ + Donor) 122.4 135.06 131.49 127.17 Regional Development (GRZ) 247.5 226.9 166.7 Source: Annual Progress Report 2013

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The Medium-Term Expenditure Framework underpins the Annual Budgets. In turn, the MTEF is assumed to translate the 5-year Development Plan into 3-year rolling plans. Table 9 below summarizes the assumptions behind respectively the 2011-2013 and the 2014-2016 Green Papers (Ministry of Finance) as well as the actual outcome and functional allocations for Economic Affairs, Education and Health. The table tells the following story:

• The actual outcome for GDP exceeds the projection, although this is mostly monetary illusion (actual inflation exceeding the projection); • Domestic Revenue mobilization (as a percentage of GDP) has fallen short of target in 2014-2016; • Total Expenditure has exceeded the projection, mostly again because of monetary illusion; • Functional allocation has been fluctuating; however, the actual allocation for Education and Health fell short of target; • Payments for wages and salaries have escalated (as a percentage of actual allocation); • Interest payments have also escalated.

In conclusion, implementation of the MTEF has not been implemented as planned. Significantly, payments of wages and interest now represent half of expenditure. Therefore, the margin of the Government to fund subsidies (a high annual average of 2.9% of GDP over 2011-2016), social benefits (an annual average of 0.55% of GDP over the Plan period), operations and maintenance has been dramatically reduced.

Table 9: MTEF assumptions and actual outcomes for domestic revenue, total expenditure and functional budget allocation (million K) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MTEF GDP 87,756 100,145 109,853 139,113 158,275 178,864 Domestic Revenue 15,868.4 18,529.2 20,440.7 29,478.3 35,405.0 41,025.7 As % of GDP 18.1 18.5 18.6 21.5 22.4 22.9 Total Expenditure 20,843.0 24,920.0 26,020.2 38,296.6 39,045.70 44,445.1 As % of GDP 23.75 24.88 23.69 27.53 24.6 24.85 Functional allocation % Economic Affairs Period average: 28.9 22.20% 23.50% 22.50% Education Period average: 18.5 20.50% 21.80% 20.10% Health Period average: 10.5 10.20% 10.50% 10.80% ACTUAL GDP 93,354 105,983 120,78 166,48 183,790 213,139 Domestic Revenue 19,519 22,372.3 24,532.3 30,297.0 34,051.2 38,884.6 As % of GDP 20.9 21.1 20.3 18.2 18.5 18.2 Total Expenditure 22,385.4 26,152.2 33,790.1 38,541.6 51,684.8 51,827.40 As % of GDP 24 24.7 28 23.15 28.1 24.3 Functional allocation % Economic Affairs 26.2 15.4 20.84 23.68 13.5 19.31 Education 14.87 13.3 12.32 22.64 15.9 17.2 Health 8.16 4.8 4.14 6.37 5 4.16 Payments % Personnel Emoluments 31 34.7 33.8 40 31.7 36 Financial Charges 4.6 7.3 4.6 11.7 12.4 14.5 Sources: Green Paper 2011-2013 and Green Paper 2014-2016 (Ministry of Finance), Financial Reports (Ministry of Finance) Economic Reports (Ministry of Finance) analysis by Evaluation Team

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Classified as a lower middle-income country, Zambia enjoys less access to concessional external financing and now has to turn to the international capital market at non-concessional terms. Therefore, part of Zambia’s debt service derives from the Eurobond issues in the current decade. Zambia launched three Eurobonds issues (2012, 2014, and 2015) at initial yields of 5.625%, 8.625% and 8.97% respectively. How does this compare with sovereign bond issues from other emerging markets? Table 10 below informs about yields in recent issues.

Table 10: Yields on Eurobond issues country year Initial yield Gabon 2017 6.25% Greece 2017 4.63% Nigeria 2017 7.63% Egypt 2017 8.5% on a 30-year bond Senegal 2017 6.25% Nigeria 2017 7.76% Ghana 2016 9.25% Namibia 2015 5.38% Ethiopia 2014 6.63% Greece 2014 4.95% Ghana 2007 8.50% Note: the currency of Senegal and Gabon is the CFA, which is in a currency union with the Euro

The yield on Zambia’s 2015 issue is on the high side and exceeds the GDP growth by several points. The issue can be considered risky unless the proceeds are used by Government for targeted projects with yield high rates of return and with revenues that are easy to capture by the Government in order to repay the loan.

What has been the Government’s resources mobilisation strategy? Table 11 demonstrates how the Government has been on a borrowing binge – external borrowing in 2012, 2014 and 2015 – and domestic borrowing between 2012 and 2016. Debt contraction constituted a major source of finance to implement the budget during the period, and the positive impact on GDP however remained minimal.

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Table 11: Cash receipts of the Government 2010 2011 2012 Receipts 2013 2014 2015 2016 X1000 X1000 X1000 Tax revenue 12743 18414 20772.5 22431.7 26835.4 28898.1 30427.7 Non-tax revenue 1049.8 1526.1 1138.9 2163.7 2814.2 5252.3 8790.4 Grants and aid 771.6 680.1 602.1 347.2 291.3 - 303.5 Proceeds from external borrowing 979.5 1150.1 7176 912 9058.7 21174 4682.1 Proceeds from domestic borrowing 1948.6 2745.8 11241.9 18298.7 14478.2 15387.4 23338.1 TOTAL 17492.6 24516.1 40931.3 44153.3 53477.7 70711.8 67541.7 Source: MoF Financial Reports (various editions) Note: currency re-denomination in 2013 (three zeros were slashed from the ZMW)

The planning framework in Zambia includes several steps: concept paper, consultation, formulation, annual budgeting, monitoring and evaluation. As part of the process an Annual Progress Report (APR) is drafted to measure progress in Plan implementation and to identify lessons (to be learnt). The APR is an informative document; yet key financial information is missing enabling the measurement, in an exhaustive way, of achievements against original (budget) targets of the Plan. This finding is illustrated in the Table 12 below. The information provided in the APR is not consistent. More often than not, the planned budget allocation is missing and replaced by annual budget allocation. Therefore, what is actually monitored is the annual budget and not the Sixth Plan.

Table 12: Budget Performance reported in the Annual Progress Report 2016 Sector Table Available Missing Other remarks information information Employment and Job creation 2.2.1 Heading missing Transport 2.3.1 B,E R-SNDP, R Rural Roads 2.4.1 R,E R-SNDP, B Different presentation Energy 2.5.1 R-SNDP, B,R,E Lands, Natural Resources, Environment 2.6.1. B,R,E R-SNDP No totals Mining and Minerals Development 2.7.1 B,R,E R-SNDP ICT 2.8.1 B,R,E R-SNDP Gender 2.9.2 B,R,E R-SNDP Health Sector 2.10.1 B,R,E R-SNDP Education & Skills Development: TEVET 2.11.1 R-SNDP,B,R,E No totals Ministry of General Education none B,R,E R-SNDP Governance 2.13.1 Shows budget performance for 2015, not 2016 Fisheries and Livestock 2.14.1 R-SNDP,B,R Science, Technology, Innovation 2.15.1 R-SNDP,B,R,E Agriculture Sector 2.16.1 R-SNDP,B,R E Tourism & Arts Sector 2.17.1 B,R,E R-SNDP Youth, Sport & Child Development 2.18.1 B,R,E R-SNDP Commerce, Trade, Industry 2.19.1 B,R,E R-SNDP No totals Manufacturing 2.20.1 B,R,E R-SNDP No totals Social Protection 2.21.1 B,R,E Incomplete R- SNDP data Water Sector 2.22.1 Shows budget performance for 2015, not 2016

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Notes:

1. R-SNDP=R-SNDP budget allocation, B=Annual Budget, R=Released, E=Expenditure 2. Health Sector: Total Budget = 4616.3 million and Total Expenditure=4133.2 million (=89.5%); however, when personnel emoluments are taken out then Total Budget=2051.8 million and Total Expenditure=1568.8 (=76.5%), meaning that non-wage expenditure items are adjusted downwards most (whereas personnel emoluments are NOT adjusted downwards at all). 3. Ministry of General Education: Total Budget=7980.4 million and Total Expenditure=5315.6 million (=66.6%). 4. Fisheries and Livestock: R-SNDP budget=1566.5 million and Released amount=189.3 million (=12.1%) 5. Agriculture Sector: R-SNDP budget=2311 million and Release amount=3033.1 million (=131%) 6. Youth, Sport & Child Development: Annual Budget=234.6 million and Expenditure=81.2 million (34.6%) 7. Commerce, Trade and Industry: Annual Budget=5.6 million and Expenditure=1.04 million (=18.5%) 8. Water Sector: Released amount was 55% of the Planned amount (in 2015)

2.3. How have public investment and public expenditure on health and education evolved during the Plan period?

The three policy variables are contributing to productivity growth in the economy. As Table 13 illustrates, Gross Capital Formation has been boosted during the Sixth Plan period, compared to the Fifth Plan period. Yet on average, the economy underperformed during the Sixth Plan compared to the Fifth Plan. Reflecting the Plan’s goal to boost infrastructure development, Public Investment, as a share of GDP increased by 1.2 percentage points. However, compared to the base year, private investment was more robust. Public Expenditure on Health and Public Expenditure on Education initially showed an increase over the base year before levelling off.

Table 13: public investment and public expenditure in health and education Gross investment Gross Capital Forma- Health Expenditure, Public Education Year Government as % of tion (% of GDP) public (% of GDP) Expenditure GDP (source: IMF) 2006 20% 4.1% 2.8% 3.9% 2007 22.5% 5.7% 1.9% 4.0% 2008 22.60 3.6% 2.2% 4.3% 2009 21.1% 3.4% 2.3% 4.4% 2010 29.9% 3.2% 2.3% 3.7% 2011 33.6% 4.2% 2.1% 3.8% 2012 31.8% 6.2% 2.5% 4.2% 2013 34% 6.3% 2.8% 4.3% 2014 34% 4.8% 2.8% 5.2% 2015 42.8% 6.0% 2.7% (est.) 4.5% 2016 38% 3.8% (prelim.) 1.90% 4.1% Sources: Gross investment Government (IMF: Article IV Consultation), Gross Capital Formation (CSO) Health and Education: Ministry of Finance (2015, 2016), CSO, World Bank, UNICEF

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2.4. Contributions to economic growth

Between 2010 (the base year) and 2016, last year of the R-SNDP, GDP at factor costs and at constant prices increased by 30 billion K (see line (1)) in Table 14 below. The source of information is National Accounts of CSO. If considered reliable the National Accounts reveal that Trade, Public Administration and Other services have accounted for two thirds of the absolute increase in GDP (at factor costs). Surprisingly, the contribution of Agriculture and Mining to Value Added growth have been marginal, if any. Relatively, the contributions of Manufacturing and Construction have been good. Disappointingly, the agriculture sector – where most of the poverty is located – has performed very poorly.

Table 14: Sector contributions to growth (2010-2016) Contribution to VA Sector: Value Added at constant 2010 2010 2016 Variation growth (at factor prices Million K Million K costs) Agriculture, forestry, fishing 9,158.70 9,101.60 -57.1 -0.20% Mining and quarrying 12,428.70 13,608.60 1,179.90 3.90% Manufacturing 7,367.30 10,455.70 3,088.40 10.20% Electricity and water 1,783.00 2,273.60 490.6 1.60% Construction 9,761.30 13,802.50 4,041.20 13.40% Transportation 5,705.90 4,204.70 -1,501.20 -5% Accommodation and food services 1,599.40 2,390.00 790.6 2.60% Public Administration, health, education 12,624.10 18,292.40 5,668.30 18.70% Other services (excl. trade) 13,817.40 19,324.80 5,507.40 18.20% Trade 17,590.50 28,651.50 11,061.00 36.50% (1) GDP at factor costs 91,836.30 122,105.40 30,269.10 Taxes less subsidies 5,379.60 7,168.30 1,788.70 (2) GDP at market prices 97,215.90 129,273.70 32,057.80 Source: National Accounts (CSO). Calculations by Evaluation Team Note: the margin of taxes over GDP at factor cost is 5.86% in 2010 and 5.87% in 2016, meaning that indirect taxes (net of subsidies) have hardly increased relative to GDP at factor costs

Table 15 confirms that agriculture has not been a driver of the economy, in spite of investments and current expenditures (including inputs subsidies). Production of maize -- the major crop in Zambia - has experienced ups and downs in function of rainfall. Also, diversification into other crops has not yet been a frank success. Many farming households consider agriculture essentially as a subsistence activity rather than a business.

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Table 15: Production of selected major crops (MT) Crop 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 Maize 2,938,295 2,541,963 3,250,674 2,916,013 2,918,540 3.606,549 Sorghum 17,505 13,227 12,022 13,006 19,611 Rice 52,782 46,855 53,921 31,368 26,675 Millet 41,732 34,542 41,732 40,889 42,358 sunflower 26,704 31,398 29,208 41,372 61,073 groundnuts 120,047 110,969 124,958 122,622 131,562 168,699 Soya beans 21,529 31,891 36,825 50,619 50,188 Mixed beans 48,761 53,873 47,768 52,379 45,351 45,938 Seed cotton 236,553 139,583 120,314 103,889 111,902 89,293 Sweet potato 117,080 188,355 150,158 118,330 231,882 Sources: Post-Harvest Survey Reports (various issues). Annual Progress Reports on SNDP/R-SNDP. IAPRI Agricultural Status Report. Economic Report (Ministry of Finance) Note: Estimates vary across reports

2.5. The Poverty profile and Regional disparities

Considering that poverty reduction has been a goal of the Sixth Plan and continues to be one in the Seventh Plan, this chapter inevitably analyses the evolving poverty profile. Of the estimated 2.491 million households in 2010, 1.426 million households (57%) were classified as Small-Scale farmer households. Their household income was equivalent to about half of average all-Zambia household income. In 2015, of the estimated 2.944 million households, 1.527 million households (51.9%) were Small Scale farmer households with a household income equivalent to 38.5% of average all-Zambia household income. Therefore, the relative position of the rural poor has not improved. Income inequality remains high and many poor farmers are not able to get out of the poverty trap. What has happened though is that the proportion of Small-Scale farmer households has fallen whereas the proportion of urban poor households has increased from 26.5% to 32.5%.

Table 16 below shows the trend in employment status between 2006 and 2015.

Table 16: distribution (%) of employment (number of persons) Household class 2006 2010 2015 Small scale farmer households – informal employment 63.20 61.8% 53.2% Small scale farmer households – formal employment 6.00 4.3% 3.8% Medium scale farmer households – informal employ- 2.20 2.1% 2.6% ment Medium scale farmer households – formal employment 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Large scale farmer households – informal employment 0.05% 0.1% 0.1% Large scale farmer households – formal employment 0.02% 0.02% 0.04% Rural non-agricultural households 2.8% 3.9% 2.9% Urban formal employment 10.9% 11.4% 14.7% Urban informal employment 14.7% 16.1% 22.5% Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Calculations by the author

A strong correlation exists between household income, per capita expenditure, informal sector employment and Poverty headcount. Table 17 below confirms the existence of high correlation rates between these respective variables, and consistently so over time.

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Table 17: The nexus Household Income – Poverty – Informality by Province Correlation coefficient between … Hhld income & Report Hhld income & Hhld income & per Poverty & informal informal sector Poverty capita expenditure sector employment employment 1996 -0.99 -0.98 0.85 0.98 1998 -0.96 na na na 2002-2003 -0.84 -0.96 0.98 0.77 2004 -0.97 -0.96 0.94 0.95 2010 -0.97 -0.98 0.92 0.99 2015 -0.97 -0.98 0.96 0.96 Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Calculations by the author Notes: • Poverty = extreme and moderate poverty • Informal sector employment as percentage of total provincial employment • The 2015 Report includes the Province of Muchinga

Considering that poverty is significantly correlated with smallholder agriculture – and informality in general – it is not surprising that the Provinces with the highest rate of informality – are also characterized by the highest poverty levels (in terms of income and expenditure). Copperbelt and Lusaka Provinces have consistently ranked top in terms of household income and per capita expenditure. This is illustrated in Table 18 and Table 19. Resultantly, Copperbelt and Lusaka Province generate more than half of Zambia’s GDP (Table 20).

During the Sixth Plan period, there was no significant reduction in overall poverty.

Poverty status, net enrolment rates and household income

The Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (2015) documents on the relationship between poverty and net school enrolment rates. The net enrolment rate in grades 5-7 for children from Extremely poor households is a high 89.6%. It increases to 100% for moderately poor and non-poor households.

The net enrolment rate in grades 10-12 for children from Extremely poor households drops dramatically to 21.2%, 46.3% and 76.9% for moderately poor and non-poor households.

Household income for households headed by a person with a grade 10-12 education level is 2.7 times larger than income for households headed by a person with only a grade 1-7 education level. Furthermore, household income when the head holding a Certificate/diploma is 7 times larger while income for households headed by a person holding a Degree or higher is 10.5 times larger. These are important increments which should point at hidden demand for education and confirm that the economic return to an extra year of education and certificate/diploma is significant.

So, why do children discontinue schooling/drop out? A correct interpretation of the Survey results tells that strictly economic reasons (lack of financial support, cost of education, need to help out at home etc.) are responsible for 68% of drop outs (66% in 2010). Failure to be selected or the fact of being expelled counts for another 11% (16.4% in 2010). Clearly, many children are being left behind.

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Table 18: The regional dimension – mean Household Income as a proportion of mean Zambia Household Income Province 1996 1998 2002-2003 2004 2010 2015 Central 77.9 92.5 88.1 88.2 90.2 85 Copperbelt 144.1 134.6 150 132.5 171.1 179.2 Eastern 68.9 81.2 70.4 97.6 54.6 56.4 Luapula 75.1 56 62.3 63.2 58.9 46.4 Lusaka 180.3 203.9 205.7 146.2 160 160.6 Northern 60.5 53.7 58.4 75.3 63.1 49.7 North Western 55.2 57.6 65 85.1 82.6 78.4 Southern 78.5 91.9 95.9 94.6 100.7 76 Western 50.1 40.1 71.8 71 58.8 49 Muchinga 66.7 ZAMBIA 100 100 100 100 100 100 Data Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Calculations by the author

Table 19: the regional dimension – mean per capita expenditure as a proportion of mean All-Zambia per capita expenditure Province 1996 2002-2003 2004 2010 2015 Central 76.3 98 57.3 81.9 83.4 Copperbelt 126 122.5 87.4 154 155.1 Eastern 61.4 85.6 65.8 51.3 59.9 Luapula 88.2 83.8 51.3 46.5 46.6 Lusaka 195.8 152.2 124.1 211.5 186.3 Northern 60.2 66.6 56 55.3 44.4 North Western 67.6 79.9 55.6 103.1 69.4 Southern 91.4 95.4 76.5 80.5 89.9 Western 65 90.1 44.3 53.5 44.2 Muchinga 85.2 ZAMBIA 100 100 100 100 100 Data Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Calculations by the author

Table 20: Provincial contribution to Value Added (at current prices), 2015 Province % of VA % of population Central 6.9% 9.8% Copperbelt 28.9% 15.3% Eastern 5.2% 11.7% Luapula 2.8% 7.3% Lusaka 28.5% 17.9% Northern 3.6% 8.4% North Western 7.5% 5.4% Southern 10.6% 12% Western 3.0% 6.4% Muchinga 3.1% 5.8% ZAMBIA 100 100 Data Source: CSO, National Accounts

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2.6. Have jobs been created?

Considering that employment is an important goal, and an explicitly stated one under the R-SNDP, how has employment generation fared? Unfortunately, findings are not conclusive. Employment data are found in the Labour Force Survey Report (LFS). Reports are available for 2005, 2008, 2012 and 2014, but not for 2010 (base year), nor for 2016 (final year of the R-SNDP). Of course, a Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Report (LCMS) exists for 2015 (but not 2016). Since early 2017 a Quarterly estimate of employment is produced by CSO (Monthly Report). Unfortunately, all these reports are NOT comparable as Table 21 below demonstrates.

Reading the table below, one observes enormous swings (in Total Employment, in Agriculture, in Other services). Between LFS-2008 and LFS-2014, employment in Agriculture declines by more than 400,000 which is not plausible. Of course, CSO can always provide answers, but planners and monitors/evaluators need stable methodologies and data comparable over the years

Table 21: Employment Sector LFS 2008 LFS 2014 LCMS 2015 Monthly CSO 2017-Q1 Agriculture 3,284,208 2,864,158 2,936,23 Mining and Quarrying 92,810 82,725 85,036 Manufacturing 159,194 223,681 210,088 Construction 80,255 182,806 185,078 Water and Electricity 13,864 27,458 25,011 Transport 94,800 152,052 125,053 Public Administration, 872,452 294,639 320,134 Health, Education Other services 2,031,706 1,115,469 TOTAL 4,606,846 5,859,225 5,002,101 3,066,470 Of which: Formal employment 511,338 944,256 983,162 760,624 Sources: LFS, LCMS, Monthly Report CSO.

The data published can evidently not be used for monitoring purposes unless one limits himself to employment in the formal sector. However, even in formal sector employment, significant swings are observed across the different sources.

Therefore, unless one wants to go into voodoo economics, no conclusion can be drawn on employment trends

2.7. Household savings rates: who is saving?

Considering that Zambia has achieved high investment rates during the Sixth Plan period, one may ask the question “who is saving?” In 2010 (the base year), the Central Government managed a small surplus (Revenue minus Current Expenditure). It repeated this performance in 2011 and 2012. However, in the period 2013 to 2016, the Government ran a fiscal deficit.

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As for households, the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey sheds some light -- though not entirely consistent in time – on the household savings rate (Table 22). The large number of poor farmer households in the rural area are characterized by a low savings rate (if any) and indications are that the urban poor are also marked by a low savings rate. As the household income level rises, economic theory predicts that the savings go up. Incomes of medium scale rural households and non-agricultural rural households are approximately equivalent and both achieve a reasonable savings rate. However, the urban medium and high-income households who in 2015 represent nearly 10% of Zambian households do not achieve a markedly higher savings rate.

In fact, the urban rich are even characterized by a lower savings rate. This means that the rich are actually characterized by lower thrift. Very likely also the urban rich will provide fewer start- up entrepreneurs than what would be expected. This finding is compatible with observations in the field. Miners – a stratum with higher income – are frequently reported to experience financial distress because of poor financial management (and high rates of borrowing), not a clear indication of entrepreneurial behaviour.

In conclusion - and by deduction - the bulk of savings originates from corporate enterprises (retained earnings and foreign direct investment).

Table 22: Monthly income, monthly expenditure (ZMW) and savings rates of household classes Mean Household Mean Household income Savings rate Household classes expenditure 2015 2015 2015 Rural Small scale 693.1 698 -7% Medium scale 1,862.2 1,454 21.9% Large scale 10,751.9 3,645 66.1% Non-agricultural 1,627.9 1,222 24.9% Urban Low cost 2,180.5 1,893 13.2% Medium cost 5,320.7 4,078 23.4% High cost 7,698.5 6,818 11.4% Source: Living Conditions Monitoring Survey Calculations by the author

2.8. Trends observed over the last 2-3 years: the Mini-Survey

In order to verify or qualify some of the earlier findings, a Mini-Survey was organized among stakeholders and citizens, in two Provinces visited. The questionnaire touches upon a wide range of issues and asks the respondents about their perceptions on these issues for their respective Districts/communities. The questionnaire includes questions on the respondents’ activity, age and gender. Table 23 below presents some salient results, comparing the perceptions of civil servants versus those of citizens working outside the civil service (farming, business, NGO).

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The findings are as follows:

• Across the board, no sharp differences exist in perceptions between civil servants and citizens in other activities. • Civil servants are somewhat more convinced that their wellbeing depends on Government. • Respondents are almost equally split between those who have seen NO change in incomes and those who have seen much or some increases in income. • Citizens outside the civil service have seen less change in jobs at mines and factories. • There exists agreement on the fact that improved seeds and fertilizer have become more available. • Respondents see more fruits/vegetables and meat/fish being traded in the market. However, four out of ten respondents did not see more wholesalers buying crops. • Citizens outside the civil service are less convinced – than civil servants -- that the quality of public services has improved. They are also less convinced that civil servants have become more responsive. • Citizens have seen health services improve and the incidence of malaria and diarrhoea fall. However, one in two citizens who are not in the civil service have seen no change in the diversification of diets. • A strong majority of respondents have seen the choice in education and the quality of education improved. However, teacher motivation is still an issue in the opinion of citizens outside the civil service. • As regards to roads, a majority of respondents are concerned about rural roads not being constructed and roads not being maintained. • Access to electricity and reliability of electricity has improved according to (a majority of) respondents. • Roughly half of respondents consider that access to safe water has improved. • An environmental concern exists in that respondents see more litter around. • Although access to banking has improved, access to a business credit has seen no change according to half of the citizens not employed in the civil service. • One in two civil servants see no improvement in access to land for housing. • A majority of respondents have seen cooperatives becoming more active. • A majority of respondents have also seen more cultural activities organized. • A strong majority of respondents strongly agree that the cost of living has increased. • About of respondents believe that crime has increased. • Almost two in three citizens outside the civil service strongly believe that corruption has been on the rise. • A strong minority of respondents strongly agree that children have become less respectful. • Half of citizens outside the civil service strongly believe that violence against women has increased. • One quarter of respondents agree that late payments of wages has occurred.

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Table 23: Perceptions on trends in the Districts/communities Issue/Opinion Civil servants Other employment The wellbeing of my family, my community, Very much or LESS SO Very much or LESS SO my district depends essentially on: somewhat somewhat My attitude to work 98.3% 1.7% 100.0% 0.0% My own productivity 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% Private initiative 87.3% 12.7% 92.6% 7.4% Local Government 60.6% 39.4% 52.5% 47.5% Lusaka (Government) 47.9% 52.1% 32.5% 67.5% Over the last 2-3 years I have seen Very much or NO CHANGE Very much or NO happening in my District or community: somewhat somewhat CHANGE Increase in incomes 48.5% 51.5% 56.4% 43.6% More formal job opportunities 65.7% 34.3% 47.2% 52.8% More jobs in mining/factories 59.4% 40.6% 38.9% 61.1% Easier access to improved seeds 75.8% 24.2% 74.4% 25.6% More fertilizer available/used 68.3% 31.7% 65.0% 35.0% Irrigation projects completed 39.7% 60.3% 27.0% 73.0% More fruits/vegetables traded 84.8% 15.2% 67.5% 32.5% More meat/fish traded in market 87.7% 12.3% 71.8% 28.2% More wholesalers buying crops 60.9% 39.1% 60.0% 40.0% Public services quality improved 73.9% 26.1% 56.8% 43.2% Civil servants more responsive 79.4% 20.6% 67.6% 32.4% Our diets are more diversified 68.1% 31.9% 53.8% 46.2% Health services have improved 75.7% 24.3% 74.4% 25.6% Incidence of malaria has fallen 85.7% 14.3% 79.5% 20.5% Incidence of diarrhoea has fallen 78.6% 21.4% 81.1% 18.9% More choice in education 81.2% 18.8% 76.9% 23.1% Quality of education improved 73.1% 26.9% 84.6% 15.4% Teachers are more motivated 61.8% 38.2% 55.0% 45.0% A main road was constructed 62.3% 37.7% 72.5% 27.5% Rural roads were constructed 45.7% 54.3% 37.5% 62.5% The roads I use are maintained 40.8% 59.2% 35.0% 65.0% More private/public transport 85.7% 14.3% 80.0% 20.0% Access to electricity has expanded 91.2% 8.8% 70.0% 30.0% Electricity is more reliable 85.5% 14.5% 74.4% 25.6% Piped water came to houses 56.5% 43.5% 35.9% 64.1% Access to safe water improved 53.6% 46.4% 50.0% 50.0% Waste collection and treatment 47.9% 52.1% 50.0% 50.0% My environment sees lots of litter 79.7% 20.3% 65.8% 34.2% Easier access to internet 68.6% 31.4% 54.1% 45.9% Easier access to banking 83.8% 16.2% 82.5% 17.5% Easier to obtain a business credit 57.4% 42.6% 50.0% 50.0% Easier access to land for housing 50.0% 50.0% 62.5% 37.5% Cooperatives more active 56.1% 43.9% 65.0% 35.0% More cultural activities organized 76.5% 23.5% 62.5% 37.5% Tourists coming to the area 38.8% 61.2% 17.9% 82.1% Agree Over the last 2-3 years I have seen happen- Agree somewhat somewhat I strongly agree I strongly agree ing in my District or community: or do not agree or do not agree Increase in cost of living 84.1% 15.9% 76.3% 23.7% Increase in crime 50.0% 50.0% 53.8% 46.2% Increase in corruption 42.2% 57.8% 64.1% 35.9% Children less respectful 47.1% 52.9% 42.1% 57.9% More violence against women 39.7% 60.3% 50.0% 50.0% Delayed payment of wages 28.4% 71.6% 25.0% 75.0%

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3.0. Planning and Implementation: what has worked and what did not work so well?

Against the backdrop of the SNDP/R-SNDP achievements against targets, one may ask what has worked well and what has not worked so well with planning and implementation processes? Did Planning matter? How would Zambia’s economy, the lives of Zambians have fared in the counterfactual scenario of “No Plan”?

This section draws upon both literature review – the Annual Progress Reports – and findings in the course of the Final Evaluation mission.

The issues are grouped under Planning and Implementation although the split is admittedly arbitrary. Indeed, if an implementation issue or constraint appears as a “surprise” or as an external shock, then that issue can be truly listed under Implementation. However, if an issue is not really a “surprise” -- because that issue returns year after year and Plan after Plan – then this issue becomes part and parcel of the Plan process itself: if an issue returns Plan after Plan then the indication is that the lesson from the past has NOT been learnt and the issue was not anticipated.

What has worked well in the Planning process

1. The Plan was underpinned by a long-term Vision-2030. 2. Vision-2030 refers to benchmarks such as Botswana, Egypt, Gabon, Malaysia, Panama, South Africa, and Thailand (however, lessons are not necessarily learnt by the political authorities). 3. A formal participatory and consultative process was followed. 4. The SNDP contributed to longer-term thinking. 5. The recognition that quality matters, notably in Education and Health services delivery; unfortunately, because of high population growth – and its impact on funds availability as well as demand -- effective improvements in quality are very incremental and far from dramatic. 6. The Plan period has seen a lot of policy development/legislation. 7. Data are available for planning purposes, although gaps exist (in terms of areas not well covered, changing methodologies and frequency of data collection). 8. The existence of an informative Fifth NDP Final Evaluation Report which pointed at persistent weaknesses in planning and implementation processes. 9. The existence of a National Planning and Budgeting Policy document (Ministry of Finance, May 2014, 38 pages) the well-founded guidelines of which, unfortunately, were not entirely taken on board by planners and political authorities. In fact, the warnings formulated in this document were not heeded. The document reads (page-8), “The[se] challenges in development planning and budgeting processes over the last decade have led to unsatisfactory progress in addressing the significant development challenges facing the nation, especially the persistently high rural poverty rates, youth unemployment and the delivery of efficient municipal services to local communities.” Each NDP will from now on show how it contributes to the goals of the National Vision, build on lessons learnt from previous Development Plans … “ensure that major capital projects and recurrent programmes undergo appraisals and/or evaluations before inclusion in the Plan.” 10. The existence of Sector Investment Plans which span a longer period than the 5-year NDPs. 11. The low turnover of staff in key departments.

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What has not worked so well in the Planning process

1. The optimistic scenario of Vision-2030 was over-ambitious. However, “being optimistic is preferred to being conservative.” 2. The investment rate required to achieve the growth target was not explicit in the Plan document. 3. The economic model “ZAMMOD” does not comprehensively address the production side (production functions and inter-sectoral linkages) it is more oriented toward medium-term and long-term forecasting and simulations. 4. High and variable inflation rates cause monetary illusion and inevitably this compromises the Plan. 5. There was never a strong case of economics for a Revised SNDP considering that the challenges of -- and medium-term goals for -- the Zambian economy have not changed over the last decade and considering that the instruments for implementing Plans are the MTEF and Annual Budget. With limited scope of resource inflows to the Plan’s large scale investment programmes. Stronger continuity should be ensured in translating the MTEF into the annual budget. 6. Some targets for KPIs set by planners are clearly not robust. The classification of KPIs is not entirely rational (there is a mix of KPIs for outcomes and inputs and it is not clear what is transformational and what is not so). 7. The participatory and consultative process remained rather shallow and very localized (not brought down to the District?) such that the ownership of the development process was not taken up beyond the Public Administration. The sub-national levels and most of the citizens may not find themselves in the Plan. The question is “who was effectively consulted?” The usual privileged, insiders, civil servants? Tools to collect data at the local level were not adequate. High-powered forms of consultation such as local and national referendums have not been used to validate policies. The hard questions of selection and priorities are not raised and therefore arbitration remains with the top. The priorities at Provincial level have not been respected; therefore, “we are not accountable” for what happened at the National level, in particular the KPIs. 8. The role of Parliament and MPs is minor. 9. Lessons from previous planning exercises do exist, but they were not necessarily learnt. In particular, planners and politicians did not seem to integrate very well the downside risks and external shocks (including climate change) which are nevertheless well-documented. A good Plan is one that anticipates constraints and risks. Example: significant investments in dams for hydro-power stations in a context of declining -- or increasingly erratic -- rainfall. Insufficient attention was paid to diversification of energy sources. One lesson learnt however was the need to advance to a multi-sectoral approach (cluster approach) to ensure that synergies are achieved. 10. The programme/project appraisal system was inadequate in most instances resulting in weak prioritisation. In the past, every sector applied its own selection approach, if any was existing. The process is not transparent. Projects may not be correctly costed and sometimes projects are designed without considering the local situation (e.g. availability of construction materials). The Ministry of National Development Planning (Public Investment Planning) is currently addressing this situation (developing a range of instruments such as manuals and guidelines), with the assistance of the World Bank. This will change the ways in which everyone behaves. 11. Inadequate anticipation of weaknesses in management models and business model formulation (related to projects such as irrigation, farm blocks, tourism developments, re-stocking of national parks with wildlife).

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12. Insufficient data coverage for Agriculture, Business establishments (the Business Registry is not updated!), Employment, the informal sector (obviously). Data may not be comparable from one Report to another (example the Labour Force Survey). And, although sufficient data exist in many areas, they are not necessarily analysed nor correctly interpreted. 13. The frequency of surveys does not always enable annual monitoring of the Plan implementation. 14. National Accounts date are released late and contain important uncertainties (e.g. the Change in Inventories is simply too large to be comfortable for modelling and forecasting). 15. Inadequate balancing between current expenditure for operations & maintenance and capital expenditure. Reportedly, no benchmarks exist or are used in this respect. Maintenance management in particular is an area of serious concern (e.g. for unpaved roads and the railway); politicians are concerned with “hard” things and less with soft things. 16. Inadequate balancing between allocations for wages and allocations for critical inputs (classes without furniture and learning materials, motorcycles for agricultural extension officers without petrol). 17. Often the hard questions are not raised: the why, why, why, why behind things. The Opposition also does play its role in this respect. 18. Total Factor Productivity growth virtually nil. Citizens are not fully aware of the key role of productivity as a driver of growth? No awareness campaign exists to explain why more needs to be achieved with less resources. 19. The negative impact of high population growth is not sufficiently acknowledged. There is no demographic dividend yet as long as the fertility rate remains high. High population growth leads to land pressure, it impacts on demands for health and education expenditures, for housing, for roads/sanitation/water/electricity, for solid waste collection and treatment. The Government is always running after a moving target. It also leads to a mismatch in the labour market, between the increase in labour supply and labour demand in the short and medium term. Population pressure leads to jeopardizing quality over quantity (for instance in education and health, housing). Furthermore, the City of Lusaka is growing laterally, not vertically (which is an issue of land use). Bold policies are missing. 20. Absence of boldness and decisiveness in decision-making also appears to explain why the promotion of passenger and freight railway transport failed to materialize; instead, numbers of passengers and freight transported continued to tumble. Promoting rail transport requires thinking about inter-modality. 21. Insufficient use of “participatory budgeting” model in project selection, financing and implementation. Consequently, it proves difficult to reconcile local priorities and demands with budget resources available. This leads to incomprehension about the transparency of the final selection process, to citizens’ apathy, to demotivation of local planners. 22. Delays in formulating and rolling out of policy reforms. Examples: Decentralization (which must include budgeting and fiscal decentralization if decentralization is to become effective), Land Reform. Access to land is constrained in certain districts because of the resistance to change by traditional rulers (not by lack of arable land or land suitable for urban and industrial development). In some districts the policy is to “never give a title”. 23. The private sector representative organizations claimed that the Plan implicitly assumed that growth is public sector-led, not private sector-led. The role of the formal private sector is insufficiently recognized, as were the importance of Mining and Manufacturing and Value Chain development. Policy makers and politicians must acknowledge that economic diversification is

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achieved by entrepreneurs/investors whereas Government is a facilitator. The private sector primarily develops and responds to incentives and guidelines. 24. Specifically, the importance of entrepreneurship development and effectiveness of the Industrial Zones policy are underestimated. There is as yet no policy on Growth Poles although there exist ideas for targeting manufacturing development in certain regions. 25. With regard to Education -- apart from the issue of quality -- the Plan pays insufficient attention to the acquisition of practical skills for the market place. Insufficient number of youths go through technical and vocational education while the curriculum still favours education for white collar employment.

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ANNEX 5:

Analysis of National M&E systems and Practices

ANALYSIS OF THE NATIONAL MONITORING SYSTEM

The evaluation of achievement brought forward a number of inconsistencies in the monitoring focus and logic as presented in the SNDP and R-SNDP. It was further noted that all the defined results concern outputs only, while outcomes are put as a narrative at the end of each sector plan. This monitoring analysis will, therefore, mainly concern an analysis of the monitoring design, while the monitoring practices are described and evaluated in the text.

The internationally agreed cascade of result levels comprise: The internationally agreed cascade of result1 levels comprise:

NATIONAL GOAL/VISION People centred growth

Change in life and in systemic quality Impact (Social, economic, environmental, political)

Change in practices Outcome (Production, policy enforcement, institutional)

Change in product Output (Policy, guidelines, knowledge, systems)

Activities for change Input (Financing, training, procuring, evaluating, facilitating)

NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

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1 For example UN and Sida guidelines for development of Results-Based M&E systems DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

The illustration above reflects the cascading of changes starting with having a vision, the national goal, which forms the frame for formulation and focus of the NDP. The plan is effectuated through a number of parallel, sectoral and inter-sectoral activities of both technical and administrative character. The examples given in brackets are mere examples of types of achievements at the respective levels of results.

When having defined the national goal it is essential to break it down into manageable entities. The R-SNDP was broken down into four pillars of activities:

• Employment and job creation • Rural development and inclusive growth • Human capacity development, and • Infrastructure development.

All pillars are overlapping with others and the content of each pillar contains outcome results only, which will not inevitably lead to the desired growth. Thus the pillars are both overlapping and partly non-growth related.

An example of pillar overlap. It is not clear why part of education falls under “Inclusive growth”, while other parts fall under “Human capacity development”. When looking at the description of the focus of each pillar it shows that “Inclusive growth” aims:

To promote rural development by promoting agricultural development, rural enterprises and providing support infrastructure in rural areas . Thus there was an intention to develop agriculture and rural enterprises both of which relate to “Em- ployment and job creation”. In addition there was an intention to focus on “Support infrastructure” while having a separate infrastructure pillar.

With regard to non-growth related Key Results Areas (KRAs) there is no mentioning in any pillar of the enablers for e.g. human development at outcome and impact level. It is critical for growth that people can translate knowledge and skills into production, whether as an individual or through small or medium business level developments to enable people contribute towards national growth. Such enablers could be realistic loan opportunities, mentoring, study visits, awards for good performing businesses of all sizes e.g. in terms of free access to higher level knowledge, bigger loan under better conditions etc. There were no such activities, which should have been introduced when the output level achievements were recorded to ensure that those who graduate immediately engage in continued development and growth.

Finally, interaction with international markets is absent in all pillars although aspiring for growth. It cannot be expected that Zambia can grow in isolation.

Disconnects and/or overlaps between planned activities and national goal and the lack of result- thinking in the R-SNDP are just but a few challenges making the Plan be erratic and close to devoid of vision for how to grow, which would require a logic in planning of how and when to move from one step of development to the next without which the plan is close to non-implementable – and implic-

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itly very difficult to monitor and evaluate in a robust manner. The analysis showed severe shortcomings in the M&E system: Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan Final Evaluation: Detailed Report FINDINGS CONSEQUENCES No results and impact indicators Performance cannot be verified

Lack of coordination Data are fragmentary and of different quality and details, Data collection and reporting duplicative Workloadwhich becomes makes excessive, verification which and influences validation be difficult and motivationdata for qualityM&E and be implicitly low and dataunsuitable quality for planning Fragmented, sector based systems Gaps and overlapping in data provision No results chain Data may get stranded upwards in the system Data collection and reporting duplicative Workload becomes excessive, which influences motivation for M&E and implicitly data quality No results chain Data may get stranded upwards in the system Systems generally comprehensive and Data may be entered incorrectly or not at all, relatively too much time spent on M&E Systemscomplicated generally comprehensive and Data may be entered incorrectly or not at all, relatively complicated too much time spent on M&E Information collected too general Data remain unused. Information collected too general Data remain unused. Data not systematically used for planning Makes the purpose of M&E become blurred

Lack feed-back systems to devolved level As Above Data not systematically used for planning Makes the purpose of M&E become blurred Inadequate capacity and resources Data quality inconsistent

Lack feed-back systems to devolved level As Above The importance of breaking a Plan down into a cascade of results means that results at output level

feeds into results at outcome level which furthers feeds into results at impact level – all of which Inadequate capacity and resources Data quality inconsistent contributes piecemeal to achievement of the national goal. There shall be indicators at respective

output, outcome and impact level to be able to monitor, and later evaluate, the progress from one Thelevel importance of development of breaking to the anext. Plan down into a cascade of results means that results at output level feeds into results at outcome level which furthers feeds into results at impact level – all of which contributes piecemeal to achievement of the national goal. There shall be indicators at respective output, outcomeNoticeably, and both impact the SNDPlevel to and be R-SNDPable to monitor, suffered and from later lack evaluate, of indicators the progress beyond outputfrom one level, level which of developmentwould have madeto the itnext. impossible to monitor progress even if having had a national M&E system in Noticeably,place. It also both means the SNDP that andthe routeR-SNDP from suffered output from to achievementlack of indicators of national beyond goaloutput is level,not defined,which wouldplanned have and made budgeted it impossible for. There to monitor is thus progress disconnect even between if having thehad SNDP/R-SNDPa national M&E systemand the in vision place. of Itand also expectations means that raised the route by thefrom government. output to achievement of national goal is not defined, planned and budgeted for. There is thus disconnect between the SNDP/R-SNDP and the vision of and expectations raised by the government. When formulating cascading indicators, they should reflect the respective level of results. An example When formulating cascading indicators, they should reflect the respective level of results. An example from educationeducation below: below:

OUTCOME IMPACT OUTPUT % of enrolled youth % of all graduated % of youth enrolled in five types of graduating with XX youth in (self)- innovative TEVET education marks and receiving employment one year interest-free loans after graduation Finally, indicators at any level of results should all contribute a share, however little, to the national goal. IndicatorsFinally, indicators that do notat any reflect level results of results that shouldare required all contribute for achievement a share, ofhowever the national little, goalto the have national no relevancegoal. Indicators in an NDP that anddo not should reflect therefore results not that be inare the required plan. for achievement of the national goal have Output,no relevance outcome in an and NDP imp andact workshould as therefore a cascade not with be morein the details plan. at ward level and fewer at national level. Ward level will record the causes of coughing problems (dust, TB, pneumonia, cold etc.), while the national level will only record percentage treated for respiration problems. Each level has indicators as the yard stick with which to document the level of deliverables – or progress. 212

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Output, outcome and impact work as a cascade with more details at ward level and fewer at national level. Ward level will record the causes of coughing problems (dust, TB, pneumonia, cold etc.), while the national level will only record percentage treated for respiration problems.

Each level has indicators as the yard stick with which to document the level of deliverables – or progress.

Apart from being level specific, each stage of progress should as well have indicators as referred to in the illustration above. Sixth (Revised) National Development Plan Final Evaluation: Detailed Report

As all indicators have to be precise and easy to apply, there are certain criteria for their formulation. IndicatorsApart from have being to level be SMART: specific, each stage of progress should as well have indicators as referred to in the illustration above. As all indicators have to be precise and easy to apply, there are certain criteria for their formulation. Specific:Indicators have to be SMART: Numbers or percentage, avoiding: improved, enhanced, quality and similar which are subjective Specific: Numbers or percentage, avoiding: improved, enhanced, quality and similar which are and therefore subjectivenot possible and totherefore measure not possible to measure Measurable:Measurable: Using Using non-resource non-resource demanding demanding methods, methods, simple simple methods methods with withmanuals manuals Achievable: not over-optimistic, but realistic Achievable: not over-optimistic, but realistic Relevant: Each indicator should contribute towards a fuller picture of a given strategy its Relevant: Each indicator should contribute towards a fuller picture of a given strategy its objective. objective. ManyMany indicators indicators are are formulated formulated out out of ofinterest interest – what – what could could be nice be to niceknow to – andknow not – and not from a view thatfrom it ashall view document that it shall progressdocument towardsprogress atowards strategy a strategy and ultimately and ultimately an objective. an objective. Relevant includes “realistic”.Relevant includes “realistic”. Time-bound:Time-bound: Certain Certain strategies strategies do do not not runrun for fullfull five five years. years. In Inaddition addition some some achievements achievements have tohave to be made before others can start. It is therefore imperative to indicate when a given output be made beforeshould others be canachieved. start. ItFinally, is therefore it helps imperative in knowing to what indicate to expect when aon given the groundoutput shouldwhen be achieved. Finally,evaluating. it helps in knowing what to expect on the ground when evaluating. TheThe indicators indicators used inin the the illustr illustrationation above above are areall SMART. all SMART. If getting it wrong at this level, it is difficult to deliver holistically, effectively and efficiently at ministerial,If getting it wrongprovincial at this and level, district it is difficult level, asto targetsdeliver holistically, are not defined. effectively Further, and efficiently roles and at ministerial,responsibilities provincial and district level, as targets are not defined. Further, roles and responsibilities for achieving forthe achieving targets at the each targets level are at noteach defined. level are not defined. Finally,Finally, when when planning across across the the entire entire scope scope of results of results it is imperative it is imperative to be aware to beof thataware the ofhigher that the higherlevel results, level results, the more the difficult more to difficult influence to and influence monitor. It andcan bemonitor. illustrated It can as follows:be illustrated as follows:

Outcome: Impact: Positive & negative Input Positive & Activities change in negative changes in practices and Output state of systems situation

Sphere of control Sphere of influence Sphere of interest

As a result the methods applied at the different levels of results have to match the different needs and conditions at the respective levels. Monitoring at output level can overall be records, e.g.: number of children vaccinated, number of children 213 enrolled or number of literacy students in a given year while recording of results at outcome and impact level, both of which measures quality of practices (outcome) which aims at improved life or systemic quality (e.g. swift justice for all) can only be done using easy-to-use qualitative tools – or quantitative tools recording quality, for example percentage of GBV offenders that were a) taken to court and b) being justly convicted. If having the number of physically and socially recovered victims as a target, it is possible to have community police or community GBV support group record the data. As the latter shows, data

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As a result the methods applied at the different levels of results have to match the different needs and conditions at the respective levels.

Monitoring at output level can overall be records, e.g.: number of children vaccinated, number of children enrolled or number of literacy students in a given year while recording of results at outcome and impact level, both of which measures quality of practices (outcome) which aims at improved life or systemic quality (e.g. swift justice for all) can only be done using easy-to-use qualitative tools – or quantitative tools recording quality, for example percentage of GBV offenders that were a) taken to court and b) being justly convicted. If having the number of physically and socially recovered victims as a target, it is possible to have community police or community GBV support group record the data. As the latter shows, data may not be obtainable from the governmental system alone, when collecting data at outcome and impact level. Although involving a wider scope of data sources and methods the data collection is neither complicated nor costly if defined and planned for in the M&E strategy.

A national M&E system should build on the following criteria:

• M&E system for national strategic plans should avoid fragmented results; • Results should be few enough to facilitate use of these for planning at all levels; • All M&E should be based on a manageable number of outputs, outcomes, key results and objectives; • M&E at all levels should apply SMART indicators for substantiation of results; • M&E should cover all macro-economic actors contributing towards fulfilment of a strategy. Strategies cannot be achieved by government alone; • Data collection and handling should be manageable at all levels; • All levels of stakeholders should have direct access to one central data base holding all strategy data.

As mentioned in chapter 6.3 design, test and roll-out of an effective monitoring system takes years. But only an evidence-based monitoring system can provide data of quality and relevance for informed planning and later for an evidence-based evaluation. A brief introduction to relevant types of national evaluations are found in the following.

Ideally, a certain percentage of the budget should be allocated to M&E.

NATIONAL EVALUATIONS

The discussion has so far concerned monitoring only, since robust monitoring is a precondition for having an equally robust and astute evaluation. Is it, however, critical that the government undertakes evaluations of programmes and sector performance to ensure value for national and international funds whether investments, loans or grants. In the R-SNDP only this evaluation is mentioned as national evaluation activities.

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However, there is need for any government to conduct national evaluations. These can be thematic, e.g. health, and cut across all inputs including inputs from government, cooperating partners, private sector, Civil Society Organisations, investors etc. with the aim to fully establish the performance of a given sector. Cooperating partners will only evaluate own performance and not the total performance of a given sector or a specific focus area.

It may also be relevant to evaluate across sectors, e.g. evaluating the value and performance of inter-sectoral activities – or the adequacy of the approach to people-centred development across all sectors.

Learning and timely adjustments would be the overall purpose. These evaluations should be conducted by MNDP as the findings should as well be used for evidence-based planning.

Instead of only checking if something is “on track through systematic monitoring,” governments ought to critically reflect on whether they are “on the right track,” by questioning the fundamental assumptions on which a policy, program, or project is based. It is with this analytical approach that M&E yields insights that can be influential in shaping future policy and resource decisions.

Different types of evaluations are appropriate for answering different kinds of questions. There is no “one size fits all” evaluation template to put against the variety of questions. It is important for managers to have an understanding of the insight that can is required and thus choose the most suitable type of evaluation.

Likewise, it is important for those producing the evaluative information to understand what is needed by the decision-makers. It is not beneficial for those involved to find themselves with a mismatch between the question asked and the information provided.

National evaluations should be planned and budgeted for.

Performance logic chain assessment

The performance logic chain assessment evaluation strategy is used to determine the strength and logic behind the policy, program or project. The evaluation would address the probability of achieving that desired change, based on comparison with efforts invested in similar prior achievements. The evaluation is mainly based on desk studies and interviews.

The intention is to avoid failure from a weak design that would have little or no chance of success in achieving the intended outcomes.

In attempting to assess the present effort in comparison to past efforts, the evaluator could focus on the level of resources, timing, capacity of the individuals and organizations involved, level of expected outcomes, and so forth, to determine if the present strategy can be supported from prior experience. Likewise, in examining the research literature, the evaluator can find out if the underlying premises of the proposed initiative can be supported; for example, if an awareness campaign of citizens about government services, e.g. out-of-school-education, is likely to yield the expected results.

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Process Implementation Evaluation

The focus of process implementation evaluation is on implementation details. Such evaluations can assess: • What did or did not get implemented that was planned? • What congruence was there between what was intended to be implemented and what actually happened? • How appropriate and close to plan were the costs; the time requirements; the staff capacity and capability; the availability of required financial resources, facilities, and staff; and political support? • What unanticipated (and thus unintended) outputs or outcomes emerged from the implementation phase?

The implementation phase can be short or long. The emphasis will be to study the implementation process. Managers can use this information to determine whether they will need to make any mid- course corrections to achieve the planned outcomes.

This evaluation method is similar to monitoring but deviates by allowing for in-depth study of unanticipated outcomes. Additionally, some of the more intangible aspects of implementation, such as political support and climate, institutional readiness for change, and the trust in management to successfully lead a change effort, can be addressed.

Finally, having some understanding of where the implementation efforts are or are not on track gives a firm basis for initiating countermeasures, if needed.

Impact Evaluation

An impact evaluation attempts to define the cause-effect behind changes that occurred.

It has been common to use counterfactuals to establish impact. This is, nevertheless, not necessary as it is possible to measure if the planned change in capacity exists. When teaching people to read and calculate there is a purpose. If the purpose is to help these people establish business, then it is the percentage of literacy trained people with income generating activities that define the level of impact.

Outcome most often measures behavior change (e.g.: percentage of trained teachers that apply methods for inclusion), while impact defines the result of the same change in behavior, in this case it could be: The percentage of challenged children who complete primary school (as a result of inclusion)

Impact is overall about measuring what people do differently after exposure to new knowledge, skills, facilities etc. and determine if the difference is the intended difference. In the above case the impact of providing teachers with inclusion skills would be the completion rate of this challenged group of children.

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Impact is the ultimate level of achievement and is largely sustainable, since people who have achieved a higher or better way of living rarely give it up.

However, impact can as well be negative. In that case it is critical to know early to be able to change approach or path in time to avoid waste of resources.

A “mixed method” approach utilizing quantitative, qualitative, participatory and blended (e.g. quantifying qualitative data) approaches is now widely accepted as advisable to address the types of interventions that are now predominant in international development

Meta-Evaluation

Meta-evaluation is an evaluation of the quality of evaluations. They are most often thematic. Meta- evaluation could be conducted after for example five partner evaluations of the primary education interventions. A meta-evaluation would analyse the quality of the five evaluations with regard to e.g.:

• Compliance with OECD criteria for what to evaluate • Propriety – compliance with OECD norms for conducting evaluations • Validity • Credibility • Clarity • Cost-effectiveness of the work of each partner • Generalisability of recommendations

If a number of evaluations have been conducted on one or similar initiatives, a meta-evaluation establishes the criteria and procedures by systematically looking across those existing evaluations to summarize trends and to generate confidence (or caution) in the cross-study findings. Meta- evaluation can be a reasonably quick way of learning and relatively low-cost as the evaluation is solely desk-work.

Characteristics of Quality Evaluations

If managers are going to rely on information from an M&E system, they should question the quality and trustworthiness of the information they are getting. Poor, inaccurate, and biased information is of no use to anyone.

Acknowledging that many managers are technical specialists, in this case often Educationists they may not possess the skills and knowledge required to assess the quality in full. However, some key characteristics which are easily assessed are:

• Impartiality • The evaluation information should be free of political or other bias and deliberate distortions. The information should be presented with a description of its strengths and weaknesses. All relevant information should be presented, not just that which reinforces the views of the manager.

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• Usefulness o Evaluation information needs to be relevant, timely, and written in an understandable form. It also needs to address the questions asked, and be presented in a form desired and best understood by the manager, decision-makers and the implementing team.

• Technical adequacy o The information needs to meet relevant technical standard. As a minimum there should be (i) appropriate design; (ii) correct sampling procedure; (iii) accurate wording of questionnaires and interview guides; (iv) appropriate statistical or content analysis, and (v) adequate support for conclusions and recommendations

• Stakeholder involvement o There should be adequate proof that the relevant stakeholders have been consulted and involved in the evaluation effort. If the stakeholders are to trust the information, take ownership of the findings, and agree to incorporate what has been learned into ongoing and new policies, programs, and projects, they have to be included in the political process as active partners.

• Feedback and dissemination o Sharing information in an appropriate, targeted, and timely fashion is a characteristic of evaluation utilization.

• Value for money o Spent what was needed to gain the information desired, but no more. o Gathering expensive data or excess data that will not add to the results and thus the learning.

Evaluation information can be relevant at all phases of a policy, programme or project cycle. Evaluation information can be useful to the needs of the public sector if it comes in a timely fashion, is appropriately presented, is technically adequate, addresses questions directly and is trustworthy. Evaluation and monitoring are complementary and do in totality contribute information of key importance for effective and efficient public management.

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ANNEX 6: Listing and Analysis of Policies and Reforms: SURVEY OF (SECTOR) STRATEGIES, PLANS AND POLICIES

ESTIMATED TIME WHICH ELAPSED TIMELINE DESIGN (when policy/ ROLL- BETWEEN APPROVAL (or ENACTMENT) strategy or formulation started) OUT STILL AND INITIAL MPLEMENTATION (please tick * what applies) ONGOING? (please tick * what applies) AREA · YES More · NO, Before 2011- 2013- Up to 12 12-24 2017 3 years than 3 COMPLETE 2011 2012 2016 months months years · POLICY INACTIVE Government Public Sector Reform: √ √ NO, COMPLETE rightsizing Public Sector Reform: pay √ √ NO, COMPLETE reform Public Sector Reform: √ √ NO, COMPLETE performance management Public Sector Reform: √ √ NO, COMPLETE payroll management Public Sector Reform: √ √ YES e-Government Decentralization √ √ YES Implementation Plan: devolution Decentralization: fiscal √ √ YES decentralization National Strategy for √ √ YES Development of Statistics Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Integrated Financial √ √ YES Management Information System (IFMIS) Commitment control and √ √ NO COMPLETE financial management system Budget preparation (Output- √ √ YES Based Budgeting) Improved debt management √ √ YES Enhanced internal audit and √ √ YES control Strengthened external audit √ √ YES Public procurement reform √ √ NO COMPLETE Treasury Single Account √ √ YES (avoid ST borrowing) Fiscal policy: enhance √ √ YES capacity of Zambia Revenue Authority and tax compliance Fiscal policy: review of √ √ YES corporate & personal tax rates Fiscal policy: broadening √ √ YES the tax base and reduce tax exemptions

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ESTIMATED TIME WHICH ELAPSED TIMELINE DESIGN (when policy/ ROLL- BETWEEN APPROVAL (or ENACTMENT) strategy or formulation started) OUT STILL AND INITIAL MPLEMENTATION (please tick * what applies) ONGOING? (please tick * what applies) AREA · YES More · NO, Before 2011- 2013- Up to 12 12-24 2017 3 years than 3 COMPLETE 2011 2012 2016 months months years · POLICY INACTIVE Fiscal policy: parafiscal tax √ √ YES for skills development Fiscal policy: increase √ YES contribution of SOEs to revenue Private Sector Development (Programme) Business Licensing √ √ NO COMPLETE One-Stop-Shop for business √ √ NO COMPLETE registration Review of the regulatory √ √ NO COMPLETE framework Business Regulatory Review √ √ NO COMPLETE Agency Competition and Consumer √ √ NO COMPLETE Protection (competition Law of 1994; new Act of 2010) MSME development: √ √ √ YES Business Linkage MSME development: √ √ YES incubation centres MSME development: √ √ YES development of industrial technical centres MSME development: √ √ YES establish Kaizen Institute of Zambia National Quality √ √ YES Infrastructure (upgrading) Labour market reforms: √ √ NO, COMPLETE employment, industrial and labour relations acts) Labour market reforms: √ √ NO, COMPLETE Minimum Wages and Employment Act Labour Productivity √ √ YES Promotion/National Productivity Centre PPP policy √ √ NO, COMPLETE Trade expansion programme √ √ NO, COMPLETE Proudly Zambian Campaign √ √ NO, COMPLETE MFEZ strategy/industrial √ √ YES parks strategy Financial Sector Development Improve market √ √ NO, COMPLETE infrastructure (regulations) Increase access to finance √ √ NO, COMPLETE (policy)

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ESTIMATED TIME WHICH ELAPSED TIMELINE DESIGN (when policy/ ROLL- BETWEEN APPROVAL (or ENACTMENT) strategy or formulation started) OUT STILL AND INITIAL MPLEMENTATION (please tick * what applies) ONGOING? (please tick * what applies) AREA · YES More · NO, Before 2011- 2013- Up to 12 12-24 2017 3 years than 3 COMPLETE 2011 2012 2016 months months years · POLICY INACTIVE Regulation of Micro Finance √ √ NO, COMPLETE Institutions Establishment of Credit √ (?) √ NO, COMPLETE Guarantee schemes Payments System Reform √ √ NO, COMPLETE Agriculture National Agricultural Policy √ NO, COMPLETE National Irrigation Plan √ √ NO, COMPLETE Water Resources Action √ √ NO, COMPLETE Programme Farmer Input Support √ √ YES Programme reform Marketing Programme √ √ YES reform Emergent Farmer Support √ √ NO, POLICY Programme INACTIVE National Food Security policy √ √ National Cooperative Policy √ √ YES Land Policy/land titling √ (?) YES Mining Mining Policy √ √ NO, COMPLETE Mining fiscal regime √ YES Energy Policy for diversification of √ YES energy sources Electricity tariff reform √ YES Tourism Diversification of the tourism √ √ YES product Strengthen sector regulation √ √ YES Strengthen marketing √ √ YES Preservation of cultural √ √ YES heritage Promotion of creative √ √ YES industries Housing National Housing Policy √ NO, COMPLETE Urban Planning framework √ √ YES Transport National Transport √ √ YES Infrastructure Master Plan Transport Policy √ √ YES Railway Transport √ √ YES Infrastructure Development Information Management √ √ YES System

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ESTIMATED TIME WHICH ELAPSED TIMELINE DESIGN (when policy/ ROLL- BETWEEN APPROVAL (or ENACTMENT) strategy or formulation started) OUT STILL AND INITIAL MPLEMENTATION (please tick * what applies) ONGOING? (please tick * what applies) AREA · YES More · NO, Before 2011- 2013- Up to 12 12-24 2017 3 years than 3 COMPLETE 2011 2012 2016 months months years · POLICY INACTIVE Science, Technology and Innovation National Science and √ √ √ NO, COMPLETE Technology Policy (1996) Develop technologies √ √ YES Promotion of the √ √ YES commercialization of innovation and R&D results Environment National Policy on the √ √ NO, COMPLETE Environment Education Education reform: review of √ √ NO, COMPLETE curriculum Education reform: √ √ NO, COMPLETE prioritizing of Science, Mathematics and Technology subjects Education reform: TEVET and √ √ YES apprenticeships Education reform: upgrading √ √ YES of teachers’ qualifications Health National Health Strategic √ √ NO, COMPLETE Plan Social Health Insurance √ √ YES Scheme Social Protection Pension Reform √ √ NO, COMPLETE Social Cash Transfer scheme √ √ YES Aid Policy Joint Statement of √ √ YES Commitment Aid coordination √ √ YES Budgetary support as the √ √ YES preferred tool

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Assessment of the policy reforms and sector strategies

The table below focuses on cross-sector policies and strategies.

Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Public Sector Reform: Control wages and budget. Complex: administration. Strong pressure came from rightsizing, pay reform, Ensure equity in pay for civil IMF. performance management, servants. Opposition to payroll management implementation of Performance management Eliminate ghost workers. performance management. remains a challenge. There Leadership required. exists no performance pay Incentivize performance system. (though opportunities for promotion). Continuous training of civil servants is not done in a consistent manner; the establishment of a School of Government is planned. Public Sector Reform: Reduce costs. Complex: technical, Rolling out e-Government is Improve service delivery. innovative solutions an ongoing process e-Government required. Decentralization Bringing Government closer Complex: administration, Decentralization is not to the citizen; improve human and physical complete without fiscal service delivery. resources required. decentralization. Improve planning and Champions are required A measure of equalization implementation. to overcome opposition at (solidarity) between rich Increase efficiency through the Centre and to drive the and poor regions must better coordination at the process. exist. local level. Strengthen accountability The process is not and transparency. complete. Furthermore, as Auditor General Reports demonstrate financial management in the Districts is not following best practices (a lot of irregularities are observed).

With selection and recruitment and performance management pushed down to the Districts, the centre-based Public Service Management division will have to strengthen oversight over the Districts. National Strategy for Ensure that decision Feasibility: costly in terms Constraint: funding for Development of Statistics makers have the accurate of Surveys to be conducted. Surveys. data on a timely basis. Improve monitoring and Complex: human resources evaluation. required. Integrated Financial Ensure oversight by Complex: technical and Complete. But the system Management Information Ministry of Finance over human resources required. was down at the time of the System (IFMIS); financial status of spending mission. commitment control and ministries, Provinces and financial management agencies during budget execution. Treasury Single Account Ensure that commitments stay in line with the Budget.

To avoid ST borrowing.

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Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Budget preparation (Output- Improve allocation Complex: human resources Resistance to changing Based Budgeting) efficiency. capacity building required. practices is often encountered. Focus on performance and Leadership required. results (goals, targets, Evaluation of outcomes is indicators) and away from still challenging. inputs.

Improve effectiveness of management.

Strengthen accountability. Debt management Inform decision makers Human resources capacity The system in itself about public debt status. building required. does not guarantee that politicians follow good Manage debt service. practices. Enhanced internal audit and Ensure Value for Money of Human resources required. Spending entities enjoy control, and external audit public expenditure. information asymmetry over the Auditor General’s Office.

Parliament must exercise its scrutiny role.

Spending entities should follow up on findings. Public Procurement Reform Ensure Value for Money Complexity: Human The system does not for public expenditure that resources, guarantee in itself better passes through tenders. Innovative solutions. value compared to private Devolution required. procurement. Ensure competition. Ensure transparency and A database with price accountability. information must be maintained to verify Ensure an appeals and whether price quotations complaints procedure are realistic. exists. Control for c Value for Money must be orruption. ensured also in the contract management phase. Fiscal policy reform: Widen the tax base and Complex in terms of The Government has not improve equity (make expertise required and been able to significantly Enhance capacity of the the tax system more impact assessment. raise domestic revenue Revenue Authority. progressive). Complex in terms of mobilization. formalizing the informal The statutory corporate Review of direct tax rates Improve tax compliance. sector and going after tax income tax rate (35%) and royalties. evasion. is high (sixth highest in Simplification (which lowers the World among 202 Governance of State-Owned compliance costs). jurisdictions) and is thus Enterprises. penalizing industry. Increase the contribution of Fiscal Reform must take SOEs to revenue. into account how taxes Capturing equitable natural affect incentives that may resource rents. alter economic behaviour. Every policy tends to have losers who will oppose it: examples removing exemptions (tax holidays for investors) or operating a tax shift (i.e. reducing taxation on labour while increasing indirect taxation and taxation on wealth). Formalizing the informal sector remains a challenge.

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Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Business Regulation Reducing the Cost of Doing Complex in terms human Some resistance to change reform Business (direct costs, resources and innovative must be overcome by (business licensing, One- compliance costs, long term solutions (process re- Leadership. Stop-Shop for business structural costs). engineering) required. registration) Zambia is in the middle Simplification of of the table of Doing procedures. Business. Progress was Reducing cycle times of therefore achieved although procedures. long cycle times are still recorded (enforcing Reducing opportunities for contracts, construction corruption. permits). Business Regulation Regulation to serve clearly Complex in terms human Resistance to change (“not reform: identified policy goals and resources. invented here syndrome”) be effective in achieving must be overcome. Review of the regulatory these goals. framework. Business Regulatory Review Reducing the Cost of Doing Agency (under the Ministry Business; produce benefits of Commerce, Trade and that justify costs; minimize Industry) distortions.

Simplification of procedures (be clear, simple and practical for users).

Harmonization towards international standards. Micro and SME Goal is continuous Complex in terms of Overall assessment is development: productivity improvement design of programmes, that resources allocated and entrepreneurship human resources required are largely insufficient to Business upgrading development. (technical expertise), costs, achieve the goals. and Labour Productivity M&E. Promotion (National Private Sector Development No real network of technical Productivity Centre). is a catalyst for employment centres exists. generation. Business linkages. Labour productivity Business incubation Business Linkages: link promotion should fall under centres. SMEs as suppliers to large the Ministry responsible for companies. Industry Development of industrial technical centres. Kaizen institute.

The MCTI finalized (in 2016) the National Industrial Policy and commenced developing the National Trade Policy. National Quality Promote standards, quality Complex in terms of Continued investments are Infrastructure development management, and safety of technical expertise required. Maintenance products for the users. required, costs (laboratory of laboratories has to be equipment and operation) ensured. Laboratories Facilitate access to foreign and human resources for should generate revenue for markets. market surveillance. the services they provide. Trade expansion Improve access to foreign Complex in terms of human The programme programme markets for Zambian resources and information. should be linked with The MCTI commenced (in products. Costly export promotion Productivity Improvement 2016) the National Export programmes. (as productivity is a Strategy. pre-condition to export diversification and growth).

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Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Proudly Zambian Campaign Promote the national Programme should be consumption of Zambian linked to entrepreneurship products. development, quality and productivity improvement to bring more local products to the shelves. MFEZ strategy/industrial Accelerating industrial Feasibility: costly but The strategy does not zones strategy development/diversification, potentially high impact. seem to be a frank success export development and Complex in terms of getting in Zambia in spite of the employment creation. the management model potential, mainly because of right. a) management issues, b) Promoting technology Customary land tenancy is a investor targeting issues, c) dissemination. constraint in Zambia. the cost of land, d) lack of titling, short leasing period, Attracting foreign investors. lagging infrastructure development in the zones. Balancing regional development and managing land use. Public-Private Partnership A mechanism for engaging Complex in terms Some projects face policy potential stakeholders in of human resources resistance from vested the delivery of government (technical expertise, interests (including civil policy objectives. transaction expertise). servants). Innovation (service delivery, Citizens need to be To overcome Government competition models). consulted. budget constraints for In the absence of regulatory By charging “market capital projects. framework, goods and prices”, one may place services may not be essential goods and To bring in technical provided at the socially services beyond the reach expertise, best practice optimal level. of the poor. management expertise, Government should not increase operating overestimate the potential efficiency and maintenance, of PPPs to mobilize funds increase responsiveness for investment projects. to customers, to reduce Not everything is suitable political intervention. for a PPP model. Labour market reforms: Goals are: Complexity: maintaining a Minimum wages Employment and industrial Protection of workers’ balance between workers’ should take into and labour relations. rights and living conditions. conditions and the need for account sector specific labour market flexibility, conditions, international Employment Act. Flexibility of the labour the balance between competitiveness and market. incumbents and the distortions from setting Minimum Wages policy. unemployed. high wages in the civil Ensuring decent pay. service. Regulatory reform for the Ensure capital adequacy of Complexity: human Banking supervision is not financial sector. commercial banks, prudent resources required for perfect, but neither has it Regulation of Micro Finance financial management, and monitoring/supervising the been in the USA and Europe Institutions. solvency. sector; analytical capacities. (see the financial crisis). Non-Performing Loans in Protect clients/savers. Zambia are too large (Gross Stimulate financial NPL of 12% mid 2017). innovation.

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Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Financial sector Increase access to finance. A policy may be in place (i.e. development: a regulatory framework) but Access to finance. achievements are yet far Establishment of Credit from significant (e.g. credit Guarantee Schemes (2017). guarantee scheme).

Commercial banks are conservative: limited LT financing for the private sector (in particular SMEs), well below what is observed in other lower middle- income countries, at high real interest rates (nominal interest rates as high as 40% in 2017), and collateral requirements.

Little contribution of the Development Bank of Zambia to economic development. Payment System Reform Ensure a secure and cost- Complex in terms of human Payments system is efficient payments system. resources (technical adequate. expertise). Agricultural development: Goals: Feasibility: funding Overall the policy has requirements. not achieved the goals of National Agricultural Policy Diversification of diversification, neither agricultural production. Complexity: human productivity improvement National Irrigation Plan resources. among smallholders, nor Improved productivity. Costly administration. even poverty reduction. Water Resources Action Making agriculture less Programme dependent on rain. There exist issues of beneficiary targeting, Emergent Farmer Support Poverty reduction. inappropriate management Programme (support for Ensuring food security and models and de facto mechanization) securing good prices for ineffective agricultural crops (maize) extension services. National Cooperative Policy Provide guidelines on The Food Security Policy National Food Security cooperative development. focuses on maize. Policy and Marketing Introduction of the Programme Reform Agricultural sector e-voucher system reduces modernization: farmer administration cost and Farmer Input Support access to improved seeds, enables more involvement Programme reform fertilizer and other inputs. of the private sector. Land Policy/land titling Ensure access to land for Requires significant human The policy is sensitive productive use and housing resources. and therefor requires development. Leadership. Progress Costly administration. in titling is slow and this Increase tax revenue constitutes a binding collection. Opportunities for constraint. innovation.

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Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Mining: Ensure continuous Requires human resources The fiscal regime should be development of for monitoring, funding for stable. Mining policy. Zambia’s mining sector, geological mapping. diversification to other The current formula Mining fiscal regime. minerals. for variable royalties (depending on copper Ensure equitable sharing price in LME) is considered of revenues between the positive by the mining Nation, local communities industry. and mining companies. Energy: Diversification of energy Feasibility: significant large Heavy focus on hydro- Policy for diversification of resources. funding requirements. power plants in a context energy sources (coal, solar). Energy security for of erratic or falling rainfall. economic development. Insufficient anticipation of Electricity tariff reform. climate change. Tourism: Diversification of the Complexity: significant Government is essentially tourism product to attract funding requirements. a facilitator. It is for private Strengthen sector more tourists. entrepreneurs to select the regulation. Promotion of Zambia as a right business model. destination for tourists. Zambia is considered a Establishment of a tourism Regulation to ensure that high-cost destination, fund through a tourism levy standards are adhered primarily because of high (2015). transport costs. Strengthen marketing. Strong seasonality of Preservation of cultural the industry; risk of low heritage and promotion of capacity utilization. creative industries. Housing: Affordable and quality Complexity: human and Land use is inefficient. National Housing Policy. housing for everyone. financial resources. Towns (e.g. Lusaka) are Urban Planning Framework. growing laterally which Ensuring planned urban disproportionally increases development which demands for roads, optimizes land use, electricity transmission, demands for infrastructure, water and sanitation mix of residential areas and systems. areas of economic activity. More leadership is required.

Transport: Ensure balanced use of the Considerable funding Rail transport loses ground different transport modes requirements. against road transport in National Transport (road, rail, water). Need for selectivity. spite of the fact that unit Infrastructure Master Plan. costs are potentially lower. Reduce unit transport costs. Transport Policy. Leadership in decision Enable national market making is required to Railway Transport integration. promote rail transport. Infrastructure Development. Science, Technology and Embed Science and Complexity: significant Research institutions Innovation: Technology as part of the human and funding should follow best National Science and corporate culture. requirements. management practices. Technology Policy. Strengthen innovation of the Strong selectivity in productive sectors. choosing programmes.

Development and commercialization of technologies.

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Policy area Goals and Importance Feasibility and Complexity Other variables Environment: Strengthened of It is important to promote National Policy on the environmental impact alternative sources of Environment. assessment and energy and technologies compliance. to replace charcoal for cooking.

Awareness about protecting the environment should be stepped up. Education reform: Implement curricula which Considerable human and In a context of high improve employability funding requirements. population growth, the Curriculum review. of graduates (salaried Ministries responsible for employment and self- Coordination required with Education are constantly Prioritizing of Sciences, employment). other sectors: electricity, caught in the dilemma of Mathematics and construction, ICT. pursuing quantity or quality. Technology subjects Ensure that Zambia has the critical human resources Need to periodically monitor The use of ICT needs to TVET and apprenticeships. with a strong background in the learning experience of be enhanced to lessen the sciences and technology. pupils and students. demographic pressure Upgrading of teachers’ of recruiting and training qualifications. Promote quality education teachers. and improve transition and completion rates. A system of quota should be introduced such as Ensure that all youths can to control enrolment enter the labour market of students in tertiary with marketable skills. education outside Sciences and Technology. Health: Improve the health status Considerable human and In a context of high National Health Strategic of citizens such as to allow funding requirements. population growth, the Plan. them having a productive Ministry of Health is Social Health Insurance life. constantly caught in the Scheme. dilemma of pursuing The Social Health Insurance quantity or quality. Scheme should generate complementary funding for the health sector (through cost sharing). Social Protection: Development without Potentially costly in terms The systems should be Pension Reform. leaving anyone behind. of human resources and designed to ensure that Social Cash Transfer Ensure that retired administration. citizens are not incentivized Scheme. people have a predictable to stay in an entitlement (inflation-adjusted) income. mind-set and that people in employment do not go into early retirement. The Pension Fund should invest funds in a smart way to protect members’ assets. Avoid that assets become a captive source of funding the Government budget deficit. Aid Policy: Increase the effectiveness The Government should of aid. reduce reliance on aid for Joint Statement of Government wishes the high priority programmes. Commitment. increasing use of budgetary Cooperating partners Aid Coordination. support as the preferred largely ignored a Code of tool; however there is no Conduct drafted by the GRZ budgetary support currently (JASZ). to Zambia because the IFIs consider that Zambia does not comply with the criteria for budgetary support. Strengthened predictability of aid.

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ANNEX 7:

List of Key Performance Indicators and Deliverables

The table below reviews KPIs which were included in SNDP and R-SNDP

Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) Macro output level GDP growth rate 6.40% ˃7% ˃7% 6.4% (APR) 3.4% (APR) 5.1% (CSO) Average annual inflation % 9.90% 5% 5% 7.10% 17.90% Unemployment 15% 10% 5% 7.8% (2012) 15.8% (2015) +12 yrs Average weighted Lending Rates 24% ˂15% 16.40% 15.50% FDI: investment pledges (US$ billion) 2 -2015 1.5 0.555 Share of Exports in GDP 35.1% (goods & 33.20% 40% 52.80% services) Macro management policies International reserves (months of import 3.6 cover) -2010 4 3.1 2.6 Domestic borrowing as % of GDP 2.20% 0.80% ˂1.5% 6.50% 1.40% Public Debt as % of GDP 25.20% ˂27% 28.50% 32.10% Domestic revenue as % of GDP 14.80% ˃20% 23% 20.20% 18.10% Overall Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP 6.80% 4.90% ˂4% (Plan:4.3%) 5.8% (prelim.) Public wages bill as % of GDP 8% ˂8% 8.20% 8.80% Number of Ministries and Provinces operating the IFMIS system 8 48 14 44 % of heads whose actual expenditures is between 95% and 105% of the total funding 45% 100% 100% 100% % of expenditure types being processed Calculated through Treasury Single Account (TSA) 0% 100% No data differently Economic Transformation Formal employment as a % of Labour Force 8.50% 20% No data No data Formal sector employment as % of employed population 15.40% 27% 16.1% (2014) Paid employees as % of employed 22.40% population 48% 75% 22.5% (2014) -2016 Construction of a 400 MW coal fired power 1st phase of plant 300 MW 55% 1st phase 100% 1 complete complete Amount of electricity generating capacity 1 MW from renewable energy sources 1.75 MW 5 MW -2012 20 MW 31,75 MW (Plan:10 MW) 14.06 MW Land brought under irrigation 4,000 (cum. 2,395 ha change) (Plan: 500 ha) 400 ha 17,800 ha new 170,000 ha +17,500 ha 177,000 ha (2013) land Agriculture exports as a % of non-traditional exports 41% 55% 45% 28% 30.70% Number of facilities to process mineral ores 22 (refineries, smelters) 22 25 Plan: 23 Manufacturing: share of total exports 2% 4% 5.60% 9.20% Manufacturing annual growth rate 4.50% 2.50% 5% 8.70% (Plan:4%) 1.90% Manufacturing: share of Total Employment 3.22% 4% No data

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Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) Manufacturing: share of total GDP 8.40% 9.10% 6.20% 7.60% Agriculture: share of total GDP 18% (2012) 23% 8.2% (?) 19% Share of Non-traditional exports in total 35.30% exports 23% 30% 41% Plan:27.3% 27.70% Share of Non-traditional exports in GDP 13.30% 17% 18% 8.40% Number of internet subscribers per 1,000 18.5 people 1.5 2.5 360 (?) (Plan:24) Crop Diversification Index (area planted to Maize/area planted to major crops) 1.04 (2012) 0.83 ˃1 1.2 (APR) Equity, Poverty reduction Gini Coefficient Z=57.1 (2015) WB Z=52.6 Z=38 Na 2015 estimate Zambia/Rural/Urban R=43.5 R=40 Z=69 U=46.8 U=42 R=60 U=61 Headcount Poverty 59.60% ˂38% Na 60.50% 54.4% (2015) Extreme Poverty 37% ˂29% Na 42.30% 40.8% (2015) Rural Poverty 77% ˂50% Na 77.90% 76.6% (2015) Construction of housing units each year 180 150,000 -2014 Upgrading of unplanned settlements 146 total % of households with access to electricity Z=no data R=10 Z=no data Z=22 Z=41.7 U=30 U=44 (2014) R=4.4% R=3.5 R=15 R=8 (target=27.5) U=67.3% % of rural households within 2 km of all- season passable road No data 80% % of households living between 0-5 km of a Z=83.5 Z=90 basic school R=79.6 R=85 U=91.4 U=95 % of population with access to safe water R=55 (P:69) R=51.5 supply R=53 R=75 R=80 U=83.5 U=89.2 U=74 U=80 U=88 (P:77) (2015: CSO) % of population with access to adequate R=35 (P:53) sanitation R=33 R=60 R=65 U=57.3 U=37 U=60 U=75 (P:52) No data % of households living between 0-5 km of a Z=68.1 Z=70 health facility R=54.5 R=60 U=93 U=97 R=73 No data Underweight prevalence 13.10% 15% 10% 15% -2015 Wasting prevalence amongst under-5 6.30% children 5.20% 4.50% (total) 6.60% Facility deliveries for rural areas Zambia Zambia 66% 28% (2007) 50% 64% (2014) (2016) % of women in decision making positions in 18% the public sector 16% 30% -2014 15% (P:40%) number of women in formal sector employment as % of total formal sector 75.9% (?) employment 21% 30% (2014) No data Number of bursaries to marginalized groups 1000 5,000 1,350 (P:1,350) (Tertiary education) (annual) (4 years) TEVET Gender Parity Index Grades 10-12 0.84 0.87 0.93 0.84 (Plan:0.9) 0.86 (second.) Women capacity built in livelihood 500,000 diversification and accessing credit facilities (total) Households supported in weather related 125,000 insurance (2015) Micro-credit to Low Capacity Households 75,000 69,450 (4 2,330 (total) years) (P:15,000) 4,714 women

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Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) (P:6,500) Community Self Help Initiatives supported 1,000 1,000 (2015) (2016) 54 12 Food Security Pack Programme (households 175,000 200,000 (4 32,000 supported) (total) years) (P:35,000) 29,930 (P:45,000) Public Welfare Assistance Scheme 250,000 300,000 0 beneficiaries (2015) (2016) 75,895 (no funding!) Social Cash Transfer Scheme beneficiaries 69,000 74,000 242,000 (households) (2015) (2016) 61,000 (eligible: 590,000) Old Age Pension (beneficiaries) 300,000 (2015) School feeding 868,915 1 million (P:700,000) Percentage of working population contributing to social security scheme 14.50% 35% 10.7% (2014) National Social Health Insurance Scheme coverage: Government employees 95% Private sector 90% Informal Sector 50% Sector output level Rate of growth in agriculture 7.20% 2% 10% -3.80% 3.70% Rate of growth in energy 6.80% 2% 8% -1.5% (2015) Rate of growth in construction 9.50% 16% -3.50% 18% (2015) Rate of growth in tourism 3.8% -13.40% 16% (accommod.) Net Enrolment Rate Grades 1-7 100 100 107% 90.40% Net Enrolment Rate Grades 8-9 31.80% Second. 42% 25.40% 30 45 47 (P:42%) (Gr 8-12) Net Enrolment Rate Grades 10-12 28% 27 36 38 (Plan:32%) TEVET places 33,000 50,000 66,114 28% (P:32%) 37,400 Completion Rate Grade 7 (%) 99% 91.7 100 98 (Plan:98%) Completion Rate Grade 9 (%) 61,5% 51.98 67 70.5 (Plan:63%) 69.20% Completion Rate Grade 12 (%) 31% 19.47 38 39 (Plan:31%) 36.80% TEVET completion rates F=45% M=60% F=56% F=80% -2012 M=68% No data M=74% Projected annual enrolments in training institutions: Data on Medical doctors 160 500 graduates, Clinical officers 335 830 not Nurses and midwives 1583 5,901 enrolments Cattle stock 11.90% 3.038 million 6.649 million 5.1 million Plan:18% 4.984 million Pigs stock -39.40% 466,506 785,203 1.43 million Plan:15% 3.048 million Fish production under aquaculture 56.10% 8,127 MT 13,759 MT 36,932 MT Plan:10% 27,658 MT Employment in the mining sector 46,706 70,000 69,310 Copper production 661,178 MT 994,463 MT 851,536 770,597 P:863,838 P:1 million Tourism: international visitors 914,576 (Plan:1,03 709,948 1,25 million million) 956,332

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Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) Annual direct tourism earnings (US$ million) 856 368 200 449 (Plan:312) -2015 Tourism: employment 57,337 27,412 45,000 (P:36,000) 75,393 (2015) Hotels: occupancy rates (%) 69.80% 60% 75% 73% (P:68%) -2015 Length of stay for tourists (days) 7 14 6 No data (Plan:10) Annual rate of deforestation (ha) Over Less than 299,000 250,000 250,000 (P:˂260,000) Timber to manufacturing (m3) 451,000 711,000 No data ZRL&TAZARA passengers transported (not a KPI!) 867,946 (909,741 in 2012) ZRL& TAZARA cargo transported (not a KPI!) 1.014 million Target is that 60% of cargo be transported by T rail (target NOT met) (P:0.823) 762,410 T Input level Percentage of SNDP annual budget allocation released (total and in each priority sector) 100% % of aid disbursed annually according to commitments reflected in MTEF 100% Hectares of land under irrigation 187,500 4,000 170,000 (total) (change) Forest plantation expansion (ha) (annual increment) 60,000 85,000 Total national electricity generation (capacity) 180 MW (change) (Plan:120 1,918 2,912 3,121 MW) 2,259 Roads constructed (km) 6780 Roads upgraded (km) Progress 704 70% (2014) Trunk Main and District Roads Upgrading to 174 km Paved Standard 2760 km (P:376) Trunk Main and District Roads Rehabilitation 114.4 km Paved 1215 km (P:285) Trunk Main and District Roads Rehabilitation 994 km unpaved 5171 km (P:2,802) Trunk Main and District Roads Maintenance Paved 2837 km Trunk Main and District Roads Routine Progress Maintenance 37% 84199 km -2014 Primary Feeder Roads rehabilitation unpaved 7198 km Feeder Roads Maintenance unpaved 25913 km Rural roads programme (construction, 1444 km rehabilitation and maintenance) (P:2001.8) On-going road works 2234 km (P:6610) Railway infrastructure rehabilitation 1150 km 2184 km (total (total SNDP) R-SNDP) 261 km Development of Railway infrastructure 390 km District hospitals completed and established 31 9 completed to 19+6 (4 years) date

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Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) New health posts constructed 400 650 (total) (4 years) 253 (total) Health centres improved and expanded 250 (total) Universities constructed 6 3 (total) (4 years) Construction of basic school classrooms 10,000 6,000 (total) (4 years) Construction of upper basic schools (Grades 20 90 8-9) (total) (4 years) Construction and completion of High Schools 106 104 (total) (4 years) Construction of additional classrooms in existing high schools in rural areas by 496 2,000 community mode (total) (4 years) Rehabilitation of high schools 150 150 (total) (4 years) Dam construction based on climate resilient 16 29 0 1 completed, 8 in design considerations (total) (4 years) (Plan:3) progress (Plan:10) Rehabilitation of dams based on climate 100 80 1 5 in progress resilient design considerations (total) (4 years) (Plan:1) (Plan:8) Development of boreholes for productive use 400 29 in farm blocks 1,000 (total) (4 years) (Plan:90) Construction of rural boreholes 4,000 2,000 6,000 (total) (4 years) (P:1,895) Rehabilitation of boreholes and wells 2,800 3,445 (total) (4 years) Construction of sanitary facilities (latrines) 304,274 239,000 (4 (total) years) Construction irrigation schemes Plan: 693 ha 33 sites (2015) 30 projected Achievement: ˂ (total) (12,952 ha) 50% Silos construction (total capacity) 350,000 MT In progress Silo rehabilitation (number) 1 5 (in progress) Construction of livestock breeding centres 12 (total) Construction of livestock service centres 1,400 (total) Mines in production (licenses) S:81 L:14 Small:100 Small:150 Plan:120 and Large:11 Large:16 14 Redesign and upgrade exhibitions in national 4 museums (total) Community based tourism established 10 (total) Cultural villages completed 7 (total) Bed space in hospitality industry 19,000 25,500 124,982 Establishment of MFEZ and Industrial Parks 4 +2 (total) 3 6 parks developed Business Incubators established 5 (total) 0 Districts to be connected to optic fibre cables 25 6 (total) (Plan:5) Number of analogue transmitters replaced 63 1 with digital transmitters (total) (Plan:84)

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Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) National Parks benefit from restocking and 7 stocking (total) Reforestation with eucalyptus and pine trees 9,000 ha (total) Reforestation of natural forests 6,000 ha (total) 322.6 ha Number of Research and Development Units 26 4 (2014) 8 constructed and rehabilitated (Total) P:8 (Plan:8) Productivity factors and indicators Labour productivity: GDP per person employed No data No target Literacy rate of population aged 15+ 73% est. No data 50 -2015 Functional literacy & skills training (persons 200,000 supported) (total) Life expectancy at birth M=48 M=55 Male/Female F=52 F=58 53.3 (2015) Stunting prevalence amongst under-5 40% 40.10% children 45% 30% 27% -2014 -2015 Number of health centres with at least one qualified Health Worker 50% 100% 100% Positions created in the Public Health Services: Medical doctors 2014 2016 Clinical officers 68 (2011) 591 cumulative cumulative Nurses and midwives 87 (2011) 600 1,380 1,514 832 5,737 1,647 1,783 Targets: 13,520 14,807 Medical doctors: 2.939 Clinical officers: 4,813 Midwives and nurses: 23,603 % of people with HIV/AIDS who receive ARV 95% 68% 90% 93% (Plan:87%) Incidence of malaria for all ages (per 1000 of population) 252 (2008) 75 50 No data 376 Malaria case fatality rate among children 23 under five years (per 1,000) (Plan:25) 19 % of aid disbursements released according to agreed schedules 100% Public Satisfaction in the delivery of public services 49% 85% Collection and disposal of solid waste in 48% designated sites in urban local authorities 35% 65% 65% (Plan:50%) Procurement of textbooks 3.75 million 1.84 million (total) (4 years) Recruitment of teachers 16,000 (total) Recruitment of teachers (primary) 12,000 (4 years) Recruitment of teachers (secondary) 8,000 (4 years) Teachers trained 14,000 (total) Teachers upgraded (diploma or degree level) 125 in TEVET 125 (total) (4 years) Construction of teachers’ houses 2,080 1,000 (total) (R-SDP) Pupil Teacher Ratio Grades 1-4 46.4 57.2 40 44 (Plan:48)

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Target Outturn Outturn 2016 KPI Baseline Target 2015 2016 2013 (APR) Pupil Teacher Ratio Grades 5-7 51.4 52.1 40 47 (Plan:44) 60.3 (primary) Pupil Teacher Ratio Grades 8-9 24.1 28.2 35 37 (Plan:33) Pupil Teacher Ratio Grades 10-12 36.9 24.9 25 35 (Plan:25) Extension workers employed (crops) 1,559 4,965 (total) 941 (2013) (target:2,132) Rehabilitation of camp houses 7 1,000 (total) (Plan:73) Extension workers recruited (livestock) 2.611 (total) Tourism: road shows and fairs 25 (total) Not specified International conventions held 30 Not (total) documented Number of arts and cultural practitioners 15,000 3,815 supported (2015) (Plan:1000) Credit facilitation to MSMEs (above K50m) 250 (total) Business licensing reforms 110 (total) 20 (target:30) Establishment of One-stop-Shops 9 (total) 2 (total) National Parks with adopted management 20 plans (total) Training of forestry graduates 520 (total) Protected forest areas reclassified as nature 7 (total) Yield maize (MT/ha) 1.9 (2012) 4 1.93 2.1 Yield paddy rice (MT/ha) 1.3 (2012) 2 1.16 1.04 Yield soya bean (MT/ha) 1.48 (2012) 2 2.09 1.84

Priority sectors: health, education, energy, agriculture, infrastructure, water and sanitation, tourism and natural resources; rural water and supply, rural electrification, feeder roads, number of districts accessing telecom services (no target), number of financial service institutions operational in rural areas (no target) Other KPIs: Immunization Rates Infant, Child and Maternal Mortality Rates Percentage of households using salt iodized with 20-40 ppm Total Employed (% of Labour Force) Informal Employment as a % of Labour Force Percentage of Aid on Budget Tax revenue as a % of GDP and non-tax revenue as a % of GDP Budgetary releases as % of Budget allocation Number of MPSAs submitting monthly reports on time Number of MPSAs with enhanced commitment control system Backlog of cases Level of compliance to environmental regulations & safeguards (% of total number of facilities) Additional petroleum storage capacity (150 million litres by 2015)

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ANNEX 8: Consolidated Scorings from Human Development (Related) Sectors

FIVE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT MINISTRIES – CONSOLIDATED RESULTS

POSITIVE IM- NEGATIVE IM- WHAT HAS NOT WHAT HAS PACT PACT PROPOSED ITEM WORKED SO WORKED WELL UNINTENDED UNINTENDED CHANGES WELL EFFECTS EFFECTS

1 Policies and reforms a) Policies a) Effect yet to a) Do not a) Not possible 1) Relevance relevant be seen come with to implement 2) Usefulness implementation them b) Gender Act b) It will put plan/strategy passed focus- in place the and budget b) Affects ing on gender gender Com- planned growth equity and mission, which b) Inconsisten- negatively equality. will ensure cies in policies enforcement e.g. between c) Ministries c) Social Pro- food security inefficiently tection Policy c) Efficient and export continue working where efforts delivery in silos are coordinated c) No policy at central level supports inter- sectoral efficiency 3 SNDP/R-SNDP a) Vision 2030 a) Optimism 1) Relevance for V2030 not robust preferred by 2) Relevance for your politicians sector b) Vision 2030 3) Relevance for devel- sets targets b) Lack of defini- opment in Zambia without defin- tion of capacities 4) Inclusive ing and having makes it impos- 5) Planning process required capaci- sible to ensure ties that capacity is available across c) Planning all levels a top-down process c) Budget and d) Activities do plans not ad- often not match equate plan. E.g. establishment of new d) Further eats districts from the budget for planned activities 4 Financial matters a) The budget a) Only few does not match targets fully met. 1) Budget vs targets the targets (2) As a consequence 2) Exp. vs budget the progress 3) Disbursement b) Later cuts report for /NDP 4) Accounting again will not have the 5) Auditing new data

b) The planned growth negatively affected

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NEGATIVE POSITIVE IMPACT WHAT HAS NOT WHAT HAS IMPACT PROPOSED ITEM UNINTENDED WORKED SO WORKED WELL UNINTENDED CHANGES EFFECTS WELL EFFECTS 5 Systems a) Have a) Planning a) Lack system a) Plans • Need model 1) Methods gradually made easier or tools for less effective exceeding 2) Routine developed since b) coherent planning efficient than five year 3) Procedures the Fifth NDP Administration across sectors necessary planning b) Quite strong made easier b) Reports from b) Makes cycle in statistical c) Lack of sectors often not surveys/ • Collection programmes sufficient staffing complete census produce of sector c) Systems for makes the systems c) Transfer different relevant data decentralised be under-utilised of gender focal situational child development d) Allows for points not known pictures than having child adherence to local the reports development needs c) Capacities coordinators at are lost district level 6 Structures a) Have a) Planning a) Progress a) Make determining gradually made easier reports not comparisons developed since uniform in of results be 1) Authority the Fifth NDP b) chapters difficult 2) Rights & Administration duties b) Gender made easier b) Planners and b) The lack 3) focal point in all politicians collide, of long-term Communication ministries (2) c) (Not as planners stay planning a attractive, as it and politicians blockage for means extra work) risk leaving after growth, which five years making requires them emphasise decades to on shorter term materialise achievements and not a longer term building of results 7 Human a) One stop a) Effect not a) Operating development GBV centres in known with around 50% 1) Sector hospitals or less of the Achievements of allocated staffing KPI targets 2) Financial capacity 3) Technical capacity 4) (Knowledge, staff, equipment etc.) 5) Infrastructure 8 Gender a) Gender a) · Directors, mainstreaming: mainstreaming Achievements PS and 1) Gender in difficult, as can minimal parliamentarians sector policy only be achieved b) Activities should 2) Gender in through other not designed understand activity design ministries and therefore gender 3) Gender in – especially not reported mainstreaming to monitoring planning on accordingly. ensure support of 4) Gender in b) The Ultimately officers in charge reporting concept not well gender relevant of planning, understood by data not budgeting and planners and line available M&E ministries

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9 National a) Missing link a) Outcome, • Need for Monitoring and in data provision which is growth, data literacy Evaluation syst. & chain from output cannot be among structures to outcome verified and decision- defined makers 1) Applicability b) Only little policy analysis b) Adequacy 2) not known with Implementation c) Capacity the risk of non- insufficient in data abidance 3) Data analysis analysis c) Planning 4) Data use for d) Sectors is based on planning not upgraded to raw data and handle effective not evidence of 5) Validity M&E cause-effect

6) Reporting e) M&E systems d) See above close to not 7) Infrastructure existing e) M&E is low quality and thus f) High staff not applicable turn-over among for evidence- M&E skilled staff based planning

g) Understaffing f) See above in M&E dept. g) See above 10 Sustainability of:

1) Systems

2) Structures

3) Achievements

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KASAMA AND MONGU PDCC FOCUS GROUPS AND INTERVIEWS (The two provinces had very different experiences, so the apparent balanced scoring is rather an expression of significant differences in development)

POSITIVE NEGATIVE WHAT HAS IMPACT WHAT HAS NOT IMPACT PROPOSED ITEM WORKED UNINTENDED WORKED SO WELL UNINTENDED CHANGES WELL EFFECTS EFFECTS 1 Policies and Policies do not They often reforms come with needs remain a piece assessment for HR, of paper a) Relevance logistics and budget b) Usefulness 3 SNDP/R-SNDP Ideas relevant, but a) Relevance for unrealistic. V2030 b) Relevance for Reality on ground your sector and local inputs c) Relevance for not sufficiently development in considered at Zambia central level d) Inclusive e) Planning process 4 Financial matters Wide gap in number of required staff at a) Budget vs district level targets b) Exp. vs budget c) Disbursement d) Accounting e) Auditing 5 Systems a) Methods b) Routine c) Procedures

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POSITIVE IMPACT NEGATIVE IMPACT WHAT HAS WHAT HAS NOT PROPOSED ITEM UNINTENDED UNINTENDED WORKED WELL WORKED SO WELL CHANGES EFFECTS EFFECTS 6 Structures Mgt. top-down and determining not bottom-up, not a) Authority even under 7NDP. b) Rights & Decentralisation duties should have been c) introduced step Communication by step, while establishing the required infrastructures and organisational systems and structures HR capacities not adequate for decentralisation 8 Productive sectors a) Achievements (% of KPI target) b) Sector/technical capacity (equipment, knowledge/skills) c) Financial capacity d) Markets e) Infrastructure 9 Human a) a) Improved a) Across sectors a) Qualified and Educated staff development Empowerment livelihoods achievements far well-performing in adequate a) Sector of low capacity b) As above from targets – 20- staff ask for numbers Achievements of HHs c) Improved 80% of targets, transfer resulting in Housing in KPI targets b) Cash quality of because: substandard health place b) Financial transfer to education • Very few full and education in the Medicine, capacity incapacitated provision, more achievements area – which further books and c) Technical HHs qualified teachers due to retains the poverty hygiene in capacity c) Gazetting employed in these inadequate level. order in all (Knowledge, of community schools allocation of b) Lack of facilities staff, equipment schools to d) Improved access budget electricity reduces Funding of etc.) government to health (not • Understaffed work hours and developments d) schools monitored) facilities thus efficiency. should be Infrastructure d) e) Availability of · Lack of medicine, Further, lack of 24 consistent and Construction of drugs in health books etc. hour treatment in accordance 64 new health facilities · Distances too opportunities may with initial facilities f) Qualified health far for clinics and cause complications, budget 60 completed workers at health schools and ultimate death Improve access e) facilities · No staff housing, c) Education to water supply Decentralisation g) Job creation rentals are quality become low especially in of drug 500 youth friendly expensive, far and which cannot help urban areas management jobs (the youth sub-standard next generation in light of high “Last mile businesses · No incentives in breach the poverty population distribution” have employed hardship jobs cycle. growth to f) Mass other youths). · No offices for Further, parents opt support healthy employment of Agriculture, a number of to withdraw children living health staff General Dealership government. Services from low-quality Improve the g) 214 youth (Mongu) · Work on youth education quality of water organisations centres has stalled d) Reduced access in rural areas have accessed b) No electricity to sanitation facilities by sinking more the youth in rural clinics resulting in high boreholes development and schools, but level of transmittable funds (Mongu) computers provided diseases c) Under RNDP the province should have had 20,000 teachers, had only 3,000 and no vacancies d) National rural water and sanitation programme

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10 Gender a) Gender a) More women Gender Gender needs mainstreaming: mainstreaming in management mainstreaming in and interests not a) Gender in in education positions in design of activities is considered when sector policy b) Improved education poor designing public b) Gender in enforcement ECE gender parity services activity design on Gender good c) Gender in based violence Grade 4 to 5 high monitoring prevention drop out of girls, d) Gender in c) Introduction factors include reporting of one stop poverty, early centres pregnancy b) Increased reporting of cases More apprehension of offenders c) See above

ITEM WHAT HAS POSITIVE IMPACT WHAT HAS NOT NEGATIVE IM- PROPOSED WORKED WELL UNINTENDED WORKED SO PACT CHANGES EFFECTS WELL UNINTENDED EFFECTS 11 National Monitor- Standards Better qual- a) Monitoring a) Planning not ing and Evaluation are set and ity of education does hardly exist. systematic and syst. & structures monitored in in government What is there is not based on evi- a) Applicability Government schools especially not relevant for dence for needs b) Implementa- schools at grade 12 planning changes/ b) Lack of infor- tion improvements mation on Health c) Data analysis b) Health posts Difficult to assess d) Data use for not placed on impact of new planning HIMS health facilities e) Validity f) Reporting g) Infrastructure 12 Sustainability of: a) Systems b) Structures c) Achievements

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WHAT WORKED WELL – KASAMA & MUNGWI beneficiaries and CSOs ACTIVITY EFFECT IMPACT HEALTH (6) Health posts Service gets closer to the people Diseases treated prevention complications People can farm and earn an income Establishment of home-based care PLWHA and chronically ill people Expands their live span With HEPS receive assistance Maternal health Presence of trained community birth More women deliver at clinics With no referral and emergency attendants services at clinics and with inadequate equipment the risk of birth implications still high HIV/AIDS Wide range of sensitisation from Easy access for wide groupings of Reduction in new cases with time churches, CSOs, district task forces, population CBOs, Radio, TV (2) Women have more access than men Yet to be seen Yet to be seen Via PMTC and ante-natal services INFRASTRUCTURE (8) Kasama –Isoka road, which has not Cheaper transportation of goods Resulted in increase in income for yet got the intended connection to Buses apply a route between Mungwi people along the road road D18. (3) and Kasama Trade has increased Communication towers were Business settles in connected areas People living around the masts have constructed (3) visibly got better business and living standards Improved community schools to be More children have access and enrol Result yet to be seen primary schools Improved power supply to higher Enabled business expansion in agro- Improved income and HH growth voltage processing New businesses opened e.g. milling plants EDUCATION (3) Upgrading of schools (2) Have increased access to learning Yet to be seen. It is expected that end- resulting in high pupil/teacher ratio performance will be low and low quality education Free primary education More children in schools and thus Resulting in reduced quality of higher pupil/teacher ratio education

SOIAL PROTECTION (8) Incapacitated HHs helped through Basic needs covered - community development Social cash transfer (6) Those reached have basic needs cov- Average poverty level remains the ered (food, schooling) same. Helps relatively few with basic needs. Unconditional cash transfer likely to Coverage too low as population has generate dependency increased Bursaries for tertiary education Enables vulnerable youth to transit Yet to be seen. Likelihood of breach of and complete income-based educa- poverty cycle in these HHs. tion EMPLOYMENT/BUSINESS (7) Have bank in town (2) Short distance to banking Effect yet to be seen Women empowerment (2) Women in business had skills im- Income increased enabling HH growth proved enabling business expansion Access to Village Banking No collaterals, which makes it realis- Income increased enabling HH growth tic to get loans for business development Youth empowerment (2) Youth Development Fund and CEEC Poverty reduction among the youth loans stabilised lives and enabled IGA among others through better markets engagement Support through ICT

243 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

WHAT HAS NOT WORKED WELL – Kasama and Mungwi Beneficiaries and CSOs

The number in brackets behind the headlines indicate the number of groups that have given a score.

ACTIVITY EFFECT IMPACT HEALTH (11) Low quality health service: Manned by low qualified staff Sickness complications with 2 out of 8 clinics built (Chisah and Not enough qualified doctors high death rate Mabula) (6) When sick people cannot walk long distances for treatment Medicine often not available Unavailability of cleaning materials in Patients treated under unhygienic High risk of attracting more infections clinics conditions or diseases Access to WASH (2) Since distances to both water and Higher risk of catching hygiene re- sanitation is far in rural areas hygiene lated diseases, having fewer produc- is low tive days (if any) with risk of sliding Participation in training in hygiene not into utmost poverty and having short possible life span WASH sensitisation Relevant and well done, but nobody Rate of hygienic related diseases not uses it likely to reduce Accessibility to health service for Distance too far for disabled Health status of disables persons and disabled Capacity for specialised treatment not children of disabled person deterio- available in district rate resulting in shorter lives, higher Lack transportation for disabled, level of poverty and life-long depen- pregnant women dency Children under five of disable parents do not receive under-five service Maternal health New clinics lack specialised rooms for No privacy The mentioned challenges make delivery Lack of trained personnel women not use the facility as intended Attended to by male personnel with risk of developing birth complica- Mothers shelter too small to accom- tions (also pre and post- natal) modate women from far Diet Some mothers cannot afford to buy Risk of mother and child developing the nutritious food complications HIV/ AIDS No facilities that have a male- ap- Sensitised men do not/cannot act on Increase risk of STDs proach. Men are shy and do not use the sensitisation open-landscape services Lack of youth-friendly corner. Young Little use of existing facilities High risk of spread of HIV/AIDS be- people too shy to discuss in plenary Peer pressure because of lack of cause of lack of relevant services and with mature people knowledge Poverty makes some engage in risky business INFRASTRUCTURE (23) Roads (6): Vehicles break down so people offer- Makes business revenue be unneces- Mungwi is about 10,000 sq km and ing transportation on bad roads are sary low has no bridge and proper feeder roads few Little outcome No filling station in the district Transportation of goods difficult and/ Increases prices of transportation or expensive with less revenue for the producer Lots of time spent on roads Lesser income for farmers and trad- Complicates transportation of goods ers and fuel has to be arranged Lesser income for farmer, traders and Time spent on providing fuel is taken vehicle owners from productive time Fuel vendors comprise on quality of fuel so vehicles develop problems and delivery may delay

244 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

No power plant despite having many Most schools and clinics have no Significantly limits health services rivers (4) power resulting in under-utilisation and Only power in Mungwi HHs have no power health risks School cannot use provided computers Productivity reduces affecting income opportunities and implicitly poverty level Communication towers sparsely con- A majority of the population cannot Lower level of income and living stan- structed (3) use mobile-based information about dards in areas without connection. prices, markets etc. Business cannot grow and diversify No clean water in townships and rural Wasting time on fetching water Income opportunities lost areas Business development affected Hygiene low Health negatively affected Mortuary has not worked since it was Bodies are taken to Kasama Extra costs, which not all may be able built (2) to afford No houses constructed for civil ser- Civil servants have to stay far from Affect service delivery negatively vants (4) work place, hence spending time and money on transportation Some government offices (e.g. Police, As a result they rent expensively Less money for service delivery Assembly, Registrar and Immigration) and have no space (3) EDUCATION (10) Low quality education (7) Pupil/teacher ratio high, which not all Results dissatisfactory teachers can handle. Low transition Time for each child minimal making quality of learning be low Text books not available Education not free No library Long distances No sanitation facilities Upgraded schools lack space High pupil/teacher ratio making qual- Results yet to be seen. But danger ity of learning low of drop-outs, dissatisfactory exam results hence low transition Number of upgraded schools too few Distance is far for many Early girl marriages Drop-outs as there are no role models No access to relevant tertiary educa- Traditional, overall employable train- Results in idling and risky behaviour tion ing offered, while locally relevant professions are not offered, e.g. short training in innovative farm products, processing, mobile repair etc.

245 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

SOCIAL PROTECTION (11) Social protection of OVCs and other Insufficient They are caught in the poverty cycle low capacity children (2) Disabled have no access to relevant Basic human rights not observed Results in live-long dependency skilled training (2) and poverty instead of contribution towards HH and national growth Youths have not received the planned Many have indulged in bad activities Risk of losing a part of a generation as empowerment support productive adults Social cash transfer to people low/ Has no representation of people with Distribution may not be optimum incapacitated HHs disabilities in CWAC Human rights: Disabled families lack money for High risk if these OVCs will depend on OVCs in disabled families schools fees and other basic require- lifelong cash transfer ments Human rights: Makes use of e.g. health service and Affects life quality and ability to en- Sign language interpreters police stations be difficult gage in ordinary and productive living Human rights: Basic human rights not observed Results in live-long dependency Disable people cannot be assisted and poverty instead of contribution through ZAPD, CDF and CEEC towards HH and national growth Lack of representation at National As- Exclusion of part of population Results in live-long dependency sembly and in PDCC and DDCCs Basic human rights not observed and poverty instead of contribution towards HH and national growth Enforcement of human rights at na- People cannot afford lawyer Equal access to justice not practised tional. Provincial and district level: When protesting people are beaten up and cannot afford treatment Criminal Community Prevention Unit need payment to act EMPLOYMENT/BUSINESS (10) Government did not provide training, No access to affordable loans Business initiatives and ideas not access to loans and land The size of loans not adequate actualised -3 No response when applying for loan Time lost when waiting for gvt. Initia- Land issues not addressed tives Poverty persists No affordable commercial loans High costs of paying back reduce the Failure to pay back resulting in busi- money available for business develop- ness collapse furthering continued ment poverty Women empowerment Disabled, but capable, women not Life-long dependency included Too few benefitted Process not transparent Youth empowerment Disabled, but capable, youth not Life-long dependency included in the scheme Procedures for accessing youth funds Complicated, lengthy and not transparent Unavailable to most youth Limited availability of relevant skilled Losses incurred through trial-and- Business initiatives and ideas not training (2) error approach actualised Most skilled training is for women Insufficient diversity in business resulting in that poverty persists Limited initiatives to attract industries No employment for youth continued poverty and dependency (2)

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KEY PERSONS INVOLVED IN THE PREPARATION OF THE REPORT

Management and Editorial Team

Mr. Mushuma Mulenga Mr. Chola J. Chabala Dr. Richard Banda Mr. Nsangwa Ngwira Ms. Prudence Kaoma Dr. Sam Mwaura Mr. Michael Mulwanda Mr. Desmond Banda Ms. Linda N. Chonya Ms. Nellie Ngulube Mr. Isaac Bwalya

Consultants Dr. Birgitte Woel Dr. Yves Frausum Dr. Jolly Kamwanga Mr. Joss Swennenhuis

Desktop Publishing Mr. Anthony Nkole

Administrative Support Ms Katai Phiri Mr. Ngenda Sikopo Ms. Mercy Kapansa Ms. Ireen Simwayi Mr. Samsom Kumwenda Mr. Masautso Mbewe Mr. Alex Simai

247 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

Evaluation Reference Group Members for SNDP/R-SNDP Final Evaluation No. Name Designation Institution 1 Dr Richard Banda Director – MNDP-M&E Ministry of National Development Depart Planning 2 Ms Prudence Kaoma Assistant Director – Ministry of National Development MNDP-M&E Depart Planning 3 Ms. Viola Mtamila Chief Planner Ministry of Energy 4 Mr Bernard Mumba Chief Planner Ministry of Infrastructure and Housing 5 Mrs Ngoza Chilonga A/Director Ministry of National Development Planning 6 Mr Shilambwe Mwaanga Assistant Director Ministry of Finance 7 Mr Mijan Sladoye Country Economist International Growth Centre 8 Mr Humphrey Kaunda Principal Economist Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry 9 Mrs Elizabeth Silungwe Chief Governance Ministry of Justice Specialist 10 Mr Evans Kapekele Principal Research and Office of the Vice President - DMMU Planning Officer 11 Mr Amadeus Mukobe Chief Planner Ministry of Labour and Social Services 12 Mr Nicholas Mwale Chief Planner Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock 13 Mr Henry Matimuna Principal Planner Ministry of Community Development and Social Services 14 Mr Melvin Sikazwe Chief Planner Ministry of Water Development, Sanitation and Environmental Protection Mr Richard Musheba Planner M&E 15 Mrs Kangwa Mubanga Senior Planner Ministry of Youth Sport and Child Development 16 Mr Lancelot Mutale Principal Economist Ministry of National Development Planning 17 Ms Colleen Zamba Economic Advisor UNDP Mr Alphart Lungu Programme Assistant 18 Mrs Winza Mwauluka Chief M&E Officer Ministry of Health Mr Miyoba CM&E officer 19 Mr Jeremiah Mwamba Principal Planner Ministry of General Education 20 Mr Desmond Banda Assistant Director Ministry of National Development Planning 21 Mr John Mututwa Assistant Researcher Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)

248 DETAILED REPORT FINAL EVALUATION OF THE SIXTH (REVISED) NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

No. Name Designation Institution 22 Ms Brenda Kambaila M&E Officer UNICEF Mr Nkandu Chilombo Social Policy Specialist 23 Mr Danny Zulu Ministry of Local Head- Planning and Information Government 24 Mr Willie Kaputo Ministry of Gender Head- Planning and Information 25 Mr Mwansa Chileshe Performance Systems Public Service Management Division Officer 26 Mr Roy Mwiinga Planner Ministry of National Guidance and Religious Affairs 27 Mrs Peggy N. Zulu Senior Planner Ministry of Tourism and Arts 28 Mrs Mary Chilala Michelo Principal Economist Ministry of Agriculture 29 Mrs Kangwa Mubanga Acting Senior Planner Ministry of Youth Sport and Child Mwale Development 30 Mr Daniel Bowasi Dean- SOEST University of Lusaka (UNILUS) 31 Dr Oswald Mungule PPA National Economic Advisory Council 32 Dr Chabila Mapoma Chairperson Zambia Monitoring and Evaluation Association 33 Mr Akabondo Kabechani Monitoring and Policy Monitoring and Research Evaluation Specialist Center (PMRC) Zambia 34 Mr Fredrick Muyoma Economist World Bank 35 Mr Kampamba Shula Researcher Zambia Chambers of Commerce and Industry 36 Mr Frank Kakungu IT Manager/Ass. Central Statistical Office Director 37 Ms Sheila Mudenda Assistant Director Central Statistical Office

249 Ministry of National Development Planning Monitoring and Evaluation Department Corner of Nationalist and John Mbita Roads P.O. Box 31047 Tel: +260-211-250886 Lusaka

Project funded by the European Union