Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2008 SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES MARKET REPORT JANUARY 2010 Table of Contents Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... i Figures ........................................................................................................................................... iii Tables ............................................................................................................................................. v Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ vi List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................................... vii Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... ix Notes .............................................................................................................................................. xi 1. Installation Trends, Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power ..................................... 1 1.1 Global Installed PV Capacity................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 Cumulative Installed PV Capacity Worldwide .................................................................. 1 1.1.2 Growth in Cumulative and Annual Installed PV Capacity Worldwide ............................. 2 1.1.3 Worldwide PV Installations by Interconnection Status and Application .......................... 4 1.2 U.S. Installed PV Capacity ................................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 Cumulative U.S. Installed PV Capacity ............................................................................. 6 1.2.2 U.S. PV Installations by Interconnection Status ................................................................ 6 1.2.3 U.S. PV Installations by Application and Sector ............................................................... 7 1.2.4 U.S. States with the Largest PV Markets ........................................................................... 9 1.3 Global and U.S. Installed CSP Capacity ............................................................................. 10 1.3.1 Cumulative Installed CSP Worldwide ............................................................................. 10 1.3.2 Major non-U.S. International Markets for CSP ............................................................... 10 1.3.3 U.S. Installed CSP Capacity ............................................................................................ 11 1.4 References ........................................................................................................................... 13 2. Industry Trends, Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power ........................................ 15 2.1 PV Production Trends ......................................................................................................... 15 2.1.1 Global PV Production ...................................................................................................... 15 2.1.2 U.S. PV Production .......................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Global and U.S. PV Shipments and Revenue ..................................................................... 20 2.2.1 Global PV Shipments ....................................................................................................... 20 2.2.2 Global PV Cell/Module Revenue .................................................................................... 23 2.2.3 U.S. PV Shipments .......................................................................................................... 24 2.2.4 U.S. PV Cell/Module Revenue ........................................................................................ 26 2.2.5 U.S. PV Imports and Exports ........................................................................................... 27 2.3 CSP Manufacturer and Shipment Trends ........................................................................... 29 2.3.1 CSP Manufacturers .......................................................................................................... 29 2.3.2 CSP Shipments................................................................................................................. 29 2.4 Material and Supply Chain Issues....................................................................................... 30 2.4.1 Polysilicon Supply for PV ............................................................................................... 30 2.4.2 Rare Metals Supply and Demand for PV ......................................................................... 36 2.4.3 Glass Supply for PV ......................................................................................................... 36 2.4.4 Material and Water Constraints for CSP ......................................................................... 37 2.4.5 Land and Transmission Constraints for Utility-Scale Solar ............................................ 38 2.5 Solar Industry Employment Trends .................................................................................... 39 2.5.1 Types of Jobs in the PV and CSP Industries.................................................................... 40 2.5.2 Current and Projected Employment in the Solar Industry, Global and U.S. ................... 41 2.5.3 Labor Intensity in the PV Industry, Global and U.S. ....................................................... 43 2.5.4 Employment and Labor Intensity in the U.S. and Global CSP Industry ......................... 44 i 2.5.5 Quality Assurance and Certification for Solar PV Installation ........................................ 45 2.5.6 DOE Response to Current Barriers in Workforce Development ..................................... 45 2.6 References ........................................................................................................................... 46 3. Cost, Price, and Performance Trends ................................................................................... 50 3.1. Levelized Cost of Energy, PV and CSP............................................................................. 50 3.2. Solar Resource and Capacity Factor, PV and CSP ............................................................ 51 3.2.1. Solar Resource for PV .................................................................................................... 51 3.2.2 Solar Resource for CSP ................................................................................................... 53 3.2.3 Capacity Factor, PV and CSP .......................................................................................... 54 3.3 PV Cell, Module, and System Efficiency ........................................................................... 55 3.3.1 PV Cell Type and Efficiency ........................................................................................... 56 3.3.2 PV Module Efficiency ..................................................................................................... 57 3.3.3 PV System Efficiency and Derate Factor ........................................................................ 58 3.4 PV Module Reliability ........................................................................................................ 58 3.5 PV Module Price Trends ..................................................................................................... 59 3.6 PV Installation Cost Trends ................................................................................................ 61 3.7 PV Operations and Maintenance ........................................................................................ 69 3.7.1 PV Operations and Maintenance Not Including Inverter Replacement ........................... 69 3.7.2 PV Inverter Replacement and Warranty Trends .............................................................. 72 3.8 CSP Installation and Operations and Maintenance Cost Trends ........................................ 73 3.9 CSP Technology Characteristics and System Performance................................................ 73 3.9.1 Parabolic Trough Technology .......................................................................................... 73 3.9.2 Power Tower Technology ................................................................................................ 74 3.9.3 Dish-Engine Technology ................................................................................................. 74 3.9.4 Linear Fresnel Reflector Technology .............................................................................. 74 3.9.5 Storage ............................................................................................................................. 74 3.9.6 Heat-Transfer Fluid .......................................................................................................... 74 3.9.7 Water Use ......................................................................................................................... 75 3.9.8 Land Requirements .......................................................................................................... 75 3.10 References ........................................................................................................................