6868 > > İnceleme The purpose of meeting Iran’s energy demand by building several dams on Karun River may have an harmful effect on the agricultural sector of Iraq. > David LEUPOLD İnceleme ORSAM Middle East Research Assistant OMINOUS TOKENS IN STRAINED IRAN-IRAQ RELATIONS: ARE CONFLICTING INTERESTS ON WATER SUPPLY HERALDİNG A NEW CRİSİS? Abstract When Mashallah Hosseini, the former Head of the Commission for Agriculture convened by the Islamic Consultative Assembly, addressed water issues in Iran he appealed to Iranian officials as follows: “12 billion cubic meter fresh water, which enter Turkey and Iraq from Iran, plus adjacent water resources amounting up to 20 billion cubic meter, which flow into the Persian gulf from the streams in the south like Karkha, Karun and Cherahi, remain entirely unused”.1 Hereby one is mistaken to assume that this issue was newly brought on the agenda – in fact water supply as a determinant factor in Iran’s policy towards her neighboring countries had been already playing a crucial role prior to the Iraq War in 2003. Ortadoğu Analiz January’11 Vol 3 - No 25 > 69 İnceleme As the rivers like the Karun River in the west of Iran are mostly of trans- boundary nature, so does the water issue emerge as a challenge with massive impact not only on a domestic but also on a trans-national level across its borders. Introduction struggle on fossil fuels, in particular crude oil, or sectarian-ethnic clashes until now we may wit- In face of serious bottlenecks both In Iran and ness a fundamental change of the overall condi- Iraq, coinciding with an axis shift in Iraq’s do- tions as the parameter water may influence the mestic policy on behalf of Shi’i groups, serious dynamics of the considered countries, first on a concerns have been raised recently on regard to domestic scale, yet later on with an international the question whether this silent crisis is likely to impact. In face of this potential threat, the prep- reach the verge of escalation in the next future. aration and implementation of farsighted, well- balanced water policies under consideration of For this reason, in the first part of my article I latest scientific results and technological devel- will determine and briefly discuss various do- opments are of utter importance to avert the fate mestic factors which already have or will emerge of the “ever war-ridden” Middle East. as challenges for Iran’s water policy. In the sec- ond part, I will focus on the significance of a In view of currently conflicting interests on wa- well-balanced water policy of all actors in the ter supply, illustrated by the example of Iran and Middle East with hindsight on the Shatt al-Arab Iraq in this article, I will try to emphasize the issue, delineating the historical events which need for increased collaboration and better co- ultimately led to the Iran-Iraq war in geostrate- ordination in this field to benefit from synergy ef- gic terms. In conclusion, I will critically reflect fects instead of reckless competition which may about the impact of Iran’s water policy on her deal serious damage to both sides, involved in neighboring country Iraq in an attempt to strike the struggle for covering its own steadily rising, a link between the recent tension in the Iran- domestic water demand. The Shatt-al Arab cri- Iraq relations and the national interests of both sis, which contributed significantly to the dete- countries on this particular issue. rioration in the Iran-Iraq relations and entailed a resource-engulfing and relentless Iran-Iraq war An Outline of the Middle East water issue and throughout the 80s, may serve as a warning ex- the Detrimental Impact of Domestic Upheav- ample as it sheds light on the destructiveness of als policies based on the idea of preserving national interests irreconcilably regardless of the national When we look back into history we see that interests of neighboring countries. scarcity of water resources has always been a crucial problem in the Middle East. However, in In fact both Iran and Iraq are countries inter- face of a rapidly growing population throughout nally weakened due to domestic issues which the region, this issue is likely to emerge as one of became obvious most recently in the aftermath the greatest threats to regional security and may of general elections. In the case of Iraq we face a considerably hamper the peace process. country which is going through a critical period of re-orientation and upheavals after the disin- In a region which has been dominated by a tegration of the Baath regime in 2003. As a mat- Ortadoğu Analiz January’11 Vol 3 - No 25 70 > İnceleme Mutual awareness for water demand, has to be increased on both sides to pave the way for a sustainable and fruitful cooperation for the benefit of both Iran and Iraq. ter of fact, neither former Prime Minister Ayad hdi Karroubi’s Hezb-e Etemad-e Melli3 (National Allawi’s (Arab) nationally oriented al-Haraka Trust Party) and Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s Rah-e al-Wataniya al-Iraqiyya (Iraqi National Move- Sabz-e Omid4 (The Green Way of Hope), both ment) nor current Prime Minister Nouri Al-Ma- candidates in the election who asserted that the liki’s Shi’i-oriented Itilaf Dawlat al-Qanun (Rule result of the election was forged in favor of Ah- of Law Coalition) is likely to reconcile incongru- madinejad’s Etelaf-e Abadgaran-e Iran-e Eslami ous political interests for the sake of a common (Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran). cause and to assert itself as the spearhead of Iraq’s estranged political groups, which are until Water Supply in Iran: a Vital Interest and Ma- now fragmented along a sectarian-ethnic axis. 2 jor Challenge However, in Iran controversial election results According to the study paper Buhran-e Waziyet- entailed months of violent clashes between gov- e Ab dar Chihan wa Iran (Water Crisis in Iran ernmental security forces and supporters of Me- and the World, 2009) worked out by Dr. Sadighe Ortadoğu Analiz January’11 Vol 3 - No 25 > 71 İnceleme In view of the impeding danger of Iran adopting a reckless and irrecon- cilable policy towards its neighboring country Iraq, there is reason to believe that the water issue will emerge as the most detrimental force in the bilateral relations of the two countries. Babran, scholar at Azad-e Eslami University, Te- For that reason the value of drinkable water in heran, and director of a research group for sus- Middle East cannot be overestimated and in face tainable growth and environmental protection, of the fact that a shortage in water supply will Iran will face a severe water crisis in the years to emerge as the most grievous problem in Iran’s come. He points out that the rapid, high growth domestic politics, the importance of water is in population is the main reason for Iran’s in- likely to eclipse even the supply of such crucial creased demand for fresh water. According to resources like crude oil and electricity. Hereby demographical calculations, Iran will emerge as especially the vast demand of the agricultural one of ten countries with the highest population sector creates major problems. According to by 2050 – a circumstance which is further wors- Abdul Ghafar Shojaa, a scholar who working in ened by the increasingly diverging gap between the field of agricultural engineering and natural fresh water (demanded by households) and re- resources, stated that 94% of water available is cyclable water resources available (sarane-ye ab consumed by the agricultural sector and only a tajdeedpazeer). 5 Furthermore recent scientific remaining share of 6 % is consumed by private research indicates that deforestation and, in this households and the industrial sector. 7 context, the vast extinction of flora and fauna which is needed in the natural water purifica- As the rivers like the Karun River in the west tion process accord mainly for the increasing of Iran are mostly of trans-boundary nature, lack of drinkable water. As a matter of fact 60 so does the water issue emerge as a challenge % of Iranian territory is located in an arid zone, with massive impact not only on a domestic but a weather zone characterized by high tempera- also on a trans-national level across its borders. tures and less rainfall. According to an article In view of the impeding danger of Iran adopt- published by the RFI the Iranian provinces of ing a reckless and irreconcilable policy towards Sistan, Baluchestan and partially Khorasan are its neighboring country Iraq, there is reason to most strongly affected by the water shortage.6 In believe that the water issue will emerge - apart order to meet the high water demand Iran initi- from the Fakka oil field issue8 – as the most det- ated projects to exploit water reservoirs below rimental force in the bilateral relations of the the surface, yet the use of such state-of-the-art two countries which might eventually cause a techniques are unlikely to be affordable on a profound rupture reminiscent of the rivalry trig- large scale. Besides that an increasingly falling gering the Iran-Iraq war in 1980. water level further compounds the exploitation of sub-terrestrial rivers. As a matter of fact most The Geopolitical Aspect of the Iraq-Iran War: of the rivers which ran around 40 meter below Shatt-al Arab the surface in the past, now run 250-300 meter below the surface – which creates both a scien- As a matter of fact, the power struggle which tific and an economic challenge.