RISK OF PROCESSES AND THEIR MANAGEMENT Dana Procházková and Authors´ Team Praha 2017 1 Reviewers: Prof., Dr., Dipl. Ing. František Holešovský Assoc. Prof., Dipl. Ing. Václav Jirovský, PhD. Assoc. Prof., RNDr. Miroslav Rusko, PhD. Dipl. Ing. Karel Dach, PhD. © ČVUT v Praze, Fakulta dopravní Ústav bezpečnostních technologií a inženýrství Assoc. Prof.,RNDr. Dana Procházková, PhD., D.Sc. ISBN 978-80-01-06186-2 2 CONTENT Preface 5 Chapter 1 6 Outline on Risk, Risk Management and Trade-off with Risks (Dana Procházková) Chapter 2 27 Risks of Drinking Water Failures (Jan Procházka, Linda Vašatová) Chapter 3 43 Risk Management Directed to Safety of Metro Control Systems (Tomáš Kertis, Dana Procházková) Chapter 4 63 Evaluation of Risks in Transportation of Items (Helena Bínová, Daniela Heralová) Chapter 5 80 Economical and Technical Evaluation of Machinery Enterprise and System Risks Connected (Petr Kocour, Karel Sellner) Chapter 6 93 Risk Assessment of Project of Implementation of Video Tolling for the Fee Collection System within the Roads Network of the Czech Republic as Part of Regulatory Impact Assessment (Olga Mertlová, Milan Dont) Chapter 7 110 Employees Fluctuation Risks and how to Measure Them (Libor Měsíček) Chapter 8 120 Assessment of Economic Security in Enterprises (Stanislava Strelcova, Veronika Bobanova, Denisa Janasova) Chapter 9 133 Marketing Communication Related to Carrier – Customer Relationship in Emergency Situations (Alexandra Dvořáčková) Chapter 10 152 Risk Connected with Communication in Critical Situation (Iveta Sedláková) 3 Chapter 11 166 Business Processes and Their Mapping as Base for Business Continuity Management and Map of Risks (Martin Svítil, Ivo Svoboda) Chapter 12 175 A Mental Decision Risk Model: Theory and Evaluation (Petr Dlask, Václav Beran, Ivana Faltová Leitmanová) Chapter 13 200 The Reliability Evaluation of Assembly Lines Using Models (Miloslav Linda, Gunnar Kűnzel, Monika Hromasová, Jiří Prokopec) Chapter 14 217 Size of Hazard Depends on Data Files Extent (Dana Procházková, Jan Procházka) Chapter 15 231 Assessment of Capabilities of Conventional Tools for Analysing and Assessing of Risk in Context with Dynamic Risks (Barbora Schüllerová, Vladimír Adamec, Petr Skřehot, Michaela Melicharová, Aleš Vémola) Chapter 16 248 Super Processes for Management of Risks in Territory and in Technological Entities Directed to Human Security and Development (Dana Procházková) Chapter 17 282 Conclusion with Proposals for Improvement of Work with Risks Connected with Processes (Dana Procházková) 4 PREFACE Publication „Risks of Processes and Their Management “is released on the basis of information and recommendations from two international conferences (Risks of business processes 2015 and 2016), which held in Děčín on the Czech Technical University ground and were organised in co-operation with the Jan Evangelista Purkyně University located in Ústí nad Labem. Papers presented on both conferences showed the new findings connected with: identification and analysis of risks in territory and in businesses; management of important risks; and trade-off with risks under conditions of security systems with accent to solution of safety of businesses, infrastructures and territory. By this way, it was collected the sum of new theoretical, technical, organisational and methodical findings for support of effective, practical and powerful systems for pulling off the risks at conditions normal, abnormal and critical. This was supplemented by information on crisis management and on experiences from putting off the critical situations (operation crisis plans for response to emergency and crisis situations, problems of adequacy of maintenance, qualified response to businesses´ accidents, natural disasters etc.) that showed the change of targets and management structure at critical situations. Evaluations of mentioned papers and their conclusions showed that the powerful public protection is intimately connected with safety of entities technological and social, and in particular with critical infrastructure safety that ensures pursuing the basic State functions, namely at crisis conditions. Therefore, on their ground it originates the project with the goal to summarize the relevant results, to underline new knowledge and to show the road forward. The project result is the present book that contains seventeen chapters split to fifth parts. Great thanks belongs to authors of chapters for effort to apply integrated view on risks in different sectors of human activities and their partial domains, which enables to compare approaches, methodologies and key techniques and procedures that are connected with work with risks. From human security and development reasons it does not go on different make-believes with risks based on theories, but on effective procedures targeted to risks´ control so they might not cause serious damages to humans and decline of human civilisation. Great thank belongs to reviewers ……., who help me to improve the present book. Specific acknowledgement and thank I express to Dipl. Ing. Lucie Povolná from the Jan Evangelista Purkyně University in Ústí nad Labem for help with groundworks collection and to Mgr. David Borovička from the Czech Technical University in Prague for technical works connected with the publication issue. I am indebted to the Czech Technical University in Prague, and especially to the Associate Professor, Dipl. Ing. Václav Jirovský PhD., the head of department of security technologies and engineering for chance of present book processing. Praha, March 25, 2017 Dana Procházková 5 Chapter 1 OUTLINE ON RISK, RISK MANAGEMENT AND TRADE-OFF WITH RISKS* 1. Introduction For ensuring the human security and development, the safe human system is necessary [1-3]; the human system has different levels – village, city, organization, business, region, State etc. For ensuring the humans´ lives in a safe space there is necessary to manage and trade-off with risks properly on all mentioned levels, i.e. to apply the measures and activities targeted to the existence, security and development of human system. The basic tools of human society for achievement of these objectives are the human society governance and the correct application of knowledge and experiences connected with trade-off with risks respecting the public interests. In this respect the great role plays the management and engineering disciplines, the aim of which is to arrange the human security and sustainable development. The present cognition [3, 4] shows that humans need to take care on public assets: human lives, health and security; property and welfare; environment; critical technologies and infrastructures, Figure 1. The tool that is aimed to mentioned targets is an integral (complex) safety. To reach just mentioned targets, the problems on several levels: technical, functional (organisational, operative), tactical, strategic and political (Figure 2) have been solved by a way that solutions on all levels have been interconnected. Fig. 1. Human system public assets. *Author: Assoc. Prof., RNDr. Dana Procházková, PhD., D.Sc. Czech Technical University in Prague, Praha, Czech Republic, [email protected] 6 Fig. 2. Levels on which security problems should be addressed. State of art of problems´ solution, according to knowledge, summarized in works [4- 6], is the following: - each object under consideration is a system, i.e. it is characterized by elements, linkages and flows, - the system vulnerabilities are also caused by linkages and mainly by flows of energy, information, material, finances etc. among the system elements that cause couplings; mentioned couplings create often interdependences that are often the causes of failures and often by a cascade failure of several partial systems at occurrence of extreme (beyond design, severe) disasters, Figure 3. The nature of interdependences is physical, cyber, organizational and territorial [5]. Fig. 3. Impacts in the human system at extreme disaster; anthropogenic measures and activities ensure the protection of public assets only for disasters with size smaller than design disaster; only at defined nuclear facilities there are carried out measures and activities against selected beyond design disasters. 7 The recent cognition [3-6] shows that the present world and its objects are represented by a model denoted as a system of systems i.e. several overlapping systems that are open and fulfil certain functions. They are interconnected by linkages and flows which create mutual interdependences that under some conditions cause specific vulnerabilities. A system according to its core means more than only a sum of parts, and therefore, the stress is put on: a study of interactions and associations; non-linear thinking; interactions; inductions; feedbacks; and experiments or realistic simulations. E.g. feedbacks cause the non-linearity in the system behaviour and cause that the behaviour is not predictable, and therefore, it is not possible to use the common prognostic methods for the identification of possible system states. The consequence is an occasional occurrence of unexpected situations that threaten the humans, and it is difficult to get over them. The complexity of systems with which we work in practice is different. According to work [6] four types of system configurations are used; they are: simply organized units; composite systems; complex systems; and set of overlapping systems. Behaviour of simply organized units is clearly given by structure and properties of units and it