Comparative Innovation Policy Analysis -Electric Vehicle Development in Japan and Germany - Waseda University, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies PhD Program in International Studies Chief Advisor: Prof. Kobayashi Hideo 4011S005-4 Martin Schroeder Table of Contents Introduction 1 Chapter 1: Theoretical framework.........................................................................................4 1.1 On innovation..................................................................................................................4 1.2 Innovation system typology.............................................................................................5 1.2.1 Do National Innovation Systems matter to automakers?..........................................13 1.3 Innovation, innovation systems and the Policy Cycle model...........................................17 1.4 The Policy Cycle model.................................................................................................21 1.4.1 Agenda-setting .......................................................................................................21 1.4.2 Policy formulation..................................................................................................22 1.4.3 Decision-making ....................................................................................................24 1.4.4 Policy implementation............................................................................................26 1.4.5 Policy evaluation....................................................................................................27 1.4.6 Policy regimes........................................................................................................29 Chapter 2: The Japanese National Innovation System........................................................31 2.1 Political framework conditions ......................................................................................31 2.2 Long-range planning .....................................................................................................40 2.3 Governmental R&D funding strategy.............................................................................42 2.4 Administrative guidance................................................................................................46 2.5 Administratve reform ....................................................................................................49 2.6 Environmental policy ....................................................................................................57 Chapter 3: The German National Innovation System .........................................................66 3.1 Political framework conditions ......................................................................................66 3.1.1 Federalism..............................................................................................................66 3.1.2 Party system...........................................................................................................69 3.1.3 Research landscape..........................................................................................................74 3.2 Role of regional policy ..................................................................................................77 3.3 Technology assessment .................................................................................................80 3.4 Governmental R&D funding strategy.............................................................................81 3.5 Environmental policy ....................................................................................................86 Excursus: vehicle weight.................................................................................................92 3.5.1 Fuel policy .............................................................................................................96 3.5.2 Vehcile tax relief ....................................................................................................97 3.5.3 Energy policy .........................................................................................................98 Chapter 4: Electric vehicle development............................................................................102 4.1 Regulative framework conditions on electric vehicle development in Japan .................102 4.2 Foresight on battery-powered and hybrid vehicle technology in Japan..........................103 4.3 Governmental support for battery-powered and hybrid vehicle technology in Japan.....103 4.3.1 Initial support (1971-1989)...................................................................................103 4.3.2 Renewed emphasis (1990-1996) ...........................................................................106 4.3.3 Policy transfer and learning: influence of US environmental regulation.................109 3.3.3.1 The ‘Muskie Law’ ..............................................................................................109 3.3.3.2 The impact of the Californian Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate..........................111 4.3.4 Enter the hybrid (1997 onwards)...........................................................................116 4.4 Governmental support for battery-powered and hybrid vehicle technology in Germany124 4.4.1 Initial support (1971-1989)...................................................................................124 4.4.2 Technology testing (1990-1996) ...........................................................................125 4.4.3 Attempted catch-up (2004 onwards) .....................................................................128 4.5 Fuel cell electric vehicles.............................................................................................151 4.5.1 Short history of fuel cell electric vehicles..............................................................151 4.5.2 Regarding fuel cells..............................................................................................151 4.5.3 Foresight on fuel cell technology in Japan.............................................................152 4.5.4 Promotion of fuel cell technology in Japan............................................................154 4.5.5 Fuel cell electric vehicle promotion in Japan.........................................................155 4.5.6 Promotion of fuel cell technology in Germany ......................................................165 4.5.7 Fuel cell electric vehicle promotion in Germany ...................................................168 4.6 Automakers’ electric vehicle development strategies ...................................................171 4.6.1 Toyota..................................................................................................................172 4.6.2 Honda...................................................................................................................175 4.6.3 Nissan ..................................................................................................................177 4.6.4 Daihatsu...............................................................................................................181 4.6.5 Mitsubishi ............................................................................................................182 4.6.6 Mazda ..................................................................................................................184 4.6.7 Suzuki..................................................................................................................186 4.6.8 Subaru..................................................................................................................187 4.6.9 Daimler ................................................................................................................187 4.6.10 BMW .................................................................................................................191 4.6.11 Opel ...................................................................................................................194 4.6.12 Volkswagen........................................................................................................196 4.6.13 Development strategy patterns analysis...............................................................199 Chapter 5: Electric vehicle innovation policy regimes.......................................................206 5.1 Japanese electric vehicle innovation policy regime ......................................................208 5.2 German electric vehicle innovation policy regime........................................................219 Conclusion........................................................................................................................224 Bibliography .....................................................................................................................229 Appendix .........................................................................................................................270 List of tables and figures Tables: Tab. 1 Top-selling models.........................................................................................................2 Tab. 2 Sancioned amakudari cases..........................................................................................38 Tab. 3 German and Japanese public R&D institutions .............................................................75