Neville Barrett, Amanda Bates, Maria Beger, Rick Stuart-Smith, Craig Syms, Neil Holbrook, Nathan Knott, David Booth, Brendan Kelaher, Stefan Howe, Colin Buxton and Graham Edgar FRDC Project 2010/506 The Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), established in 2010, comprises the University of Tasmania’s internationally recognised expertise across the full spectrum of temperate marine, Southern Ocean, and Antarctic research and education. September 2014 IMaS – Sandy Bay Building 49 (between the law Building & the University gym) Cnr alexander street & grosvenor street sandy Bay tasmania australia telephone: +61 3 6226 2937 Postal address: Private Bag 129, Hobart tas 7001 IMaS – taroona nubeena Crescent taroona tasmania australia telephone: +61 3 6227 7277 Postal address: Private Bag 49, Hobart tas 7001 www.imas.utas.edu.au translatingnatureintoknowledge Adaptive management of temperate reefs to minimise effects of climate change: Developing new effective approaches for ecological monitoring and predictive modelling Neville Barrett, Amanda Bates, Maria Beger, Rick Stuart-Smith, Craig Syms, Neil Holbrook, Nathan Knott, David Booth, Brendan Kelaher, Stefan Howe, Colin Buxton, and Graham Edgar. September 2014 FRDC Project No 2010/506 © 2014 Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. All rights reserved. ISBN 978-1-86295-770-1 Adaptive management of temperate reefs to minimise effects of climate change: Developing new effective approaches for ecological monitoring and predictive modelling] Project No. 2010/506 2014 Ownership of Intellectual property rights Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and the University of Tasmania. This publication (and any information sourced from it) should be attributed to Barrett, N., Bates, A., Beger, M., Syms, C., Holbrook, N., Knott, N., Booth, D., Kelaher, B., Howe, S., Buxton, C. and Edgar, G. University of Tasmania, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, 2014, Adaptive management of temperate reefs to minimise effects of climate change: Developing new effective approaches for ecological monitoring and predictive modelling, Hobart, May. Creative Commons licence All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. A summary of the licence terms is available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en. The full licence terms are available from creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode. Inquiries regarding the licence and any use of this document should be sent to: [email protected]. Disclaimer The authors do not warrant that the information in this document is free from errors or omissions. The authors do not accept any form of liability, be it contractual, tortious, or otherwise, for the contents of this document or for any consequences arising from its use or any reliance placed upon it. The information, opinions and advice contained in this document may not relate, or be relevant, to a readers particular circumstances. Opinions expressed by the authors are the individual opinions expressed by those persons and are not necessarily those of the publisher, research provider or the FRDC. The Fisheries Research and Development Corporation plans, invests in and manages fisheries research and development throughout Australia. It is a statutory authority within the portfolio of the Federal Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, jointly funded by the Australian Government and the fishing industry. Researcher Contact Details FRDC Contact Details Name: Neville Barrett Address: 25 Geils Court Address: IMAS, Uni of Tas, Locked Bag 49, Hobart 7001 Deakin ACT 2600 Phone: 02 6285 0400 Phone: 03 62277210 Fax: 02 6285 0499 Fax: 0362278035 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Web: www.frdc.com.au In submitting this report, the researcher has agreed to FRDC publishing this material in its edited form. 1 Contents Contents .................................................................................................................................................. 2 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................. 5 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 6 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 10 Objectives ............................................................................................................................................. 12 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................. 13 Methods ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Methods for Objective 1 ..................................................................................................................14 Methods for Objective 2 ..................................................................................................................17 Methods for Objective 3 ..................................................................................................................17 Methods for Objective 4 ..................................................................................................................19 Extension .........................................................................................................................................20 Results .................................................................................................................................................. 21 Objective 1 .......................................................................................................................................21 Objective 2: ......................................................................................................................................31 Objective 3: ......................................................................................................................................39 Objective 4 .......................................................................................................................................50 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................. 94 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 100 Implications ....................................................................................................................................... 101 Recommendations ............................................................................................................................. 103 Extension and Adoption .................................................................................................................... 105 Project coverage ................................................................................................................................ 108 References .......................................................................................................................................... 109 Project materials developed ............................................................................................................. 114 Appendices• ........................................................................................................................................ 115 Appendix i. Ecological traits and climate velocity explain range shifts in an ocean warming hotspot ............................................................................................................................................115 Appendix ii. Resilience and signatures of tropicalization in protected reef fish communities .....116 Appendix iii Statistical solutions for error and bias in global citizen science datasets .................152 2 Appendix iv. Distinguishing geographic range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort. ..............................................................................................................................182 Appendix v. Report from initial project workshop. August 2011. ................................................200 Tables Table 1. Predicted current per site abundance of fish species from LTTRMP and RLS data Table 2 Predicted current per site abundance of mobile invertebrate species from LTTRMP and RLS data Table 3. Summary of the central issues currently arising in SE Australia in response to a warming climate, potential management responses, and the information/monitoring requirements necessary to support these Figures Figure 1. Sites surveyed by the LTTRMP and RLS surveys between 1992 and 2013. Does not include additional sites surveyed by the Victorian MPA monitoring program (identical