Afghanistan Water Resources Development (AWARD) Technical Assistance Project - Technical and Implementation Support Consultancy (TISC) Grant No. TF093637-AF/ Contract No. MEW/957/QBS INVESTMENT PLAN FOR KABUL RIVER BASIN January 2013 AWARD - TISC Grant No. TF093637-AF/ Contract No. MEW/957/QBS AFGHANISTAN KABUL BASIN INVESTMENT PLAN Report submitted by LANDELL MILLS LTD This report was prepared at the request of the Ministry of Energy and Water. The views expressed are those of the Consultants and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Afghanistan or the World Bank. KEY DATA Name of Project: AWARD - TISC (Grant No. TF093637-AF/ Contract No. MEW/957/QBS) Contractor: Landell Mills Limited, Bryer-Ash Business Park, Bradford Road, Trowbridge, Wiltshire, BA14 8HE, UK Tel: +44 1225 763777 Fax: +44 1225 753678 www.landell-mills.com in association with Mott MacDonald (www.mottmac.com) Contracting Authority: Ministry of Energy and Water, Islamic Government of Afghanistan Beneficiary: Ministry of Energy and Water Primary Location: Kabul Secondary Locations: Nationwide DISTRIBUTION LIST Recipient Copies Format Eng. Farhad, Director of Water Projects 10 English – electronic and hard copies QUALITY ASSURANCE STATEMENT Version Status Date Kabul Basin Investment Plan Version 3 6.02.13 Name Position Date Prepared by: Georg Petersen River Basin Planner 30.01.13 Devaraj de Condappa River Basin Modeller (WEAP) Laura Forni WEAP/LEA Specialist Checked by: Jelle Beekma Senior Consultant, Landell Mills Limited 31.01.13 Simon Foxwell Backstopping Director, Landell Mills Limited 31.01.13 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We would like to thank the General Director of Planning, Mme. Zia Gul, Director of Water Projects, Eng. Farhad, and other staff of the MEW Department of Planning, as well as His Excellency the Deputy Minister Eng. Ziaie, for their cooperation and support to the team. Page i AWARD - TISC / LML / Kabul Basin Investment Plan / January 2013 CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................... III 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Context ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.3. Results ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.4. Conclusions and Recommendations.......................................................................... 8 2. BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT ....................................................................................... 13 2.1. Motivation of this Analysis ....................................................................................... 13 2.2. Main Characteristics of the River Basin ................................................................... 17 2.3. Critical Issues .......................................................................................................... 26 2.4. Future Targets ......................................................................................................... 30 2.5. Development Options .............................................................................................. 31 3. WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND DEMAND FOR YEAR 2030 ........................ 33 3.1. Water Resources Availability for Year 2030 ............................................................. 33 3.2. Demands for Year 2030 ........................................................................................... 36 4. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................................. 43 4.1. Modelling Framework .............................................................................................. 43 4.2. Hydrological Scenarios Modelling ............................................................................ 47 4.3. Reference Case....................................................................................................... 47 4.4. Future Scenarios ..................................................................................................... 49 4.5. Result Database ...................................................................................................... 63 4.6. Approach and Assessment Criteria for Investment .................................................. 63 4.7. Performance Assessment ........................................................................................ 68 4.8. Robustness Aspects ................................................................................................ 69 4.9. Assumptions ............................................................................................................ 70 4.10. Investment Tranches ............................................................................................... 71 4.11. Development Sequence .......................................................................................... 71 4.12. Limitations and Uncertainties ................................................................................... 72 4.13. Partnership and Stakeholder Involvement ............................................................... 73 5. SCENARIO ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ........................................................................... 76 5.1. Reference Case....................................................................................................... 76 5.2. Overview of the Scenarios ....................................................................................... 77 5.3. Priority for Coverage of Domestic Water Demand ................................................... 80 5.4. Analysis of Investment Tranches ............................................................................. 80 5.5. Asset Performance (Individual) .............................................................................. 144 5.6. Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................ 149 5.7. Development Schedule.......................................................................................... 151 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 175 6.1. Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 175 6.2. Recommendations ................................................................................................. 178 APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 181 APPENDIX 2: STAKEHOLDERS AND CONTACTS .................................................................. 184 APPENDIX 3: EXISTING HYDRAULIC ASSET DETAILS .......................................................... 187 APPENDIX 4: PROPOSED HYDRAULIC ASSET DETAILS ...................................................... 188 APPENDIX 5: FINANCIAL PARAMETERS USED IN WEAP ..................................................... 191 Page ii AWARD - TISC / LML / Kabul Basin Investment Plan / January 2013 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AEIC Afghan Energy Information Center AIMS Afghanistan Information Management Service ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ARTF Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund AUWSSC Afghanistan Urban Water Supply and Sewerage Corporation AWARD Afghanistan Water Resources Development (Project) BGR Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Germany CASA 1000 Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project CE Civil Engineer CIA Central Intelligence Agency CPHD Center for Policy and Human Development CSO Central Statistics Organization CTAP Civilian Technical Assistance Programme DSS Decision Support System EIRP Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation Programme ESHA European Small Hydropower Association FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GAMS General Algebraic Modelling System GCMs Global Climate Models GD-P General Directorate of Planning GIS Geographic Information System GWSP Global Water System Project IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KDSS Kabul River Decision Support System KM Kabul Municipality LEA Large Ensemble Approach LML Landell Mills Limited MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock MECO Montreal Engineering Co. MEW Ministry of Energy and Water MoEC Ministry of Economy MoF Ministry of Finance MoFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoIC Ministry of Industries and Commerce MOM Management, Operation and Maintenance MoPH Ministry of Public Health MoRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development MoUD Ministry of Urban Development NB Net Benefit NEPA National Environment Protection Agency NGO Non-Governmental Organization Page iii AWARD - TISC / LML / Kabul Basin Investment Plan / January 2013 NPP National Priority Program O&M Operation and Maintenance RB River Basin RBA River Basin Agency RBP River Basin Planning RCMs Regional Climate Models RCUWM Regional Centre on Urban Water Management RFP Request for Proposal SBA Sub Basin Agency