University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies The Vault: Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2015-04-29 Trading Secrets: Canada's Comparative Advantage in Signals Intelligence Sharing, 1947 to Present Robson, Maria Ann Robson, M. A. (2015). Trading Secrets: Canada's Comparative Advantage in Signals Intelligence Sharing, 1947 to Present (Unpublished master's thesis). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. doi:10.11575/PRISM/28500 http://hdl.handle.net/11023/2186 master thesis University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Trading Secrets: Canada’s Comparative Advantage in Signals Intelligence Sharing, 1947 to Present by Maria Robson A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF MILITARY AND STRATEGIC STUDIES GRADUATE PROGRAM IN MILITARY AND STRATEGIC STUDIES CALGARY, ALBERTA APRIL, 2015 © Maria Robson 2015 Abstract Canada is a member of the world’s strongest intelligence-sharing relationship, the Five Eyes. Why has Canada been a valued partner for the United States and the United Kingdom, states with greater absolute intelligence capabilities? Canada’s intelligence capabilities are understudied; existing scholarship has suffered from a lack of access to material. The declassification of archival materials surrounding the establishment of Five Eyes allow this thesis to make a new contribution to the literature, illuminating Canada’s unique value to its strategic partners. This thesis demonstrates that Canada has a comparative advantage in signals intelligence (SIGINT). While directly benefiting national security, Canadian SIGINT was built and leveraged to ensure value to its most powerful intelligence-sharing partners. Canada has acted on gains from trade, identifying comparative advantages in geography and analytical capabilities and leveraging them to ensure access to intelligence, military support, and political relationships to further its national security. ii Acknowledgments This thesis would not have been possible without many individuals who supported my often seemingly unwise decision to complete a thesis while working full-time. At the university: First and foremost, thank you to Dr. John Ferris, to whom I am greatly indebted for his tireless supervision and sage advice. At the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, many friends contributed to the wonderful learning experience. Tim and Shaiel were there from day one and bouncing ideas off each other was invaluable. Dr. Arne Kislenko and Dr. Denis Smyth also deserve heartfelt thanks for piquing my interest in intelligence studies. Conducting research: Thank you to Ray Boisvert for his insights, the National Cryptologic Museum’s curator, Rene Stein, and to many unnamed individuals who guided me in understanding the realm of intelligence. At the office: This would not have been possible without the support and guidance of my boss, Paul Nelson, whom I cannot thank enough. On the writing front, thank you to David Campagna, PhD, for taking the time to help structure my ideas. I am grateful to many other Nexen colleagues who made it a pleasure to balance work and research. Family and friends: Thank you to many supportive friends, family, and particularly my parents, Bill and Helen Robson, for their love and patience, supporting me and talking through my ideas to make them far better than I could on my own. iii Table of Contents Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1 Canada as a Producer of Intelligence .......................................................................................................... 7 Canada as a Consumer of Intelligence ...................................................................................................... 11 Canada’s International Trade in Intelligence ............................................................................................ 12 Chapter 1: Theoretical Foundations ..................................................................................................... 16 1.1 Definitions .......................................................................................................................................... 16 1.2 Intelligence Theory ............................................................................................................................. 18 1.2.1 Linking International Cooperation and Intelligence Sharing ....................................................... 24 1.2.2 Selecting targets: Intelligence collection on friendly states ......................................................... 27 1.2.3 Integrating Theories of Intelligence Sharing ................................................................................ 31 1.3 Contribution to the Literature.............................................................................................................. 34 Chapter 2: Origins of Canadian SIGINT and Intelligence Sharing .................................................... 37 2.1 Autonomous Canadian SIGINT: Historical Origins ............................................................................ 38 2.1.1 Canadian Postwar Intelligence Planning ...................................................................................... 44 2.1.2 Canadian Postwar Foreign Policy ................................................................................................ 52 2.1.3 SIGINT in the Context of Canadian Postwar Priorities ............................................................... 55 2.2 Intelligence-sharing: Canada’s relationships ....................................................................................... 57 2.2.1 The Alliance: UKUSA, or Five Eyes ........................................................................................... 57 2.2.2 Intelligence Sharing in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ................................................... 61 2.3 Intelligence Sharing: Middle Powers .................................................................................................. 62 2.4 Conclusions......................................................................................................................................... 65 Chapter 3: Canadian SIGINT: Value, Relevance, and Applications .................................................. 68 3.1 Value to Strategic Partners .................................................................................................................. 69 3.1.1 Factors Enabling Canada to Add Value ....................................................................................... 69 3.1.2 Historical Contributions ............................................................................................................... 70 3.1.3 Present-Day Contributions ........................................................................................................... 77 3.1.4 Conclusions: Value of Canadian SIGINT to Intelligence-Sharing Partners ................................. 82 3.2 Value to Canada .................................................................................................................................. 83 3.3 SIGINT and Five Eyes Today ............................................................................................................. 87 3.3.1 Present-Day Five Eyes: Challenges and Resilience ..................................................................... 89 3.3.2 Value of SIGINT in diplomatic negotiations ............................................................................... 96 3.4 Conclusions......................................................................................................................................... 97 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 99 Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 105 iv Introduction Canada is part of the world’s most powerful and long-lasting multilateral intelligence- sharing relationship: the Five Eyes.1 The five-state alliance, comprising the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, was founded around the sharing of signals intelligence (SIGINT), which Canada defines as “the interception and analysis of communications and other electronic signals.”2 Originally a means of intercepting radio signals, including radio and traffic sent by telegraph, SIGINT in 2015 encompasses all electronic communications and more traditional physical methods. The value of SIGINT to a country is straightforward; it opens a window into the communications of others, revealing adversaries’ plans and thereby supporting one’s ability to bolster national security. SIGINT has enjoyed an unexpected spotlight since 2013 due to the revelations of extensive programs by the Five Eyes collecting intelligence on private citizens, disclosed by National Security Agency (NSA)