NOAA Technical Memorandum NWSTM PR-54 2006 Tropical Cyclones Central North Pacific Andy Nash Tim Craig Sam Houston Roy Matsuda Jeff Powell Ray Tanabe Jim Weyman Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii July 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS Overview Hurricane Daniel Hurricane Ioke Tropical Depression 02-C Tropical Depression 03-C Tropical Depression 04-C Overview of the 2006 Central North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season The central Pacific tropical cyclone season had near normal activity despite the development of a relatively weak El Nino in September 2006. A total of five tropical cyclones occurred during the season, including two hurricanes. One of the hurricanes, Ioke, reached category 5 intensity and set several central Pacific tropical cyclone records. The other three systems only reached tropical depression intensity. Two signals of El Nino was that 4 of the 5 systems developed within the central Pacific basin where ocean waters were warmer than normal and the three depressions occurred from mid-September to mid- October. Based on long-term averages, the typical season has 4.4 total tropical cyclones, 1.6 being hurricanes, 1.3 tropical storms and 1.5 tropical depressions. Ioke struck Johnston Island with peak winds estimated to be in the 95 to 115 knots range. This resulted in significant damage to vegetation and coastal erosion. The native bird population was also affected, however no injuries occurred despite a survey crew being on the otherwise uninhabited island at the time. Remnants of both Hurricane Daniel and TD-04C helped fuel locally heavy rains across the Big Island. Table 1. Summary table (Daniel and Ioke data only for the Central Pacific) Name Dates Max Wind Est. Minimum Pressure Hurricane Daniel Jul 24-26 80 kt/ 90 mph 980 mb/28.94 in Hurricane Ioke Aug 19-26 140 kt/160 mph 915 mb/27.02 in TD two-c Sep 18-20 30 kt/ 35 mph 1007 mb/29.74 in TD three-c Sep 26 30 kt/ 35 mph 1008 mb/29.77 in TD four-c Oct 13-14 30 kt/ 35 mph 1007 mb/29.74 in Table 2. Overall Track Verification. Table entries are track forecast errors, measured in nautical miles. Values in parentheses indicate the number of forecasts. Values in bold represent guidance forecast errors equal to or less than the official CPHC forecast. Forecast 12 hr 24 hr 36 hr 48 hr 72 hr 96 hr 120 hr CPHC 32.6 51.5 73.0 89.6 111.9 157.3 227.5 CLP5 45.3 86.0 135.5 198.0 290.0 317.9 367.2 BAMD 34.6 54.1 73.4 83.7 73.5 98.1 132.7 BAMM 31.6 49.1 65.5 81.8 75.1 100.9 135.2 BAMS 43.1 75.6 115.9 162.5 240.0 313.5 377.2 GFDL 29.1 45.7 64.2 82.2 101.5 140.3 202.3 AVNO 42.5 63.8 84.7 94.7 109.9 143.0 176.8 GUNS 28.4 55.5 86.0 105.5 131.1 182.8 253.8 GUNA 28.6 50.9 75.4 91.3 109.9 158.0 223.1 CONU 27.1 48.3 70.9 88.0 112.1 155.1 221.4 UKMET 45.3 98.9 91.5 103.8 118.0 149.2 204.3 NOGAPS 33.2 55.8 88.7 109.7 140.4 185.1 253.4 Table 3. Overall Wind Verification. Table entries are errors in maximum sustained wind speed forecasts, measured in knots. Values in the parentheses indicate the number of forecasts. Values in bold represent guidance forecast errors equal to or less than the official CPHC forecast. Forecast 12 hr 24 hr 36 hr 48 hr 72 hr 96 hr 120 hr CPHC 9.7 17.5 22.8 23.5 25.0 34.3 43.4 GFDL 9.2 14.4 17.0 18.4 16.9 20.4 19.4 AVNO 52.2 62.3 72.4 83.2 94.4 99.6 100.7 SHF5 12.9 22.8 31.7 39.3 88.8 106.9 93.7 SHIP 11.5 26.6 38.5 50.3 65.0 81.4 90.2 ICON 9.2 19.7 26.4 32.8 34.8 44.0 51.6 NOGAPS 46.4 52.8 58.2 62.6 69.7 74.8 76.1 HURRICANE DANIEL 24-26 July 2006 OVERVIEW. Tropical Depression (TD) 5-E formed south of Baja California near 12.4N 109.9W at 0000 UTC 17 July then quickly intensified and became Tropical Storm Daniel 12 hours later near 12.4N 112.2W. Development continued unabated until Daniel became a hurricane at 1800 UTC 18 July near 11.9N 117.6W. Thanks to favorable SSTs and low shear environment, Hurricane Daniel continued to strengthen as it moved west, reaching its peak of 130 knots on 22 July. Hurricane Daniel exhibited a relatively rare structure, with very little convection outside of a nearly perfectly symmetrical eye wall. This type of hurricane, known as an annular hurricane, has been shown to maintain its intensity longer than the average hurricane, and Daniel was no exception. However as it moved westward, Daniel began to slowly weaken and CPHC estimated the mean sustained winds to be 80 knots when it crossed 140W and moved into CPHC area of responsibility shortly before 1200 UTC 24 July. Although initially forecasted to maintain its intensity, Hurricane Daniel became a tropical storm within 18 hours of crossing 140W and a tropical depression within 36 hours. By the time it reached 16.2N 144.4W, CPHC classified it as a remnant low. SYNOPTIC HISTORY. On 24 July when Daniel crossed 140W, most track and intensity guidance suggested that Daniel would continue to slowly weaken and reach the main Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm in roughly 96 hours. At that time, the vertical wind shear in the vicinity of Daniel remained relatively low (9 knots from the east). The upper level easterlies south of a ridge to the north were projected to spread eastward. The strong southwesterly upper level flow across the Hawaiian Islands associated with an upper trough to the northwest was forecast to decrease as the trough receded northwestward. This would have resulted in reduced vertical shear as Daniel approached the Hawaiian Islands. However by 25 July at 0000 UTC, satellite loops showed Daniel was suffering the effects of unfavorable easterly shear estimated at 25 knots from the strong high to the north. Much of the cumulonimbus (convection) activity was pushed west of the low level circulation center (LLCC) and cloud tops had warmed. In addition, Daniel moved over 25 degrees C sea-surface temperatures and the low level northeast flow advected cooler and drier boundary layer air into Daniel’s circulation. By 25 July 0600 UTC, Daniel became a tropical storm located near 16.2N 143.1W and by 1200 UTC Daniel became nearly stationary in response to the weak environmental steering. The combination of the weak easterly shear and the ingestion of relatively cool and dry air at low levels caused Daniel to weaken to a tropical depression by 0000 UTC 26 July with the LLCC exposed and well defined and no active convection near the center. CPHC issued the last bulletin on Daniel at 2100 UTC 26 July and classified it as a dissipating remnant low with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots located about 800 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. IMPACTS: The remnant circulation of Daniel passed just south of the island of the Big Island of Hawaii on 28 July. Radar and rain gages recorded two to five inches of rainfall across windward areas of the Big Island and Maui on 28 and 29 July. The remnants also brought gusty easterly winds to the main Hawaiian Islands. For a brief period during the afternoon on 28 July, a wind gage at South Point on the Big Island recorded sustained winds of approximately 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Table 4. Best Track Data Date/Time Latitude Longitude Pressure Wind Speed Stage/Notes (UTC) (°N) (°W) (mb) (kt) 24 / 1200 16.2 140.4 980 80 Hurricane 24 / 1800 16.2 141.3 985 75 " 25 / 0000 16.2 141.8 994 65 " 25 / 0600 16.2 142.3 999 55 Tropical Storm 25 / 1200 16.2 142.4 1003 45 " 25 / 1800 16.2 142.6 1004 35 " 26 / 0000 16.2 142.8 1006 30 Tropical Depression 26 / 0600 16.2 142.9 1008 30 " 26 / 1200 16.2 143.1 1009 25 " 26 / 1800 16.1 143.6 1009 25 " 27 / 0000 16.2 144.4 1009 25 remnant low 27 / 0600 16.3 145.1 1009 25 " 27 / 1200 16.9 146.6 1009 25 " 27 / 1800 17.2 147.4 1009 25 " 28 / 0000 17.4 148.8 1010 25 " 28 / 0600 17.6 150.1 1010 25 " 28 / 1200 17.8 151.8 1010 25 " Table 5. Overall Track Verification. Table entries are track forecast errors, measured in nautical miles. Values in parentheses indicate the number of forecasts. Values in bold represent guidance forecast errors equal to or less than the official CPHC forecast. Forecast 12-hr 24-hr 36-hr 48-hr 72-hr 96-hr 120-hr CPHC 42 (8) 103 (6) 201 (4) 283 (2) n/a n/a n/a CLP5 45 (8) 114 (6) 218 (4) 354 (2) n/a n/a n/a BAMD 44 (8) 96 (6) 195 (4) 308 (2) n/a n/a n/a BAMM 38 (8) 65 (6) 109 (4) 176 (2) n/a n/a n/a BAMS 25 (8) 39 (6) 66 (4) 110 (2) n/a n/a n/a GFDL 36 (8) 37 (6) 49 (4) 136 (2) n/a n/a n/a AVNO 34 (8) 51 (6) 65 (4) 76 (2) n/a n/a n/a GUNS 41 (8) 97 (6) 177 (4) 267 (2) n/a n/a n/a GUNA 36 (8) 79 (6) 139 (4) 216 (2) n/a n/a n/a CONU 34 (8) 78 (6) 142 (4) 231 (2) n/a n/a n/a UKMET 61 (4) 149 (3) 211 (2) 348 (1) n/a n/a n/a NOGAPS 35 (8) 90 (6) 177 (4) 286 (2) n/a n/a n/a Table 6.