‘Icy Futures’: Carving the Northern Sea Route Satya Savitzky (BA, MA) This thesis is submitted in part fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Submitted January, 2016 I declare that this thesis is my own work, and has not been submitted in substantially the same form for the reward of a higher degree elsewhere. (Total word count: 81516) 1 Abstract The research examines intersections between globalisation and climate change in the (re)emergence of a 'Northern Sea Route' through the Russian Arctic, which some speculate could soon rival or replace the Suez Canal as major global trade artery. The research explores shifts in the contemporary shipping system, a relatively underexplored area of mobilities research, examining the affordances and risks posed to shipping and resource extraction activities by melting Arctic sea-ice, as sections of the maritime Arctic become increasingly integrated into global circuits. The research examines actual and potential developments surrounding the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Russian Arctic, examining the ways geopolitics, geoeconomics and geophysical processes collide in the ‘Anthropocene Arctic’. 2 ‘Icy Futures’: Carving the Northern Sea Route Satya Savitzky Contents Preface/Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... 6 Chapter one: introduction........................................................................................................... 7 Globalisation, cargo shipping and climate change ............................................................... 10 Anthropocene, routes, resources and routines...................................................................... 15 Elements, tipping points, boundary crossings and futures ................................................... 17 Reorientations and disciplinary ports of call ........................................................................ 18 Chapter outlines ................................................................................................................... 21 Chapter two: theory and methods ............................................................................................ 25 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 25 Materialist ontology ............................................................................................................. 26 Routes .................................................................................................................................. 31 Paths and power ............................................................................................................... 34 Lines and Loops ............................................................................................................... 35 Routes and turbulence ...................................................................................................... 36 Logistics ........................................................................................................................... 37 Resources ............................................................................................................................. 38 Fossil fuels and societies .................................................................................................. 39 Oil-dependence ................................................................................................................ 41 Carbon capital .................................................................................................................. 43 Resource and energy routes ............................................................................................. 46 Wastes .................................................................................................................................. 48 Wastes and climate change processes .............................................................................. 49 Futures.................................................................................................................................. 52 Maritime reorientation ......................................................................................................... 55 Circumpolar reorientation .................................................................................................... 59 Mobilities reorientation ........................................................................................................ 64 Methods and mobilities ........................................................................................................ 66 The Internet and research ................................................................................................. 70 Methods and sources ............................................................................................................ 72 Interviews ......................................................................................................................... 73 3 Secondary sources ............................................................................................................ 75 Conclusion to section ........................................................................................................... 77 Chapter three: water worlds ..................................................................................................... 80 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 80 Maritime globalisation ......................................................................................................... 82 Scale ..................................................................................................................................... 88 Speed .................................................................................................................................... 90 Maritime chokepoints .......................................................................................................... 93 Elemental turbulence............................................................................................................ 96 Satellites and the ‘sea of data’.............................................................................................. 98 Ocean-space governance .................................................................................................... 101 Old passages return ............................................................................................................ 104 ‘Sea power’ ........................................................................................................................ 106 Oceans and climate ............................................................................................................ 111 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 113 Chapter four: ‘a new Arctic’ .................................................................................................. 118 Defining the Arctic ............................................................................................................ 119 Anthropocene Arctic .......................................................................................................... 121 Mapping the Northern Sea Route ....................................................................................... 128 ‘Accumulation by degradation’ ......................................................................................... 135 Tschudi Group ................................................................................................................... 139 New Arctic nodes and routes ............................................................................................. 145 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 149 Chapter five: Securing flows.................................................................................................. 152 Introduction: Insulation and isolation ................................................................................ 152 Arctic turbulence ................................................................................................................ 155 Insulation............................................................................................................................ 156 Ice-breakers .................................................................................................................... 156 Ice-pilots ........................................................................................................................ 162 Ice-forecasting ................................................................................................................ 163 Communications ............................................................................................................ 170 Unruly flows ...................................................................................................................... 173 Oil spills ......................................................................................................................... 173 Carbon seeps .................................................................................................................