The Impact of Satellite Data in the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation John Le Marshall (JCSDA) Director, JCSDA 2004-2007 Lars-Peter Rishojgaard 2007- … Overview • Background • The Challenge • The JCSDA • The Satellite Program • Recent Advances • Impact of Satellite Data • Plans/Future Prospects • Summary CDAS/Reanl vs GFS NH/SH 500Hpa day 5 Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S) 90 NH GFS 85 SH GFS NH CDAS/Reanl 80 SH CDAS/Reanl 75 70 65 60 Anomaly Correlation Anomaly Correlation 55 50 45 40 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR Data Assimilation Impacts in the NCEP GDAS N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20 15 Jan - 15 Feb '03 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 control 0.5 no amsu 0.4 no conv 0.3 Anomaly Correlation 0.2 0.1 0 1234567891011121314151617 Forecast [days] AMSU and “All Conventional” data provide nearly the same amount of improvement to the Northern Hemisphere. Impact of Removing Selected Satellite Data on Hurricane Track Forecasts in the East Pacific Basin 140 120 100 Control No AMSU 80 No HIRS 60 No GEO Wind 40 No QSC 20 Average Track ErrorsAverage [NM] 0 12 24 36 48 Forecst Time [hours] Anomaly correlation for days 0 to 7 for 500 hPa geopotential height in the zonal band 20°-80° for January/February. The red arrow indicate use of satellite data in the forecast model has doubled the length of a useful forecast. The Challenge Satellite Systems/Global Measurements GRACE Aqua Cloudsat CALIPSO TRMM SSMIS GIFTS TOPEX NPP Landsat MSG Meteor/ SAGE GOES-R COSMIC/GPS NOAA/ POES NPOESS SeaWiFS Terra Jason Aura ICESat SORCE WindSAT 5-Order Magnitude Increase in satellite Data Over 10 Years Daily Upper Air Satellite Instruments Observation Count by Platform NPOESS METEOP NOAA Windsat GOES DMSP Count Count (Millions) 1990 Year 2010 Year NPOESSNPOESS SatelliteSatellite -- OriginalOriginal CMIS ATMS CMIS- μwave imager VIIRS VIIRS- vis/IR imager CrIS CrIS- IR sounder ATMS- μwave sounder OMPS- ozone GPSOS- GPS occultation ADCS- data collection SESS- space environment APS- aerosol polarimeter SARSAT - search & rescue TSIS- solar irradiance OMPS ERBS ERBS- Earth radiation budget ALT- altimeter SS- survivability monitor TheThe NPOESSNPOESS spacecraftspacecraft hashas thethe requirementrequirement toto operateoperate inin threethree differentdifferent sunsun synchronoussynchronous orbits,orbits, 1330,1330, 21302130 andand 17301730 withwith differentdifferent configurationsconfigurations ofof fourteenfourteen differentdifferent environmentalenvironmental sensorssensors thatthat provideprovide environmentalenvironmental datadata recordsrecords (EDRs) (EDRs) for for space, space, ocean/ ocean/water,water, land, land, radiation radiation clouds clouds and and atmospheric atmospheric parameters. parameters. InIn orderorder toto meetmeet thisthis requirement,requirement, thethe primeprime NPOESSNPOESS contractor,contractor, NorthropNorthrop GrummanGrumman SpaceSpace Technology,Technology, isis usingusing theirtheir flight-qualifiedflight-qualified NPOESSNPOESS T430T430 spspacecraft.acecraft. ThisThis spacecraftspacecraft leverageleveragess extensiveextensive experienceexperience onon NASA’sNASA’s EOSEOS AquaAqua and and Aura Aura programs programs that that inte integratedgrated similar similar se sensorsnsors as as NPOESS. NPOESS. AsAs waswas requiredrequired forfor EOS,EOS, thethe NPOESSNPOESS T430T430 structurestructure isis anan opticallyoptically andand dynamicallydynamically stablestable platformplatform specificallyspecifically designeddesigned for for earth earth observation observation miss missionsions with with complex complex sensor sensor suites. suites. InIn orderorder toto managemanage engineering,engineering, desidesign,gn, andand integrationintegration risks,risks, aa single single spacecrspacecraftaft busbus forfor allall threethree orbitsorbits providesprovides cost-effectivecost-effective supportsupport forfor acceleratedaccelerated launchlaunch call-upcall-up andand operationoperation requirementrequirement changes.changes. InIn mostmost cases,cases, aa sensorsensor cancan bebe easilyeasily deployeddeployed inin aa differedifferentnt orbitorbit becausebecause itit willwill bebe placedplaced inin thethe samesame positionposition onon thethe anyany spacecraft.spacecraft. ThereThere areare ampleample resourceresource marginsmargins foforr thethe sensors,sensors, allowingallowing forfor compcompenensationsation duedue toto changeschanges inin sensorsensor requirementsrequirements and and future future planned planned improvements. improvements. TheThe spacecraftspacecraft stillstill hashas reservereserve massmass aandnd powerpower marginmargin forfor thethe mostmost stressstressiingng 13301330 orbit,orbit, whichwhich hashas eleveneleven sensors.sensors. TheThe fivefive panelpanel solarsolar array,array, expandableexpandable toto six,six, isis oneone design,design, providingproviding powerpower inin thethe differentdifferent orbitsorbits andand configurations.configurations. GOESGOES -- RR ABI – Advanced Baseline Imager Total radiances over 24 hours = 172, 500, 000, 000 GS – GOES Sounder SEISS – Space Environment In-Situ Suite including the Magnetospheric Particle Sensor (MPS); Energetic Heavy Ion Sensor (EHIS); Solar & Galactic Proton Sensor (SGPS) SIS – Solar Imaging Suite including the Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI); Solar X-Ray Sensor (SXS); Extreme Ultraviolet Sensor (EUVS) GLM – GEO Lightning Mapper The Center History April 2000, a small team of senior NASA and NOAA managers release a white paper1 containing plans to improve and increase the use of satellite data for global numerical weather models. The white paper provided a specific recommendation to establish a Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). This white paper came in response to a growing urgency for more accurate and improved weather and climate analyses and forecasts. These improvements could only be made possible by the development of improved models and data assimilation techniques, which allow models to utilize more and better quality data. 1 A NASA and NOAA plan to maximize the utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts. Franco Einaudi, Louis Uccellini, James F. W. Purdom, Alexander Mac Donald, April 2000. History In 2001 the Joint Center was established2 by NASA and NOAA and in 2002, the JCSDA expanded its partnerships to include the U.S. Navy and Air Force weather agencies. 2 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation: Luis Uccellini, Franco Einaudi, James F. W. Purdom, David Rogers: April 2000. JCSDA Partners Pending JCSDA Structure Associate Administrators NASA: Science NOAA: NESDIS, NWS, OAR DoD: Navy, Air Force Management Oversight Board of Directors: NOAA NWS: L. Uccellini (Chair) NASA GSFC: F. Einaudi Advisory Rotating NOAA NESDIS: M. Colton Chair Panel NOAA OAR: M. Uhart Navy: S. Chang USAF: J. Lanici/M. Farrar Technical Liaisons: Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Staff NOAA/NWS/NCEP – J. Derber Director: J. Le Marshall NASA/GMAO – M. Rienecker Science Deputy Directors: NOAA/OAR – A. Gasiewski Steering Stephen Lord – NWS /NCEP NOAA/NESDIS – D. Tarpley James Yoe - NESDIS Committee Navy – N. Baker Lars Peter Riishogjaard – GSFC, GMAO USAF – M. McATee Pat Phoebus – DoD,NRL Army – G. Mc Williams Secretary: Ada Armstrong Consultant: George Ohring JCSDA Structure Associate Administrators NASA: Science NOAA: NESDIS, NWS, OAR DoD: Navy, Air Force Management Oversight Board of Directors: NOAA NWS: L. Uccellini (Chair) NASA GSFC: F. Einaudi Advisory Rotating NOAA NESDIS: M. Colton Chair Panel NOAA OAR: M. Uhart Navy: S. Chang USAF: J. Lanici/M. Farrar Technical Liaisons: Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Staff NOAA/NWS/NCEP – J. Derber Director: Lars Peter Riishogjaard NASA/GMAO – M. Rienecker Science Deputy Directors: NOAA/OAR – A. Gasiewski Steering Stephen Lord – NWS /NCEP NOAA/NESDIS – D. Tarpley Committee Fuzhong Weng - NESDIS Navy – N. Baker M. Rienecker – GSFC, GMAO USAF – M. McATee Pat Phoebus – DoD,NRL Army – G. Mc Williams Secretary: Ada Armstrong Consultant: George Ohring JCSDA Advisory Board • Provides high level Contributions from guidance to JCSDA Name Organization Management Oversight T Hollingsworth ECMWF Board T. Vonder Haar CIRA P. Courtier Meteo France E. Kalnay UMD R. Anthes UCAR J. Purdom CIRA P. Rizzoli MIT JCSDA Science Steering Committee Contributions from • Provides scientific Name Organization guidance to JCSDA P. Menzel (Chair) NESDIS Director R. Atlas AOML − Reviews proposals C. Bishop NRL R. Errico GSFC − Reviews projects J. Eyre UK Met Office − Reviews priorities S. English UK Met Office L. Garand CMC A. McNally ECMWF G. Kelly ECMWF S.Koch ESRL B. Navasques KNMI F. Toepfer NWS A. Busalacchi ESSIC JCSDA Technical Liaisons •Technical Liaisons JCSDA Technical Liaisons Liaison Name Organization - Represent their J. Derber EMC organizations M. Rienecker GMAO - Review proposals A. Gasiewski OWAQR and project progress D. Tarpley ORA - Interact with N. Baker NRL principal M. McAtee AFWA investigators JCSDA Mission and Vision • Mission: Accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather. ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models • Vision: A weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction community empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations and to effectively use the integrated observations of the GEOSS JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010) 3D VAR -----------------------------------------------------4D VAR By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be The