Climate Change and Our Natural Resources A Report from the Treaty Tribes in Western Washington November 2016 Front cover images (Top left, clockwise): Mary Leitka, Hoh tribal member, bundles cedar bark for use in weaving baskets; Quinault tribal fisherman Sam Goodman works his fishing net on the Quinault River early in the blueback, or sockeye, fishing season; the Pacific Ocean. Photos: Debbie Preston, NWIFC. Adult chum. Photo: Fran Wilshusen, NWIFC. Climate Change and Our Natural Resources TABLE OF CONTENTS Principal Message ...................................................................................................................................................................iv Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................v Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................v Climate Change Impacts to Tribal Rights and Resources ..........................................................................................................v Global Warming and Regional Climate Change ....................................................................................................................vi Moving Forward ...............................................................................................................................................................vi 1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................1 2. The Treaty Tribes and Our Homelands .....................................................................................................................................1 2.1 Physical Setting ............................................................................................................................................................1 2.2 Ecological Setting ....................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 The Changing Landscape ............................................................................................................................................ 3 2.4 Tribal Sovereignty and Treaty Rights ............................................................................................................................... 4 3. Global Warming and Climate Change .................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1 Observations of a Warming World ................................................................................................................................. 5 3.2 Pacific Northwest Climate Trends .................................................................................................................................. 6 3.3 Regional Climate Projections ........................................................................................................................................ 6 3.4 Overview of Implications for Treaty-Protected Resources .................................................................................................. 7 4. Freshwater Aquatic Environments .......................................................................................................................................... 8 4.1 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 4.2 People of the Salmon .................................................................................................................................................. 8 4.3 Snowpack and Glaciers ............................................................................................................................................... 9 4.4 Stream Temperatures .................................................................................................................................................. 11 4.5 Streamflow Patterns ....................................................................................................................................................12 Taking Action: Jamestown S’Klallam Tribe’s Strategy for Dungeness River Floodplain Protection and Restoration .............................16 4.6 Sediment in Streams ...................................................................................................................................................17 4.7 Freshwater Wetlands ..................................................................................................................................................18 4.8 Resilience in Freshwater Environments ..........................................................................................................................19 Taking Action: Nooksack Indian Tribe Climate Change Research .............................................................................................21 5. Coastal and Marine Environments ....................................................................................................................................... 22 5.1 Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 22 5.2 When the Tide is Out, the Table is Set .......................................................................................................................... 22 5.3 Ocean Temperatures ................................................................................................................................................. 22 5.4 Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................................................................... 25 Taking Action: Storm Surge at the Quinault Indian Nation Village of Taholah ............................................................................ 28 5.5 Ocean Acidification ................................................................................................................................................... 29 Taking Action: Makah Tribe Ocean Acidification Research ......................................................................................................31 5.6 Coastal Hypoxia ....................................................................................................................................................... 32 5.7 Resilience in Coastal and Marine Environments ............................................................................................................. 32 Taking Action: Lummi Nation Wetland and Habitat Mitigation Bank ....................................................................................... 34 6. Terrestrial and Upland Environments .................................................................................................................................... 35 6.1 Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 35 6.2 The Tree of Life .......................................................................................................................................................... 35 6.3 Shifts in egetationV Ranges ......................................................................................................................................... 37 6.4 Shifts in ildlifeW Ranges ............................................................................................................................................. 38 6.5 Productivity and Phenology ........................................................................................................................................ 39 6.6 Wildfire.................................................................................................................................................................... 39 6.7 Disease and Pests ...................................................................................................................................................... 40 A Report from the Treaty Tribes in Western Washington i TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) 6.8 Landslides and Mass Movement ...................................................................................................................................41 6.9 Resilience in Terrestrial Environments ............................................................................................................................41 Taking Action: Swinomish Indian Tribal Community Forest Resilience ....................................................................................... 42 7. Impacts Across the Landscape ............................................................................................................................................. 43 7.1 Chapter Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 7.2 Interactions with Existing Ecological Stressors ..............................................................................................................