West Sussex County Council A29 REALIGNMENT Transport Business Case TBC-R4 APRIL 2019 CONFIDENTIAL West Sussex County Council A29 REALIGNMENT Transport Business Case TYPE OF DOCUMENT (VERSION) CONFIDENTIAL PROJECT NO. 70031782 OUR REF. NO. TBC-R4 DATE: APRIL 2019 WSP Regus House Southampton International Business Park, George Curl Way Southampton, Hampshire SO18 2RZ Phone: +44 238 030 2529 Fax: +44 238 030 2001 WSP.com CONFIDENTIAL QUALITY CONTROL Issue/revision First issue Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Final Remarks Working Draft Draft Final Draft (for Final Draft Final for WSCC final (for WSCC C2C LEP updated) final updated) Date 09/12/2018 18/12/2018 20/12/2018 24/12/2018 04/04/2019 Prepared by Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Chris Chris Whitehead Chris Whitehead Chris Chris Whitehead Whitehead Whitehead Alex Georgeson Alex Georgeson Elaine Martin Alex Alex Elaine Martin Elaine Martin (WSCC) Georgeson Georgeson (WSCC) (WSCC) Elaine Martin Elaine (WSCC) Martin (WSCC) Signature Checked by Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Marc Griffin Signature Authorised by Alan Cowan Alan Cowan Alan Cowan Alan Cowan Alan Cowan Signature Project number 70031782 70031782 70031782 70031782 70031782 Report number 70031782-TBC- 70031782-TBC- 70031782-TBC- 70031782- 70031782- 01 R1 R2 TBC-R3 TBC-R4 File reference \\uk.wspgroup.com\central data\Projects\700317xx\70031782 - WSCC - A29 Prelim Design and O\02 WIP\BC Business Case\Transport Business Case A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION 1 STRATEGIC CASE SUMMARY 1 OVERVIEW 1 POLICY BACKGROUND AND BUSINESS STRATEGY 1 National Policies 1 Regional Policies 2 Local Policies 2 EXISTING TRANSPORT-RELATED PROBLEMS 4 FUTURE TRANSPORT-RELATED PROBLEMS 4 OPTIONS AND THE PROPOSED SCHEME 4 Scheme Aim & Objective 4 Scope and Constraints 4 Options Considered 4 Proposed Scheme 5 Achievement of Objectives 6 ECONOMIC CASE SUMMARY 6 Benefit Cost Ratio 6 Value for Money Category 6 FINANCIAL CASE SUMMARY 6 COMMERCIAL CASE SUMMARY 6 MANAGEMENT CASE SUMMARY 7 1 INTRODUCTION 8 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE TRANSPORT BUSINESS CASE 8 1.2 BACKGROUND 8 1.3 STRUCTURE OF THE TRANSPORT BUSINESS CASE 10 2 THE SCHEME 11 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council 2.1 LOCATION OF THE SCHEME 11 2.1.10 OVERVIEW 12 2.2 SCHEME DESIGN 14 2.2.2 ALTERATIONS TO THE ADJACENT ROAD NETWORK 14 2.2.4 PROVISION FOR OTHER USERS 14 3 STRATEGIC CASE 15 3.1 INTRODUCTION 15 3.2 POLICY BACKGROUND AND BUSINESS STRATEGY 16 3.2.1 OVERVIEW 16 3.2.3 NATIONAL POLICIES 17 3.2.18 REGIONAL POLICIES 19 3.2.37 LOCAL POLICIES 22 3.3 EXISTING PROBLEMS 25 3.4 FUTURE PROBLEMS – THE IMPACT OF NOT CHANGING 26 3.5 DRIVERS FOR CHANGE 27 3.6 SCHEME AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 27 3.7 MEASURES FOR SUCCESS 28 3.7.4 MONITORING & EVALUATION 28 3.8 SCOPE 29 3.8.1 IN SCOPE 29 3.8.4 OUT OF SCOPE 30 3.9 CONSTRAINTS 30 3.10 INTERDEPENDENCIES 31 3.11 OPTIONS 31 3.11.1 BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY 31 3.11.15 OPTION DEVELOPMENT (FOLLOWING PREVIOUS STUDIES) 40 3.11.19 OPTIONS ASSESSED 42 3.12 CONSULTATION WITH KEY STAKEHOLDERS 43 3.12.3 KEY STAKEHOLDERS 44 3.12.14 FURTHER CONSULTATION 45 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council 3.13 EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED SCHEME 45 3.13.1 LOCAL MODEL VALIDATION REPORT 45 3.13.7 OPTION DEVELOPMENT - TRANSPORT BUSINESS CASE 46 3.13.19 TRAFFIC FLOWS 48 3.13.23 DO MINIMUM AND PHASE 1 (NORTH) 49 3.13.32 DO MINIMUM AND PHASE 1 (NORTH) AND 2 (SOUTH) 56 3.13.43 JOURNEY TIMES 64 3.13.46 2023 DO MINIMUM AND DO SOMETHING 64 3.13.51 2038 DO MINIMUM AND DO SOMETHING 67 3.14 DEPENDENT DEVELOPMENT 71 3.15 ACCIDENT REDUCTIONS 73 3.16 STRATEGIC CASE SUMMARY 75 3.16.1 OVERVIEW 75 3.16.5 POLICY BACKGROUND AND BUSINESS STRATEGY 75 3.16.9 EXISTING TRANSPORT-RELATED PROBLEMS 75 3.16.11 FUTURE TRANSPORT-RELATED PROBLEMS 76 3.16.13 OPTIONS AND THE PROPOSED SCHEME 76 4 ECONOMIC CASE 79 4.1 INTRODUCTION 79 4.2 OPTIONS APPRAISED 79 4.2.2 OPTION IDENTIFICATION AND SHORTLISTING 79 4.2.4 OPTION ASSESSMENT 81 4.2.7 PREFERRED OPTION – OPTION 2 = PHASE 1 (NORTH) AND PHASE 2 (SOUTH) 81 4.3 COST ESTIMATION 81 4.4 BENEFITS MODELLING 82 4.4.3 FORECAST BENEFITS 84 4.4.6 USER BENEFITS 84 4.4.9 MARGINAL EXTERNALITIES 85 4.4.12 ACCIDENT ASSESSMENT 85 4.4.15 DELAYS DURING CONSTRUCTION 86 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council 4.5 APPRAISAL ASSUMPTIONS 86 4.6 APPRAISAL RESULTS 86 4.7 SENSITIVITY TESTING 88 4.7.2 COST AND BENEFIT SENSITIVITIES 88 4.7.5 SWITCHING VALUES 88 4.8 APPRAISAL SUMMARY TABLE 88 4.8.2 ENVIRONMENTAL 88 4.8.4.1 Noise 88 4.8.6.1 Air Quality 89 4.8.7.1 Greenhouse gases 89 4.8.8.1 Landscape & Townscape 89 4.8.11.1 Historic Environment 89 4.8.12.1 Biodiversity 89 4.8.14.1 Water Environment 89 4.8.18 SOCIAL 90 4.8.18.1 Physical activity 90 4.8.19.1 Journey quality 90 4.8.20.1 Accidents 90 4.8.21.1 Security 90 4.8.22.1 Access to services 90 4.8.23.1 Affordability 90 4.8.24.1 Severance 91 4.8.25.1 Option and non-use values 91 4.8.27 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS 91 4.9 WIDER IMPACTS 91 4.10 LAND VALUE UPLIFT 91 4.10.4 LAND VALUE UPLIFT ESTIMATE 92 4.10.4.1 Assumptions 92 4.10.6.1 Results 92 4.11 VALUE FOR MONEY STATEMENT 93 4.12 ECONOMIC CASE SUMMARY 96 4.12.2 BENEFIT COST RATIO 96 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council 4.12.4 VALUE FOR MONEY CATEGORY 96 4.12.6 DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT APPRAISAL 96 5 FINANCIAL CASE 97 5.1 INTRODUCTION 97 5.2 COSTS 97 5.2.12 SCHEME PREPARATION AND CONSTRUCTION 98 5.2.14 RISK BUDGET 99 5.2.16 SPEND PROFILE 99 5.2.18 OUT-TURN PRICE ADJUSTMENT 99 5.3 BUDGETS AND FUNDING COVER 99 5.4 WHOLE LIFE COSTS 101 5.5 CAPITAL RENEWAL COSTS 101 5.6 ANNUAL MAINTENANCE AND OPERATING COSTS 101 5.7 ACCOUNTING IMPLICATIONS: CASH FLOW STATEMENT 102 5.8 SUMMARY OF THE FINANCIAL CASE 102 6 COMMERCIAL CASE 103 6.1 INTRODUCTION 103 6.2 PROCUREMENT STRATEGY 103 6.3 FORM OF CONTRACT 104 6.3.2 FORM OF CONTRACT OPTIONS 104 6.3.8 FORM OF CONTRACT DISCUSSION 104 6.3.12 PREFERRED FORM OF CONTRACT 105 6.4 FORM OF PROCUREMENT 105 6.4.5 PROCUREMENT OPTIONS 105 6.4.16 PROCUREMENT DISCUSSION 107 6.4.24 PREFERRED PROCUREMENT ROUTE 108 6.5 CONTRACT STRATEGY 108 6.6 SELECTED PROCUREMENT STRATEGY 108 6.7 DESIGN ORGANISATION 109 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council 6.8 PAYMENT MECHANISMS 109 6.9 PRICING FRAMEWORK AND CHARGING MECHANISMS 109 6.10 RISK ALLOCATION AND TRANSFER 109 6.11 CONTRACT LENGTH 109 6.12 HUMAN RESOURCE ISSUES 110 6.13 CONTRACT MANAGEMENT 110 6.14 SUMMARY OF THE COMMERCIAL CASE 111 7 MANAGEMENT CASE 112 7.1 INTRODUCTION 112 7.2 EVIDENCE OF SIMILAR PROJECTS 112 7.2.3 DELIVERY TEAM EXPERIENCE 114 7.2.7 CONTRACTOR EXPERIENCE 114 7.3 THE PROJECT PLAN 114 7.4 GOVERNANCE, ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE & ROLES 114 7.4.1 PROJECT BOARD 114 7.4.8 WSP PROJECT DELIVERY TEAM 116 7.4.11 AVOIDING CONFLICTS OF INTEREST 116 7.4.13 WSCC ASSESSMENT TEAM 117 7.5 THE PROJECT PROGRAMME 117 7.6 PROGRAMME DEPENDENCIES 117 7.7 ASSURANCE AND APPROVALS PLAN 117 7.7.1 GATEWAY REVIEWS 117 7.7.4 PROGRAMME FOR GATEWAY REVIEWS 118 7.7.6 FUNDING ASSURANCE 119 7.8 FINANCIAL PLAN 119 7.9 COMMUNICATIONS AND STAKEHOLDERS MANAGEMENT PLAN 119 7.9.2 COMMUNICATION AND ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY 119 7.9.8 STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT PLAN 119 7.10 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY 122 7.10.2 RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS 122 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council 7.10.5 RISK IDENTIFICATION 123 7.10.10 QUANTIFICATION OF RISKS 124 7.10.16 MANAGING RISKS (RESPONSE PLANS AND MITIGATION) 124 7.10.19 IMPLEMENTATION AND REVIEW 125 7.10.21 SIGNIFICANT PROJECT RISKS IDENTIFIED 125 7.11 BENEFITS REALISATION PLAN 125 7.12 MONITORING AND EVALUATION PLAN 130 7.12.4 DESCRIPTION 132 7.12.6 LOGIC MODEL 132 7.12.8 TYPE OF EVALUATION 132 7.12.10 DATA REQUIREMENTS 132 7.12.12 SOURCES OF DATA 133 7.12.14 IMPLEMENTATION 134 7.12.17 RESPONSIBILITY 134 7.12.19 SETTING TARGETS 134 7.12.24 LINKING INDICATORS TO OUTCOMES 134 7.13 SUMMARY OF THE MANAGEMENT CASE 135 TABLES Table 3-1 - SEP Six Year Transport Investment Programme 21 Table 3-2: First Stage Evaluation Summary Table (Northern Extensions to Route A) 35 Table 3-3: First Stage Evaluation Summary Table (Northern Extensions to Route D) 35 Table 3-4: First Stage Evaluation Summary Table (Southern Extensions to Route A) 36 Table 3-5: First Stage Evaluation Summary Table (Southern Extensions to Route D) 36 Table 3-6: Option Assessment Summary 38 Table 3-7: A29 Realignment preferred option 42 Table 3-8: A29 Realignment preferred option – Comparison of AM Peak Traffic Flows on existing A29 and New A29 Realignment 43 Table 3-9: Comparison of Flows on A29 (AM peak) 50 Table 3-10: Comparison of Flows on A29 (IP) 50 A29 REALIGNMENT CONFIDENTIAL | WSP Project No.: 70031782 | Our Ref No.: TBC-R4 April 2019 West Sussex County Council Table 3-11: - Comparison of Flows on A29 (PM peak) 52 Table 3-12- Comparison of Flows on A29 (AM peak) 57 Table 3-13- Comparison of Flows on A29 (IP) 57 Table 3-14- Comparison of Flows on A29 (PM peak) 58 Table 3-15 - 2023 DM vs DS AM Peak - Journey time comparison 65 Table 3-16- 2023 DM vs DS Interpeak - Journey time comparison 65 Table 3-17- 2023 DM vs DS PM Peak - Journey time comparison