ISSN 0919-9748 Spring 2020 No.88 Opinion From Geo- to Helio-Centrism -- Int’l Cooperation Is the Prescription for Global Warming -- Focus INF and Japan’s National Security Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle Contents Spring 2020 No.88 1 • Opinion From Geo- to Helio-Centrism Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle -- Int’l Cooperation Is the Prescription for Global Warming-- Miya Bldg. 8th Fl. 4-3-4, Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, 4 • Focus Tokyo 102-0083, Japan INF and Japan’s National Security TEL : 81-3-3239-2091 FAX : 81-3-3239-2097 E-Mail [email protected] • Info-Clip Web Site http://www.cnfc.or.jp/ 3 Plutonium Management in Japan 11 Onagawa-2 Passed Safety Review 12 Restart Situation of Nuclear Power Stations Publisher Yuji Tsushima Editorial Offi ce Council for Nuclear Fuel Cycle CNFC Members of the Board Acting Chairman TSUSHIMA, Yuji Former Member of the House of Representatives Directors ETO, Akinori Member of the House of Representatives KIMURA, Jiro Member of the House of Representatives MORIMOTO, Satoshi Chancellor, Takushoku University TORII, Hiroyuki Former Professor, Tokyo Institute of Technology TSUSHIMA, Jun Member of the House of Representatives WATANABE, Shu Member of the House of Representatives YAMAMOTO, Yuji Member of the House of Representatives Auditors ASANO, Shuichi Certifi ed Public Accountant SHIMOYAMA, Shunji Former President, Japan Chapter Institute of Nuclear Material Management Akamon Gate at the University of Tokyo -a graduate and family taking pictures to commemorate - The university’s Hongo campus is the former Tokyo residence of the Kaga Domain (present-day Ishikawa Prefecture). The gate was constructed by the Kaga feudal lord (Maeda Nariyasu, the 13th lord of the Kaga Domain) in 1827 to receive Princess Yasu (Yasuhime), a daughter of the dictator of Japan in those days (Tokugawa Ienari, the 11th shogun of the Tokugawa shogunate), as his offi cial wife. The gate is called Aka- mon, literally red gate in Japanese (aka means red), because it is painted in so-called Chinese red, or vermillion. It was designated as the important cultural property of Ja- pan in 1931. Today, people sometimes say “Akamon” to mean the University of Tokyo. Akamon gate is very graceful, compared with other gates built by other feudal lords in the Edo period (1603–1868). It has old Chinese-style curved tile-roofed gatekeeper’s boxes on both sides. This rare and gorgeous feature of the roof matches the prestige of the Kaga Domain, which was the largest (1 million koku: koku is a measure of produc- tivity of land; the larger, the more powerful) of the feudal domains under the Tokugawa shogunate. The gate was originally at about 15 meters to the east from the current location. It was moved to the current site when the university expanded the campus area in 1903. Date of Issue : May 15, 2020 In 1970, there were large-scale public protests involving students against the United States-Japan Security Treaty. The gate was once covered with scratches made by the Designed by QB System Co., Ltd. student activists armed with wooden sticks, but restored afterwards. From Geo- to Helio-Centrism -- Int’l Cooperation Is the Prescription for Global Warming -- We human beings used to have the geo- The underlying notion of these kinds of without taking any measures against it until centric view of the universe, in which the views is that the volume of carbon dioxide the next glacier period? Obviously No! sun moves around the earth. This view (CO2) produced by human activities is The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was egocentric but intuitive. We actually too little to warm this huge Earth, which published by the United Nations Inter- live on the spherical earth, which rotates will cool in any case when the next gla- governmental Panel on Climate Change around its axis and orbits the sun. We cial period comes. Notice, however, that (IPCC) in 2007 stated, “It is very unlikely converted from the geocentric view to the the CO2 concentration on Earth was 280 that the Earth would naturally enter anoth- heliocentric one thanks to the scientific ppmv before the Industrial Revolution in er ice age for at least 30,000 years.” Some verifi cation of the heliocentric model and 1750, but increased by 40% to 400 ppmv consider it not necessary to do anything the discovery of the infinite vastness of by 2013 and counting. Some studies say against the global warming because it will the universe, which helped us realize that that, if this CO2 concentration of 400 be solved by nature in 10,000 or longer we are not in the center of the universe. ppmv continues, the area of surface ice years, whereas others such as the IPCC Earth rotates around its axis at about 1,670 and snow will not increase even if the so- consider it essential to take immediate km per hour at the equator. It orbits the lar irradiance on the Earth’s surface of the measures against the global warming. In Sun at 108,000 km per hour, and our Solar Northern Hemisphere due to, for instance, interpreting the same interglacial period, System moves around the center of the a change in the angle between the Earth’s there in a huge gap between the two. Milky Way galaxy at an inconceivably fast rotational axis and its orbital one; conse- Some scientists recommend more velocity of 864,000 km per hour. Today, quently, the transition from the interglacial strict and immediate measures against the a lot of information is shared across the to glacial period will be hampered. global warming. They are afraid that, if globe; so, few believe that we are at the The world population was about 800 Earth gets further warmer and the sea wa- center of the universe, I believe. million in 1750, and about 7.3 billion in ter temperature rises by more than three Prevention of global warming requires 2015. It is expected to grow to about 9.2 degrees Celsius, methane hydrate reserves international efforts. How are we address- billion by 2050. The rate of increase of under the ocean floor accumulated dur- ing this issue globally? Aren’t we still ob- the volume of CO2 is, however, not com- ing the glacial periods will be released as sessed by a notion similar to the obsolete parable to the rate of population increase, methane gas into the atmosphere, thereby geocentric view? Aren’t we denying the which is attributable to CO2 absorption raising the temperature further. This vi- global warming for political or personal by plants and the oceans, but it is thought cious circle will continue and accelerate. reasons? Actually, one country announced that recently the CO2 emission by human If CO2 and methane gases increase further, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, activities surpassed the volume absorbable human beings will suffer from the diffi cul- an international framework to prevent by plants and the oceans, thereby showing ty in breathing. And, if the situation today the global warming. Some scientists an increasing trend. The population will continues, human beings will be extinct in even deny the threat of the global warm- increase further. Earth’s glacial periods 200 years—or 80 years in the worst-case ing. They argue that presently we live in repeated at intervals of 100,000 years in the scenario. This is an extravagant warning. an interglacial period and this temperate modern age since 780,000 years ago. So, to According to the AR5 (2014) of the climate will last more than 10,000 years suppress the temperature rise, what should IPCC, during the period from 1880 to no matter what we do to fi ght against the we do? Can we just wait for the next gla- 2012, the averaged temperature on the global warming. cial period? Can we just emit CO2 freely globe increased by 0.85℃, and by the Plutonium No.88 Spring 2020 1 Opinion year 2100, it is predicted to increase fur- rate will be 1.7% and 0.5% by 2030 and tricity generation will be 84%, which is ther by 2.6 to 4.8℃ in the worst-case sce- 2050, respectively, and its annual energy Japan’s rate of electricity self-suffi ciency. nario. This prediction makes the above- saving rate will be 2.3% and 2.7% by 2030 In summary, according to the CRIEPI mentioned warning more realistic. What and 2050, respectively. It then estimates quantitative analysis, to accomplish the can we do to stop this temperature rise? Japan’s electricity demand in 2050 will strategic goal set by the government, Let us examine the measures taken by the be 1,100 TWh, and the electrifi cation rate which is 80% reduction of CO2 emissions Japanese Government. will be 28% and 50% in 2030 and 2050, by the year 2050, implement electrifica- respectively. Consequently, the CO2 emis- tion at all sectors as much as possible and In FY 2015, the business and public sion from the non-electric utility sector drastically increase the percentage of zero- service accounted for 78% of Japan’s such as industries and private households emission electricity such as renewable CO2 emission and the private households will decline to 182 million tons by 2050. energy, hydropower, and nuclear. 22%. The latter includes the CO2 emis- So, if the CO2 emission from the electric To realize the analysis result, or more sion from household cars --6%. The CO2 utility sector can be reduced to 65 million specifically, to introduce solar and wind emission by sector is as follows: industry tons, Japan will be able to accomplish powers on a large scale, storage battery 34%, commerce and service 22%, private 80% reduction of CO2 emission in 2050.