Norfolk Coast AONB Climate Change Adaptation Strategy March 2017 Salthouse, December 2013 1 CONTENTS 1. Executive summary 3 2. Introduction 2.1 Purpose of the strategy……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 2.2 Climate change in the Norfolk Coast………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 4 2.3 How the strategy has been developed and what it does……………………………………………………………………………………………. 5 2.4 Constraints on adaptation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6 3. Summary of key climate change effects, vulnerabilities and adaptation options 3.1 Section guide…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 8 3.2 Summary of vulnerabilities / map……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 3.3 General actions…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 12 3.4 Sea level rise……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 12 3.5 Local climate changes……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 15 3.6 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 19 4. Appendices Appendix 1 ‐ Tables derived from workshops Sea level rise………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 21 Local climate changes…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 24 Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 30 Appendix 2 ‐ Information sources used in study………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 31 2 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this strategy is to provide a framework for action in adapting to the effects of climate change in the Norfolk Coast AONB for organisations within the Norfolk Coast Partnership, implementing an agreed action in the AONB Action Plan 2014‐19 as part of the 2014‐19 AONB Management Strategy. The strategy recognises that it will not be possible over the longer term to maintain the area in its current state, but aims to identify ways in which the broad characteristics of its natural beauty can be maintained. The strategy has been developed with reference to a number of sources of scientific information on climate change and its potential impacts, combined with two workshops involving representatives on the Norfolk Coast Partnership Forum, which aimed to combine the information available on projections of climate change effects as locally as possible with local knowledge and insight into various aspects of the character of the AONB to: understand what effects we should expect locally on the Norfolk Coast from global climate change predict broadly how these might affect the area’s natural beauty, including its economy and communities, and identify adaptation measures and constraints – both those in progress and potential future actions, on various timescales The output from the workshops is presented in an Appendix 1 and key actions identified to adapt to the impacts of climate change on the area are summarised in section 3, which also includes a summary spatial picture of vulnerabilities to the effects of climate change and a consideration of constraints to adaptation. Key adaptation options identified include: Promoting understanding and acceptance of the local effects of climate change and the need for adaptation Measures to improve resilience and adaptation for coastal and inland habitats and species, including opportunities for new species Development of planning policy to enable effective roll‐back of assets and communities Transforming understanding and use of the water resource Better management of soils Contingency planning for extreme weather events Being aware of and exploiting new opportunities It is intended that identified actions that are not currently being undertaken are considered for future inclusion within the AONB Action Plan, maintaining the connection between this strategy and the full AONB Management Strategy and Action Plan. 3 2. INTRODUCTION 2.1 Purpose of the strategy The purpose of this strategy is to provide a framework for action in adapting to the effects of climate change in the Norfolk Coast AONB for organisations within the Norfolk Coast Partnership. Scientific evidence indicates that greenhouse gas emissions are the prime driver in current global climate change, but this strategy focuses on adaptation to the impacts of climate change rather than local reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Although very significant global reduction in emissions is crucial to keeping global climate change to a manageable level, and all local initiatives to achieve this globally are important, effective reduction on the Norfolk Coast alone would not make a significant contribution to global reduction. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, it is evident that adaptation measures will also be required, and these are potentially within the powers of local organisations, partnerships and communities to achieve. The strategy recognises that it will not be possible over the longer term to maintain the area in its current state, but aims to identify ways in which the broad characteristics of its natural beauty (see section 3.1 of the 2014‐19 AONB Management Plan) can be maintained, even though the details may change. The strategy aims to be proactive in planning and implementing climate change adaptation measures in advance of their immediate need, rather than reactive adaptation such as emergency closure of roads and car parks or reaction to impacts from coastal flooding on coastal nature reserves, heritage assets and properties ‐ which are forms of adaptation but not the planned response this strategy aims to promote. Ideally, such planned measures will be ‘no regret’ actions i.e. they will provide benefits in themselves and not constrain future adaptation that may be necessary. 2.2 Climate change in the Norfolk Coast Climate change is not aw ne driver of change for the Norfolk Coast. Geological evidence shows that very profound climate changes have affected the area in the recent geological past, culminating in the end of the last Ice Age around 13,000 years ago, followed by subsequent warming of our climate and very significant rises in sea level as the ice melted. Combined with the actions of humans in a period of relative climate stability, this has given us the area as we know it today. The global climate (i.e. longer‐term climate trends over decades, rather than short term weather variability over a period of a few years) is currently changing more rapidly than at any time during the Ice Ages, so our local climate is also inevitably changing. There are clear indications that this is happening, both in terms of scientific records and in everyday experience ‐ such as changes in the distribution of animal and plant species and events in the natural world such as the length of the growing season. 4 [return to contents page] Climate change is identified in the AONB Management Strategy as one of the key drivers of change, particularly in the future, with potential impacts on the area’s special qualities of natural beauty and its communities (see section 3.3 of the AONB Management Strategy 2014‐19, which contains summary information on projected climate change effects for the area, not repeated here). The need to produce a climate change adaptation strategy is recognised through an agreed action in the AONB Action Plan 2014‐19; this strategy is therefore a subsidiary strategy to the AONB Management Strategy. This strategy accepts that climate change is real and that we can expect it to have significant impacts on the Norfolk Coast. It also recognises that despite the level of scientific research in this field, because of the sheer complexity of the challenge, including the great range of variables and poorly understood interactions, both the magnitude and timescales, in some cases even the actual nature of the effects, are subject to considerable uncertainty. Amongst the uncertainties is whether we will be able to limit global temperature increase to 2oC, which is the agreed global political target, or indeed the more recent aspiration of 1.5 oC, which depends strongly on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, as well as other factors less well understood. Even a 2oC rise would have very significant effects, but on current trajectories for global emissions a global rise of 4oC or more is likely by 2100, with impacts that are difficult to imagine – although global efforts agreed at the 21st annual Conference of the Parties (COP21) agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are being made to limit the increase. Climate change is by no means the only driver of change in the Norfolk Coast (see ‘managing change’ on the NCP web site) and in most cases impacts of climate change on a particular feature of the AONB is likely to interact with other pressures. For example, birds that are struggling to cope with climate change driven impacts, such as a shortage of food, are likely to be more adversely affected by disturbance from recreational activities. 2.3 How the strategy has been developed and what it does The strategy has been developed with reference to a number of sources of scientific information on climate change and its potential impacts, combined with two workshops involving representatives on the Norfolk Coast Partnership Forum, which included a presentation from Prof Andrew Watkinson from the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia. The workshops aimed to combine the information available on projections of climate change effects as locally as possible with local knowledge and insight