DRAFT Assessment Chapter Contra Costa County Adapting to Rising Tides Project Ground Transportation Unlike other parts of the state where major transportation corridors are located inland, a significant proportion of the Bay Area’s critical transportation system is located on the shoreline. Transportation systems, including freeways, seaports, railroads, airports, local roads, mass transit, and bicycle and pedestrian facilities, connect shoreline communities to each other and to the rest of the region, state, nation, and the world. In addition, much of the region’s highest density development, businesses and industries are located on the shoreline and rely on a functioning transportation system. This chapter addresses ground transportation assets, focusing on rail lines, local streets and roads, and interstates. Other transportation-related assets include pipelines, marine oil terminals and seaports that are integral to goods movement; and bicycle and pedestrian trails that link people to the shoreline and provide active transportation opportunities. These are discussed in other chapters (see the Seaport, Energy, and Parks and Recreation Chapters). Transportation assets link people with community facilities and services, jobs, family and friends, recreation, and other important destinations. Contra Costa County, as well as Alameda County, are historically home to more residents than jobs, with a jobs-to- population ratio of about 0.39, or one position for every 2.5 residents (Contra Costa Economic Partnership, 2014). And while the majority of county residents work within the county (56%) this is less than the regional average of 66% (www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov). Forty-three percent of county residents work outside of the county, with almost a quarter commuting out of the East Bay each day, mostly to San Francisco and Santa Clara Counties. Inbound commuters fill almost 25% of the jobs located in the county, the largest share of which is from Solano County. The majority of commuters in Contra Costa County (over 80%) drive, which is higher than the Bay Area average of 77%. Two-thirds of commuters in the region that drive drive alone, while only 10% of all commuters use transit. Congestion on the region’s urban core freeways has increased slightly since 2004, with Alameda County having the highest share of miles driven in congested condition. In Contra Costa County, there has been a greater increase in congestion than in the rest of region, from a 2.8 mile share of miles driven in congested conditions in 2004 to 4.6 miles in 2013 (www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov). In addition to being critical to commuters, ground transportation networks link goods to markets, with goods movement-dependent industries in the Bay Area accounting for $490 billion (51%) of total regional output and providing over 1.1 million jobs (32% total regional employment). A total of $104,655 million (or 68%) of Contra Costa’s 2011 output was from goods movement industries, with $82,911 million of this output from petroleum and coal products (MTC Regional Goods Movement Plan update, www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/rgm/). DECEMBER 2015 1 DRAFT Assessment Chapter Contra Costa County Adapting to Rising Tides Project Most goods in the Bay Area are moved by truck, although there are certain types of goods such as automobiles that are most efficiently moved by rail, and others such as liquid products that are most efficiently moved by pipeline. Because different industries rely on different modes of transportation depending on the types of goods they use or produce, different subregions of the Bay Area rely on different transportation modes. Contra Costa County, where four of the five regional refineries are located, relies heavily on marine terminals and pipelines to move petroleum products. Goods movement modes in the Bay Area* Trucks 72% Pipeline (mostly petroleum) 11% Multiple modes 6% Water carry 3% Rail carry 3% *Source: MTC Regional Goods Movement Plan, Task 2c – Infrastructure, Services, and Demographics/Freight Flow Trends (www.mtc.ca.gov/planning/rgm/) ART projects in the Bay Area, including a focused assessment of Alameda County, have demonstrated that flooding of the transportation network - even if temporary - can cause significant impacts on both goods and commuters, and the ability of emergency managers to provide critical response services. The lack of resilience in the transportation system is due, in part, to the lack of alternate routes with adequate capacity to serve all needs. In particular, there are very few options for rerouting goods to/from the region’s seaports, airports, and shoreline industries, many of which rely on both truck and rail cars to move freight. At the same time that many of the region’s roadways could be flooding, the rail system, which is highly sensitive to even small amounts of water, could also be impacted. The rail system functions as a fixed network, and even if a small portion of track is damaged there can be closures of many miles of connected track. The region’s capacity to withstand impacts to rail infrastructure is further hampered by the lack of redundant or alternative rail lines. Relocating or adding new rail track and right-of-ways is costly, and significant time and money are needed for planning, financing and implementing changes to the rail network. If the rail system is disrupted, truck traffic from the region’s seaports would likely increase, having negative and widespread effects on road congestion, air quality, noise and quality of life for those living and working near the ports. DECEMBER 2015 2 DRAFT Assessment Chapter Contra Costa County Adapting to Rising Tides Project Passenger and Commuter Rail Since the late 1800s rail has supported goods and commuter movement locally, regionally, across the state and nationally. In the San Francisco Bay Area goods and commuters both move by rail, on a shared track, along the shorelines of Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Solano Counties. The rail lines that cross the project area are critically important, and support inter- and intra-regionally goods and commuter movement. The Union Pacific Martinez Subdivision between the Port of Oakland and Martinez is the busiest rail segment in Northern California, carrying both goods and commuters. Freight volumes on the Union Pacific Martinez Subdivision are the highest in the region, and overall freight rail demand is anticipated to grow throughout the Subdivision, making it the largest bottleneck on the freight rail system in the Bay Area. Traffic on the Union Pacific Martinez Subdivision Average # of trains/day Average # of Average # of (Capitol Corridor estimates) cars on train cars /day Passenger trains 42 4 to 5 210 Freight trains 25 50 to 120* 2125 * This number was calculated using the following assumptions: 5280 feet=1 mile=90 rail cars; see pg.54 of www.camsys.com/pubs/AAR_Nat_%20Rail_Cap_Study.pdf Goods moved by rail typically consists of high value manufactured products, as well as agricultural and food products transported from the region’s ports to Northern and Southern California and throughout the Country. Goods movement-dependent industries in the Bay Area account for $490 billion (51 percent of total regional output) and provide over 1.1 million jobs (32% percent of total regional employment). Rail provides a vital service in the region, supporting economic growth and connecting commuters to regional jobs. The majority of commuter movement by passenger rail in the project area is provided by the Capitol Corridor Joint Powers Authority (Capitol Corridor), which is a partnership among six transit agencies in eight Bay Area counties, and provides service to over 1.7 million customers on the Capitol Corridor route, which connects Sacramento and San Jose. Other passenger lines that operate on the Union Pacific rail line in the project area include the Amtrak Coast Starlight and Amtrak California Zephyr. Goods and commuter movement rely on a network of fixed, connected railroad assets including the railroad track, signal system, bridges, passenger stations, and maintenance facilities. Ownership and management of railroad assets can be complex since the operators of the commuter and freight trains do not own or manage the rail DECEMBER 2015 3 DRAFT Assessment Chapter Contra Costa County Adapting to Rising Tides Project line or other connected assets. For instance, the Capitol Corridor operates most passenger trains but only Union Pacific can initiate actions to protect the rail line from flooding. KEY ISSUE STATEMENT Given the interconnected nature of rail, and lack of redundancy, a disruption of any segment, either within or beyond the project area, could have significant impacts. Rail lines in the project area are critical to moving agricultural, automotive, chemical, industrial, and other goods from the region’s seaports to local and national markets, and are integral to inter-city passenger rail service. In addition, in many locations the rail line serves as the first line of defense against inland flooding. Collaboration between private rail owners (Union Pacific and Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF)), local agencies that own or manage adjacent lands, and those that rely on rail either for providing service or for flood protection, will be necessary to find and implement appropriate, multi-benefit solutions to address flood risks. EXPOSURE TO CURRENT AND FUTURE FLOODING There are 153.5 miles of rail in the project area, which include rail track, sidings, and minor yards. A total of 14 miles of rail is within the current 100-year floodplain, including where the rail line crosses tidal creeks and channels and the coastal floodplain. A total of 40 miles of rail is exposed to sea level rise, with half of the miles at risk from 4 feet or less. Due to the type of analysis conducted, the miles of rail exposed to existing versus future flooding is reported separately even though they may not be unique and it is likely that these segments overlap.