TAA (Vic) Current and Future Hotel Developments November 2019 Prevailing market conditions 2 Tourism forecasts – Victoria snapshot 4 Sporting and cultural event visitors – Victoria 5 Market conditions 7 Supply and demand 8 New Melbourne supply 9 Travel trends 11 Regulation 12 Key International Visitor Trends 14 Domestic tourism in Australia 16 Demand drivers 19 Major stakeholders 20 Regional Victoria 22 Development Summary Melbourne (including inner suburbs, city and surrounds) o New hotel openings 24 o Under Construction 25 o Approved 26 o Proposed 29 Suburban developments 31 Regional developments 32 Hotel openings over the past 12 years (Melbourne) 34 Tourism Accommodation Australia (Victoria) 1 Market outlook remains broadly positive Prevailing market conditions – Australia In 2017/18, tourism remained one of Australia’s fastest growing industries, where tourism-related GDP grew at 5 per cent (inflation adjusted). Our industry now also contributes more to Australia’s economy than traditionally strong sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, utilities and information and media and communications.1 - Tourism-related spending is expected to increase by 4.6 per cent, from $148.7b in 2018/19 to $155.6b in 2019/20 - A further $7.5b increase to $163.1b is expected in 2020/20212 - Although expected to continue to increase, visitation from China is expected to slow, as trade tensions with the USA continue to bite (Ibid). Emerging markets of India, Malaysia and Indonesia “will contribute 16.7 per cent of growth, over the next two years (Ibid). By 2023/24, India is expected to surpass Japan as a ‘top five’ source market for Australia, while other positions in that group will remain unchanged. (Ibid). These results underpin the performance of Australian hotels as some of “the best performing assets globally, this year”3 - “Daily room rates for Australian hotels averaged $USD137 per night, down slightly on 2018, but still fourth in global rankings, behind the Carribbean ($US235), the Middle East ($US144) and Southern Europe (US$141) (Ibid). - The RevPAR metric for Australian hotels averaged $US101, “with only the Carribbean region performing better at $US160 (Ibid). - Regional Australian hotels also outperformed Asia Pacific neighbours on occupancy rates, average daily rate and revenue per available room (Ibid). 1 Tourism Research Australia: National Tourism Satellite Account 2017-18 2 Tourism Research Australia: Tourism Forecasts 2019 3 AFR: Australian hotels outperform globally, 11 September 2019 Tourism Accommodation Australia (Victoria) 2 From an investment perspective, hotel transaction volumes in the Asia Pacific region are expected to be up circa 15 per cent, year on year (2019 vs. 2018) - The popularity of Japan as an international destination of choice, and related tourism boom “brings positive investor sentiment,” underpinned by events such as the 2019 Rugby World Cup and 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games.4 - Australia remains “sought after” as a hotel investment destination, while Singapore and China “are also on investor’s radars,” given good hotel trading performance (Ibid). - Melbourne is currently ranked fifth, in terms of asset yields achieved for top global markets, behind Amsterdam, Berlin, London and Madrid. Yield level ranges over the past 36 months in Melbourne range from 4.7 to 6.7 per cent (Ibid). From an employment perspective, the tourism industry now employs one in thirteen Australians, as tourism related jobs have grown by 34 per cent in the past 10 years.5 - This result has seen our industry “leapfrog” sectors such as the transport and wholesale industries, reinforcing its economic importance to Australia (Ibid). 4 JLL Hotels and Hospitality Group, Global Focus, July 2019 5 AFR: Tourism now employs one in 13 Australians, 15 August 2019 Tourism Accommodation Australia (Victoria) 3 Tourism Forecasts – Victoria Snapshot Tourism spend for Victoria is expected to grow from $31b in 2018/19 to $49.6b in 2028-29, with an annual growth rate of 4.8 per cent, over the next decade.6 China is predicted to remain Victoria’s largest contributor to international spend growth over the next decade (at 22 per cent of growth), however will “transition to more sustainable levels with significant downward revisions.” - Slowing growth “is driven by slowing economic conditions, trade tensions with the United States, and a moderation of aviation capacity growth” (Ibid). Asia is expected to contribute 45 per cent of tourism growth for Victoria over the next decade, rising from $6.3b currently to $14.5b by 2028- 29. - Rising economic prosperity and a rising middle class in the region are driving these increases, with key emerging markets mirroring those of Australia nationally, in India, Indonesia and Malaysia (Ibid). Traditional Western source markets including the United States of America, the United Kingdom and New Zealand are also expected to grow, the UK and NZ more modestly than USA, given the improvement in the US economy and the strength of the US dollar, relative to Australia’s (Ibid). The weaker dollar will make Australia more competitive, in comparison to other overseas destinations and “will contribute to moderate growth in domestic tourism and subdued growth in outbound travel (Ibid). 6 Tourism Research Australia: Tourism Forecast 2019 Tourism Accommodation Australia (Victoria) 4 - Domestic overnight tourism spend growth is “expected to be modest in the short term (+3.4 per cent, per annum to 2028-29),” given limited discretionary spend growth (Ibid). Sporting and cultural event visitors to Victoria (Y.E. December 2018 – figures released in August 2019)7 “While international overnight visitors to Victoria accounted for only four per cent of all visitors to/within Victoria” (YE: December 2018), they accounted for 13 per cent of total event visitors, comprising 23 per cent of all cultural event/festival visitors and 8 per cent of all sporting visitors” (Ibid). “Domestic overnight visitors were also over represented at events, accounting for 40 per cent of total event visitors, compared with 31 per cent of all visitors to Victoria” (Ibid). 7 Victorian State Government: Event Visitors to Victoria Summary, August 2019 Tourism Accommodation Australia (Victoria) 5 “Domestic daytrip visitors were underrepresented at events (particularly cultural events and festivals), accounting for only 38 per cent of all cultural event/festival visitors, compared with comprising 65 per cent of all visitors to/within Victoria.” Visitors to Melbourne and Regional Victoria Source: Victorian Government: Event Visitors to Victoria, Y.E. December 2018 (released August 2019) “Almost three quarters of all international overnight event visitors to Melbourne were cultural and event visitors, while domestic overnight and daytrip event visitors to Melbourne were predominantly sporting event attendees”8 “International event visitors to Victoria were more likely to attend a cultural event (69 per cent), than a sporting event (45 per cent), as were domestic overnight event visitors to regional Victoria (54 per cent, compared with 49 per cent). Domestic day trip event visitors primarily travelled to regional Victoria for sporting events (Ibid). Eighty four per cent of international event visitor nights in Melbourne were had by visitors who had attended a cultural event, during their trip, “while 8 Victorian Government: Event Visitors to Victoria, Y.E. December 2018 (released August 2019) Tourism Accommodation Australia (Victoria) 6 73 per cent of domestic event visitor nights were had by sporting event attendees” (Ibid). “Seventy one per cent of international event visitor nights and sixty per cent of domestic event visitor nights in regional Victoria were accounted for by visitors who attended a cultural event, on their trip” (Ibid). Market conditions Profit margins at Australian restaurants “have plummeted as much as five fold (circa 10 per cent prior to Uber Eats, Deliveroo and Menu log) to between two and four per cent now.”9 Australian Bureau of Statistics figures now reveal that “businesses in the hospitality industry fail faster than any other they track (Ibid).” - “Of food service and accommodation businesses that were in existence in June 2014, only 53.8 per cent were still in business in 2018” (Ibid). The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) recently found that conditions in Uber Eats contracts that forced “restaurants to wear the cost of meal orders that went awry, even when Uber Eats were to blame” were “unfair, not reasonably necessary and caused significant imbalance between restaurants and Uber Eats.” (Ibid). ACCC are also reviewing the proposed merger of “Japanese drinks giant, Asahi and Carlton & United Breweries to let them know if big supermarket chains and hotel groups are capable of keeping an enlarged $16b giant honest, ahead of a planned merger. A provisional decision on the deal is set for 31 October 2019.10 Thomas Cook, “a 140 year old giant of the travel world, operating in 16 countries and employing 22,000 staff across 600 outlets has collapsed, “leaving the travel plans of 600,000 holiday makers in tatters.”11 - “Another global travel icon Tempo Holidays and Bentours has also recently been placed into voluntary administration. (Ibid)” 9 AFR, Why restaurants hate Uber Eats, 23 July 2019 10 AFR: ACCC looks at liquor chain clout in Asahi-CUB deal, 26 August 2019 11 AccomNews: Australian travel operator collapses within days of Thomas Cook, September 2019 Tourism Accommodation Australia