Space Security in the 21st Century Roles, Responsibilities and Opportunities for Australia Brett Biddington A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Faculty of Science School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences May 2019 Surname/Family Name : Brett Given Name/s : Biddington Abbreviation for degree as give in the University calendar : PhD Faculty : Science School : Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences Space security in the 21st century: roles, Thesis Title : responsibilities and opportunities for Australia This thesis tests the hypothesis that Australia is obligated, in practical and moral terms, to invest in the security of the orbital space environment. Since the late 1940s, Australia’s involvement in activities in the orbital space environment has been framed largely by national security considerations. Space activities are the heart of Australia’s alliance with the United States and have provided Australia insights into global space activities not available to other small and middle powers. An economic development narrative, which has been poorly articulated over many years, also exists. Persistent calls by industry advocates and enthusiasts for a succession of Australian Governments to invest in a civil and commercial space industry have largely been ignored. The Australian Space Agency was established in 2018 with an economic rationale based on figures that are weak and ill-defined. The agency has been established, ostensibly, to encourage private investment in a domestic space industry that may come to represent about 1% of the global space industry. A domestic space industry is not essential to the dominant security narrative, but is dependent on assured and secure access to services and data that satellites provide. Orbital space is a profoundly dual-use environment in which military and non-military payloads share orbits and technologies. Commercial interests, with proposals to launch very large constellations into Low Earth Orbit, are challenging the paradigm that space activity is the almost exclusive preserve of nation states. To ensure ready access to orbital space in the future, the international community - including Australia - must deal with a range of threats including that of space debris in the Low Earth Orbits (LEO). The Space Agency could become Australia’s lead organisation for space security matters, helping to protect economies, national and global, that are increasingly reliant on secure and assured access to the services provided by satellites. The thesis focusses on the period from November 2007 to the end of March 2019. The evidence from this period appears to support the hypothesis that Australia is obligated to invest in the security of the orbital space environment. Declaration relating to disposition of project thesis/dissertation I hereby grant to the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or in part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all property rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstracts International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). …………………………………………………………… ……………………………………..……………… ……….……………………...…….… Signature Witness Signature Date The University recognises that there may be exceptional circumstances requiring restrictions on copying or conditions on use. Requests for restriction for a period of up to 2 years must be made in writing. Requests for a longer period of restriction may be considered in exceptional circumstances and require the approval of the Dean of Graduate Research. FOR OFFICE USE ONLY Date of completion of requirements for Award: ii iii ORIGINALITY STATEMENT ‘I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others, with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.’ Signed ................................................................. Date ................................................................. iv v vi vii viii ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This thesis was written with the support of many people. Foremost are my supervisors, Dr Carol Oliver and Professor Martin Van Kranendonk. Both gave wise counsel and direction and helped me to negotiate those inevitable forks in the road that occur in all research projects where the directions and outcomes are not known when the journey begins. Dr Oliver has been a tower of strength and support and I record here my special thanks. Almost a decade ago, Professor Malcolm Walter encouraged me to start the PhD journey and he helped me to stay the course. When I decided to write this thesis, as a deliberate commitment strategy, I told friends and colleagues, whom I admire and respect, what I was doing. Their polite enquiries about progress have served as a reminder to me of my commitment to them to deliver a thesis that might serve as one brick in a solid foundation for future space development in Australia. In particular, I want to acknowledge the support of Professor Craig Valli from Edith Cowan University, and Professors John Storey and Chris Rizos, both from the University of New South Wales. Doctors Ade Abiodun, Roy Sach, Alice Gorman, Lloyd Wood, Daniel Floreani and Phil Crosby, and Messrs David Ball, Michael Pakakis and Anthony Wicht have also provided their push. My family deserves special acknowledgement. I have received unfailing support and encouragement from my wife, Gwen. Our children and their families have also been generous in their encouragement as this project has progressed. To all of you, I say, “Thank you”. x xi Table of Contents Page Abstract ii Originality Statement iv Copyright and Authenticity Statements vi Inclusion of Publication Statement viii Acknowledgement x Table of Contents xii Abbreviations xviii List of Figures xxiv List of Tables xxvi Selected publications, articles and presentations that drew on this research xxviii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 The Hypothesis 1 1.2 Research questions 1 1.3 The Australian space story: divergent narratives 2 1.3.1 The national security narrative 2 1.3.2 The economic narrative 3 1.4 In space and on the ground 4 1.5 Changing times 5 1.6 Dual use technologies: a problem and a way to an answer? 5 1.7 A definition and assumptions 6 1.7.1 Definitions 6 Orbital Space The International Rules-Based Order 1.7.2 Assumptions 7 1.8 Thesis outline 10 1.9 Sources 11 1.9.1 Literature 11 1.9.2 Personal records and notes from interviews and meetings 12 Chapter 2. The importance of a safe and secure space environment 13 2.1 What needs to be kept protected: orbits, satellites, spectrum and politics 13 2.1.1 Orbital space 13 2.1.2 Satellites 15 2.1.3 Spectrum 16 2.1.4 Politics (the regulatory regime) 18 2.2 What are the threats? 20 2.2.1 Space weather 20 2.2.2 Australian responses to the threat of space weather 20 2.2.3 Space Debris 22 Proliferation of space debris Collisions and implications for space security Near earth objects (NEO) 2.2.4 Australia’s response to the threat of space debris 28 xii 2.2.5 Space weaponisation 31 2.2.6 Australia’s response to the threat of space weaponisation 34 2.2.7 Dual use technologies 34 2.2.8 Australia and dual use technologies 36 2.3 Why does a safe and secure orbital environment matter? 37 2.3.1 The space economy 38 OECD Reports Measuring the space economy: challenges with data and definitions Upstream and downstream activities 2.3.2 Treaty monitoring and verification 45 2.3.3 Monitoring the space and Earth environment 46 The space environment Observing Earth 2.4 Dual use technologies 47 2.5 Industry transformation: Space 2.0 48 2.5.1 Mega constellations 50 2.5.2 Cubesats and nanosats 51 2.6 Chapter summary 53 Chapter 3. Middle powers as space actors in an era of geostrategic change 55 3.1 The middle power concept 55 3.1.1 What middle powers are not 57 3.1.2 What middle powers are 58 3.1.3 MIKTA 59 3.1.4 Australia and Canada 63 3.2 The influence of middle powers 65 3.2.1 Middle power status in general 66 3.2.2 Does concerted action work? 67 3.3 Middle power levers and space 68 3.3.1 Spacepower and the global commons 68 3.3.2 Space treaties, regulations and norms 70 3.3.3 Stalled initiatives 72 3.3.4 Other agreements, ‘soft law’ and norms 74 3.4 Australia’s contribution to space security as a middle power 78 3.5 Chapter summary 82 Chapter 4. Drivers or determinants of Australia’s approach to space 85 4.1 Driver 1: Physical factors 85 4.1.1 Location 86 Equidistant from North America and Europe Proximity to Asia Launch sites Astronomy: access to southern skies 4.1.2 Electromagnetic spectrum 95 4.2 Driver 2: Liberal democratic form of government 97 xiii 4.3 Driver 3: Traditional ties and the US alliance 99 4.3.1 The organisational lens 100 4.3.2 The programmatic lens 101 Woomera and its legacy The Joint Facilities: “Full knowledge and concurrence” North West Cape Pine Gap Nurrungar Space situational awareness 4.3.3 The political lens 107 4.3.4 Modern times 112 4.4 Driver 4: Good international citizen 113 4.4.1 The limits of influence in world affairs: harbingers 113 4.4.2 Creating the United Nations 113 4.5 Driver 5: Opportunity costs 116 4.6 Chapter summary 119 Chapter 5.