Tuesday, September 15, 2015 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research China Railway Signal & Yiding JIAO +86 755 82908475 Communication Corp (3969 HK) [email protected] Global leader of railway communication & control system solutions ■ CRSC (or the “company”) is the world’s top rail transportation Initiation control system solution provider and the only industry chain-wide solution provider in the world that can offer design and integration, equipment manufacturing and system implementation services ■ Apart from its rail transportation business, CRSC will utilize IPO BUY and its own funds to actively participate in PPP projects; we expect 2015-17E revenue to grow 43%, 38% and 29.8% YoY Price HK$6.13 ■ Considering 2016E sector average P/E of 14.52x, we arrived at 12-month Target Price HK$7.15 (+17%) our TP of HK$7.15, corresponding to 2015-17E P/E of 20.0x, 15.2x (Potential upside) and 11.4x, or 2015-17E P/B of 2.14x, 1.92x and 1.69x, respectively The company’s three key competitive advantages to last long Price Performance 1) CRSC is the natural monopoly in high-speed rail control system (%) 5 3969 HSI Index market. 2) It possesses national-grade R&D capabilities and extensive experience. 3) Customers prefer working with trusted and fixed suppliers 0 for safety and compatibilities of control system. -5 Huge room for future business growth -10 1) High-speed rail and urban transit control system market size was RMB25 bn in 2014 and 13.3% CAGR is expected for 2014-20E. 2) -15 Modern tram is springing up, with a control system market size of -20 RMB5.9 bn in 2020E. CRSC is likely to replicate its successful Aug/15 experience in other rail transportation products. 3) Its ample cash, Source: Bigdata minimum debt ratio and engineering experience should help in % 1m 6m 12m developing the PPP market. 4) Major OBOR beneficiary. 3969 HK (2.9) N/A N/A Forecasts and valuation HSI (10.1) (9.5) (12.3) CRSC‟s 1H net profit grew 40% YoY, and we estimate 2015-17E EPS will be RMB0.31/0.40/0.54, up 5%/32%/33% YoY. The lower growth for 2015 Machinery & Equipment was due to IPO dilution and RMB400 mn one-off gain in 2014. Its current Hang Seng Index 21562 2016E P/E (12.30x) is lower than sector average (14.52x), and its ROA HSCEI 9729 (5.1%) is also below sector average (8.4%), but this will improve as it Key Data undertakes PPP projects. While CSRC is newly listed and thus lacks a 52-week range (HK$) 5.67-6.67 track record in the capital market, we expect its 2015-17E profit CAGR to Market cap (HK$ mn) 12069 reach 33.6%, better than sector average of 20.3%. We arrived at TP of Avg. daily volume (mn) 16.47 HK$7.15 in consideration of sector average P/E. Initiate with BUY. BVPS (HK$) 1.98 Financials Shareholding Structure No. of shares outstanding (mn) 8,235 RMB mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Revenue 13,065 17,329 24,792 34,173 44,368 Growth (%) N.A. 32.6% 43.1% 37.8% 29.8% Net profit 1,260 2,033 2,379 3,171 4,251 Growth (%) N.A. 61.3% 17.0% 33.3% 34.0% EPS (RMB) 0.19 0.29 0.31 0.40 0.54 DPS (RMB) 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.06 0.08 P/E (x) 26.15 17.14 16.26 12.30 9.26 P/B (x) 3.48 2.79 1.74 1.56 1.37 ROE (%) 12.6% 17.4% 8.2% 8.7% 9.2% Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. China Merchants Securities (CMS) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CMS research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CMS research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1 Tuesday, September 15, 2015 Investment thesis The company’s monopolistic advantages to maintain in the long term The company has practically monopolized China‟s railway control system market for long term as the railway sector is a closed market and the status quo is expected to last because: 1) the company‟s research capabilities regarding hardware, laboratories and technicians have piled up to the national level; 2) it is a primary industry standard maker who can always stay ahead of others in new product development; 3) as railway control system is an applied science, technologies are consummated by practical experience, an area in which the company romps ahead in the world; 4) customers prefer familiar providers for safety and compatibilities of control system; 5) the company forms a closed circle in the industry chain with its capabilities in design and integration, equipment manufacturing and system implementation and is able to streamline operations to save costs, making it hard for others to compete with. Advantages in traditional business to remain and expand The company boasts over 80% market share in the core of high-speed railway control system and has exclusive access to the core technologies of CTCS3, the sole high- speed railway standard in China. We expect 15.5% CAGR in 2014-20E in China‟s new- build high-speed railway control system market and the same growth for such operation of the company. The company participates in the “4-Es” integration tendering and is good at communication and signal but does not involve in power supply and electrification. As these two segments have lower technological requirements and the company holds one of the three “4-Es” integration tendering licenses, it has the means and measures to tap into the markets. The market size of these two sectors amounted to RMB21.3 bn in 2014 and is expected to expand at 15.5% CAGR in 2014-20E. There is huge room for the company to develop. Development of modern tram business The modern tram market is springing up. Tram becomes increasingly popular among city planners for its low building costs, short setup period, large capacity and use of clean energy. Fast growth is also permitted by the short approval process compared to metro. According to rail-transit.com and Frost & Sullivan, modern tram mileage in China and related control system market size will reach 3,000 km and RMB5.9 bn in 2020E respectively, representing a CAGR of 64% for 2014-2020E. As the forerunner of railway and urban transit control system, the company is expected to scoop up not less than 40% market share. Capital and experience to help PPP business to gain momentum The company had sufficient cash and only RMB318 mn of debt as at end-2014. It plans to raise RMB2.5 bn through debt financing in 2015. Compared to other transportation infrastructure enterprises with over 10% of net debt ratio, the company‟s liquidity is well- maintained and there is huge room for leverage operation. Control system of rail transportation accounts for about 6% of its total fixed asset investment (FAI). The company may tap into all infrastructure segments of rail transportation through the PPP model. Compared to other infrastructure companies, CRSC has sufficient capital; compared to other equipment manufacturers with sufficient capital, CRSC is equipped with system implementation capabilities and experience. We expect its urban transit PPP business to grow rapidly on the back of its own advantages. Expansion to overseas markets “One Belt, One Road” and “Made in China 2025” polices stimulate the oversea expansion of Chinese enterprises. We always believe that high-speed railway, as the representative of Made in China, will be the primary beneficiary of the two policies. CRSC is indispensable for exporting high-speed railway technologies as it possesses the core technologies. Apart from this, its CTCS3 technologies, developed based on Europe‟s ETCS, can integrate with overseas technologies seamlessly, allowing the company to expand into overseas markets quickly through acquisition. To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 2 Tuesday, September 15, 2015 Focus charts Figure 1: Highly competitive 3-in-1 business model Figure 2: Huge potential in new business segments Core business Competitiveness Upgrade & Tram maintenance Design & Medium integration Equipment Medium Other new Overseas manufacturing to high business markets System High implementation PPP Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Figure 3: Segment revenue and growth forecasts Figure 4: Segment and overall gross margin forecasts 40% 50,000 RMB mn 35% 45,000 40,000 30% 35,000 25% 30,000 20% 25,000 15% 20,000 10% 15,000 10,000 5% 5,000 0% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Design设计集成 & integration Equip.设备制造 manufacturing Sys.系统交付 implem . Other其他业务 business PPP 城轨业务Urban transit Railway铁路业务 PPP PPPPEP Overall总体 Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Figure 5: Expanding railway and urban transit control Figure 6: CRSC as world‟s top rail transportation control system new construction markets system provider in 2014 in terms of revenue 45.0 RMB CAGR of railway new construction 39.8 RMB bn bn 40.0 market size in 2014-20E: 14.2% 35.8 18 16 35.0 32.4 16 29.4 30.0 14 26.2 25.2 22.9 23 12 25.0 20.7 10 10 18.7 20.0 17.9 16.8 10 8 14.3 8 15.0 11.1 6 6 10.0 CAGR of urban transit new construction 4 5.0 market size in 2014-20E: 14.6% 2 0.0 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 0 CRSC Ansaldo Bombardier Siemens Alstom Railway Urban transit Source: Company data, CMS (HK) Source: Company data, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Tuesday, September 15, 2015 Contents Company highlights ......................................................................................................................................................