THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE 2oO5 STATE OF THE WORLD REDEFINING GLOBAL SECURITY with a Foreword by Mikhail Gorbachev Erik Assadourian Lori Brown Alexander Carius Richard Cincotta Ken Conca Geoffrey Dabelko Christopher Flavin Hilary French Gary Gardner Brian Halweil Annika Kramer Lisa Mastny Danielle Nierenberg Dennis Pirages Thomas Prugh Michael Renner Janet Sawin Linda Starke Aaron Wolf STATE OF THE WORLD 20o5 Other Norton/Worldwatch Books State of the World 1984 through 2004 (an annual report on progress toward a sustainable society) Vital Signs 1992 through 2003 (a report on the trends that are shaping our future) Saving the Planet Power Surge Life Out of Bounds Lester R. Brown Christopher Flavin Chris Bright Christopher Flavin Nicholas Lenssen Sandra Postel Beyond Malthus Who Will Feed China? Lester R. Brown How Much Is Enough? Lester R. Brown Gary Gardner Alan Thein Durning Brian Halweil Tough Choices Last Oasis Lester R. Brown Pillar of Sand Sandra Postel Sandra Postel Fighting for Survival Vanishing Borders Full House Michael Renner Hilary French Lester R. Brown Hal Kane The Natural Wealth of Nations Eat Here David Malin Roodman Brian Halweil STATE OF THE WORLD20o5 A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society Michael Renner, Hilary French, and Erik Assadourian Project Directors Lori Brown Alexander Carius Richard Cincotta Ken Conca Geoffrey Dabelko Christopher Flavin Gary Gardner Brian Halweil Annika Kramer Lisa Mastny Danielle Nierenberg Dennis Pirages Thomas Prugh Janet Sawin Aaron Wolf Linda Starke, Editor W . W . N O R TON & COMPANY NEW YORK LONDON Copyright © 2005 by Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20036 www.worldwatch.org All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. The STATE OF THE WORLD and WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE trademarks are registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Worldwatch Institute; of its directors, officers, or staff; or of its funders. The text of this book is composed in Galliard, with the display set in Gill Sans. Book design by Elizabeth Doherty; cover design by Lyle Rosbotham; composition by Worldwatch Institute; manufacturing by Phoenix Color Corp. First Edition ISBN 0-393-06020-9 ISBN 0-393-32666-7 (pbk) W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10110 www.wwnorton.com W.W. Norton & Company Ltd., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 This book is printed on recycled paper. Worldwatch Institute Board of Directors Øystein Dahle Cathy Crain Akio Morishima Chairman UNITED STATES JAPAN NORWAY James Dehlsen Izaak van Melle Thomas Crain UNITED STATES THE NETHERLANDS Vice Chairman and Treasurer Christopher Flavin Wren Wirth UNITED STATES UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Larry Minear Lynne Gallagher Emeritus: Secretary UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Abderrahman Khene Satu Hassi ALGERIA Geeta B. Aiyer FINLAND UNITED STATES Andrew E. Rice John McBride UNITED STATES Adam Albright UNITED STATES UNITED STATES Worldwatch Institute Staff Erik Assadourian Hilary French Danielle Nierenberg Staff Researcher Director, Globalization and Research Associate Governance Project Ed Ayres Tom Prugh Editorial Director Gary Gardner Senior Editor Editor, World Watch Director of Research Mary Redfern Courtney Berner Joseph Gravely Foundations Manager Administrative Assistant Mail & Publications Michael Renner Fulfillment Lori A. Brown Senior Researcher Research Librarian Brian Halweil Lyle Rosbotham Senior Researcher Zoë Chafe Art Director Staff Researcher Mairead Hartmann Janet Sawin Development Associate Steve Conklin Research Associate Webmaster John Holman Molly O’Meara Sheehan Director of Development Barbara Fallin Senior Researcher Director of Finance and Lisa Mastny Patricia Shyne Administration Research Associate Director of Publications Susan Finkelpearl Anne Platt McGinn and Marketing Communications Manager Senior Researcher Christopher Flavin Leanne Mitchell President Director of Communications Acknowledgments Each year a small group of researchers comes of the University of Maryland wrote the together to report on the challenges that face chapter on the connections between health human society and the environment as well and security. Richard Cincotta of Popula- as the progress the world has made in tion Action International worked with Lisa responding to them. While these challenges Mastny on the chapter on population. We are have evolved significantly over the past 22 also pleased to include Security Links from years, one conclusion has been constant nonproliferation experts Joseph Cirincione of throughout all editions of State of the World: the Carnegie Endowment for International we could never write this report without the Peace and Paul Walker of Global Green USA; assistance of countless individuals both inside from Pekka Haavisto of the U.N. Environ- and outside the Institute. Whatever success we ment Programme’s Post-Conflict Assessment have achieved in this undertaking is in large Unit; from Rhoda Margesson of the Con- measure a tribute to the support and insights gressional Research Service; and from Jason of a large number of people, many of whose Switzer of the International Institute for Sus- names do not appear on the cover. These tainable Development. friends of Worldwatch all deserve our sin- In addition, chapters include Boxes con- cere thanks for their contributions to this tributed by Peter Croll of the Bonn Inter- year’s special report on global security. national Center for Conversion; Moira Feil For the 2005 edition of State of the World, of Adelphi Research and Gianluca Rampolla the Institute drew on the talents of a record of the Organization for Security and Co- number of outside authors, including lead- operation in Europe; Chris Huggins and ing experts on human and environmental Herman Musahara of the African Centre for security. Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Director of Technology Studies; Anders Jägerskog of the Environmental Change and Security Pro- the Expert Group on Development Issues at ject at the Woodrow Wilson International the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs; Center for Scholars, and Alexander Carius, Barbara Rose Johnston from the Center for Director of Adelphi Research in Berlin, Ger- Political Ecology in Santa Cruz, California; many, contributed to the chapters on envi- and Manuela Mesa and Mabel González ronmental peacemaking and water Bustelo from the Peace Research Center in cooperation. They were joined by Aaron T. Madrid, Spain. Wolf of Oregon State University, Annika Chapter authors are grateful too for the Kramer of Adelphi Research, and Ken Conca enthusiasm and dedication of the 2004 team of the University of Maryland. Dennis Pirages of staff researchers, fellows, and interns, who vii State of theWorld 2005 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS pursued elusive facts and produced a number Riccio, Hope Shand, Robert Sprinkle, and of graphs and tables. Research fellow Renate Jacob Wanyama. Duckat, on loan from Worldwatch’s German Further refinement of each chapter took counterpart, Germanwatch, graciously jug- place under the careful eye of independent gled endless requests for Chapters 1, 6, 8, and editor Linda Starke. Linda’s energy and long 9; Molly Norton spent her summer digging experience with Worldwatch publications up facts for Chapter 3; Molly Aeck and ensured that we were able to convert our Corinna Kester tenaciously gathered infor- unpolished first drafts to the sculpted chap- mation for Chapter 6; and staff researcher Zoë ters they turned out to be—and within the Chafe, along with her many other responsi- deadlines she set. bilities, tirelessly helped in assembling Chap- After the edits and rewrites were com- ter 9. Chapter 9 also drew on the plete, Art Director Lyle Rosbotham skillfully thought-provoking analysis of Robinne Gray crafted the design of each chapter, the time- and the diligent assistance of interns Kyoko line, and the Security Links. His creative vision Okamoto, Kotoko Ueno, Lauren Kritzer, helped establish several innovations, includ- and Roman Ginzberg. We would also like to ing the photographs that complement each thank Kun Qian for helping us with the early Link. From Dexter, Oregon, Ritch Pope once development of our China program. Join- again assisted in the final production phase by ing Worldwatch throughout the year, all these preparing the index. individuals not only provided indispensable Writing is only the beginning of getting support but kept the Institute energized and State of the World to readers. The task then in good spirits. passes to our committed communications The immense job of tracking down articles, department, which works on multiple fronts journals, and books from around the world fell to ensure that the State of the World message to Research Librarian Lori Brown. In addition, circulates widely beyond our Washington Lori once again assembled a list of significant offices. Communications Manager Susan global events for the Year in Review timeline, Finkelpearl leads this effort—using her drawing on her remarkable knack for gather- boundless enthusiasm to craft our messages ing and organizing information. for the press, public, and decisionmakers Reviews from outside experts, who gra- around the world. This year she was aided by ciously gave us their time, were also indis- Administrative Assistant Heather Wilson, pensable to this year’s final product. For who left the Institute in September to start a their thoughtful comments and