TASK FORCE REPORT: The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems July 2012 This report is a product of the Defense Science Board (DSB). The DSB is a Federal Advisory Committee established to provide independent advice to the Secretary of Defense. Statements, opinions, conclusions, and recommendations in this report do not necessarily represent the official position of the Department of Defense. The DSB Task Force on The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems completed its information gathering in October 2011. This report is UNCLASSIFIED and releasable to the public. OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE 3140 DEFENSE PENTAGON WASHINGTON, DC 20301–3140 DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD 19 July 2012 MEMORANDUM FOR UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR ACQUISITION, TECHNOLOGY, AND LOGISTICS SUBJECT: Final Report of the Defense Science Board (DSB) Task Force on the Role of Autonomy in Department of Defense (DoD) Systems I am pleased to forward the final report of the DSB Task Force on the Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems. The Task Force was asked to study relevant technologies, ongoing research, and the current autonomy-relevant plans of the Military Services, to assist the DoD in identifying new opportunities to more aggressively use autonomy in military missions, to anticipate vulnerabilities, and to make recommendations for overcoming operational difficulties and systemic barriers to realizing the full potential of autonomous systems. The Task Force has concluded that, while currently fielded unmanned systems are making positive contributions across DoD operations, autonomy technology is being underutilized as a result of material obstacles within the Department that are inhibiting the broad acceptance of autonomy and its ability to more fully realize the benefits of unmanned systems. Key among these obstacles identified by the Task Force are poor design, lack of effective coordination of research and development (R&D) efforts across the Military Services, and operational challenges created by the urgent deployment of unmanned systems to theater without adequate resources or time to refine concepts of operations and training. To address the issues that are limiting more extensive use of autonomy in DoD systems, the Task Force recommends a crosscutting approach that includes the following key elements: • The DoD should embrace a three-facet (cognitive echelon, mission timelines and human-machine system trade spaces) autonomous systems framework to assist program managers in shaping technology programs, as well as to assist acquisition officers and developers in making key decisions related to the design and evaluation of future systems. • The Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (ASD(R&E)) should work with the Military Services to establish a coordinated science and technology (S&T) program guided by feedback from operational experience and evolving mission requirements. • The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (USD(AT&L)) should create developmental and operational test and evaluation (T&E) techniques that focus on the unique challenges of autonomy (to include developing operational training techniques that explicitly build trust in autonomous systems). • The Joint Staff and the Military Services should improve the requirements process to develop a mission capability pull for autonomous systems to identify missed opportunities and desirable future system capabilities. Overall, the Task Force found that unmanned systems are making a significant, positive impact on DoD objectives worldwide. However, the true value of these systems is not to provide a direct human replacement, but rather to extend and complement human capability by providing potentially unlimited persistent capabilities, reducing human exposure to life threatening tasks, and with proper design, reducing the high cognitive load currently placed on operators/supervisors. I fully endorse all of the Task Force’s findings and urge you adopt their recommendations. DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Misperceptions about Autonomy are Limiting its Adoption .......................................... 1 1.2. Create an Autonomous Systems Reference Framework to Replace “Levels of Autonomy” ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.3. Technical Challenges Remain, Some Proven Autonomy Capability Underutilized ......... 7 1.4. Autonomous Systems Pose Unique Acquisition Challenges ......................................... 10 1.5. Avoid Capability Surprise by Anticipating Adversary Use of Autonomous Systems ..... 13 2.0 Operational Benefits of Autonomy ......................................................................................... 15 2.1. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ............................................................................................ 15 2.2. Unmanned Ground Systems ......................................................................................... 16 2.3. Unmanned Maritime Vehicles ...................................................................................... 17 2.4. Unmanned Space Systems ............................................................................................ 18 2.5. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 19 3.0 Technical Issues of Autonomy ................................................................................................ 21 3.1. Motivation: What Makes Autonomy Hard .................................................................... 22 3.2. Defining Levels of Autonomy is Not Useful ................................................................... 23 3.3. Autonomous System Reference Framework ................................................................ 24 3.4. Needed Technology Development ................................................................................ 31 3.5. Technical Recommendations ........................................................................................ 54 4.0 Acquisition Issues of Autonomy .............................................................................................. 56 4.1. Requirements and Development .................................................................................. 56 4.2. Test and Evaluation ....................................................................................................... 62 4.3. Transition to Operational Deployment ......................................................................... 65 5.0 Capability Surprise in Autonomy Technology ......................................................................... 68 5.1. Overview of Global Unmanned Systems ....................................................................... 68 5.2. Unmanned Symmetric Adversary Scenarios ................................................................. 71 5.3. Value for Asymmetric Adversaries ................................................................................ 73 5.4. External Vulnerabilities ................................................................................................. 75 5.5. Self-Imposed Vulnerabilities ......................................................................................... 75 5.6. Recommendations ........................................................................................................ 76 DSB TASK FORCE REPORT Table of Contents| v The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Appendix A—Details of Operational Benefits by Domain ............................................................ 78 A.1. Aerial Systems Strategy ................................................................................................. 78 A.2. Maritime Systems .......................................................................................................... 85 A.3. Ground Systems ............................................................................................................ 92 A.4. Space Systems ............................................................................................................... 95 Appendix B—Bibliography ............................................................................................................ 99 Appendix C—Task Force Terms of Reference ............................................................................. 107 Appendix D—Task Force Membership ....................................................................................... 109 Appendix E—Task Force Briefings .............................................................................................. 110 Appendix F—Glossary ................................................................................................................. 111 DSB TASK FORCE REPORT Table of Contents| vi The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE List of Figures Figure 1-1 Framework for the Design and Evaluation of Autonomous Systems ......................................... 5 Figure 1-2 Autonomous System Reference Framework - Scope of Cognitive Functions Across Echelons .. 6 Figure 1-3 Status of Technology Deployment and Remaining Challenges .................................................. 9 Figure 3-1 Framework for the Design