Threat from right-wing extremism continues to increase in UK (JANES) Key Points • The threat of far-right violence in the UK has increased since the 2016 referendum on European Union membership, with a particular rise in the targeting of individuals along political lines. • The UK far right is ideologically and demographically heterogenous, and can be conceptualised as a three-tiered pyramid, with width representing the quantity of support, and height denoting the increasing violence of the actors’ operational activity. • Although British nationalist sentiment remains an important component of far-right thought in the UK, an increasingly internationalist, culturally focused outlook has resulted in a movement with transnational connections, and groups that adhere to this now represent the vanguard of the far right. UK counter-terrorism police have identified the increasingly serious threat posed by adherents of far-right ideologies, but the movement remains diverse, adaptable, and in many cases committed to violence. The Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency team assesses the current state of far-right extremism in the UK. On 3 January 2020, 22-year-old Andrew Dymock appeared at the Old Bailey charged with 12 terrorism offences and three offences of inciting racial hatred, suspected of being a member of two neo-Nazi groups: System Resistance Network (SRM) and Sonnenkrieg Division (SKD). His trial is set for July. The risk of violent far-right activism has demonstrably grown since 2016 and the authorities are responding to the problem with increased gravity. In July 2019, the government announced that right-wing extremism would be included in its assessment for the terrorism threat level, indicating that security services now view this threat as distinct from Islamist or Northern Ireland-related dissident republican militancy. Indeed, the head of the UK’s counter-terrorism policing, Neil Basu, stated in 2019 that the threat is “definitely increasing”, and this upward trend has been noted in particular since the 2017 Islamist terrorist attacks in the UK. The threat posed by far-right groups and individuals can be conceptualised as a three-tiered pyramid, with width representing the quantity of support, and height representing the increasing violence of the actors’ operational activity. Although it is important to note that there is significant overlap and interaction between these tiers, this broadly encapsulates the scope of the threat. FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 1 of 13 This report is for internal use of only and includes content which is copyright of Jane’s Group (www.janes.com) and is reproduced herein with Jane’s permission. Please note that Jane’s material might have been amended or changed herein and Jane’s has not been directly involved in the creation of this report and has not reviewed its content which might include comments, opinions, analysis and other additions. accepts full and sole responsibility for this report and will indemnify and hold Jane’s harmless in respect of any loss suffered by or claim against Jane’s in relation to this report. Jane’s makes no representation or warranty as to the content and disclaims any liability for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on this report. This report is not to be construed as legal, financial or other advice and has been created for internal information purposes only. 1762724 Pyramid of far-right activism. (©2020 Jane’s/Getty Images) Tier 1 The first tier of the pyramid represents a broad base of individuals supportive of far-right ideas, predominantly centred on immigration and societal engagement with religious and ethnic minorities. This demographic includes organised groups that conduct rallies and marches to raise awareness for their causes, often by co-opting more mainstream issues. Crucially, although these groups are not committed to violence, FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 13 This report is for internal use of only and includes content which is copyright of Jane’s Group (www.janes.com) and is reproduced herein with Jane’s permission. Please note that Jane’s material might have been amended or changed herein and Jane’s has not been directly involved in the creation of this report and has not reviewed its content which might include comments, opinions, analysis and other additions. accepts full and sole responsibility for this report and will indemnify and hold Jane’s harmless in respect of any loss suffered by or claim against Jane’s in relation to this report. Jane’s makes no representation or warranty as to the content and disclaims any liability for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on this report. This report is not to be construed as legal, financial or other advice and has been created for internal information purposes only. there have been incidents in which individuals associated with them have participated in far-right violence in the past or been found to have had links to more extreme groups further up the pyramid. The dominant ideological component within the Tier 1 milieu is British nationalism. Groups such as Britain First and the English Defence League (EDL) are well known in this ideological strand of the far right, although they are past their popular peak, as the complexion of the extreme right in the UK has changed since 2016. Although a core British nationalism still underpins the worldview of many groups, those that make this their defining feature have struggled to gain or retain prominence in comparison to those that have embraced more transnational ideas, which leads to the other strong ideological focus of groups in this tier: European cultural nationalism. Groups such as the Identitarian Movement (the rebranded Generation Identity UK) espouse an ideology predicated on the defence of a more holistic European identity against the encroachment of non-European peoples, and deliberately couch this in terms of culture, which is more palatable in mainstream discourse than race. The Guardian on 24 August 2019 quoted a member of Generation Identity, who wrote online: “Pushing cultural differences is a more subtle way of implying that there’s very real differences between the people who were originally here and the people who are coming here.” The anti-racist group Hope not hate revealed that identitarian groups of this kind are present in at least 23 countries, demonstrating the reach and broad interconnectedness of the movement. FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 13 This report is for internal use of only and includes content which is copyright of Jane’s Group (www.janes.com) and is reproduced herein with Jane’s permission. Please note that Jane’s material might have been amended or changed herein and Jane’s has not been directly involved in the creation of this report and has not reviewed its content which might include comments, opinions, analysis and other additions. accepts full and sole responsibility for this report and will indemnify and hold Jane’s harmless in respect of any loss suffered by or claim against Jane’s in relation to this report. Jane’s makes no representation or warranty as to the content and disclaims any liability for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on this report. This report is not to be construed as legal, financial or other advice and has been created for internal information purposes only. 1761778 People protest outside the Central Criminal Court, known as the Old Bailey, in London after far-right activist and former leader and founder of the English Defence League (EDL), Tommy Robinson – real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – was sentenced to nine months in prison for contempt of court on 11 July 2019. (Luke Dray/Getty Images) A major driver in the rise in nativist sentiment in Europe has been the migration crisis propelled by conflict and unrest in non-European, largely Muslim-majority countries. Anti-immigration sentiment has become a central pillar of right-wing groups’ ideologies, and has gained significant mainstream political traction. This crisis has driven the “Great Replacement” narrative – a theory popularised by French author Renaud Camus, concerning the dilution and eventual replacement, or ‘genocide by substitution’, of white Europeans with immigrants from other ethnic and cultural backgrounds. This alarmist rhetoric lies at the core of many ultra- nationalist or cultural nationalist ideologies throughout the three tiers, at times motivating violence. FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 4 of 13 This report is for internal use of only and includes content which is copyright of Jane’s Group (www.janes.com) and is reproduced herein with Jane’s permission. Please note that Jane’s material might have been amended or changed herein and Jane’s has not been directly involved in the creation of this report and has not reviewed its content which might include comments, opinions, analysis and other additions. accepts full and sole responsibility for this report and will indemnify and hold Jane’s harmless in respect of any loss suffered by or claim against Jane’s in relation to this report. Jane’s makes no representation or warranty as to the content and disclaims any liability for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on this report. This report is not to be construed as legal, financial or other advice and has been created for internal information purposes only. Brexit An increasingly important aspect of the ideology of groups operating at tier 1 level in the UK is anti- establishment sentiment. A narrative of betrayal by the political establishment is espoused, and has gained significant traction in the febrile political atmosphere since the 2016 referendum on EU membership. Marches railing against ‘Brexit betrayal’ have been conducted in London, and the issue of Brexit has been effectively used by far-right groups to provide a disguise and an outlet for a number of their views, including anti-immigrant, anti-Islamic, anti-left, anti-minority, and anti-establishment feeling.