On groundbreaking innovations in weapons technology and the long wave DISSERTATION of the University of St. Gallen, School of Management, Economics, Law, Social Sciences and International Affairs to obtain the title of Doctor of Philosophy in Management submitted by Johannes Gerhard from Germany Approved on the application of Prof. Dr. Rainer Metz and Prof. Dr. Martin Hilb Dissertation no. 4769 Joh. Wagner & Söhne, Frankfurt, 2019 The University of St. Gallen, School of Management, Economics, Law, Social Sciences and International Affairs hereby consents to the printing of the present dissertation, without hereby expressing any opinion on the views herein expressed. St. Gallen, May, 22, 2018 The President: Prof. Dr. Thomas Bieger Dedicated to Nikolai Kondratieff I thank Professor Metz as well as Professor Hilb for their support and patience. Table of contents Table of contents I Table of figures VIII List of tables IX Table of abbreviations X Abstract XI Zusammenfassung XIII 1. Introductory part 1 1.1. Meaning for research and practice 3 1.1.1. Meaning for research 3 1.1.2. Meaning for practice 4 1.2. Objective 5 1.3. Procedure 5 2. General theoretical part 7 2.1. Theories related to the topic of this dissertation 9 2.1.1. Time frame of this dissertation and countries under analysis 9 2.1.2. The Kondratieff cycle 10 2.1.2.1. Predecessors and the meaning of Nikolai Kondratieff 10 2.1.2.2. The work of Nikolai Kondratieff 11 2.1.2.3. Critique regarding Kondratieff‟s work 11 2.1.2.4. Long waves in rolling returns of the S&P 500 from 1789 to 2017 13 2.1.3. Major wars 16 2.1.3.1. Levy‟s set of “great power wars” 16 2.1.3.2. Wars of the “great powers” USA and Great Britain 17 2.1.4. Technological development according to Nefiodow & Nefiodow 19 2.1.5. Groundbreaking innovations in weapons technology 20 2.1.5.1. Critique concerning Mensch‟s work 21 2.1.5.2. Support for Mensch‟s findings 22 I 2.1.5.3. Set of groundbreaking innovations in weapons technology 22 2.1.5.4. Full-scale application of the groundbreaking innovations in weapons technology 24 2.2. On state, economy, and war 25 2.2.1. Economic reflections of major wars 25 2.2.1.1. The influence of war on prices 26 2.2.1.2. The influence of war on prices in a closed economy 27 2.2.1.3. The Influence of the quantity of money 28 2.2.1.4. The influence of war on prices in an open economy 28 2.2.1.5. The influence of war on the production of commodities 28 2.2.2. State interventions 29 2.2.2.1. Financing war 29 2.2.2.2. Price controls and rationing 30 2.2.2.3. Wage controls and changes regarding labor 31 2.2.2.4. Commodities of strategic importance 32 2.2.2.5. Totalization of war and the rise of R&D 32 2.2.3. General innovations, military innovations, and their cohesion 33 2.2.4. The influence of war on military technology 35 2.2.5. The reciprocity between war and general innovations 35 2.3. Literature related to the Kondratieff cycle 36 2.3.1. Literature related to the Kondratieff cycle and war 36 2.3.1.1. Frank G. Dickinson 37 2.3.1.2. E. M. Bernstein 38 2.3.1.3. Siegfried von Ciriacy-Wantrup 39 2.3.1.3.1. Agricultural crises 39 2.3.1.3.2. The long wave 40 2.3.1.3.3. The cyclic occurrence of wars 41 2.3.1.4. Albert Rose 41 2.3.2. Literature related to the Kondratieff cycle and technology 42 2.3.2.1. Nikolai Kondratieff 42 2.3.2.2. Joseph Schumpeter 42 II 2.3.2.3. Gerhard Mensch 43 2.3.2.4. Carlota Perez 44 2.4. Literature related to peace research 45 2.4.1. Raimo Väyrynen 45 2.4.2. Mary Kaldor 46 2.5. Literature related to the military 46 2.5.1. Classics of military literature 46 2.5.2. Military authors focusing on technology 47 2.6. Conclusion from the general theoretical part: a theory of the emer- gence of groundbreaking innovations in weapons technology 47 3. Specific empirical part 51 3.1. Empirical research questions and empirical research method 52 3.1.1. Research method of research question 1 52 3.1.2. Research method of research question 2 53 3.2. Target group of this dissertation 53 3.3. Limitations 54 3.3.1. Changes in the system 54 3.3.2. Change in the lethality and complexity of weapons 54 3.3.3. Meaning of strategy and tactics 55 3.4. Empirical results 55 3.4.1. Research question 1 55 3.4.1.1. Percussion cap 56 3.4.1.1.1. Development of the percussion cap 56 3.4.1.1.2. Full-scale application of the percussion cap 57 3.4.1.1.3. Conclusion regarding the percussion cap 59 3.4.1.2. Railway 59 3.4.1.2.1. Development of the railway 59 3.4.1.2.2. Full-scale application of the railway 60 3.4.1.2.3. Conclusion regarding the railway 62 3.4.1.3. Breech-loading rifle 62 3.4.1.3.1. Development of the rifle 62 3.4.1.3.2. Full-scale application of the rifle 63 3.4.1.3.3. Development of the breech-loading rifle 63 III 3.4.1.3.4. Full-scale application of the breech-loading rifle 65 3.4.1.3.5. Conclusion regarding the breech-loading rifle 66 3.4.1.4. Telegraph 66 3.4.1.4.1. Development of the telegraph 66 3.4.1.4.2. Full-scale application of the telegraph 67 3.4.1.4.3. Conclusion regarding the telegraph 69 3.4.1.5. Breech-loading, rifled artillery 69 3.4.1.5.1. Development of breech-loading, rifled artillery 70 3.4.1.5.2. Full-scale application of breech-loading, rifled artillery 71 3.4.1.5.3. Conclusion regarding breech-loading, rifled artillery 72 3.4.1.6. Cylindro-conoidal bullet 72 3.4.1.6.1. Development of the cylindro-conoidal bullet 73 3.4.1.6.2. Full-scale application of the cylindro-conoidal bullet 75 3.4.1.6.3. Conclusion regarding the cylindro-conoidal bullet 75 3.4.1.7. Ironclad, screw-driven steamer 76 3.4.1.7.1. Development of the ironclad, screw-driven steamer 76 3.4.1.7.2. Full-scale application of the ironclad, screw-driven steamer 77 3.4.1.7.3. Conclusion regarding the ironclad, screw-driven steamer 78 3.4.1.8. Cartridge case 78 3.4.1.8.1. Development of the cartridge case 78 3.4.1.8.2. Full-scale application of the cartridge case 80 3.4.1.8.3. Conclusion regarding the cartridge case 81 3.4.1.9. Torpedo 81 3.4.1.9.1. Development of the torpedo 81 3.4.1.9.2. Full-scale application of the torpedo 83 IV 3.4.1.9.3. Conclusion regarding the torpedo 83 3.4.1.10. Smokeless powder 83 3.4.1.10.1. Development of smokeless powder 84 3.4.1.10.2. Full-scale application of smokeless powder 85 3.4.1.10.3. Conclusion regarding smokeless powder 86 3.4.1.11. Machine gun 86 3.4.1.11.1. Development of the machine gun 86 3.4.1.11.2. Full-scale application of the machine gun 88 3.4.1.11.3. Conclusion regarding the machine gun 90 3.4.1.12. Automobile 90 3.4.1.12.1. Development of the automobile 90 3.4.1.12.2. Full-scale application of the automobile 91 3.4.1.12.3. Conclusion regarding the automobile 93 3.4.1.13. Magazine 94 3.4.1.13.1. Development of the magazine 94 3.4.1.13.2. Full-scale application of the magazine 95 3.4.1.13.3. Conclusion regarding the magazine 96 3.4.1.14. Quick-firing artillery 97 3.4.1.14.1. Development of quick-firing artillery 97 3.4.1.14.2. Full-scale application of quick-firing artillery 98 3.4.1.14.3. Conclusion regarding quick-firing artillery 98 3.4.1.15. Submarine 99 3.4.1.15.1. Development of the submarine 99 3.4.1.15.2. Full-scale application of the submarine 100 3.4.1.15.3. Conclusion regarding the submarine 101 3.4.1.16. Wireless communication 101 3.4.1.16.1. Development of wireless communication 102 3.4.1.16.2. Full-scale application of wireless communication 103 3.4.1.16.3. Conclusion regarding wireless communication 105 3.4.1.17. Airplane 105 V 3.4.1.17.1. Development of the airplane 106 3.4.1.17.2. Full-scale application of the airplane 108 3.4.1.17.3. Conclusion regarding the airplane 110 3.4.1.18. Gas 110 3.4.1.18.1. Development of gas 110 3.4.1.18.2. Full-scale application of gas 112 3.4.1.18.3. Conclusion regarding gas 112 3.4.1.19. Tank 112 3.4.1.19.1. Development of the tank 113 3.4.1.19.2.