Electricity Generation Baseline Report Jeffrey Logan, Cara Marcy, James McCall, Francisco Flores-Espino, Aaron Bloom, Jørn Aabakken, Wesley Cole, Thomas Jenkin, Gian Porro, and Chang Liu National Renewable Energy Laboratory Francesco Ganda Argonne National Laboratory Richard Boardman Idaho National Laboratory Thomas Tarka, John Brewer, and Travis Schultz National Energy Technology Laboratory NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-67645 January 2017 Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Electricity Generation Baseline Report Jeffrey Logan, Cara Marcy, James McCall, Francisco Flores-Espino, Aaron Bloom, Jørn Aabakken, Wesley Cole, Thomas Jenkin, Gian Porro, and Chang Liu National Renewable Energy Laboratory Francesco Ganda Argonne National Laboratory Richard Boardman Idaho National Laboratory Thomas Tarka, John Brewer, and Travis Schultz National Energy Technology Laboratory Prepared under Task No. EP42.0401 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report 15013 Denver West Parkway NREL/TP-6A20-67645 Golden, CO 80401 January 2017 303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Available electronically at SciTech Connect http:/www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 OSTI http://www.osti.gov Phone: 865.576.8401 Fax: 865.576.5728 Email: [email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5301 Shawnee Road Alexandria, VA 22312 NTIS http://www.ntis.gov Phone: 800.553.6847 or 703.605.6000 Fax: 703.605.6900 Email: [email protected] Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (left to right) NREL 26173, NREL 18302, NREL 19758, NREL 29642, NREL 19795. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. Acknowledgments The authors wish to thank the Baseline Generation Team at the Office of Energy Policy and System Analysis (EPSA) in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the sponsorship and guidance on this work. Rob Anderson, Carol Battershell, Aaron Bergman, Erin Boyd, Alex Breckel, Hugh Chen, Christina Cody, Carla Frisch, Liz Hartman, Eric Hsieh, Emily Lewis, Larry Mansueti, Josh Olazabal, Jeanette Pablo (team lead), Lara Pierpoint, John Richards, and Robert Schmitt provided helpful feedback and advice during the process of producing this report. We also thank Michelle Dallafior (Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability), Paul Donohoo-Vallet (Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy), Sarah Forbes (Office of Fossil Energy), Michael Goff (Office of Nuclear Energy), Lindsey Griffith (EPSA), Elke Hodson (EPSA), Jordan Kislear (Office of Fossil Energy), Steve Lindenberg (Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy), Timothy Reinhardt (Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy), Margaret Schaus (Office of Fossil Energy), and Bradley Williams (Office of Nuclear Energy) for interim feedback and review. We also appreciate the critical reviews by the following individuals and organizations, which improved and informed the analysis contained herein: Michelle Melton (Center for Strategic and International Studies), Karl Hausker (World Resources Institute), Manuel Baritaud (International Energy Agency), Doug Smith and Sue Sheridan (Van Ness Feldman), and many individuals from the Electric Power Research Institute. Any remaining errors, omissions, or mischaracterizations are the responsibility of the authors. iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Scope and Organization This report was developed by a team of national laboratory analysts over the period October 2015 to May 2016 and is part of a series of studies that provide background material to inform development of the second installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review (QER 1.2). The report focuses specifically on U.S. power sector generation. The report limits itself to the generation sector and does not address in detail parallel issues in electricity end use, transmission and distribution, markets and policy design, and other important segments. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to the report. Chapter 2 of the report focuses on the main drivers of change, as well as future uncertainties, in the U.S. generation sector. These include the impact of low natural gas prices; the rise of renewable and distributed generation; recent Federal and State policies impacting generation; the decoupling of gross domestic product (GDP), electricity demand, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and the electrification of the transportation sector. Chapter 3 discusses crosscutting metrics and trends in the U.S. generation sector. These attributes include generation roles, capacity factors and heat rates, costs, sustainability characteristics, ownership types, and Federal policy. Chapter 4 describes recent trends in power generation, focusing on the national and regional levels at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) boundaries. Chapters 5 through 13 focus on individual generation technologies and provide information on technology cost and performance trends, fuel supply, environmental impacts, constraints, existing deployment metrics, and policy and regulatory drivers that have impacted deployment and could affect future development. Appendix A contains additional information about each generation technology. Appendix B contains details on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) methodology used in chapter 3 and throughout. iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Abbreviations AC alternating current AEO2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015 AMD acid mine drainage Btu British thermal unit BWR boiling water reactors CC combined cycle CCS carbon capture and storage CO2 carbon dioxide CPP Clean Power Plan CSP concentrating solar power CT combustion turbine CWIP construction work in progress DC direct current DOE U.S. Department of Energy EGS enhanced geothermal systems EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration (DOE) EOR enhanced oil recovery EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPRI Electric Power Research Institute EPSA Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis (DOE) ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas EV electric vehicle FERC U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FORGE Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy FRCC Florida Reliability Coordinating Council GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GW gigawatt GWd/MTU gigawatt-days per metric ton uranium GWe gigawatt electrical GWh gigawatt-hour HOGR High Oil and Gas Resource IEA International Energy Agency IGCC integrated gasification combined cycle IGCC-CCS integrated gasification combined cycle‒carbon capture and storage IOU investor-owned utility ITC investment tax credit kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour LACE levelized avoided cost of electricity LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LCOE levelized cost of electricity v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. LFG landfill gas LWR light water reactor MHK marine and hydrokinetic MISO Mid-Continent Independent System Operator MMBtu million British thermal unit MRO Midwest Reliability Organization MSW municipal solid waste MW megawatt MWe megawatt electrical MWh megawatt-hour NERC North American Electric Reliability Corporation NGCC natural gas combined cycle NGCT natural gas combustion turbine NMVOC non-methane volatile organic compound NOx nitrogen oxides NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NPCC Northeast Power Coordinating Council NYISO New York Independent System Operator O&M operation and maintenance ORNL Oak Ridge National Laboratory PC pulverized coal PEV plug-in electric vehicle PJM Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland Interconnection PMA Power Marketing Administration PPA