Local Impacts and Policy Options for North Rhine- Westphalia Work Package 9 of the study LowCarb-RFC - European Rail Freight Corridors going Carbon Neutral Dr. Agnes Eiband, Dorothe Görtz, Maximiliane Remmert, Achim Klukas Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics, IML Joseph-von-Fraunhofer-Straße 2-4, 44227 Dortmund Dr. Claus Doll, Anna Grimm, Luisa Sievers Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, ISI Breslauer Str. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe Dortmund, Karlsruhe, 26.04.2019 Project Partners: Co-funded by: Document details This document should be cited as: Eiband, Agnes et al. (2019): Local Impacts and Policy Options for North Rhine-Westphalia: Working Paper 9 of the study LowCarb-RFC - European Rail Freight Corridors going Carbon Neutral, supported by Stiftung Mercator and the European Climate Foundation, Dortmund, Karlsruhe, April 2019. Document title: Standard Lead authors: Dr. Agnes Eiband, Dorothe Görtz, Maximiliane Remmert, Achim Klukas (Fraunhofer IML), Dr. Claus Doll, Anna Grimm, Luisa Sievers (Fraunhofer ISI) Version: 1.0 Date: 26 April 2019 Status: Public Quality review: - The LowCarb RFC project: Full title: Low Carbon Rail Freight Corridors for Europe (Klimafreundlicher Güterverkehr in Europa) Duration: September 2015 – August 2018 Funding: Mercator Foundation, Essen and European Climate Fund (ECF), Brussels Contract: Mercator project number 1442800 Consortium: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe (project coordinator) Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics IML, Dortmund M-Five GmbH, Karlsruhe INFRAS AG, Zurich TPR, University of Antwerp Transport & Environment, Brussels Contact information: Contact: Dr. Claus Doll Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Str. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany Phone: +49 721 6809-354, fax: -135 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.isi.fraunhofer.de Contents 1 Executive Summary ......................................................................................... 5 2 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Context: The Low Carb-RFC Project ......................................................................... 7 2.2 Purpose of the work package ..................................................................................... 8 2.3 Scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 9 3 Status quo ......................................................................................................... 13 3.1 North Rhine-Westphalia .............................................................................................. 13 3.2 Infrastructure in North Rhine-Westphalia .................................................................. 15 3.2.1 Road ............................................................................................................................... 15 3.2.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................. 16 3.2.3 IWT ................................................................................................................................. 17 3.3 Trans-European Networks .......................................................................................... 17 3.4 Rhine - Alpine Corridor ................................................................................................ 18 3.5 North Sea - Baltic Corridor .......................................................................................... 19 4 Methodology ..................................................................................................... 23 4.1 Road ............................................................................................................................... 24 4.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................. 26 5 Initial situation .................................................................................................. 28 5.1 Road ............................................................................................................................... 28 5.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................. 30 6 Traffic development in the scenarios and impact on the infrastructure .... 34 6.1 Road ............................................................................................................................... 34 6.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................. 37 7 Derivation of concrete action recommendations .......................................... 41 7.1 Road ............................................................................................................................... 41 7.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................. 42 7.3 Reality check of infrastructural plans ......................................................................... 44 7.3.1 Ailing bridges................................................................................................................. 44 7.3.2 Implementation of expansion and new construction measures ............................ 45 7.3.3 Financing/Funding ........................................................................................................ 46 7.3.4 Infrastructure wear ....................................................................................................... 47 7.3.5 Expansion restrictions.................................................................................................. 47 7.3.6 Passing tracks............................................................................................................... 49 8 Investment needs ............................................................................................. 51 8.1 Road ............................................................................................................................... 51 8.2 Rail ................................................................................................................................. 54 8.3 Result ............................................................................................................................. 57 9 Socio-economic impacts ................................................................................. 60 9.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 60 9.1.1 Model structure ............................................................................................................. 60 9.1.2 Temporal and sectoral allocation of investments .................................................... 61 9.2 Results from modelling ................................................................................................ 65 9.2.1 Effects of road investment delta on employment .................................................... 65 9.2.2 Effects of rail investment delta on employment ....................................................... 66 9.2.3 Effects of total investment delta on employment and value added....................... 67 9.2.4 Effects of sectoral employment .................................................................................. 69 9.3 Interpretation ................................................................................................................. 71 10 Environmental and safety aspects ................................................................. 73 10.1 Scope ............................................................................................................................. 73 10.2 Method and unit values ............................................................................................... 74 10.2.1 Climate change impacts .............................................................................................. 74 10.2.2 Air pollution costs ......................................................................................................... 75 10.2.3 Noise impacts ............................................................................................................... 75 10.2.4 Traffic accidents ........................................................................................................... 76 10.3 Results ........................................................................................................................... 76 10.3.1 Climate gas emissions ................................................................................................. 76 10.3.2 Environmental and safety costs ................................................................................. 78 10.3.3 Cost efficiency ratios .................................................................................................... 79 10.4 Discussion ..................................................................................................................... 80 11 Recommendations ........................................................................................... 82 11.1 Investment needs for NRW ........................................................................................