December 2010 London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation December 2010 Consultation for Draft Utilisation Strategy Route Network Rail Kings Place 90 York Way London N1 9AG Tel: 020 3356 9595 www.networkrail.co.uk RUS142/December 2010 London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation December 2010 Term Meaning SDO Selective Door Opening – used where the whole train does not fit into a station platform to unlock only the doors at the platform. SMG Stakeholder Management Group. SOFA Statement Of Funds Available – the Government's allocation of funding for rail schemes. Network Rail bids for this funding through its Strategic Business Plan which is then reviewed and allocated by the ORR for Network Rail's next Control Period. Strategic routes Network Rail is structured for planning purposes with 17 Routes, which are aligned closely to the traffic flows in the planning areas and operation areas to enable direct use of route plans for delivery. SWML South West Main Line – the line between London Waterloo and Weymouth. TfL Transport for London. TfSH Transport for South Hampshire. Thameslink Programme Upgrade of Brighton to Bedford route to allow 12-car trains to operate, including station Key Output 1 works at London Blackfriars and Farringdon. Thameslink Programme Remodelling of London Bridge station and the eastern and western approaches, including Key Output 2 grade separation at Bermondsey and connections to the new viaduct at Borough Market. A new connection will be provided from London St Pancras International low level onto the ECML. TOC Train operating company. tph Trains per hour. TT Timetable – these are usually published in May and December. TWA Transport and Works Act orders – the usual way of authorising a new railway or tramway scheme in England and Wales. Up The direction of trains normally when travelling towards London or large urban centre where direct trains to London do not operate. WCML West Coast Main Line – the routes from London Euston to the West Midlands, North West, North Wales and Scotland. WCML DC lines Third rail electrified routes between London Euston and Watford Junction. Windsor lines Routes between London Waterloo and Reading via Twickenham and to Windsor & Eton Riverside. WLL West London Line – the line between Clapham Junction and Willesden Junction/West Coast Main Line. 25kV AC 25,000 volts alternating current is the electrical supply for the overhead electrified routes. 750V DC 750 volts direct current is the electrical supply for the third rail system. Contents 3 Foreword 4 Executive summary 19 1. Background 21 2. Scope and planning context 26 3. Current operations and train performance 36 4. Morning peak to London – current demand 46 5. Morning peak to London – committed schemes and other existing strategy 61 6. Morning peak to London – future demand 70 7. Capacity gaps and options beyond existing strategy 103 8. Network connectivity 112 9. Freight in South East England 130 10. Solent and South Hampshire 162 11. Emerging conclusions 164 12. Consultation process and next steps 165 Appendix A: Stations 172 Appendix B: Solent and South Hampshire bus services 181 Glossary 183 Foreword This London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) builds on the series of previous RUSs, published between 2005 and 2010, covering routes into and around the capital. Given the length of time which has passed since some of these earlier publications, and the current circumstances which now apply, updates are needed in several areas and this ‘Generation Two’ RUS therefore provides these. As a result it represents our latest analysis with respect to an appropriate strategy to 2031 for the South East England railway network as a whole. The RUS contains a detailed study of the South Hampshire and Solent area, which was only partially The RUS focuses on how to increase covered by the 2005 South West Main Line RUS. This rail capacity to accommodate for section has been developed closely with the local authorities and train operators using this part of the extra demand. network. There is now a 12-week consultation period on this Strategy and we welcome your comments and The RUS forecasts an increase of over 30 per cent in feedback, particularly on the interventions suggested. the numbers of commuters using National Rail services Stakeholder views will be incorporated wherever into the capital during the weekday morning peaks. possible prior to the final RUS which will be published This is linked to economic forecasts for central London in summer 2011. employment, which is expected to grow throughout the lifetime of this strategy. The RUS therefore focuses Whilst the views expressed in this document are those on how to increase rail capacity to accommodate this of Network Rail the RUS has been developed closely extra demand. This is a central theme in the document, with the Department for Transport, Transport for as is the growing role of rail freight, removing lorries London and our customers, the passenger and freight from increasingly congested roads. train operating companies, whom I thank for their involvement to date. As in all RUSs, the methodology for providing solutions to the future requirements asked of the rail network Paul Plummer requires the development of a range of options which Director, Planning and Development are subsequently tested to determine the best value for money intervention, which in turn is tested for affordability. On a small number of routes within the area covered by the London and South East RUS there remains a significant challenge to meet these criteria, and the RUS will need to assess this further as part of a wider planning context. In the shorter term the RUS is consistent with the findings of the 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review and subsequent announcements, including new train fleets of approximately 1200 carriages for Thameslink and 600 carriages for Crossrail. This RUS considers the effects of current ongoing projects such as these, but also looks beyond them to identify train service changes, infrastructure upgrades and potential new routes for the future. 3 Executive summary Introduction Since June 2005, the Network Licence has required Network Rail to publish Route Utilisation Strategies, which establish the most effective and efficient ways to use the capacity available across the network. The Network Licence requires that Network Rail maintain established RUSs – those that have been established by the Office of Rail Regulation. This has led to development of a second generation of RUSs, of which this London and the South East RUS is the third. Scope and planning context l it forecasts the growth in peak passenger demand up to 2031 in detail for all routes into This London and South East Route Utilisation the capital, an extension to some Generation Strategy (RUS) builds upon the Generation One One RUSs which only looked up to 2019. It RUSs previously produced by Network Rail between identifies the gaps between existing strategy and 2005-2010 which cover most of the area within future demand on all key corridors, and where its remit. This Generation Two RUS extends the gaps exist considers how best to bridge them strategy as follows: l the first of Network Rail’s RUSs, the South West l it looks at all corridors into London at the same Main Line, was developed as a prototype and was time and in a consistent way, so results are now produced within comparatively short timescales in directly comparable between routes order to inform the South Western re-franchising l it considers current economic conditions, process in 2006. As a result, it did not address which have changed since the time of certain parts of the network fully (eg the South earlier RUSs, impacting on demand forecasts Hampshire and Solent area), so the opportunity and affordability has been taken in this RUS to remedy this l it recognises that many infrastructure projects l several projects affecting freight are now from previous RUSs – for example platform committed, principally involving capacity lengthening, resignalling schemes and the enhancement schemes and loading gauge remodelling of capacity constraints (such as at clearance for international standard 9’6” Reading) – are now committed. It now considers containers on conventional wagons. Also these projects in more detail to identify how more is now known about freight trends and they could best facilitate the desired additional anticipated terminal developments peak capacity into the capital l the RUS recognises that the current Government l following recent Government announcements has a different policy from its predecessor with both Crossrail and the Thameslink Programme respect to the treatment of airport development are now also fully committed schemes, providing in South East England in particular, with the RUS additional north-south and east-west capacity considering options consistent with this policy and connectivity. The RUS considers whether l Government policy now includes the proposed future development of the Crossrail network in development of a High Speed Rail network from particular could assist with growth. In the longer London to the West Midlands and beyond. The term it also notes that further new cross-London RUS therefore now considers that High Speed 2 rail tunnels (such as the Chelsea-Hackney will be completed within the RUS timescales. line/Crossrail 2) might be a step up for the development of London’s rail network 4 London and South East Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation December 2010 RUS baseline – committed schemes Other existing strategy The baseline for the RUS includes committed In considering its strategy the RUS draws heavily infrastructure schemes (as defined in Network Rail’s on the interventions considered by Generation Control Period 4 (CP4) Delivery Plan, together with One RUSs, with recommendations remaining subsequent announcements by Government) and uncommitted at present in most cases carried committed service changes (as defined in franchise forward into this RUS.