Master of Engineering (Civil) ENGR9700 – Master’s Thesis BCA Assessment of Public Transport Alternatives for the Modbury Corridor Adelaide Submitted by Daniel Pece Supervised by Dr. Nicholas Holyoak and co-supervised Branko Stazic Master’s Thesis submitted to the College of Science and Engineering in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering (Civil) at Flinders University -Adelaide, Australia Submitted May 2021 Table of content Table of content ........................................................................................................................................ 2 List of figures ............................................................................................................................................. 3 List of tables .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Glossary of terms and abbreviations ......................................................................................................... i Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. vi 1. Introduction. ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Justification ................................................................................................................................. 3 1.3. Aims, Objectives and Scope ....................................................................................................... 4 2. Literature Review. ............................................................................................................................. 6 2.1. Transit Modes ............................................................................................................................. 6 2.2. Transit Performance ................................................................................................................... 8 2.3. Bus vs Rail Modes ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.4. Adelaide Public Transport System Background ....................................................................... 13 2.5. Evaluation Methods ................................................................................................................. 14 2.6. Transit System Costs................................................................................................................. 17 2.7. O’Bahn Project History ............................................................................................................. 20 2.8. Research Gap ............................................................................................................................ 26 3. Options Generation and Classification. .......................................................................................... 27 3.1. Options considered .................................................................................................................. 27 3.2. Options performance ............................................................................................................... 31 3.3. Options Capital Costs ............................................................................................................... 32 3.4. Options comparison ................................................................................................................. 36 4. Benefits and Costs identification. ................................................................................................... 40 4.1. Costs considered ...................................................................................................................... 40 4.2. Benefits considered .................................................................................................................. 40 4.3. Impacts not considered ............................................................................................................ 41 5. Transport Model. ............................................................................................................................ 42 5.1. Data collection and Scope ........................................................................................................ 42 5.2. Transport network .................................................................................................................... 44 5.3. Trip Generation ........................................................................................................................ 48 5.4. Trip Distribution, Mode Choice and Trip Assignment .............................................................. 49 6. Travel Time Savings and Congestion Function. .............................................................................. 51 6.1. Yearly variation ......................................................................................................................... 51 6.2. Weekly variation - Cars............................................................................................................. 52 6.3. Weekly variation - Transit ........................................................................................................ 54 6.4. Hourly variation - Cars .............................................................................................................. 54 6.5. Hourly variation - Transit .......................................................................................................... 57 6.6. Hourly variation - Summary ..................................................................................................... 57 6.7. Congestion function - Car ......................................................................................................... 59 6.8. Transit Travel Times ................................................................................................................. 71 6.9. Travel Time Savings calculations .............................................................................................. 74 7. Evaluation Parameters. ................................................................................................................... 78 7.1. Evaluation period ..................................................................................................................... 78 7.2. Interest rate .............................................................................................................................. 78 7.3. Transit Mode options considered ............................................................................................ 78 7.4. Transport scenarios considered ............................................................................................... 79 7.5. Value of Time and Travel Time Savings Benefits ...................................................................... 80 7.6. Capital Costs ............................................................................................................................. 81 7.7. Residual Value .......................................................................................................................... 81 7.8. Transit Operation Costs and Transit Fare Revenue.................................................................. 82 7.9. Option and Non-Use value ....................................................................................................... 82 7.10. Environmental costs reduction ............................................................................................. 84 7.11. Car operation savings ........................................................................................................... 86 8. BCA Results. .................................................................................................................................... 87 8.1. T.Scenario 1 .............................................................................................................................. 87 8.2. T.Scenario 2 .............................................................................................................................. 93 8.3. T.Scenario 3 .............................................................................................................................. 96 8.4. Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................................... 99 8.5. Evaluations comparison: Ex-Ante and Ex-Post .......................................................................100 8.6. Evaluation framework ............................................................................................................101 9. Performance Results. ....................................................................................................................102 10. Conclusions. ...............................................................................................................................106 10.1. Future research