International Master’s Program in Infrastructure Planning UNIVERSITY OF STUTTGART, GERMANY Master’s Thesis ASSESSING VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY OF FLOOD AFFECTED COMMUNITIES IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN CASE STUDY: DISTRICT JHANG AND MUZAFFARGARH Author: Ali JAMSHED Matriculation No. 2846835 Submission date: 05 November 2015 First supervisor: Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann Institute for Regional Development and Spatial Planning (IREUS) University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart Germany. Email: [email protected] Photographs: Second supervisor: Prof. Dr. Obaidullah Nadeem Left - Department of City and Regional Planning De Souza,Carl Right 2014; (DCRP) University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore Pakistan. Email: [email protected] - Mirza Hassan, 2014. Hassan, Mirza 1 Abstract ABSTRACT In Punjab, the continuous floods in the last six years especially in 2010 and 2014, due to climatic and non-climatic reasons, have exposed physical, socio-economic, and environmental vulnerabilities. The flood disaster management in Punjab is primarily focused on rescue, relief, and dependence of structural measures. The assessment of vulnerability is limited to district level (in form of mapping) which is incapable of identifying essential socio-economic drivers of vulnerability and local ability to cope and adapt. The mega flood of 2010 inflicted several changes in government structure and within communities. This research study assessed the vulnerability and capacity of flood affected communities as well as fluctuation in their vulnerability and capacity by analyzing planned and unplanned post flood responses. The study also determined the role of spatial planning in reducing flood vulnerabilities. To conduct the study, a vulnerability assessment framework was modified from sustainable livelihood and BBC framework. Qualitative and quantitative analysis and their triangulation were conducted to apprehend the pertaining issues. Interviews with officials of disaster management and spatial planning institutes were conducted to analyze changes after 2010 flood and government interventions. Participatory Rapid Appraisal (PRA) for two flood events (2010 and 2014) and household survey provided the vulnerability and capacity assessment of four flood affected communities in two severely affected districts (Jhang and Muzaffargarh) of Punjab. The concept of vulnerability syndrome provided the relationship between different community elements and factors that fluctuated vulnerability. The results indicated that government interventions were limited to financial aid and early warning. These measures remained victim to political biasness, mismanagement, and lack of coordination and communication between departments. Other formal changes (legislation, policies, plans etc.) seemed to be less effective due to top-down approach, lack of technical man power; disaster management knowledge and financial constraints. Spatial planning appeared ineffective in mitigating flood risk as it was limited to urban areas and deficient incorporation of DRR measures in development plans. The results of PRA and household survey indicated that vulnerability of immovable assets increased or remained the same after 2014 flood disaster, but reduced significantly for moveable assets. Complex relationships existed within and between various dimensions of vulnerability that fluctuated vulnerability of related elements and factors. These relationships demonstrated that lack of physical infrastructure and awareness were the key drivers of vulnerability in Punjab. Triangulation of analyses indicated similarities and differences in PRA and household survey. In spite of similarities and differences, the results indicated that capacities have been developed in communities autonomously. NGOs and media played a vital role in increasing community’s capacities especially in district Muzaffargarh. However, negative consequences of some coping and adaptation measures were observed and several social, physical, financial and institutional limitations were highlighted which increased community vulnerability in long term. Overall, the results revealed that Muzaffargarh has developed more capacities to cope and adapt to floods due to massive media and NGOs attention which is demonstrated diagrammatically in the form of recovery process. Due to several limitations, this research study could not significantly address the fluctuation in vulnerability and urgencies for capacity measures. Nevertheless, it gives an idea of what is important for community to increase its capacity and what loopholes exist in government systems that escalate community vulnerability. The research suggests implementation of second order adaptation measures to eliminate negative consequences of some capacity measures. The study underlines the importance for horizontal coordination and communication between government line departments, private organizations and communities to link formal and informal responses in order to reduce future flood vulnerabilities. I Declaration DECLARATION I hereby declare that: the thesis is the outcome of my own efforts and has not been published anywhere else before and not used in any other examination, the material and methods used and quoted in the text has been properly referenced and acknowledged, the electronic copy is consistent with the hard copy. Place and dated: Stuttgart, 05 November 2015 Signature: _______________ II Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research work is a result of coordination, contribution and assistance of many individuals. But, I start with the name of Almighty ALLAH, who granted me wisdom and insistence for completing this thesis. I would like to thank my first supervisor Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Jörn Birkmann, and, second supervisor Prof. Dr. Obaidullah Nadeem for their supervision, advice and guidance from very early stage of research. They provided me constant encouragement and supported me in various ways. I gratefully acknowledge PDMA officials: respected Mr. Ali Annan (Director PDMA), Mr. Nawaz (Director Administration), Mr. Zafar Haider Shamsi (Assistant Director Planning & Finance); officials of various spatial planning departments: Mr. Qaswer Abbas (TOP&C Muzaffargarh), Mr. Muhammad Bilal (TOP&C Hafizabad) and Mr. Zaheer Abbas (TOP&C Shorkot), Mr. Nizam ud Din (GIS Head, Urban Unit Punjab); and international and local organization officials: Mr. Muhammad Qadeer (Planning officer, Agha Khan Foundation) and Mr. Ghulam Mustafa (GIS Expert, UNOCHA) for their guidance and coordination in field surveys as well as in providing pertinent information. It is pleasure to pay tribute to my friends from district Jhang especially Mr. Shaffat Nawaz, Mr. Sajid Sial, Mr. Samar Sial, and from district Muzaffargarh Mr. Uzair Sandela and Mr. Afaq Bhatti for helping me in conducting PRA and tough field surveys. I would also like to thank Mr. Bilal Paracha for helping me in conducting interviews from various public sector and private sector institutes in Islamabad. I would also like to thank Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan and DAAD for trusting on my abilities and selecting me for the scholarship as well as for providing me the opportunity to study in one of the most prestigious institutes in Germany. Finally, I am thankful to my parents and family members who were always there for me and without their care and prayers I was unable to complete this task. Also, thanks to all those who were important in successful completion of thesis. Also, I express my apology that I could not mention every one by name. Ali JAMSHED III Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .....................................................................................................................................I DECLARATION ........................................................................................................................... II ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... III TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................ IV LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... VII LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... IX LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................ X 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem statement ......................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Research objectives ....................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Research questions ........................................................................................................ 3 1.5 Research methodology .................................................................................................. 3 1.5.1 Literature review ................................................................................................... 3 1.5.2 Selection of study areas ........................................................................................