Explaining Non-Transitions: The Strategic Behavior of Political Groups in Singapore and Hong Kong Inaugural-Dissertation in der Philosophischen Fakultät und Fachbereich Theologie der Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg vorgelegt von Stephan Ortmann (Vor- und Zuname) aus Marburg (Geburtsort) D 29 Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 15. Februar 2008 Dekan: Universitätsprofessor Dr. Jens Kulenkampff. Erstgutachter: Universitätsprofessor Dr. Mark R. Thompson Zweitgutachter: Universitätsprofessor Dr. Thomas Fröhlich Acknowledgments This book is dedicated first and foremost to my mentor, Prof. Mark R. Thompson, who has guided me through this work with dedication and hard work. Furthermore, I would like to thank Prof. Chua Beng Huat, whose comments have helped me tremendously. My thanks also go to Prof. Wang Gungwu, who invited me as a Visiting Scholar to the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore. I also need to mention Guido Haefele, who has kindly proof-read my book and given my helpful advice. Finally, I many thanks go to my wife, Hongzhuan Li, without whose support and strength I would not have been able to finish this book. Table of Contents Index of Tables......................................................................................................8 Illustration Index..................................................................................................8 List of Abbreviations.............................................................................................9 Chapter 1: Thesis Overview and Methodology .......................................................11 1.1 Hypotheses ........................................................................................................12 1.2 Methodology .....................................................................................................16 1.3 Singapore and Hong Kong: Most Similar Cases ..............................................18 1.4 Chapter Outline .................................................................................................21 Chapter 2: Democratization and the Role of Modernization.................................24 2.1 The Modernization Process...............................................................................25 2.2 The Process of Democratization........................................................................29 2.3 Modernization and Democratization.................................................................35 2.4 Modernization and Contentious Politics............................................................39 2.5 Conclusion and Outlook....................................................................................43 Chapter 3: The Political Process Model of Democratization.................................45 3.1. Ruling Elite Groups and Oppositional Groups.................................................46 3.2 Political Groups and Democratization...............................................................49 3.3 Expanding Political Opportunities and the Institutional Structure....................55 3.4 Organizational Strength.....................................................................................58 3.4.1 Members....................................................................................................59 3.4.2 Leaders.......................................................................................................60 3.4.3 The Structure of Incentives........................................................................60 3.4.4 Communication Network...........................................................................61 3.5 Changing Cognitive Perceptions and Legitimacy.............................................62 3.5.1 The “Imperial Image”: Sense of Stability and Powerlessness...................65 3.5.2 The “Colonial Image”: Superiority............................................................66 3.5.3 The Role of Legitimacy.............................................................................67 3.6 The Goals and Tactics of Elite Groups..............................................................72 3.7 The Goals and Tactics of Challenger Groups....................................................74 3.8 Conclusion and Outlook....................................................................................76 Chapter 4: Expanding Political Opportunities and Limiting Institutional Structures in Hong Kong in the 1970s......................................................................80 4.1 Expanding Political Opportunities.....................................................................81 4.1.1 Decolonization without Independence and Democratization....................82 4.1.2 Economic Modernization...........................................................................86 4.1.3 Significance of the 1966 and 1967 Riots ..................................................88 4.2 The Institutional Structure.................................................................................92 1 4.2.1. Hong Kong’s Bureaucratic Regime..........................................................93 4.2.2. Legislative and Executive Councils..........................................................95 4.2.3 Civil Liberties and Restrictions.................................................................97 4.2.4 An Independent Judiciary?.........................................................................99 4.2.5 The Urban Council – Democratic Islet in a Non-Competitive Political System...............................................................................................................102 4.3. Explaining Political Stability..........................................................................105 4.4. Summary and Outlook....................................................................................109 Chapter 5: Expanding Political Opportunities and Limiting Institutional Structures in Singapore............................................................................................111 5.1 Expanding Political Opportunities...................................................................112 5.1.1 The Birth of a Nation and the Fight for Survival.....................................113 5.1.2 Economic Modernization.........................................................................118 5.1.3 The Significance of J.B. Jeyaretnam’s Victory in 1981...........................121 5.2 The Institutional Structure...............................................................................125 5.2.1 Singapore’s Bureaucratic Regime............................................................126 5.2.2 State Corporatism in Singapore...............................................................129 5.2.3 Laws and Regulations – Singapore as a “fine city”.................................135 5.2.4 An Independent Judiciary?.......................................................................139 5.2.5 Elections and Opposition in a Singaporean Democracy..........................143 5.3 Explaining Political Stability...........................................................................146 5.4 Summary and Outlook.....................................................................................150 Chapter 6: The Behavior of Ruling Elite Groups in Hong Kong.........................152 6.1 Ruling Elite Groups in Hong Kong.................................................................153 6.2 Organizational Strength...................................................................................154 6.2.1 Members..................................................................................................154 6.2.2 Leaders.....................................................................................................156 6.2.3 Incentives: Reasons for Group Cohesion.................................................158 6.2.4 Communication Network.........................................................................160 6.3 Cognitive Perceptions and Legitimacy............................................................163 6.3.1 A Sense of Superiority and Self-Confidence...........................................164 6.3.2 Proxy Paternalism and Small Government..............................................168 6.3.3 Performance Legitimacy between Success and Failure...........................170 6.4 Goals................................................................................................................172 6.4.1. Progressive Goals: From Status-Quo to Improving the Society ............172 6.4.2 Conservative Goals: Maintaining the Status Quo....................................175 6.5 Tactics..............................................................................................................177 6.5.1 Moderate Tactics: Co-option of Opposition and Willingness to Compromise......................................................................................................177 6.5.2 Extreme Tactics: Secretive Control of Dissent........................................182 6.6 Conclusion and Outlook..................................................................................186 2 Chapter 7: The Behavior of Ruling Elite Groups in Singapore...........................188 7.1 Ruling Elite Groups in Singapore....................................................................188 7.2 Organizational Strength...................................................................................190 7.2.1