Democracy Index 2020 In sickness and in health? A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit www.eiu.com The world leader in global business intelligence The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper. Created in 1946, we have over 70 years’ experience in helping businesses, financial firms and governments to understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. Given that many of the issues facing the world have an international (if not global) dimension, The EIU is ideally positioned to be commentator, interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace and impact. EIU subscription services The world’s leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data, analysis and forecasts to keep them informed about what is happening around the world. 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Through a distinctive blend of interactive conferences, specially designed events, C-suite discussions, member briefings, and high-calibre research, The Economist Corporate Network delivers a range of macro (global, regional, national, and territorial) as well as industry-focused analysis on prevailing conditions and forecast trends. DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020 IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH? Contents List of tables and charts 2 Introduction 3 Democracy Index 2020 highlights 6 Democracy: in sickness and in health? 14 Democracy around the regions in 2020 26 Asia and Australasia 28 Eastern Europe 32 Latin America 36 Middle East and North Africa 40 North America 42 Sub-Saharan Africa 47 Western Europe 50 Appendix 54 Defining and measuring democracy 54 Methodology 56 The Economist Intelligence Unit model 59 References and bibliography 69 1 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021 DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020 IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH? List of tables and charts Table 1. Democracy Index 2020, by regime type Chart 1. Democracy Index 2020, global map by regime type Table 2. Democracy Index 2020 Chart 2. Downgrades to Q57: “Extent to which citizens enjoy personal freedoms” Chart 3. Downgrades to Q24: “Perceptions of the extent to which citizens have free choice and control over their lives” Chart 4. Evolution of democracy by category, 2008-20 Table 3. Democracy Index 2006-20 Table 4. Democracy across the regions Table 5. Democracy Index 2006-20 by region Table 6. Asia & Australasia 2020 Chart 5. Asia & Australasia: Democracy Index 2020 by category Table 7. Eastern Europe 2020 Chart 6. Eastern Europe: Democracy Index 2020 by category Chart 7. Latin America: Democracy Index 2020 by category Table 8. Latin America and the Caribbean 2020 Chart 8. Middle East and North Africa: Democracy Index 2020 by category Table 9. Middle East and North Africa 2020 Table 10. North America 2020 Chart 9. US & Canada: Democracy Index 2020 by category Chart 10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Democracy Index 2020 by category Table 11. Sub-Saharan Africa 2020 Table 12. Western Europe 2020 Chart 11. Western Europe: Democracy Index 2020 by category 2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021 DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020 IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH? Introduction The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index provides a snapshot of the state of democracy worldwide in 165 independent states and two territories. This covers almost the entire population of the world and the vast majority of the world’s states (microstates are excluded). The Democracy Index is based on five categories:electoral process and pluralism, the functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties. Based on its scores on a range of indicators within these categories, each country is then itself classified as one of four types of regime: “full democracy”, “flawed democracy”, “hybrid regime” or “authoritarian regime”. A full methodology and explanations can be found in the Appendix. This is the 13th edition of the Democracy Index, which began in 2006, and it records how global democracy fared in 2020. The main focus of the report is the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on democracy and freedom around the world. It looks at how the pandemic resulted in the withdrawal of civil liberties on a massive scale and fuelled an existing trend of intolerance and censorship of dissenting opinion (see page 14). The report also examines the state of US democracy after a tumultuous year dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, the Black Lives Matter movement and a hotly contested presidential election (see page 42). The results by region are analysed in greater detail in the section entitled “Democracy around the regions in 2020” (see page 26). Table 1. Democracy Index 2020, by regime type No. of countries % of countries % of world population Full democracies 23 13.8 8.4 Flawed democracies 52 31.1 41.0 Hybrid regimes 35 21.0 15.0 Authoritarian regimes 57 34.1 35.6 Note. “World” population refers to the total population of the 167 countries covered by the Index. Since this excludes only micro states, this is nearly equal to the entire estimated world population. Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. According to our measure of democracy, only about half (49.4%) of the world’s population live in a democracy of some sort, and even fewer (8.4%) reside in a “full democracy”; this level is up from 5.7% in 2019, as several Asian countries have been upgraded. More than one-third of the world’s population live under authoritarian rule, with a large share being in China. In the 2020 Democracy Index, 75 of the 167 countries and territories covered by the model, or 44.9% of the total, are considered to be democracies. The number of “full democracies” increased to 23 in 2020, up from 22 in 2019. The number of “flawed democracies” fell by two, to 52. Of the remaining 92 countries in our index, 57 are “authoritarian regimes”, up from 54 in 2019, and 35 are classified as “hybrid regimes”, down from 37 in 2019. (For a full explanation of the index methodology and categories, see page 56.) 3 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2021 DEMOCRACY INDEX 2020 IN SICKNESS AND IN HEALTH? The global average score hit an all-time low As recorded in the Democracy Index in recent years, democracy has not been in robust health for some time. In 2020 its strength was further tested by the outbreak of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. The average global score in the 2020 Democracy Index fell from 5.44 in 2019 to 5.37. This is by far the worst global score since the index was first produced in 2006. The 2020 result represents a significant deterioration and came about largely—but not solely—because of government-imposed restrictions on individual freedoms and civil liberties that occurred across the globe in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Chart 1. Democracy Index 2020, global map by regime type Hong Kong Full democracies 9.0 – 10.0 8.0 – 9.0 Flawed democracies 7.0 – 8.0 Singapore 6.0 – 7.0 Hybrid regimes 5.0 – 6.0 4.0 – 5.0 Authoritarian regimes 3.0 – 4.0 2.0 – 3.0 0 – 2.0 No data Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. The deterioration in the global score in 2020 was driven by a decline in the average regional score everywhere in the world, but by especially large falls in the “authoritarian regime”-dominated regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Their scores declined by 0.10 and 0.09, respectively, between 2019 and 2020. Western Europe and eastern Europe both recorded a fall in their average regional scores of 0.06. The score for Asia and Australasia, the region which has made the most democratic progress during the lifetime of the Democracy Index, fell by 0.05. Latin America’s average score declined by 0.04 in 2020, marking the fifth consecutive year of regression for the region. The average score for North America fell by only 0.01, but a bigger decline of 0.04 in the US score was masked by an improvement in Canada’s score.