MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS GAPS ASSESSMENT REPORT FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF DOMINICA, 2018 MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS GAPS REPORT: DOMINICA, 2018 Led by Dominica Emergency Management Organisation Director Mr. Fitzroy Pascal Author Gelina Fontaine (Local Consultant) National coordination John Walcott (UNDP Barbados & OECS) Marlon Clarke (UNDP Barbados & OECS) Regional coordination Janire Zulaika (UNDP – LAC) Art and design: Beatriz H.Perdiguero - Estudio Varsovia This document covers humanitarian aid activities implemented with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein should not be taken, in any way, to reflect the official opinion of the European Union, and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains. UNDP CDEMA IFRC ECHO United Nations Caribbean Disaster International Federation European Civil Protection Development Emergency of the Red Cross and and Humanitarian Programme Management Agency Red Crescent Societies Aid Operations Map of Dominica. (Source Jan M. Lindsay, Alan L. Smith M. John Roobol and Mark V. Stasiuk Dominica, Chapter for Volcanic Hazards Atlas) CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary 2 2. Dominica Context 6 3. MHEWS Capacity and Assets 16 4. MHEWS Specific Gaps As It Relates To International Standards 24 27 4.1 Disaster Risk Knowledge Gaps DOMINICA OF 4.2 Disaster Risk Knowledge Recommendations 30 4.3 Gaps in detection, monitoring, analysis and forecasting 31 4.4 Recommendations for detection, monitoring, analysis and forecasting 35 4.5 Warning Dissemination and Communication Gaps 36 4.6 Recommendations for Warning Dissemination and Communication 38 4.7 Gaps in Preparedness and Response Capabilities 39 4.8 Recommendations for Preparedness and Response Capabilities 14 5. Systemic Gaps and Recommendations 15 6. Conclusion 51 7. Acronyms 54 8. References 56 9. Annexes 58 9.1 Annex 1. EWS Survey Findings 59 List of Tables t.1 Potential Hazards to Dominica 8 t.2 Disaster History of Dominica from 1920 – 2017 10 t.3 History of Volcanic Events in Dominica 13 t.4 Dominica National Emergency Planning Organization 17 t.5 Document Inventory 19 t.6 Early Warning Systems tools/resources nationally 21 t.7 Regional Early Warning Systems Support 23 t.8 Organization Culture and Readiness 43 MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS GAPS ASSESSMENT REPORT FOR THE COMMONWEALTH THE COMMONWEALTH FOR REPORT ASSESSMENT GAPS SYSTEMS WARNING EARLY MULTI-HAZARD 1 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF DOMINICA OF The Commonwealth of Dominica ranks 12th out of 111 in the Composite Vulnerability Index (Commonwealth Library), and 21 out of 182 on the Climate Risk Index (climatewatchdata.org). Dominica is highly susceptible to natural hazards in particular and has recently faced some eye opening experiences due to the frequent and highly intense hydro-meteorological events such as Tropical Storm Erika (2015) and Category 5 Hurricane Maria (2017) within the last three years. Accumulated losses will require years and recovery costs of over EC$4 billion. An increase in disaster events is predicted by most scientist who have been studying and monitoring global changes in Climate, and Dominica and the Caribbean islands are not exempted from the projected brunt of what may come. Due to Dominica’s rugged terrain, it’s precarious location near the border of two tectonic plates and centered in the Hurricane Belt, including its small economies of scale, if the island is to survive and thrive it must imbed Disaster Risk Reduction and particularly Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems as a priority through every sector, strategy and agenda that impacts the lives of its people. To assist Dominica in strengthening its resilience to hazards, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the International Federation of the Red Cross and five countries in the Caribbean including the Government of Dominica have created a partnership to ‘Strengthen Integrated Early Warning Systems (EWS) for more effective disaster risk reduction in the Caribbean through knowledge and tool transfer.’ Other countries involved include Antigua and Barbuda, St.Vincent and the Grenadines, St.Lucia and the Dominican Republic. This initiative is funded by DIPECHO at a cost of USD1.2 Million, and the initial implementation period is 18 months (until February 2019). The initiative seeks to ‘Improve EWS for more effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in the Caribbean, and to move toward the realization of a more integrated system, through concrete actions addressing existing gaps. The core anticipated results include: 1. Increased access to existing tools and knowledge of EWS at a national and regional level; 2. Provision of integrated EWS solutions in five target countries through knowledge sharing; MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS GAPS ASSESSMENT REPORT FOR THE COMMONWEALTH THE COMMONWEALTH FOR REPORT ASSESSMENT GAPS SYSTEMS WARNING EARLY MULTI-HAZARD 3 3. Increased EWS effectiveness in five target countries through concrete priority actions; 4. EWS knowledge transfer, documentation and communication These results are expected to be generated by these five main concrete activities: 1. Development of an EWS checklist 2. EWS gap review and validation in countries 3. Field visit by experts 4. Identification of EWS tools that respond to gaps 5. Designing or revision of tools to offer a solutions package During the months of April to May 2017, the island of Dominica completed its Gap review of its Early Warning Systems and this report was produced to inform the Government of Dominica, key partners and stakeholders and a delegation of EWS experts from Cuba on critical gaps and recommendations towards DOMINICA OF advancing Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in Dominica. Representatives from multiple sectors in Dominica that have varying levels of responsibilities as it relates to Early Warning Systems gave input to the process by participating in an online survey of the EWS checklist and contributing to a national workshop to validate the survey findings. The major findings are detailed within this report and some of the major gaps identified related to enactment and enforcement of legislation and policy, inadequate risk analysis and emergency planning, inadequate Early Warning Systems, insufficient human capacity and cultural readiness and insufficient access to sustainable resources. Key recommendations include the prioritization and harmonization of EWS and all the regulations, coordinated and integrated processes, resources and facilities needed to make things work; the modernization of Early Warning Systems tools and equipment, the contextualization of EWS to individual and community needs and the mobilization and economization of sustainable resources needed to provide and sustain the best of Early Warning Systems. The Office of Disaster Management (ODM) in Dominica is leading the enhancement of this initiative locally and is building off of related activities years prior. These included: 1. Caribbean Disaster Management 3 year Project which placed focus on Hazard Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment, Flood Management, Community Disaster Planning, Early Warning System, Climate Change, Knowledge Enhancement. 2. Project which installed instruments to strengthen earthquake monitoring in June 2014 with support of the UWI Seismic Research Centre (UWI-SRC) and funded by the Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF). 3. Two DIPECHO pilot projects completed in Dominica; the Common Alert Protocol (CAP) and the Community Alert Project for Portsmouth. The understanding of Hazards and Early Warning Systems is essential to provide a basic context to identified gaps and recommendations in this report: MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS GAPS ASSESSMENT REPORT FOR THE COMMONWEALTH THE COMMONWEALTH FOR REPORT ASSESSMENT GAPS SYSTEMS WARNING EARLY MULTI-HAZARD 4 “Hazards can be divided into quick onset and slow onset hazards. They can also be divided into short, medium and long-term hazards and into geological, hydrometeorological, anthropogenic (human-induced), technological, biological (e.g., viruses, mosquitoes...) and space-related hazards (e.g., meteors, solar wind storms). Geological hazards generally include the quick onset kind: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, mudslides, tsunamis, though there are ways to look at them as the end result of incremental processes that are being monitored rather than as the abrupt shocking events that they seem to be (Types of Early Warning Systems, Kelman 2003)”. “Slow-onset (creeping environmental and societal) changes eventually cause serious problems to environment and for society, if left unaddressed. Most environmental problems in which people are implicated are of the creeping kind: soil erosion, land fill, deforestation, rangeland degradation, various aspects of desertification, air pollution, acid rain, ozone depletion, and global warming are examples of creeping environmental problems. Such environmental changes are in need of early warning systems because the impacts of incremental cumulative changes on society and environment in the long run DOMINICA OF may be more costly and more disruptive than the quick onset hazardous events, though both kinds are devastating in their own ways (Types of Early Warning Systems, Kelman 2003)” A Multi-Hazard Early Warning System is defined as “an integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication