Grand River Source Protection Area Approved Assessment Report TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.0 WATERSHED CHARACTERIZATION ........................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Lake Erie Source Protection Region ......................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Grand River Source Protection Area ......................................................................... 2-1 2.3 Population, Population Density and Future Projections ............................................. 2-2 2.4 Physiography .......................................................................................................... 2-11 2.4.1 Dundalk Till Plain ..................................................................................... 2-11 2.4.2 Stratford Till Plain .................................................................................... 2-11 2.4.3 Hillsburg Sandhills ................................................................................... 2-12 2.4.4 Guelph Drumlin Field ............................................................................... 2-12 2.4.5 Horseshoe Moraines ............................................................................... 2-12 2.4.6 Waterloo Hills .......................................................................................... 2-13 2.4.7 Flamborough Plain .................................................................................. 2-13 2.4.8 Norfolk Sand Plain ................................................................................... 2-13 2.4.9 Oxford Till Plain ....................................................................................... 2-14 2.4.10 Mount Elgin Ridges ................................................................................. 2-14 2.4.11 Haldimand Clay Plain .............................................................................. 2-14 2.5 Ground Surface Topography ................................................................................... 2-16 2.5.1 Bedrock Topography ............................................................................... 2-16 2.6 Geology .................................................................................................................. 2-20 2.6.1 Bedrock Geology ..................................................................................... 2-20 2.6.2 Queenston Formation .............................................................................. 2-20 2.6.3 Clinton–Cataract Group ........................................................................... 2-20 2.6.4 Gasport Formation................................................................................... 2-21 2.6.5 Goat Island Formation ............................................................................. 2-21 2.6.6 Eramosa Formation ................................................................................. 2-21 2.6.7 Guelph Formation .................................................................................... 2-21 2.6.8 Salina Formation ..................................................................................... 2-22 2.6.9 Bass Islands–Bertie Formation ................................................................ 2-22 2.6.10 Bois Blanc Formation .............................................................................. 2-22 2.6.11 Oriskany Formation ................................................................................. 2-22 2.6.12 Onondaga – Amherstburg Formation ...................................................... 2-22 2.6.13 Bedrock Surface ...................................................................................... 2-23 2.7 Quaternary Geology ................................................................................................ 2-23 2.8 Groundwater ........................................................................................................... 2-29 August 16, 2019 TOC-1 Grand River Source Protection Area Approved Assessment Report 2.8.1 Hydrogeology .......................................................................................... 2-29 2.8.2 Bedrock Aquifers ..................................................................................... 2-29 2.8.3 Overburden Aquifers ............................................................................... 2-30 2.8.4 Regional Groundwater Static Water Levels and Flow Directions ............. 2-30 2.8.5 Specific Capacity ..................................................................................... 2-31 2.8.6 Major Groundwater Recharge Areas ....................................................... 2-34 2.8.7 Major Groundwater Discharge Areas ....................................................... 2-34 2.8.8 Surface and Groundwater Interactions .................................................... 2-34 2.9 Groundwater Quality Across the Watershed ........................................................... 2-36 2.9.1 Regional Groundwater Quality Conditions and Trends ............................ 2-36 2.10 Climate in the Grand River Watershed .................................................................... 2-41 2.10.1 Dundalk Uplands ..................................................................................... 2-41 2.10.2 Huron and South Slopes ......................................................................... 2-41 2.10.3 Lake Erie Counties .................................................................................. 2-43 2.10.4 Precipitation Trends ................................................................................. 2-43 2.10.5 Extreme Weather .................................................................................... 2-44 2.11 Land Cover in the Grand River Watershed ............................................................. 2-44 2.11.1 Forest and Vegetation Cover ................................................................... 2-44 2.11.2 Wetlands ................................................................................................. 2-46 2.12 Surface Water ......................................................................................................... 2-51 2.12.1 Surface Water Characterization ............................................................... 2-51 2.12.2 Surface Water Monitoring ........................................................................ 2-51 2.12.3 Upper Grand River .................................................................................. 2-51 2.12.4 Conestogo River ...................................................................................... 2-53 2.12.5 Speed and Eramosa Rivers ..................................................................... 2-53 2.12.6 Central Grand .......................................................................................... 2-56 2.12.7 Nith River ................................................................................................ 2-57 2.12.8 Whitemans, Fairchild and McKenzie Creeks............................................ 2-59 2.12.9 Lower Grand River .................................................................................. 2-61 2.12.10 Water Control Structures ......................................................................... 2-64 2.13 Surface Water Quality ............................................................................................. 2-66 2.13.1 Upper Grand River .................................................................................. 2-72 2.14 Central Grand River ................................................................................................ 2-73 2.14.1 Conestogo River ...................................................................................... 2-78 2.14.2 Speed River............................................................................................. 2-78 August 16, 2019 TOC-2 Grand River Source Protection Area Approved Assessment Report 2.14.3 Nith River ................................................................................................ 2-78 2.15 Lower Grand River .................................................................................................. 2-79 2.16 Aquatic Habitat ....................................................................................................... 2-81 2.16.1 Upper Grand River Sub-basin ................................................................. 2-81 2.16.2 Middle Grand River Sub-basin ................................................................. 2-81 2.16.3 Southern Grand River Sub-basin ............................................................. 2-82 2.17 Species at Risk ....................................................................................................... 2-84 2.18 Interactions Between Human and Physical Geography ........................................... 2-87 2.19 Watershed Characterization Data Gaps .................................................................. 2-88 3.0 PART 1 - WATER QUANTITY RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................. 3-1 3.1 Tier 2 Water Budget .................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Water Use ................................................................................................................. 3-3 3.2.1 Municipal and First Nations Systems ......................................................... 3-4 3.2.2 Municipal and First Nations Systems outside of the