April 2010 Restructuring the Australian Economy to Emit Less Carbon: Detailed Analysis John Daley and Tristan Edis Restructuring the Australian economy to emit less carbon – detailed analysis Founding members Senior Institutional Grattan Institute Report No. 2010-2 April 2010 Affiliates This report of detailed analysis accompanies a publication: National Australia Bank Restructuring the Australian economy to emit less carbon: main report . The main report can be downloaded from the Grattan Institute website This report was written by John Daley, CEO, and Tristan Edis, Research Fellow. Katherine Molyneux, Helen Morrow, Marcus Walsh and Julian Reichl provided extensive research assistance and made substantial contributions to the report. We would like to thank the members of Grattan Institute’s Energy Reference Group for their helpful comments, as well as numerous industry participants and officials for their input. The opinions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Grattan Institute’s founding members, Institutional Affiliates affiliates, individual board members or reference group members. Any remaining errors or omissions are the responsibility of the Arup authors. Urbis Grattan Institute is an independent think-tank focused on Australian public policy. Our work is thoughtful, evidence-based, and non-aligned. We aim to improve policy outcomes by engaging with both decision-makers and the community. For further information on Grattan Institute’s Energy program please go to: http://www.grattan.edu.au/programs/energy.php To join our mailing list please go to: http://www.grattan.edu.au/signup.html GRATTAN Institute 2010 2 Restructuring the Australian economy to emit less carbon – detailed analysis Table of Contents 1. Scope and methodology......................................................4 2. Principles of government support for affected industries.....9 3. Alumina Refining ...............................................................14 4. Liquefied Natural Gas........................................................19 5. Coal Mining........................................................................32 6. Raw steel production .........................................................44 7. Cement clinker...................................................................54 8. Aluminium Smelting...........................................................64 9. Oil Refining........................................................................76 10. Households........................................................................86 11. Glossary ............................................................................90 12. References ........................................................................92 GRATTAN Institute 2010 3 Restructuring the Australian economy to emit less carbon – detailed analysis 1. Scope and methodology 1.1 Scope legal forms may converge, particularly if tax rates are adjusted in light of actual emissions, or cap and trade schemes include floor This report focuses on the impact of carbon pricing on Australian and ceiling prices. 2 However, the optimal legal regime for carbon industry and households, understanding how carbon pricing will pricing is beyond the scope of this report. The primary impact on affect their costs and competitiveness. It does this through industry will probably be the level of the carbon price, rather than adopting a carbon price reflective of what is likely to occur over whether that level is set by a tax, or by a cap and trade scheme. the next 10 years according to Australian Treasury modelling - 1 $35 per tonne of CO 2. The precise form of carbon trading scheme may have a more subtle effect on the economy, by creating additional uncertainty The report does not investigate: about future profits. There is more certainty if the carbon price is fixed (or at least bounded by a cap and floor), and if there is • The merits of pricing carbon through a tax rather than a cap greater legislative commitment not to change the scheme for an and trade scheme extended time period. Normally uncertainty will be reflected by a higher cost of capital. Uncertainty may also result in high cost but • Dynamic interactions when carbon pricing causes an industry low emissions producers not investing until it is clear that carbon to reduce production, potentially reducing carbon pricing prices will be above a certain level, while low cost but high emission producers do not invest until it is clear that carbon prices • The impacts of carbon pricing on the cost of capital will be below a threshold. This is a particular issue for electricity generation. 3 However, modelling the impacts of this kind of • Support for the electricity industry aimed at ensuring uncertainty is beyond the scope of this report, which focuses on continuous supply the static price impacts of a carbon scheme. These are all important issues, but beyond our core focus: what 1.1.1 Sectors examined would be the static impact of a carbon price on the costs and competitiveness of Australian industry and households In addition to looking at the impact on households, this report analyses in detail the effect of a carbon price on Australian This report is relevant whether carbon pricing is imposed through production facilities exposed to international competition in the a tax or through a cap and trade scheme. In practice, these 2 Hepburn (2006) 1 Australian Government Treasury (2008) 3 International Energy Agency (2007b) GRATTAN Institute 2010 4 Restructuring the Australian economy to emit less carbon – detailed analysis following industries that will be recipients of free carbon emission worthwhile in the area of chemicals and non-ferrous metal permits worth several billion dollars: smelting (other than Aluminium). • Alumina refining Nonetheless the scope of industries analysed in this study represents 70% of emissions from the emissions intensive and • Coal mining, in particular black coal trade exposed sector of the economy and around a fifth of Australia’s entire greenhouse gas emissions (including their • Liquefied Natural Gas production indirect emissions from electricity consumption. In addition two of the sectors – coal and LNG - are expected to experience • Steel production substantial growth over the next ten years. • Cement clinker production 1.2 Methodology • Aluminium smelting This report looks at the static impact of a carbon price on the costs and competitiveness of Australian industry and households. • Oil refining This approach is deliberately simple and readily transparent. Other industries will also see cost increases as a result of a This static form of analysis is intuitively easier to understand than carbon price, however for most this cost increase will be only dynamic models that are more sophisticated in capturing the small. For some of the industries where the cost increase is more interactions between sectors, but require more complex workings significant, particularly electricity generation and water supply, and assumptions. Carbon pricing may interact dynamically with they are not exposed to international competition and hence will the economy. For example, with a cap and trade scheme, if a face the same regulatory requirement as their competitors. They high emissions industry reduces production, the price of carbon will have the potential to pass on a substantial proportion of the permits would fall for other emitters. With our static analysis, we carbon cost to their customers through higher prices and any have not attempted to model these dynamic interactions, although adjustment will be constrained to movements in production and the results of our static analysis may be useful for building this jobs between facilities within Australia. The remaining industries kind of dynamic model. which are exposed to international competition, and would see significant increase in costs are worthy of analysis. However most Ultimately both static and dynamic analyses are valuable in of these industries are small (in some cases only one facility) and understanding the impact of carbon pricing. This report’s analysis their relative impact on Australia’s emissions is minor which led to should be seen as a complement rather than a replacement for their exclusion from scope. Future study would be most GRATTAN Institute 2010 5 Restructuring the Australian economy to emit less carbon – detailed analysis dynamic modelling exercises such as the Australian • make production unviable (costs would exceed revenue or Government’s Treasury modelling of the CPRS. margins would be reduced to such an extent that they would insufficient to support ongoing investment and cover In our static analysis the assessment process is quite simple and depreciation); readily replicated by others. The aim is to assist in creating a more informed and participatory debate where argument centres • lead to a substantial deterioration in production cost on objective physical characteristics of actual facilities and competitive position relative to facilities overseas on markets, rather than abstract theoretical assumptions for which international cost curves; or agreement may never be reached. • make investment in a new production facility unviable in the For households, we have identified the average current emissions case of LNG (because the additional carbon cost would intensity of the delivered energy goods they purchase – petrol, substantially change the economics and risk of the project electricity