LAND USE PATTERNS AND CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS ASSESSMENT IN ANGAT RIVER MUNICIPALITIES: THE CASE OF PULILAN AND PLARIDEL ____________________ A Thesis Submitted to The Graduate School of Bulacan State University ____________________ In Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for For the Degree of Masterin Public Administration ____________________ by RELLIE I. LEGASPI July2014 22 ABSTRACT This study examines the contributions of land use patterns to climate-related disaster risks in riverfront settlements. It fills existing knowledge gaps in the understanding of land use and climate risks linkages by providing site specific empirical data and analysis. Using river fronting settlements in two municipalities along Angat River located in Bulacan, Philippines as case studies, it analyses how the human settlements, built environments and socio-economic development around the River create complex contributions to flooding, soil erosion and other disaster-related hazards that are exacerbated by the detrimental effects of the global climate change phenomenon as well as current political and institutional arrangements at the municipal and village levels. Using concurrent or parallel mixed methods research designed for triangulation and analysis of combined quantitative and qualitative findings, particularly through detailed use of GIS information, this study identifies how adequate land use planning and related administrative functions can be potent tools in addressing climate-related risks in riverfront areas. It uncovers the differential impacts of climate risks on current land use patterns at the municipal and village scales. It also examines the current institutional context and challenges, particularly the policies and performance of the local governments, in reducing the risks of the Angat River-fronting settlements. These institutional policies and performance include the formulation and implementation of disaster preparedness plans, adaptation measures, resource mobilization, and response strategies related to land use in river areas highly exposed to climate risks. This study contributes to improved local governance by providing recommendations for developing the capabilities of local administration for community-based risk reduction and management through improved land use planning and implementation. 33 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................. 2 I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 10 Background of the Study ............................................................................................... 10 Statement of the Research Problem and Research Objectives ..................................... 13 Significance of the Research......................................................................................... 15 II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE ................................................................ 17 Tragedy of the Commons, IWRM and Collaborative Governance............................... 17 Factors Affecting and Affected by Watershed Activities............................................... 19 Community Adaptation to Impacts of Land Use Change and Other Factors............... 20 Scalar Analysis of Land-Use Patterns and Climate Change........................................ 21 Land-Use and Land Cover Changes Impacts on the Environment............................... 21 Research Gaps to be Filled by This Research .............................................................. 21 III. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 23 Conceptual-Analytical Framework............................................................................... 23 Methods and Techniques of the Study........................................................................... 25 Sources of Quantitative and Qualitative Data.............................................................. 25 Procedures in Data Gathering...................................................................................... 27 Research Instruments.................................................................................................... 28 Data Processing and Analysis ...................................................................................... 28 Hypothesis and Arguments of the Study........................................................................ 29 Definition of Terms ....................................................................................................... 30 Limitations of the Research .......................................................................................... 32 IV. PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA...................................... 33 A. Land Use Patterns and Policies in Plaridel and Pulilan, Bulacan ...................... 33 Research Sites ....................................................................................................... 33 General Land Use Patterns .................................................................................. 35 The Focus of the Study.......................................................................................... 37 Determining the extent of land use patterns within the subject area.................... 41 Records of Land Uses as of 1990/ 2000 and 2010 ............................................... 42 Comprehensive Land Use Plans ........................................................................... 46 44 Land Use Patterns................................................................................................. 50 Existing Land Use Policies and Zoning Ordinances ............................................ 51 B. Climate Related Risks in Bulacan: Patterns in Plaridel and Pulilan.................. 58 Climate Profile of the Research Sites ................................................................... 58 Climate Change Projection................................................................................... 62 Climate-Change Related Hazards ........................................................................ 66 Disaster Risks Aalong the Angat River Sub-Basin of the Pampanga River Basin 68 Susceptibility to Climate-Change Related Hazards of the Study Area................. 72 Records of Climate Related Disasters in the study area....................................... 80 C. How Land Use Patterns Exacerbate Climate Related Risks and Disasters in Plaridel and Pulilan...................................................................................................... 83 Disaster Risks Assessment Procedures................................................................. 83 Flooding Hazard Characterization....................................................................... 84 Estimated Flood Return Period ............................................................................ 86 Risk Assessment on Population............................................................................. 88 Vulnerability of Exposed Population.................................................................... 97 Risk Assessment on Properties............................................................................ 102 Trends of the Assessment Results........................................................................ 108 D. Analysis Of Contributing Issues To Disaster Risks Concerning Land Use........ 110 Informal Settlements ........................................................................................... 110 Waste Management and River Siltation.............................................................. 116 Riverbank Erosion .............................................................................................. 121 Institutional Capacity.......................................................................................... 124 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................... 133 Revisiting the Research Questions.............................................................................. 133 Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 136 Areas of Future Research ........................................................................................... 139 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................... 142 ANNEXES ........................................................................................................................... 144 55 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1:Conceptual-Analytical Framework ................................................................... 24 Figure 2:Administrative Map – Province of Bulacan....................................................... 34 Figure 3: General Land Use Map 1997 – Plaridel and Pulilan....................................... 36 Figure 4: General Land Use Map 2007 – Plaridel and Pulilan....................................... 37 Figure 5:Barangays from Municipalities of Plaridel and Pulilan ................................... 38 Figure 6:Base Map – Riverfront Barangays of Plaridel and Pulilan .............................. 40 Figure 7:Base Map – Riverfront Barangays with Satellite Image ................................... 41 Figure 8:River Distance Zone Map .................................................................................